oxfordshire economic assessment · 1.2 the oxfordshire local enterprise partnership this latest...

Oxfordshire Economic Assessment Analysis of Data and Evidence

Last updated 28th January 2011

Oxfordshire Economic Assessment


CONTENTS

1 Introduction to the Economic Assessment .......................................................................... 4

1.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 4

1.2 The Oxfordshire Local Enterprise Partnership .............................................................. 4

1.3 Future work on economic evidence .............................................................................. 5

2 Summary of key findings ..................................................................................................... 6

2.1 Overview ....................................................................................................................... 6

2.2 Issues and challenges .................................................................................................. 7

3 Oxfordshire at a glance ....................................................................................................... 9

4 Oxfordshire in Context ...................................................................................................... 10

4.1 Geography .................................................................................................................. 10

4.2 Size of the economy ................................................................................................... 13

5 Enterprise and Business ................................................................................................... 17

5.1 Number and type of businesses ................................................................................. 17

5.2 Key employment sectors - overview ........................................................................... 22

5.3 Knowledge Intensive sectors ...................................................................................... 24

5.4 Hi Tech Manufacturing................................................................................................ 26

5.5 Retail .......................................................................................................................... 28

5.6 Public sector and Defence .......................................................................................... 29

5.7 Occupation and employment ...................................................................................... 31

5.8 Unemployment trend .................................................................................................. 35

6 People ............................................................................................................................... 39

6.1 Demographic change.................................................................................................. 39

6.2 Skills ........................................................................................................................... 41

6.3 Income ........................................................................................................................ 45

6.4 Deprivation ................................................................................................................. 47

7 Place ................................................................................................................................. 49

7.1 Access to broadband services .................................................................................... 49

7.2 Housing ...................................................................................................................... 51

7.3 Transport .................................................................................................................... 53



7.4 The value of Oxfordshire’s environment ..................................................................... 56

7.5 Pressures on Oxfordshire’s environment .................................................................... 58

ANNEX 1: Definitions of sector groups .................................................................................. 63

Report prepared by: Margaret Melling, MM Consulting Limited

On behalf of: Dave Waller, Oxfordshire County Council

Using data and evidence from: Oxfordshire Data Observatory

Office for National Statistics, Dept Work and Pensions, Dept for Transport, Dept for Energy and Climate Change, Dept for Education

Oxfordshire County Council

Previous version of the Economic Assessment (July 2010)

Supporting papers including the Future Broadband Strategy for Oxfordshire; Public Sector Employment barometer; Spatial distribution of priority sectors (SEEDA)

Data sources are noted with each table, chart or map



1 Introduction to the Economic Assessment

1.1 Introduction

The Oxfordshire Economic Assessment is a review and analysis of data and evidence relating to the local economy including:

The wider geographical and economic context;

Enterprise and business;

People;

The economic infrastructure of the county.

The Assessment has been developed in collaboration with the Oxfordshire Economic Partnership (made up of business, local government and university representatives) and with other members of Oxfordshire’s Spatial Planning and Infrastructure Partnership.

A consultation on the draft was carried out between May and July 2010.

This edited, shortened and updated version of the Assessment has been developed following the publication of a much larger draft document (July 2010) that is available for reference.

1.2 The Oxfordshire Local Enterprise Partnership

This latest version of the Economic Assessment is now in the context of the aims and priorities of the new Oxfordshire Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP) as set out in the Oxfordshire City-Region Enterprise Partnership Bid of September 2010.

The focus of the new LEP is on three spatial priorities and three industry sector priorities.

The spatial priorities are:

Science Vale UK – building on its designation as a national science and innovation campus.

Bicester – using the eco-town proposal to act as the focus for delivering sustainable development.

Oxford – continuing to support this world-class centre of education, research and innovation.

The sector priorities are:

Low carbon and green technologies

Advanced materials and engineering



Space and other high value Research and Development science-based sectors (including health care, cryogenics etc).

The LEP bid notes that other sectors will continue to be important to Oxfordshire including:

Retail,

Creative and cultural industries,

Tourism and the visitor economy,

The military,

The Voluntary and Community sector.

Furthermore that it is a stated priority for the partnership to invest in the county’s economic infrastructure – especially transport and communications.

1.3 Future work on economic evidence

This Economic Assessment provides a snapshot of the findings from the most readily available data on the local economy. It is intended that, guided by the LEP, further work will be carried out in order to:

Provide ongoing reporting on the most important metrics on Oxfordshire’s economy;

Identify any economic issues that do not yet have relevant and reliable evidence and agree how best to fill those gaps;

Research areas that are insufficiently understood.

The choice of evidence is likely to include the factors that increase or reduce economic growth and productivity or, as the economists would put it, the positive agglomeration / spillover effects between businesses and individuals. Positive agglomeration increases growth, productivity, efficiency and living standards, but may increase the costs of excessive agglomeration – congestion, housing shortages, resource use, skills shortages, environmental damage etc.



2 Summary of key findings

2.1 Overview

Oxfordshire has an attractive business environment including:

The Universities in Oxford, which have created a globally recognised centre of excellence for learning and research and other important research facilities.

A highly qualified resident workforce.

An accessible central England location with an internationally famous urban centre surrounded by a rural hinterland, including historic market towns and areas of outstanding natural beauty.

The business environment has supported the development of a successful Oxfordshire economy within the major economic region of the south east of England.

Just over half of Oxfordshire’s workforce is engaged in knowledge-based sectors including ICT, scientific research & development, consultancy, education and health services.

The proportion of employment in knowledge-based sectors in Oxfordshire is well above the South East average and other county areas and is concentrated in Oxford, southern Oxfordshire and Banbury.

In 2008 Oxfordshire contributed £15.4bn to the economy of England.

Economic structures and conditions vary across Oxfordshire.

Oxford is an internationally recognised “brand”.

The area known as Science Vale UK, centred on the science and innovation campus at Harwell, Milton Park, Culham, Didcot and Wantage & Grove contains a large concentration of scientific research and development with the potential for major economic growth.

Further north, Bicester is identified as a significant growth point in the South East Plan and, with the planned eco-town in northwest Bicester, has the potential to become a focus for jobs centred on environmental technologies.

Oxfordshire’s recent economic growth has, in part, been fuelled by expansion of the public sector.

The public sector (including public administration and defence, education, health and other services) is now Oxfordshire’s second largest contributor to the county’s economy (as measured by Gross Value Added) and recent growth has been above other sectors.



The education workforce has increased significantly. Between 1998 and 2008 employment in primary, secondary, further and higher education grew by over 50% to 46,900, from 9% to 15% of Oxfordshire’s workforce.

2.2 Issues and challenges

While the Oxfordshire economy has many strengths, this assessment has highlighted a number of issues and challenges:

[a] Comparatively low economic growth over the past five years.

Evidence suggests that despite the ‘world class’ elements of its economy Oxfordshire is not growing as fast as other successful parts of the South East in terms of both the size of its economy and its productivity.

[b] Pressures on Oxfordshire’s business environment.

Oxfordshire’s most deprived areas have consistently poor scores on the “Education & Skills” domain and, despite its well-qualified workforce, Oxfordshire is ranked below some statistically similar areas on pupil attainment.

The population of Oxfordshire is predicted to grow at different rates in urban and rural areas with some rural wards expected to see a decline in population. This would further affect the viability of rural services and retail.

Housing remains relatively unaffordable in Oxfordshire with a high house price to earnings ratio.

Research has highlighted the issue of lower broadband speeds in rural Oxfordshire.

Despite a recent decline in overall traffic on Oxfordshire’s roads, commuting times in the county remain relatively high.

[c] Unsustainable use of natural resources and relatively high carbon emissions.

Oxfordshire’s ecological footprint area (the area needed to support demand for natural resources including water, energy and clean air) is approximately 14 times its land area.

The carbon footprint of Oxfordshire’s rural districts is above that of the South East region.

Oxfordshire is, however, extremely well-placed to respond to this environmental challenge with a leading role in climate science and strong scientific skills and networks.



[d] The impact of the economic recession and the impending reduction in public sector employment and expenditure.

The impact of the recession has been greatest in communities struggling with elements of deprivation such as low skills and high levels of unemployment.

Public sector cuts are expected to cause a significant reduction in spending on infrastructure and services.

[e] The need for a clear story for Oxfordshire’s economy.

There is anecdotal evidence that Oxfordshire’s strengths in the areas of science and technology are insufficiently recognised both locally by its own population and externally by potential investors. This risks affecting the educational choices of young people in the county’s schools and the investment choices of investors external to Oxfordshire.

The need to respond to the challenges in areas such as technology, economic competition, a smaller public sector and the environment / climate change will mean that the resilience of the Oxfordshire economy could be as important as absolute levels of growth.



3 Oxfordshire at a glance

Oxfordshire Share of England

total

source

Land area

Land area in hectares 260,494 2.0% ONS Census 2001 table KS01

Population

Total population 644,100 1.2% ONS sub-national population projections 2010

Population in employment 332,100 1.42% ONS Annual Pop survey Jul09 to Jun10

GVA

Total GVA £15.4bn 1.42% ONS 2008

GVA per head £23,656 - ONS 2008

Enterprise and business

Enterprises registered for VAT and/or PAYE

27,175 1.5% ONS Mar 2010

Unemployed

Working age (16-64) unemployment (ILO) 10,500 0.5% ONS Annual Population Survey Jul 09-Jun 10

Claimant count 7,186 0.62% DWP claimants of unemployment benefit Dec10

Skills

With degree or above (Economically active aged 16-64)

105,600 1.7% ONS Annual Population Survey Jan 09-Dec 09

With no qualifications (Economically active aged 16-64)

18,400 0.9% ONS Annual Population Survey Jan 09-Dec 09



4 Oxfordshire in Context

4.1 Geography

The Oxfordshire economy is composed of all of the economic activity that occurs in the county i.e. profits from Oxfordshire-based businesses and salaries paid to workers.

Oxfordshire’s workers include those that are resident in Oxfordshire and those that commute into the county from elsewhere.

At the time of the Census 2001 survey there were a total of 315,200 people working in Oxfordshire of which 50,072 (15.9%) were in-commuters.

Figure 1 Commuting into and out of Oxfordshire (2001)

TOTAL resident workforce = 313,828

TOTAL workers/jobs = 315,200 Source: ONS Census 2001 survey, from report Travel to work in Oxfordshire published by Oxfordshire County Council Environment & Economy 2004

Commuting WITHIN

Oxfordshire 207,273

Out-commuting

Residents travelling to work OUTSIDE Oxfordshire

48,700 (15.5% of resident workforce)

In-commuting

Workers from elsewhere travelling INTO Oxfordshire

50,072 (15.9% of all workers/jobs)

Working from home and no

fixed workplace 57,855



Aggregating a range of criteria including housing, transport, labour markets and economic development across England led the Local Government Association (LGA) to suggest1 that the spatial area of Oxfordshire approximates to a functional economic area identified as an Oxford City Region.

However the functional economic area varies.

The “all worker” labour market is geographically smaller than that for senior managers and professionals, i.e. people in more senior and higher-paying jobs commuted further.

The housing/migration area of South Midlands and Milton Keynes extends into north Oxfordshire.

Oxfordshire is part of a much larger London city region as well as having strong links across its boundaries to neighbouring centres (Swindon, Reading, Aylesbury and Milton Keynes in particular).

Within the county there are approximately 20 towns that each have their own retail and service hinterlands that affect their local economic performance.

In addition Oxfordshire has some specific geographical areas which are relevant for economic evaluation.

the Science Vale UK area that brings together the high tech centres of employment and associated housing in the South Oxfordshire and Vale of White Horse districts.

The Oxford and Central Oxfordshire Diamond for Infrastructure and Growth, a basis for comparison with 7 other urban ‘Diamonds’ across the South East.

Villages and market towns that have developed their own specific analysis and plans for their part of the local economy.

West Oxfordshire, South Oxfordshire and Vale of White Horse Districts are all part of Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty that extend across into neighbouring counties and to a greater or lesser extent have associated tourism markets that are not specifically related to Oxfordshire.

Rural areas that make up more of Oxfordshire than any other South East county. The characteristics of the residents of rural areas are quite distinct in terms of their demographics and their engagement with the Oxfordshire economy.

1 Prosperous communities II: vive la dévolution! Published by LGA 2007 http://www.lga.gov.uk/lga/publications/publication-display.do?id=21917



Oxfordshire is internationally and nationally accessible by air, road and rail.

6 of the 10 largest cities in the UK are reachable from Oxfordshire in under 3 hours by rail.

London and Birmingham are reachable in under an hour by rail.

There is easy access to London and Birmingham via the M40 motorway.

There are 8 international airports within a 3 hour commute (via public transport).

Figure 2 Access to Oxfordshire by road and rail

From Economic Development Strategy for Oxfordshire 2006-2016



4.2 Size of the economy

In 2008 (the latest year of data) Oxfordshire’s total Gross Value Added2 (GVA) had increased to £15.4 billion, however Oxfordshire’s share of the national economy declined for the fourth year in succession.

Between 2007 and 2008 Oxfordshire’s GVA increased from £15.2bn to £15.4bn, up by 1.3% compared with an increase of 3.1% across England as a whole.

The GVA data shows Oxfordshire’s share of the national economy increasing between 1995 and 2000, remaining relatively constant to 2004 and then declining between 2004 and 2008.

Figure 3 Oxfordshire’s share of the economy of England

Source: National Statistics released Dec10. Extract from table 3.1 Headline GVA at current basic prices by region

2 Note on use of GVA: There are issues with GVA as an indicator - it is complicated, is at least two years in arrears and contains economic “bads” as well as “goods” e.g. the activity involved in clearing up pollution incidents or attending to accidents. However it provides a widely recognised benchmark and an indication of competitiveness.

1.35% 1.36% 1.39% 1.46% 1.50% 1.53% 1.53% 1.53% 1.53% 1.53% 1.52% 1.48% 1.45% 1.42%



On GVA per head Oxfordshire remains within the top 20 of areas3 in the UK but moved from 13th place in 2006, to 14th in 2007 and is now in 15th place.

Figure 4 Oxfordshire’s ranking on GVA per head, 2006, 2007 and 2008

2006 2007 2008

Source: National Statistics released Dec10. Extract from table 3:6 GVA per head (constrained to headline NUTS2) at current basic prices

3 Areas in this case means NUTS3, a European standard for territorial reporting based on existing administrative units with a population between 150k and 800k.

Inner London - West 96,877 1Edinburgh, City of 30,588 2Berkshire 29,913 3Belfast 28,886 4Inner London - East 28,786 5Swindon 28,421 6Milton Keynes 28,011 7Bristol City of 25,554 8Glasgow City 25,466 9

Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire

25,040 10

Peterborough 25,022 11

Nottingham 24,644 12Oxfordshire 23,638 13Surrey 22,944 14Hertfordshire 22,684 15Derby 21,712 16Halton and Warrington 21,708 17

Solihull 21,595 18

Buckinghamshire 21,193 19Greater Manchester South

21,134 20

Inner London - West 108,194 1Edinburgh, City of 35,029 2Inner London - East 33,308 3Belfast 32,728 4Berkshire 32,443 5Swindon 30,288 6Milton Keynes 30,055 7Glasgow City 29,539 8Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire

27,388 9

Bristol City of 27,000 10

Surrey 26,528 11

Nottingham 26,151 12Peterborough 24,520 13Hertfordshire 24,300 14Oxfordshire 23,656 15Cambridgeshire CC 23,654 16Halton and Warrington 23,536 17

Solihull 23,328 18

Leeds 23,170 19Greater Manchester South

23,156 20

Inner London - West 101,300 1Edinburgh, City of 33,084 2Inner London - East 32,641 3Berkshire 31,615 4Belfast 30,706 5Swindon 30,239 6Milton Keynes 28,972 7Glasgow City 27,535 8Peterborough 27,257 9

Bristol City of 26,740 10

Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire

26,127 11

Nottingham 25,063 12Surrey 24,624 13Oxfordshire 23,809 14Hertfordshire 23,605 15Solihull 23,020 16Derby 22,625 17

Greater Manchester South

22,437 18

Leeds 22,413 19Luton 22,393 20



Oxfordshire’s most recent GVA growth has been fuelled by an increase in the contribution of the public sector.

The industry sector “Public Administration, Education, Health and Other services” – equivalent to the public sector - became Oxfordshire’s second largest in 2002.

Between 2007 and 2008 the GVA from the public sector increased by 5.4% whilst GVA from production fell by 2.8%.

Figure 5 GVA by industry sector in Oxfordshire

Source: National Statistics Online GVA released Dec10 Table 3:4 Headline Gross Value Added by NUTS3 area and 6 industries

Table 1 2007 to 2008 GVA by sector - Oxfordshire

£million Business services &

finance

Public sector

Distrib, transport & comms

Product-ion

Construct-ion

Agri, forestry & fishing

Total GVA

2007 4 709 3 986 2 969 2 581 873 69 15 187 2008 4 739 4 203 2 986 2 508 873 80 15 389 Change 2007 to 2008 30 217 17 - 73 0 11 202 0.6% 5.4% 0.6% -2.8% 0.0% 15.9% 1.3% Source: National Statistics Online GVA released Dec10 Table 3:4 Headline Gross Value Added by NUTS3 area and 6 industries

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

£ m

illio

n

Business services and finance

Public administration, education, health and other services

Distribution, transport and communication

Production

Construction

Agriculture, forestry and fishing



Although Oxfordshire’s businesses compete successfully in a range of global markets, the county’s employment base is too small to be compared with other internationally-competitive regions such as Silicon Valley in California.

Examples of successful Oxfordshire-based businesses competing in global markets include BMW Mini, Abbots Health Care, Siemens MRI scanners, CTG composite materials, many small bio-pharma companies, gaming software companies.

Silicon Valley’s hi-tech employment is 6 times the size of the total professional, manufacturing and communications sector in Oxfordshire.

o Hi-tech industries in Silicon Valley employed 436,000 people in 20084 compared with 71,000 in Oxfordshire’s Professional, scientific & technical, Manufacturing and Information & Communications sectors5.

4 United States Dept of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2009/ted_20090908_data.htm 5 2009 Nomis: Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES) total employment in the three sectionsquoted



5 Enterprise and Business

5.1 Number and type of businesses

In March 2010 there were 27,175 enterprises based in Oxfordshire and registered for VAT and/or PAYE.

19% of Oxfordshire’s VAT and/or PAYE registered enterprises were in the sector “Professional, scientific and technical”. This was above the average for England and the South East.

Table 2 Proportion of enterprises by industry (March 2010)

England South East Oxfordshire

SORT column

Oxfordshire compared with

averages

Professional, scientific & technical 16.1% 18.1% 19.2% above average

Construction 13.0% 13.8% 12.3% below average

Information & communication 7.4% 9.5% 9.1% below SE average

Arts, entertainment, recreation and other services

7.2% 7.8% 8.6% above average

Business administration and support services

7.2% 8.0% 7.5% below SE average

Retail 8.8% 7.6% 7.0% below average

Agriculture, forestry & fishing 5.0% 3.2% 5.6% above average

Accommodation & food services 5.9% 5.2% 5.4% above SE average

Production 6.5% 5.7% 5.4% below average

Wholesale 5.1% 4.8% 4.1% below average

Health 3.8% 3.5% 3.4% below average

Property 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% Similar

Motor trades 3.2% 3.1% 2.9% below average

Education 1.6% 1.7% 2.2% above average

Transport & storage (inc. postal) 3.2% 2.9% 2.2% below average

Finance & insurance 2.1% 1.9% 1.5% below average

Public administration and defence 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% Similar

Source: UK Business: Activity Size and Location 2010, ONS Business Statistics Division Sept 2010



Oxfordshire has a relatively high proportion of low turnover enterprises (less than £49k p.a.) and a relatively low proportion of small to medium turnover enterprises (£50k to £249k).

19% of Oxfordshire’s VAT and/or PAYE registered enterprises had a turnover of up to £49k compared with £17.2% in the South East and 17% in England.

The amalgamated size band £50k to £249k represents 51% of Oxfordshire’s enterprises compared with 53.2% in the South East and 52.3% in England.

Table 3 Proportion of Enterprises by turnover (March 2010)

£000s 0 - 49 50 - 99 100 - 249

250 - 499

500 - 999

1,000 - 4,999

5,000 + TOTAL

ENGLAND 307,695 421,920 517,775 225,890 144,520 137,445 42,665 1,797,910

17% 23% 29% 13% 8% 8% 2% 100%

SOUTH EAST 56,765 79,235 96,625 40,595 25,525 24,340 7,290 330,375

17% 24% 29% 12% 8% 7% 2% 100%

Oxfordshire 5,215 6,135 7,725 3,370 2,160 1,945 625 27,175

19% 23% 28% 12% 8% 7% 2% 100%


Should the Oxfordshire profile become more like that of the South East (i.e. with a greater proportion of medium and large turnover enterprises) a very rough estimate suggests this could increase the total turnover of enterprises in the county by +£93m.

Table 4 Estimated additional value of applying South East turnover profile to Oxfordshire’s enterprises

0 - 49 50 - 99 100 - 249

250 - 499

500 - 999

1,000 + TOTAL

Count of Oxfordshire enterprises by turnover band

5,215 6,135 7,725 3,370 2,160 2,570 27,175

Count of Oxfordshire enterprises based on South East % by turnover

4,669 6,517 7,948 3,339 2,100 2,602 27,175

Difference (Oxon based on SE minus Oxon)

-546 382 223 -31 -60 32 0

Estimate of additional value (using top end of scale) £m

-27 38 55 -15 -60 159 149

Source: Calculated from UK Business: Activity Size and Location 2010, ONS Business Statistics Division Sept 10



It is possible that Oxfordshire’s below average proportion of enterprises in the Accommodation & food services, Construction and Retail sectors are contributing to the below average proportion of mid turnover enterprises.

UK-wide data on turnover band by sector shows Accommodation and food services with the highest proportion in the turnover band £50k to £249k (64% compared with 52% overall).

Oxfordshire has a below average proportion of enterprises in the Accommodation and food services sector (5.4% compared with 5.9% in England).

Table 5 Sectors with a higher proportion of mid-turnover enterprises

Percent of sector in turnover band £50

to £249k (UK)

Sector as % of total

enterprises ENGLAND

Sector as % of total

enterprises OXFORDSHIRE

Oxfordshire compared with

England

Accommodation & food services

64% 5.9% 5.4% below

Information & communication 63% 7.4% 9.1% above

Professional, scientific & technical

61% 16.1% 19.2% above

Arts, entertainment, recreation and other services

57% 7.2% 8.6% above

Construction 54% 13.0% 12.3% below

Retail 52% 8.8% 7.0% below

Business administration and support services

52% 7.2% 7.5% above

TOTAL 52%




From 2000 to 2004 the VAT registered business base in Oxfordshire increased at an above average rate. From 2005 however this rate of growth has been at or below average.

Figure 6 Increase in VAT enterprises (net change) as % of total base of VAT enterprises (stock at end of year)

Source: VAT registrations/deregistrations by industry from nomis 2007 is the latest year of data

As of March 2010, Oxfordshire had a higher proportion of older enterprises (45% compared with 42% in the South East and England) and a lower proportion of younger enterprises.

Figure 7 Enterprises by age of business (percent of total enterprises) – Oxfordshire vs South East and England (March 2010)

Source: ONS Crown Copyright, All VAT and/or PAYE Based Enterprises by age, from Neighbourhood Statistics

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Oxfordshire

England

South East

13% 14%

29%

45%

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%

< 2 years 2 to 3 years 4 to 9 years 10+ years

Oxfordshire

South East

England



The decline in the number of registered enterprises aged less than 2 years may indicate a slowdown in the creation of new businesses OR a change in the profile with fewer choosing to register for VAT and/or PAYE.

Although the number of new enterprises is below average it may be that their survival rate is better than the regional average.

Table 6 Enterprises in Oxfordshire by age of business (2008 to 2010)

Age of enterprise Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Change Mar-09 to Mar-10

< 2 years 4,205 4,050 3,550 -500 -12%

2 to 3 years 3,915 3,735 3,715 -20 -1%

4 to 9 years 7,590 7,730 7,775 +45 +1%

10+ years 11,775 12,015 12,135 +120 +1%

All VAT and/or PAYE Based Enterprises

27,485 27,530 27,175 -355 -1%

Source: ONS Crown Copyright, All VAT and/or PAYE Based Enterprises by age, from Neighbourhood Statistics



5.2 Key employment sectors - overview

According to the ONS Annual Business Inquiry 2009, Oxfordshire had 310,000 full time and part time workers6 employed by organisations in the county with above average employment in Education, Professional, scientific and technical activities, Manufacturing and Public administration and defence.

Table 7 Employees by Standard Industrial Classification section (2009) – sorted

England South East Oxfordshire

% of total % of total Count % Oxfordshire vs South East

Education 10% 10% 46,900 15% above average

Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles

16% 17% 46,700 15% below average

Human health and social work activities 13% 13% 39,000 13% similar

Professional, scientific and technical activities

7% 8% 32,000 10% above average

Manufacturing 9% 7% 23,000 8% above SE average

Accommodation and food service activities 7% 6% 20,000 6% similar

Administrative and support service activities 8% 8% 19,000 6% below average

Information and communication 4% 5% 16,200 5% similar

Public administration and defence; compulsory social security

5% 4% 15,500 5% above SE average

Construction 5% 5% 14,300 5% similar

Transportation and storage 5% 4% 8,900 3% below average

Arts, entertainment and recreation 2% 3% 7,800 3% similar

Other service activities 2% 2% 7,300 2% similar

Financial and insurance activities 4% 3% 5,500 2% below average

Real estate activities 2% 1% 3,700 1% similar

Water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities

1% 1% 2,100 1% Similar

Other 1% 1% 1,900 1% Similar

TOTAL 100% 100% 310,000 100% Source: Nomis: Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES), note that the count data has been rounded to the nearest 100 but percentages have been calculated on the original data; provided by the Oxfordshire Data Observatory

6 The ONS ABI does not count people who are self-employed



In comparison with statistical neighbours, Oxfordshire has the highest proportion of employment in Education and in addition (like Cambridgeshire) a relatively high proportion in Professional, Scientific and Technical activities.

Figure 8 Percent of total number of employees (2009)

Education

Professional, scientific and technical activities

Source: Nomis: Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES) provided by the Oxfordshire Data Observatory

7.2%

8.5%

8.6%

9.1%

9.2%

9.4%

9.6%

9.8%

10.0%

10.9%

10.9%

11.0%

12.8%

15.1%

10.2%

9.6%

Northamptonshire

West Sussex

West Berkshire

Hampshire

Buckinghamshire

Milton Keynes

Wiltshire

Warwickshire

Surrey

Kent

East Sussex

Gloucestershire

Cambridgeshire

Oxfordshire

South East

England

4.9%

6.0%

6.3%

6.3%

6.4%

6.8%

7.4%

7.6%

7.8%

9.1%

9.8%

10.3%

10.6%

11.5%

7.9%

7.2%

East Sussex

Kent

West Sussex

Northamptonshire

Gloucestershire

West Berkshire

Wiltshire

Hampshire

Warwickshire

Buckinghamshire

Milton Keynes

Oxfordshire

Cambridgeshire

Surrey

South East

England



5.3 Knowledge Intensive sectors

55% of Oxfordshire’s employment (170,600 of a total of 310,000 employees) is in the knowledge-intensive sectors (KIS) of professional activities, ICT, scientific research & development, education and health services.

This proportion of employment in knowledge intensive sectors in Oxfordshire is above the South East (50%) and England (49%) averages.

The Education sector is the main contributor and made up 28% of the knowledge intensive employment in Oxfordshire – above the South East (20%) and England (19%). Figure 9 Largest KIS sectors – employment as a percent of total KIS (2008)

Source: Nomis: Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES) provided by Oxfordshire Data Observatory

* Oxfordshire above average

*

*

*

*

*

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0%

Other knowledge intensive sectors

Scientific research and development

Residential care activities

Sports activities and amusement and recreation activities

Publishing activities

Computer programming, consultancy and related activities

Employment activities

Architectural and engineering activities; technical testing and analysis

Social work activities without accommodation

Activities of head offices; management consultancy activities

Public administration and defence; compulsory social security

Human health activities

Education

OXFORDSHIRE

SOUTH EAST

ENGLAND



Mapping employment in Knowledge Intensive Businesses in Oxfordshire shows significant numbers of employees in Oxford city, Banbury, Thame, Abingdon and the area west of Didcot (Milton Park).

Figure 10 Location of employment in Knowledge Intensive Businesses (2008)



5.4 Hi Tech Manufacturing

The proportion of employment in Oxfordshire in the hi-tech manufacturing sector is below the South East average and below other comparator counties includes Gloucestershire and Cambridgeshire.

The hi-tech manufacturing grouping includes manufacturing of spacecraft, computers, electronic components and pharmaceutical products7.

Oxfordshire’s largest hi-tech manufacturing sector is Manufacture of computers and peripheral equipment followed by Manufacture of instruments and appliances for measuring, testing and navigation; watches and clocks.

Gloucestershire’s largest hi-tech manufacturing sector is Manufacture of instruments and appliances for measuring, testing and navigation; watches and clocks followed by Manufacture of air and spacecraft and related machinery (this sector is also the largest of Cambridgeshire’s hi tech group).

Figure 11 Employment in hi technology manufacturing sectors as a percent of total employment (2009)

Source: Nomis: Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES) provided by Oxfordshire Data Observatory 7 See annex 1 for the definition of the sectors included in the hi tech manufacturing group

0.40%

0.45%

0.51%

0.72%

0.85%

0.95%

0.99%

1.07%

1.80%

1.92%

2.00%

2.56%

2.59%

1.11%

0.93%

Kent

Northamptonshire

Surrey

Warwickshire

Wiltshire

East Sussex

Oxfordshire

West Berkshire

Buckinghamshire

West Sussex

Hampshire

Cambridgeshire

Gloucestershire

South East

England



Oxfordshire has above average employment in medium hi tech manufacturing but well below West Berkshire.

The medium hi-tech manufacturing grouping includes manufacturing of chemicals, medical instruments, domestic appliances, machinery and vehicles8.

Oxfordshire’s largest sector within medium hi tech manufacturing is Manufacture of Motor Vehicles, followed by Manufacture of medical and dental instruments and supplies.

In West Berkshire by contrast the largest sector is Manufacture of weapons and ammunition.

Figure 12 Employment in MEDIUM hi technology manufacturing sectors as % total employment (2009)


8 See annex 1 for the definition of the sectors included in the medium hi tech manufacturing group

1.36%

1.46%

1.70%

1.85%

1.86%

1.95%

2.43%

2.90%

3.00%

3.06%

3.30%

4.07%

7.56%

2.15%

2.17%

East Sussex

Buckinghamshire

Cambridgeshire

Wiltshire

Kent

West Sussex

Surrey

Hampshire

Oxfordshire

Northamptonshire

Gloucestershire

Warwickshire

West Berkshire

South East

England



5.5 Retail

The proportion of employment in the retail sector in Oxfordshire in 2009 was just below average (9.5% in Oxfordshire compared with 10.5% in England). Calculated as a percent of the resident population, however, the rate of retail employment was at a very similar level to England and the South East.

Figure 13 Employment in Retail sectors as % total employment (2009)


Table 8 Retail employment as % of population

TOTAL Retail employment Resident Population (2009)

Retail employment as % of population

England 2,378,000 51,809,700 4.590%

South East 386,90 8,435,700 4.586%

Oxfordshire 29,400 640,300 4.593% Source: Nomis: Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES) provided by Oxfordshire Data Observatory; ONS mid-year estimate 2009

8.1%

8.6%

9.0%

9.1%

9.4%

9.5%

10.4%

10.5%

10.5%

10.8%

11.3%

12.4%

12.6%

10.6%

10.5%

West Berkshire

Warwickshire

Cambridgeshire

Northamptonshire

Surrey

Oxfordshire

Buckinghamshire

Hampshire

Wiltshire

Gloucestershire

West Sussex

East Sussex

Kent

South East

England



5.6 Public sector and Defence

According to the Public Sector Cuts Barometer9 published by local futures, Oxford city ranks 4th out of Local Authorities in Great Britain on the percent of total employment in the public services sectors - well above the GB average.

This is based on data from the Business Register and Employment survey (as referenced in section 5.2) and includes local government, education, health, police and armed forces.

Table 9 Local Authorities in Great Britain with the highest share of total employment in public services

Rank Local Authority Public sector as % of total employment

1 Castle Morpeth 57.6%

2 Wansbeck 47.8%

3 Durham 46.0%

4 Oxford 46.0%

5 Denbighshire 44.7%

Great Britain average 27.0% Source: ONS ABI 2009 as published in local futures Public Sector Cuts Barometer July 2010

The most recent data (Q2 2010) from the quarterly public sector employment survey published by the Local Government Association shows Oxford and Oxfordshire each with a declining number of jobs in local government.

Table 10 Full time equivalent (FTE) jobs in the Local Government

FTE FTE % change

Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010

Oxford 1,160 1,220 1,130 1,140 5.2% -7.4% 0.9%

Oxfordshire 14,087 14,237 14,316 14,260 1.1% 0.6% -0.4%

South East 208,200 210,800 210,800 208,300 1.2% 0.0% -1.2%

England and Wales

1,571,700 1,587,600 1,583,800 1,573,000 1.0% -0.2% -0.7%

Source: Quarterly Public Sector Employment Survey LGA

9 http://www.localfutures.com/Assets/3949/public%20sector%20employment%20barometer.pdf



Analysis by the South East of England Development Agency has highlighted rural Oxfordshire as an area with a relatively high proportion of employment in Defence.

SEEDA’s source is the Business Register and Employment survey (ref section 5.2).

Figure 14 Concentration of Defence Activities within the South East (Employment relative to national average)

Oxfordshire



5.7 Occupation and employment

The ONS Annual Population survey has shown changes in the occupational profile of Oxfordshire’s working population with an increase in people employed as managers and professionals and a decline in those in admin, trade, operatives and elementary occupations.

Table 11 Employment by occupation in Oxfordshire 2004/05 to 2009/10

Jul 04-Jun 05 Jul 09-Jun 10 Change 04/05 to 09/10

1: managers and senior officials 52,400 61,400 9,000 17%

2: professional occupations 52,300 66,800 14,500 28%

3: associate prof & tech occupations 50,600 47,600 -3,000 -6%

4: administrative and secretarial occupations 42,300 29,600 -12,700 -30%

5: skilled trades occupations 35,700 25,700 -10,000 -28%

6: personal service occupations 23,600 32,400 8,800 37%

7: sales and customer service occupations 21,100 22,000 900 4%

8: process, plant and machine operatives 17,000 14,100 -2,900 -17%

9: elementary occupations 34,600 31,100 -3,500 -10%

TOTAL in employment 329,600 330,700 1,100 0%

Source: ONS Annual Population Survey from nomis



Oxfordshire has an above average proportion of those in employment working in professional occupations compared with the South East and England averages.

Figure 15 Employment by occupation June 2009 to June 2010


0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0

9: elementary occupations

8: process, plant and machine operatives

7: sales and customer service occupations

6: personal service occupations

5: skilled trades occupations

4: administrative and secretarial …

3: associate prof & tech occupations

2: professional occupations

1: managers and senior officials

Percent of those in employment

Oxfordshire

South East

England



Oxfordshire has an above average proportion of people in full time or part time work for both men and women aged 25 to 49 and aged 50+.

Figure 16 Percent of people in full time or part time work (June09 to June10)

Aged 25 to 49

Aged 50+

Source: ONS Annual Population Survey from nomis; Population denominator ONS 2009 mid-year population estimates

98.7%87.8%82.8%

73.8%84.9%

73.2%

Males Females

Oxfordshire South East England

51.7%40.1%44.6%

33.3%43.9%

32.2%

Males Females

Oxfordshire South East England



Almost 22% of employed males in Oxfordshire work in the public sector – well above average and the highest in its group of statistical neighbours.

The proportion of employed females in Oxfordshire working in the public sector is similar to the national average.

Figure 17 Public sector workers as % of all in employment (Jul09 to June10)

MALES

FEMALES


NOTE to data: The preferred source of statistics for public sector employment is the Quarterly Public Sector Employment Survey (QPSES) and external sources, however, figures from this source are not available below government office region level. Individuals in the Annual Population Survey (APS) are classified to the public or private sector according to their responses to the survey. Consequently, the classification of an individuals sector may differ from how they would be classified in QPSES statistics. Official estimates of public sector employment compiled from QPSES are generally lower than estimates available from APS. This is partially because many people who work within public sector premises, whilst being employed by private sector organizations, will classify themselves as working in the public sector, e.g. cleaners or security guards employed by a contractor to work at public sector premises.

8.7

10.6

12.4

12.9

13.5

13.7

14.3

14.5

14.9

15.4

15.8

16.6

16.9

18.7

20.6

21.8

15.3

16.0

Buckinghamshire

West Sussex

Northamptonshire

Somerset

Essex

Gloucestershire

Worcestershire

Surrey

Hertfordshire

Kent

Leicestershire

Warwickshire

Hampshire

Cambridgeshire

North Yorkshire

Oxfordshire

South East

England

24.5

26.5

29.4

29.7

31.2

31.4

31.8

32.0

32.9

33.2

33.5

33.6

34.1

34.3

37.9

38.5

30.6

34.1

West Sussex

Buckinghamshire

Kent

Hertfordshire

Surrey

Essex

Somerset

Warwickshire

Hampshire

Gloucestershire

Worcestershire

Northamptonshire

Oxfordshire

Leicestershire

Cambridgeshire

North Yorkshire

South East

England



5.8 Unemployment trend

The official measure of unemployment is the International Labour Organisation (ILO) unemployment rate from the ONS Annual Population Survey. The ILO survey-based data gives a higher number and rate of unemployed than the count of Job Seeker Allowance claimants and will include people who are unemployed but not claiming benefits.

Table 12 Comparison of ILO unemployment and JSA claimants - Oxfordshire

Measure Date Number Denominator Rate

Working age unemployment rate (ILO unemployment)

Annual Population Survey

Jul 09-Jun 10

10,500 327,900# 3.2

Job Seeker Allowance Claimants DWP Dec 2010 7,186 420,500* 1.7 Source: ONS and DWP from nomis; #aged 16-64 who are economically active; *2009 population aged 16-64

The latest ILO unemployment data shows a continuation of the downward trend in unemployment in Oxfordshire with a significantly greater fall than the England and South East averages.

Figure 18 Working age unemployment rate (ILO)


0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

perc

ent u

nem

ploy

ed

England

South East

Oxfordshire



The rate of unemployment related benefits claimants (Jobseeker’s allowance claimant rate) in Oxfordshire has also fallen since early 2009 but has not seen the same significant drop as in the ILO unemployment rate.

This may be because the ILO rate is derived from a sample survey whereas the claimant count is a full count of all claimants, or the difference may be influenced by the take-up of benefits.

Figure 19 Jobseeker’s allowance claimant rate – proportion of residents claiming unemployment benefits

Source: DWP from nomis; rate is calculated as a proportion of the 2009 population estimate of those aged 16-64

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

prop

orti

on o

f 16-

64 p

op England

South East

Oxfordshire



Small area data on Jobseeker’s allowance claimant count show some parts of Oxfordshire, including areas of Banbury and Oxford, have much higher rates than elsewhere in the county.

Blackbird Leys, Northfield Brook and Barton wards in Oxford and Banbury Ruscote and Neithrop in Cherwell have higher rates of claimants and also include areas ranked as more deprived on the Index of Multiple Deprivation.

Figure 20



Claimant count data also indicates that female employment in Oxfordshire may have been more affected by the recession with an increase in the proportion of female claimants from 27% of the total in December 2009 to 31% in December 2010.

Table 13 Oxfordshire Jobseeker’s allowance Claimants by gender

Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec09 to Dec10

Male 3,016 2,490 4,339 6,099 4,985 -1,114 -18%

Female 1,143 940 1,463 2,245 2,201 -44 -2%

TOTAL 4,159 3,430 5,802 8,344 7,186 -1,158 -14%

Females as % of total 27% 27% 25% 27% 31%

Source: Claimant Count DWP from nomis



6 People

6.1 Demographic change

Oxfordshire’s population is ageing with a significant growth in the number of older people predicted particularly in the upper age groups.

According to the ONS 2008-based population projections, between 2008 and 2033 (25 years) the population aged 65+ in Oxfordshire is expected to grow from 96,600 to 171,200, an increase of 77%.

Over the same time period the population aged 85+ is expected to increase by 165%.

The ratio of people aged 65+ to those aged 15-64 is expected to change so that by 2026 there will be 1 older person per 3 working age10 people.

Figure 21 Predicted change in ratio of older age (65+) to working age (15-64) population - Oxfordshire

Source: ONS 2008-based subnational population projections published May 2010, crown copyright

10 Note that in this dataset the normal working age range of 16-64 is not available, hence the use of the 15-64 age band.

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

1:3

1:4



Small area population forecasts show a contrast in the predicted population change in rural and urban parts of the county with some rural areas expected to see a significant decline in population.

Figure 22 Population change by ward in Oxfordshire 2006 - 2016



6.2 Skills

The proportion of the economically active population aged 16-64 with a degree or higher in Oxfordshire is above average and the rate for females is above all other areas in Oxfordshire’s statistical neighbours group.

Figure 23 % of economically active aged 16-64 with DEGREE OR EQUIVALENT and above (Jan09-Dec09)

MALES

FEMALES


19.7

21.1

21.3

21.7

22.1

22.2

22.3

23.9

24.1

24.5

25.6

29.6

31.0

32.1

32.3

32.4

26.5

25.6

Essex

Northamptonshire

Somerset

Worcestershire

West Sussex

Leicestershire

Kent

Gloucestershire

North Yorkshire

Hampshire

Warwickshire

Cambridgeshire

Buckinghamshire

Hertfordshire

Surrey

Oxfordshire

South East

England

16.8

17.2

17.6

21.8

21.9

22.5

22.7

23.1

24.6

27.0

27.3

28.9

29.7

31.3

31.7

34.0

26.2

24.5

Northamptonshire

Somerset

Essex

Kent

West Sussex

Hampshire

Leicestershire

North Yorkshire

Worcestershire

Gloucestershire

Warwickshire

Cambridgeshire

Hertfordshire

Oxfordshire

Buckinghamshire

Surrey

South East

England



A relatively low proportion of the economically active population in Oxfordshire have no qualifications. The proportion of unqualified females is below most of Oxfordshire’s statistical neighbours.

Figure 24 % of economically active aged 16-64 with NO QUALIFICATIONS (Jan09-Dec09)

MALES

FEMALES


3.6

4.5

4.8

5.4

5.5

5.5

5.8

6.9

6.9

7.7

8.1

9.4

9.5

9.5

10.1

12.2

5.8

7.3

Surrey

Oxfordshire

Buckinghamshire

Hertfordshire

Somerset

Hampshire

Cambridgeshire

Gloucestershire

West Sussex

Kent

North Yorkshire

Essex

Leicestershire

Worcestershire

Northamptonshire

Warwickshire

South East

England

4.7

4.9

4.9

5.0

6.1

6.4

6.5

6.8

6.8

7.9

7.9

8.4

10.5

11.5

11.7

12.6

6.6

8.5

Somerset

Hertfordshire

Buckinghamshire

Gloucestershire

North Yorkshire

Surrey

Oxfordshire

Hampshire

West Sussex

Cambridgeshire

Leicestershire

Kent

Warwickshire

Essex

Worcestershire

Northamptonshire

South East

England



Despite this relatively well-qualified workforce, Oxfordshire’s school pupil attainment was below the average in the South East on the percentage achieving 5 or more A*-C grades including English and Maths.

The proportion of those attaining 2 or more A*-C in Science GCSEs however is above average.

Figure 25 Pupil attainment 2008/09

NI75: % pupils with 5 A*-C GCSEs including English and Maths

NI84: % pupils with 2 or more A*-C in Science GCSEs

Source: National Indicator set Hub downloaded Oct 2010 from Communities and Local Government

48.8

48.9

49.0

50.2

52.0

52.2

52.6

52.9

53.7

55.4

56.2

58.0

58.5

58.8

59.3

65.4

53.7

49.8

Worcestershire

Northamptonshire

Somerset

Essex

Kent

West Sussex

Leicestershire

Oxfordshire

Warwickshire

Hampshire

Cambridgeshire

Gloucestershire

North Yorkshire

Surrey

Hertfordshire

Buckinghamshire

South East

England

48.6

49.8

52.2

52.2

52.8

53.8

55.3

56.0

56.3

57.4

57.7

58.0

58.2

59.1

62.9

63.2

54.7

54.2

Somerset

Northamptonshire

Leicestershire

Kent

Essex

West Sussex

Worcestershire

Warwickshire

Hertfordshire

Gloucestershire

Surrey

Hampshire

Oxfordshire

Cambridgeshire

Buckinghamshire

North Yorkshire

South East

England



Participation of 16 and 17 year olds in education and work based learning in Oxfordshire remains above the South East and England averages.

Figure 26 Percent of 16 and 17 year olds in education (full time or part time) and work based learning

Source: DfE: Participation in Education, Training and Employment by 16-18 Year Olds in England, published June 2009 and updated Sept 2010 Note that the margin of error surrounding local level participation estimates and the use of school level data for independent schools means that participation rates can be over 100 per cent in some Local Authority areas. This may affect Oxfordshire’s data.

According to Oxfordshire County Council, in mid-2009, 6.7% of young people in Oxfordshire were Not in Education Employment or Training, equivalent to around 1,000 young people aged 16 to 18.

This was slightly above the average for the South East (6.2%) and below the England average (7.6%).11

11 Oxfordshire County Council Children Young People and Familes, draft Children’s Plan Needs Analysis Dec 2009

70%

72%

74%

76%

78%

80%

82%

84%

86%

88%

90%

92%

% in

edu

cati

on o

r wor

k ba

sed

lear

ning

Oxfordshire

South East

England

Note scale



6.3 Income

Oxfordshire is fourth highest in its group of statistical neighbours on both resident and workplace earnings.

Figure 27 Full time weekly gross earnings (2010)

Resident

Workplace

Source: ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings published Dec 2010

471.5

472.0

474.7

479.2

484.7

500.2

504.6

508.8

530.4

540.3

540.7

547.8

552.9

597.5

609.7

630.1

547.8

506.0

North Yorkshire

Somerset

Northamptonshire

Worcestershire

Gloucestershire

Leicestershire

West Sussex

Warwickshire

Kent

Essex

Hampshire

Cambridgeshire

Oxfordshire

Hertfordshire

Buckinghamshire

Surrey

South East

England

444.5

446.3

448.8

458.7

471.5

473.1

479.2

486.8

488.6

488.7

509.7

520.3

525.7

540.3

547.8

564.8

523.7

504.5

North Yorkshire

Somerset

Worcestershire

Northampton…

Leicestershire

Gloucestershire

West Sussex

Essex

Warwickshire

Kent

Hampshire

Cambridgeshire

Oxfordshire

Hertfordshire

Buckinghams…

Surrey

South East

England



Oxfordshire’s resident full time workers earn a higher weekly gross amount than workers in the county however this differential is below that of 9 other statistical neighbours.

Figure 28 Difference between resident and workplace gross weekly full time earnings

Resident minus workplace earnings

Source: ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings published Dec 2010

11.6

16

20.2

25.4

25.7

27

27.2

27.5

28.7

30.4

31

41.7

53.5

57.2

61.9

65.3

24.1

1.5

Gloucestershire

Northamptonshire

Warwickshire

West Sussex

Somerset

North Yorkshire

Oxfordshire

Cambridgeshire

Leicestershire

Worcestershire

Hampshire

Kent

Essex

Hertfordshire

Buckinghamshire

Surrey

South East

England Residents earning more than workers implies out-commuting to workplace

with higher paid jobs (e.g. London)



6.4 Deprivation

According to the 2007 Indices of Deprivation – a nationally comparative measure – Oxfordshire’s most deprived areas are primarily a result of relatively poor scores on the Education and Skills domain.

One part of Northfield Brook ward is ranked just outside the top 10% of areas in England on the overall Index of Multiple Deprivation, but on the Education and Skills domain this same area is in the top 2% most deprived nationally.

Table 14 Oxfordshire’s 10 most deprived areas (IMD2007)

LA NAME Lower Super Output Area12 name

IMD 2007

Income Employ-ment

Health Education and skills

Housing and

services

Crime Environment

Oxford Northfield Brook 68 11% 10% 26% 12% 2% 32% 8% 47%

Oxford Barton & Sandhills 13

12% 10% 22% 13% 6% 13% 21% 42%

Oxford Barton & Sandhills 14

13% 14% 24% 24% 2% 11% 38% 30%

Oxford Blackbird Leys 20 14% 15% 25% 23% 4% 25% 6% 37%

Oxford Northfield Brook 69 14% 12% 26% 25% 5% 5% 22% 77%

Cherwell Banbury Ruscote 50

17% 15% 20% 34% 6% 66% 16% 16%

Cherwell Banbury Ruscote 54

17% 15% 21% 23% 5% 74% 19% 26%

Oxford Blackbird Leys 18 17% 20% 23% 29% 3% 25% 21% 39%

Oxford Rose Hill & Iffley 76 17% 10% 35% 36% 6% 14% 19% 44%

Oxford Rose Hill & Iffley 77 18% 20% 27% 22% 4% 26% 12% 58% Source: CLG IMD2007

12 Lower Super Output Areas are a statistical geography developed by the ONS and typically cover around 1,500 residents. Most wards include several LSOAs. Oxfordshire’s LSOAs have been named with the ward followed by part of the LSOA code.



As a comparison, the most deprived areas in Berkshire (a neighbour of Oxfordshire’s) are ranked as deprived on several of the domains including Income and Crime as well as Education and Skills.

Table 15 Berkshire’s 10 most deprived areas (IMD2007)

LA NAME LSOA code IMD 2007

Income Employ-ment

Health Education and skills

Housing and

services

Crime Environment

Slough E01016490 9% 12% 14% 18% 25% 2% 2% 28%

Reading E01016443 11% 8% 24% 30% 1% 39% 5% 43%

Reading E01016368 12% 10% 21% 28% 2% 40% 6% 35%

Reading E01016372 12% 10% 20% 33% 3% 21% 6% 48%

Reading E01016420 13% 11% 9% 18% 10% 52% 15% 35%

Reading E01016441 15% 12% 18% 23% 6% 24% 10% 80%

Slough E01016464 16% 7% 18% 37% 42% 47% 5% 25%

Reading E01016389 16% 9% 20% 27% 13% 26% 22% 40%

Reading E01016415 16% 17% 18% 29% 11% 30% 10% 25%

Reading E01016438 17% 15% 37% 37% 6% 39% 3% 30% Source: CLG IMD2007



7 Place

7.1 Access to broadband services

There is evidence that, without intervention, access to high speed broadband services in rural Oxfordshire will remain limited.

According to The Future Broadband Strategy for Oxfordshire13, the county has a patchy existing broadband service.

Mapping of the SEEDA broadband infrastructure survey 200814 carried out by South Oxfordshire District Council highlighted areas with no broadband service and extensive rural areas with low speed broadband.

There is a lack of a competitive market to drive the rollout of Next Generation Access. Much of Oxfordshire’s rural area is classified as a “Market 1” area by Ofcom (the communications regulator) meaning that there is a single supplier of local access (BT).

Oxfordshire as a whole averages 3.8 operators per exchange in addition to BT, putting the county in the third quartile nationally, but this figure is heavily influenced by Oxford’s relatively competitive broadband market.

Table 16 Competition in the local loop market in Oxfordshire

Local Authority Average number of local loop competitors per exchange

Ranking (out of 376)

Cherwell 3.8 240

Oxford 7.3 42

South Oxfordshire 2.6 292

Vale of White Horse 3.4 259

West Oxfordshire 1.6 319 Source: Ofcom, from Future Broadband Strategy for Oxfordshire

13 Prepared for Oxfordshire County Council by Adrian Wooster and Hugo Pickering June 2010 14 http://www.seeda.co.uk/Global_Competitiveness/Business/Broadband/Next%20_Generation_Broadband/; reported in Rural South Oxfordshire Summary of Evidence April 2009



Broadband refers to always-on access to data (including the internet) at a speed, or bandwidth, greater than dialup modems.

Surveys have shown that many customers are not receiving the speeds advertised by broadband providers. There have also been problems with reliability, and some service providers have been criticised for limiting the bandwidth available to heavy users.

Homes and businesses receive broadband services through the ‘access network’ that connects them to their local telecoms exchange or cable television hub. Next generation access (NGA) infrastructure often uses optical fibre rather than copper wires.

NGA does not refer to an exact bandwidth but to a range of improved characteristics for the user including speed, consistency and reliability of service.

Business applications that would benefit from NGA (particularly from faster uploads) include videoconferencing and moving data storage and security offsite to be managed by specialist service providers.

From: Next Generation Broadband Access, Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology April 2008



7.2 Housing

The ratio of lower quartile house prices (the cheapest market housing) to lower quartile earnings in Oxfordshire fell from 9.6 in 2008 to 8.5 in 2009, in a similar trend to the South East and England averages.

Figure 29 Lower quartile house price to income ratio

Source: Communities and Local Government live tables on housing, Table 576 (next due to be updated Jan 2011)

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

Low

er q

uart

ile h

ouse

pri

ce to

ear

ning

s rat

io

Oxfordshire

South East

England

8.52

6.28

7.71

9.6



Despite this recent fall, Oxfordshire’s ratio of lower quartile house prices to lower quartile earnings remains above average and above most of its statistical neighbours.

Surrey, Hertfordshire and West Sussex (all within the wider London commuter region) are the only counties with higher house price ratios.

Figure 30 Lower quartile house price to lower quartile earnings ratio (2009)

Source: Communities and Local Government live tables on housing, Table 576 (next due to be updated Jan 2011)

6.02

6.49

6.64

6.74

7.19

7.27

7.30

7.35

7.65

7.69

8.13

8.38

8.52

8.57

9.02

9.20

7.71

6.28

Northamptonshire

Warwickshire

Leicestershire

Cambridgeshire

Gloucestershire

Worcestershire

North Yorkshire

Kent

Somerset

Essex

Hampshire

Buckinghamshire

Oxfordshire

West Sussex

Hertfordshire

Surrey

SOUTH EAST

ENGLAND



7.3 Transport

The 1991 and 2001 Census surveys show an increased proportion of jobs in Oxfordshire filled by people living outside the county.

Almost 16% of the 315,000 jobs in Oxfordshire in 2001 were filled by people travelling into the county to work, up from 12% in 1991.

In 1991 more Oxfordshire residents travelled to work outside Oxfordshire than commuted in (the county was a net exporter of workers). By 2001 this had reversed and slightly more people were travelling into Oxfordshire to work than travelling to jobs outside the county.

The overall number of people living outside Oxfordshire and travelling to work in the county increased by 66% between 1991 and 2001.

Table 17 Change in the number of people travelling into and out of Oxfordshire for work 1991 to 2001

1991 2001 1991 to 2001 change

Residents travelling to work outside Oxfordshire

36,611 48,700 +12,089 +33%

People travelling into Oxfordshire for jobs

30,163 50,072 +19,909 +66%

Source: Census surveys, ONS, Crown copyright reserved, originally published in Understanding Oxfordshire Travel Patterns theme paper 2005



According to Oxfordshire County Council’s Transport Monitoring, the recent economic downturn coupled with increasing petrol prices have had a significant impact on car usage in Oxfordshire.

The total vehicle mileage in Oxfordshire during 2009 was 11.3 million miles, which equates to 2002 levels.

The rate of traffic flow on Oxfordshire's roads over the last 10 years (1999 to 2009) increased by 2.2%. Traffic on Oxfordshire's non-strategic roads, i.e. those roads for which Oxfordshire County Council is responsible, was 2.8% over ten years.

Over the past five years (2004 to 2009) there has been a reduction in average traffic flow of more than 3% for all roads in the county ( -3.08%). For the non-strategic roads there has been a decrease of -1.7%.

Figure 31 Annual traffic growth by road class in Oxfordshire where 1998/99 = 100

Source: Oxfordshire County Council Transport Monitoring

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However, despite this declining trend in overall traffic, commuting times remain relatively high.

In 2008/09 (academic year) it took commuters into Oxford city an average of 4 minutes 14 seconds per mile journey time during the morning peak. This is above most other counties publishing data for this indicator.

Figure 32 NI 167b - Vehicle journey time per mile during the morning peak for academic year 2008/09

Source: NI 167b - Variant 2 - Vehicle journey time per mile during the morning peak on major inbound routes in the larger urban centres, weighted by the relative traffic flow on those different routes

Department for Transport; Data download tool accessed via data4nr.net; Note that the counties in this chart are all those for which data is published.

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Hertfordshire

West Sussex

Dorset

North Yorkshire

Surrey

Hampshire

Norfolk

Warwickshire

Cambridgeshire

Lancashire

Oxfordshire

Devon

Minutes and seconds



7.4 The value of Oxfordshire’s environment

Oxfordshire is the least densely populated county in the South East region and at the time of the Census 2001 survey around half (52%) of its parishes were below 500 residents. South and West Oxfordshire are classified as amongst the most rural districts in England.

The natural environment is diverse - Oxfordshire includes:

a rich geological landscape including the Jurassic and Cretaceous periods;

extensive agricultural land (78% of land area);

three Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty (24% of land area);

a wide range of natural habitats and many of the UK’s Biodiversity Action Plan “Priority Habitat” types.

For businesses the local environment provides:

Employment in land-based businesses

Employment and income from tourism - an estimated 27,900 jobs and £1.56bn income for businesses in Oxfordshire;

An attractive place to do business – the 2010 Oxfordshire Employer Skills survey15 found 92% of business satisfied with Oxfordshire as a place to do business, up from 88% in 2008.

Agriculture and Forestry The Annual Business Inquiry reports just over 300 employees in Agriculture and Forestry, however the more detailed Agricultural Census (which includes all types of workers including casual) puts the employment in Agriculture in Oxfordshire at 5,217 (2009).

Between 1990 and 2009 this agricultural labour force in Oxfordshire declined by 18%, similar to the regional and national trends.

Tourism The 2008 report by Tourism South East on the impact of tourism on Oxfordshire found that:

The most significant development affecting the industry in 2008 was the onset of the global economic downturn and domestic holidays and leisure travel in general suffered.

15 Oxfordshire Employer Skills Study on behalf of Oxfordshire Economic Partnership by Step Ahead Research Ltd August 2010



In total tourism activity generated £1.56bn income for Oxfordshire’s businesses a growth of 4.4% on the previous year. This was despite a decline in the number of overnight domestic visitors.

o There were 2.4m overnight “staying” trips into Oxfordshire made up of 1.85m (-5%16) from other parts of the UK and 0.6m from outside the UK (+1.5%).

o Staying visitors spent £532m (+2.7%).

o There were 21.5 tourist day trips (+2.8%).

o Day visitors spent £773.5m (+5.9%)

o Expenditure by friends and relatives on visitors and visitors spend on second homes generated a further £60m.

o The great majority of the total expenditure by visitors: £1.27bn out of £1.3bn; directly benefitted local businesses (+4.3%) and a further £292m was generated through indirect and induced spending.

Tourism in Oxfordshire in 2008 supported 27,900 jobs (20,200 full time equivalent).

o Annual Business Inquiry data from ONS gives a slightly higher number of tourism jobs (28,400 as of 2007).

16 Percentages in this section represent the change between 2007 and 2008



7.5 Pressures on Oxfordshire’s environment

Population, households and car ownership The growth of the population in Oxfordshire has been significant and accompanied by changes in living arrangements and the number of cars per household.

The population of Oxfordshire (within the current boundary) has more than doubled since the 1940s and as of mid-2008 was estimated at 640 thousand residents.

In 1801 the average household in Oxfordshire was occupied by 5 people compared with 2.5 in 200117. This trend is to continuing and forecast to decline to 2.33 people per household by 2031.

As of 2001 the average number of cars per household was 1.3, up from 0.92 in 1981. In South Oxfordshire district the ratio was 1.5 cars per household.

Household and population forecasts for Oxfordshire predict that by 2031 there will be 83 thousand more households (compared with 2001) and the county will have 151 thousand more residents. This population change is equivalent to adding a new settlement around the size of Oxford city. Table 18 Population, households and cars in Oxfordshire 1981 to 2031

Population (000s)

Households (000s)

Population per household

Cars (census count)

Cars per household

1981 542 190 2.85 175 0.92

1991 576 220 2.62 246 1.12

2001 607 242 2.51 320 1.32

Projection

2011 660 268 2.46

2021 710 298 2.38

2031 758 325 2.33 430* 1.32

2001 to 2031 151 83 110

Sources: ONS mid-year estimates, ONS 2006-based population projections, Communities and Local Government Household projections, ONS Census surveys

*estimate based on 2001 census ratio of cars per household and CLG projected number of households by 2031

17 200 years of the Census in Oxfordshire ONS



The household projections imply an additional 110 thousand cars in Oxfordshire by 2031, an increase of 34%.

This assumes the ratio of cars per household remains the same as in 2001. It may be however that cars per household increases over this period as a consequence of an increase in the number of female driving licence holders.

Changing climate and weather events Data from the MetOffice shows an increase in the Central England temperature of about 1.1oC during the 20th century and an increase in summer rainfall (England and Wales) over the past 14 years.

Figure 33 Central England temperature

Source: Dept of Energy and Climate Change, data from MetOffice, released March 2010

Notes published with the temperature data: Central England Temperature is representative of a roughly triangular area of the United Kingdom. It is

enclosed by Bristol, Lancashire and London. The 2006 extended summer period was been the warmest on the long standing Central England Temperature

(CET) record dates back to 1659 and May to September 2006 has been warmer than any equivalent period since then. The 2006 period included the warmest month ever, July, and a record temperature for September.

During the 20th century, the annual mean central England temperature warmed by about 1.1° C. The 1990s were exceptionally warm in central England by historical standards, about 0.6° C warmer than the 1961-1990 average.

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Global Temperature

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1961 - 1990 Central England average (both after smoothing)

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Figure 34 Rainfall

Source: Dept of Energy and Climate Change, data from Hadley Centre, released March 2010

Notes published with the rainfall data:

Summer precipitation (July - August) has increased dramatically in the past decade. However, there have been more subtle changes in the winter (December - March) which have seen less prominent decreases in rainfall since the late 1970s.

In the last 14 years, summer rainfall has increased year-on-year. Since 2006, summer precipitation has been at least 22 per cent higher than the baseline. In the summer of 2009, rainfall was higher than it has been since 1892 (32.1 per cent higher than the 1961-1990 average).

Since 2004 winters have seen roughly 5 per cent less rain compared with the aforementioned baseline.

*please note, these comparisons use a smoothed data values for each year.

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A changing climate causes extreme weather events such as:

(a) high intensity rainfall leading to flooding.

o Oxfordshire has 12% of its land area within the floodplain and the Environment Agency’s National Flood Risk Assessment (Nafra) 2008 indicated that there are around 21,000 properties at risk from flooding (6% of all properties in the county) with just over 8,500 (40%) at “significant risk”.

(b) hot summers causing water shortages and deteriorating air quality.

o Data from Harwell shows a significant increase in ground level ozone in the hot summer of 2003.

o According to the Royal Society 2008 report on ground level ozone, children, the elderly and asthmatics are particularly vulnerable to ozone which affects the lungs, nose and eyes. In 2003 an estimated 1,600 UK deaths were attributed to ozone.

The Climate Impacts Profile for Oxfordshire published October 2006 estimated that the cost of over 260 weather events during the previous 10 years (including floods and the effects of high temperatures) was £16.4million.



Sustainability Oxfordshire’s ecological footprint area (the area needed to support demand for natural resources including water, energy and clean air) is approximately 14 times its land area.

Figure 35 Land area vs ecological footprint

Source: Stockholm Environment Institute as presented in Oxfordshire County Council’s 2009 “State of the Environment” presentation

Oxfordshire’s more rural districts have a relatively poor carbon footprint compared with the South East region. There are a number of issues with measuring and comparing carbon footprint – including, for example, embedded carbon in goods and services and the influence of rurality – which are noted for further investigation.

Table 19 Carbon footprint – Oxfordshire districts (2004)

Carbon Footprint (tonnes CO2/capita)

South Oxfordshire 13.93

West Oxfordshire 13.36

Vale of White Horse 13.20

South East 12.76

Cherwell 12.75

UK 12.08

Oxford 11.40

Source: Stockholm Environment Institute

Oxfordshire’s land area

260,500 ha

Oxfordshire’s ecological footprint area

3,539,358 gha

WORST

BEST



ANNEX 1: Definitions of sector groups The industry sector groups used for analysing the Annual Business Inquiry data have been sourced from Eurostat18 and compiled by the Oxfordshire Data Observatory.

Knowledge Intensive Sectors:

Industry code

Industry description

50 Water transport 51 Air transport 58 Publishing activities

59 Motion picture, video and television programme production, sound recording and music publishing activities

60 Programming and broadcasting activities 61 Telecommunications 62 Computer programming, consultancy and related activities 63 Information service activities 64 Financial service activities, except insurance and pension funding 65 Insurance, reinsurance and pension funding, except compulsory social security 66 Activities auxiliary to financial services and insurance activities 69 Legal and accounting activities 70 Activities of head offices; management consultancy activities 71 Architectural and engineering activities; technical testing and analysis 72 Scientific research and development 73 Advertising and market research 74 Other professional, scientific and technical activities 75 Veterinary activities 78 Employment activities 80 Security and investigation activities 84 Public administration and defence; compulsory social security 85 Education 86 Human health activities 87 Residential care activities 88 Social work activities without accommodation 90 Creative, arts and entertainment activities 91 Libraries, archives, museums and other cultural activities 92 Gambling and betting activities 93 Sports activities and amusement and recreation activities

18 http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_SDDS/en/htec_esms.htm

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_SDDS/Annexes/htec_esms_an3.pdf



Hi Tech manufacturing:

Industry code


211 Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products 212 Manufacture of pharmaceutical preparations 261 Manufacture of electronic components and boards 262 Manufacture of computers and peripheral equipment 263 Manufacture of communication equipment 264 Manufacture of consumer electronics

265 Manufacture of instruments and appliances for measuring, testing and navigation; watches and clocks

266 Manufacture of irradiation, electromedical and electrotherapeutic equipment 267 Manufacture of optical instruments and photographic equipment 268 Manufacture of magnetic and optical media 303 Manufacture of air and spacecraft and related machinery

Medium hi tech manufacturing:

Industry code


201 Manufacture of basic chemicals, fertilisers and nitrogen compounds, plastics and synthetic rubber in primary forms

202 Manufacture of pesticides and other agrochemical products 203 Manufacture of paints, varnishes and similar coatings, printing ink and mastics 204 Manufacture of soap and detergents, cleaning and polishing preparations, perfumes and toilet

preparations 205 Manufacture of other chemical products 206 Manufacture of man-made fibres 254 Manufacture of weapons and ammunition 271 Manufacture of electric motors, generators, transformers and electricity distribution and control

apparatus 272 Manufacture of batteries and accumulators 273 Manufacture of wiring and wiring devices 274 Manufacture of electric lighting equipment 275 Manufacture of domestic appliances 279 Manufacture of other electrical equipment 281 Manufacture of general purpose machinery 282 Manufacture of other general-purpose machinery 283 Manufacture of agricultural and forestry machinery 284 Manufacture of metal forming machinery and machine tools 289 Manufacture of other special-purpose machinery 291 Manufacture of motor vehicles 292 Manufacture of bodies (coachwork) for motor vehicles; manufacture of trailers and semitrailers



293 Manufacture of parts and accessories for motor vehicles 302 Manufacture of railway locomotives and rolling stock 304 Manufacture of military fighting vehicles 309 Manufacture of transport equipment n.e.c. 325 Manufacture of medical and dental instruments and supplies

Retail:

Industry code


471 Retail sale in non-specialised stores 472 Retail sale of food, beverages and tobacco in specialised stores 473 Retail sale of automotive fuel in specialised stores 474 Retail sale of information and communication equipment in specialised stores 475 Retail sale of other household equipment in specialised stores 476 Retail sale of cultural and recreation goods in specialised stores 477 Retail sale of other goods in specialised stores 478 Retail sale via stalls and markets 479 Retail trade not in stores, stalls or markets

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