peace river cumulative impact study

Peace River Cumulative Impact Study

DEP Bureauof Mine Restoration.

SubconsultantsSubconsultants

• HydroGeoLogic

• The Nature Conservancy (Brian Richter)

• EarthBalance

• Longman, Lewis & Walker, P.A.

• Avineon

• W. Dexter Bender (Tom Fraser)

OverviewOverview

• Project Background

• Key Watershed Stressors

• Project Approach

• CHNEP Involvement

Project BackgroundProject Background

• Study mandated in 2003 by the Florida Legislature

• Objective - assess the cumulative impactsof changes in landform and hydrology in the Peace River basin prior to DEP’s development of a Watershed Management Plan

• Plan Goals - enhance and protect the hydrology and ecology of the Peace River watershed– Recovery of baseflows and more natural

hydrology– Preservation and restoration of in-stream and

floodplain habitats

Primary Project ObjectivesPrimary Project Objectives

1. Conduct a thorough analysis of relevant available data and previous work

2. Use analytical tools to characterize status and trends in important watershed parameters

3. Qualify and quantify where possible the relative effects of key watershed stressors

4. Develop recommendations for improved regulatory framework

Analytical ApproachAnalytical Approach

Causative Effects(Flows, Water Quality,

Habitat)Level of

Uncertainty

Time SeriesTemporal / Spatial

Metrics ofChange

MultivariateAnalyses

Water BudgetUncertainty

ManagementAlternatives

DEP Watershed

ManagementPlan

Unique Basin CharacteristicsUnique Basin Characteristics

• Bone Valley Formation• Phosphate Mining

– Loss of large areas on contributing watershed

– Loss of streambed and floodplain habitat

– Reduction in recharge potential– Clay settling ponds and gypsum

stacks• Water quality degradation from spills• Increased losses from ET


• Water quality characteristic– High natural P concentrations– Increasing Si and K concentrations

• Historic artesian springs• Headwater flow diversions due to

urbanization• Increasing and more intense

agricultural land uses– Rangeland converted to citrus and row

crops– Agricultural runoff to tributaries


• Reductions in domestic wastewater discharges

• Reductions in mining discharges• Major potable water source for

large and growing population (PRMRWSA)

• Southern-half of the basin is the least impacted area of watershed

• Charlotte Harbor Estuary

Key Watershed StressorsKey Watershed Stressors

• Phosphate Mining– Direct habitat loss– Loss of contributing drainage area– Reduction in recharge potential

• Agriculture– Increases in baseflow to tributaries– Water quality changes

• Urbanization– Increases impervious surface– Increased pollutant loads

• Groundwater Withdrawals– Combined consumptive uses

• Long-Term Variation in Rainfall

Peace River1999 Land Use

Basin CharacteristicsBasin Characteristics

Phosphate Mining up to 1950Phosphate Mining up to 1950

.-, 4

(/27

(/98

"!60

"!37

"!39

(/30 1

"!39

"!674

"!640

"!62 "!6

"!630

"80

(/17

"!60

"!640

"!60

"!37(/ 17

"!62

"!636

LAKELAND

PLANTCITY

BARTOW

FORT MEADE

PIERCE

WINTER HEAVEN

ALTURAS

HILLSBOROUGH

POLK

MINEABLE LIMITPEACE RIVER WATERSHEDLAKEROADCITY

COUNTY LINERIVER

MINED NONMANDATORY LANDS

MINED MANDATORY LANDS

ACTIVE CLAY SETTLING AREAS

LANDS TOTALLY/PARTIALLY RECLAIMEDPEACE RIVER MINING AND RECLAMATION HISTORY

Phosphate Mining through 2000Phosphate Mining through 2000

.-, 4

(/27

(/98

"!60

"!37

"!39

(/30 1

"!39

"!674

"!640

"!62 "!6

"!630

"80

(/17

"!60

"!640

"!60

"!37(/ 17

"!62

"!636

LAKELAND

PLANTCITY

BARTOW

FORT MEADE

PIERCE

WINTER HEAVEN

ALTURAS

HILLSBOROUGH

POLK

MINEABLE LIMITPEACE RIVER WATERSHEDLAKEROADCITY

COUNTY LINERIVER

MINED NONMANDATORY LANDS

MINED MANDATORY LANDS

ACTIVE CLAY SETTLING AREAS

LANDS TOTALLY/PARTIALLY RECLAIMEDPEACE RIVER MINING AND RECLAMATION HISTORY

Approximately55% Reclaimed

Basin CharacteristicsBasin Characteristics

Basin Population TrendsBasin Population Trends

Population Trends in Peace River Watershed

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1900 2000

Year

Popu

latio

n CharlotteDeSotoHardeePolkTotal

Groundwater DeclinesGroundwater Declines

Potentiometric Surface DeclinesPotentiometric Surface Declines

20

40

60

80

100

120

Wat

er L

evel

(ft a

bove

NG

VD)

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80Approximate Distance (miles)

AVERAGE ('88-'92) PREDEVELOPMENT

LakeHancock

Charlotte Harbor

Polk Co. DeSoto Co. Charlotte Hardee Co.

Arcadia Fort Meade Bartow

Potentiometric Surface of the Upper FloridanAquifer along the Peace River

Upper Watershed - Losing RiverUpper Watershed - Losing River

Southern Water Use Caution AreaSouthern Water Use Caution Area

Study area lies wholly within the SWUCA region

Long-term Hydrologic PatternsLong-term Hydrologic Patterns

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)

Central Florida Rainfall by DecadeCentral Florida Rainfall by Decade

Changes in Flow PercentilesChanges in Flow Percentiles

Changes in Water QualityChanges in Water Quality

Water Quality vs. Time - ConductanceWater Quality vs. Time - Conductance

Peace River at Arcadia

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

8/1/

63

8/1/

66

8/1/

69

8/1/

72

8/1/

75

8/1/

78

8/1/

81

8/1/

84

8/1/

87

8/1/

90

8/1/

93

8/1/

96

8/1/

99

Cond

ucta

nce

(um

hos/

cm)

Watershed Stressor and MetricsWatershed Stressor and Metrics

Stressors• Mining• Agriculture• Urbanization• Climate Change

Metrics• Streamflow• Water quality• Groundwater

elevations• Miles of streambed• Acres of floodplain• Acres of wetlands• Acres of mined lands• Acres of agricultural

lands• Acres of urban lands

Sub-basin Based StudySub-basin Based Study

GIS Time Series Analysis ToolsGIS Time Series Analysis Tools

Tools used extensively by PBS&J for watershed time series analysis and modeling

ArcGIS 9.0 Time Series Time series tool for land

use, contributing area, etc.Attribute time series for

streamflow

Spatial Analyst:Zonal statistics for tracking

land use/cover through time.Summary statistics for

studying changing relationships through time.

Tracking Analyst:Animates/correlates

multiple layers changing through time.

Spatial Analyst Time SeriesSpatial Analyst Time Series

1945 1979

1990 1999

’45 to ’79= -33%

’90 to ’00 = -4%

’79 to ’90 = +4%

Task 1- Literature Review and Data Collection

Task 1- Literature Review and Data Collection

• Collect, check and organize existing information and create standardized data bases

• Develop comprehensive Access based bibliography

• Use previous and ongoing studies to develop basin specific conceptual surface and groundwater models

Task 2 – Description of Historical ChangesTask 2 – Description of Historical Changes

• Time series estimates of subbasin-specific changes in:– Rainfall patterns– Streamflow– Water quality– Point and non-point discharges– Drainage alterations– Consumptive surface and groundwater

uses– Land use/habitat

• Estimate regional changes in groundwater withdrawals

Task 3 – Identification and Analysis of Factors Causing Changes

Task 3 – Identification and Analysis of Factors Causing Changes

• Development of subbasin-specific water budgets to differentiate key hydrologic processes

• Effects of stressors are not distributed evenly among the various subbasins

Statistical analysis to assess relative magnitude of changesin response to watershed stressors

.

Task 4 – Evaluate Regulatory EffectivenessTask 4 – Evaluate Regulatory Effectiveness

• Old mined lands reclamation rules – pre 1975

• New mined lands reclamation rules

• CUP/WUP• ERP• CWA Section 404/10• TMDLs• Mitigation banking rules

Evaluating Regulatory EffectivenessEvaluating Regulatory Effectiveness

1. Select and review indicatormetrics and desired values– e.g., miles of streambed

2. Develop a consensus about gaps between indicators and desired values

3. Relate gaps to regulatory programs and authorizations

Evaluating Regulatory EffectivenessEvaluating Regulatory Effectiveness

4. Review program trends and how they may be closing gaps

5. Review benefits of non-regulatory approaches by resource agencies

6. Draft and test inferences (public involvement) and develop recommendations

Evaluate Use of BuffersEvaluate Use of Buffers

• Environmental benefits– Hydrology

• storage and attenuation of peak flows– Water quality

• assimilation of sediments and nutrients

– Habitat• wildlife corridors and habitat

connectivity– Recreation and aesthetics

Buffers IssuesBuffers Issues

• Legal Issues– Review SJRWMD buffer rules on Wekiva

and Econlockhatchee Rivers– Review legislative authority and make

recommendations

• Economic Impacts– Costs minus benefits = impacts– Use of IMPLAN model– Calculate buffer value as mitigation using

UMAM

Analytical ApproachAnalytical Approach

Causative Effects(Flows, Water Quality,

Habitat)Level of

Uncertainty

Time SeriesTemporal / Spatial

Metrics ofChange

MultivariateAnalyses

Water BudgetUncertainty

ManagementAlternatives

DEP Watershed

ManagementPlan

Task 5 - Public InputTask 5 - Public Input

• End of Tasks 1 and 2 – Agency and Stakeholder Workshop

• Task 3 – Technical Workshop of Causal Relationships

• Task 3 – Agency and Stakeholder Workshop on draft Technical Memorandum

• Task 4 – Agency and Stakeholder Workshop on draft Report

Project TimelineProject Timeline

• Project initiated in January 2005

• 12 month duration

• DEP Management Plan in January 2007

Peace River Cumulative Impact Study

DEP Bureauof Mine Restoration.

peace river cumulative impact study

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