Peak OilPeak Oil

Models to help understand Models to help understand peak oilpeak oil

Dr. Robert J. BrechaDr. Robert J. Brecha

University of DaytonUniversity of DaytonChautauqua Course, May 22-24, 2006

Some BasicsSome BasicsUS Oil Production

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999

Pro

du

ctio

n (

tho

usa

nd

bb

l/day

)

Lower 48

+Alaska

US Energy Information Agency: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/pet_frame.html

Many Countries Have Many Countries Have Peaked!Peaked!

US

UK

Indonesia

Iran?

http://www.bp.com/genericsection.do?categoryId=92&contentId=7005893

Venezuela

Association for the Study of Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO)Peak Oil (ASPO)

OPEC Proved Crude Oil OPEC Proved Crude Oil ReservesReserves

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100

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300

400

500

600

700

800

90019

80

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

Gb

bl

rese

rves

UAE

Venezuela

Saudi Arabia

Kuwait

Iraq

Iran

Energy Information Agency, posted March 2005, January 1, 1980 - January 1, 2005 Estimates

GaussianGaussian

US Oil production

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15

20

25

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

Qu

ad

rill

ion

Btu

/ye

ar

Gaussian Fit to US Gaussian Fit to US ProductionProduction

Gaussian Production(quadratic fit)

y = -0.0003x2 + 1.1875x - 1167.5

R2 = 0.9898

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Lo

gar

ith

m o

f p

rod

uct

ion

USGS and Cumulative USGS and Cumulative ProductionProduction

Hubbert’s Logistic CurveHubbert’s Logistic CurveLogistic Curve

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50

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250

1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

Gb

bl

tota

l p

rod

uct

ion

Logistic Curve

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250

1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

Gb

bl

tota

l p

rod

uct

ion

1980 Prediction

Logistic Curve

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250

1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

Gb

bl

tota

l p

rod

uct

ion

“Economic” argument: We will alwaysfind more and increase ultimate recovered amount

= kQ(1 – Q/Q∞)dQdt

Problem with Logistic Problem with Logistic CurvesCurves

At early stages, curves for widely differing total amounts may look very similar.

There are too many free fitting parameters

The Point Remains …The Point Remains …US 48 Oil Production

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7000

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9000

10000

1860 1910 1960 2010 2060

Th

ou

san

d b

arre

ls p

er d

ay

Hubbert LinearizationHubbert Linearization

http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/1/11/6047/13568

Q (Gbbl)

P = kQ(1 – Q/Q∞)

HL - TexasHL - Texas

http://graphoilogy.blogspot.com/

HL – US 48HL – US 48

HL – Saudi ArabiaHL – Saudi Arabia

HL - WorldHL - World

US Geological Survey US Geological Survey EstimatesEstimates

www.ihs.com

Bentley, Global Oil and Gas Depletion – an Overview, Energy Policy 30 (2002)

Rough Outline of the Rough Outline of the FutureFuture

USGS published reserve estimates in USGS published reserve estimates in 19981998

EIA uses those estimates, along with EIA uses those estimates, along with consumption patterns to predict future consumption patterns to predict future growthgrowth

A gap between predicted demand and A gap between predicted demand and predicted production appears by 2025predicted production appears by 2025

Gap is to be filled with a) Saudi Arabia Gap is to be filled with a) Saudi Arabia producing >20 MMbbl/day, and b) producing >20 MMbbl/day, and b) “unidentified unconventional” sources“unidentified unconventional” sources

Creaming CurvesCreaming Curves

One Prediction (1998)One Prediction (1998)

R.C. Duncan and W. Youngquist,“Encircling the Peak of World Oil Production,” Natural Resources Research 8, 219-233 (1999). Also by the same authors: “The World Petroleum Life-Cycle” http://www.dieoff.com/page133.pdf

Duncan and Youngquist Duncan and Youngquist PredictionsPredictions

Peaked prior to 1997Peaked prior to 1997 14 14 countriescountries

Recovered from peak after 1997Recovered from peak after 1997 0 countries0 countries

Predicted to peak 1998-2005Predicted to peak 1998-2005 16 16 countriescountries

Actually peaked between 1998-Actually peaked between 1998-20052005

11 11 countriescountries

Predicted to peak after 2005Predicted to peak after 2005 13 13 countriescountries

Predicted to peak after 2005, Predicted to peak after 2005, but have already peakedbut have already peaked

2 countries2 countries

Finding NorwaysFinding Norways

R.C. Duncan and W. Youngquist, “The World Petroleum Life-Cycle”http://www.dieoff.com/page133.pdf

Matthew Simmons – “Twilight in the Desert”

2/3 !

Peak ModelsPeak Models

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BP

USGS

A Brief History of OilA Brief History of Oil

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75

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22

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Bill

ion

ba

rre

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ye

ar

Keep Watching…Keep Watching…

http://www.theoildrum.com

Peak “Good” OilPeak “Good” Oil

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, August 2005