peak phosphorus 1 naomi radke, seecon international gmbh

Peak Phosphorus

Peak Phosphorus

1

Naomi Radke, seecon international GmbH

Peak Phosphorus

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Peak Phosphorus


Contents

1. Introduction

2. Methodology and Analysis

3. Impact

4. Sceptics of the Hubbert Curve

5. Future Management of Phosphorus

3

Peak Phosphorus


Why Phosphorus?

4

1. Introduction

All modern agricultural systems are dependent on continuous input of phosphorus fertiliser (P) as a nutrient for the plant.

Thus, without phosphorus fertiliser we

cannot produce food!Source: http://www.finegardening.com/how-to/articles/fertilizing-basics.aspx [Accessed: 06.03.2013]

Source: FALL (2009)

But, where does phosphorus come from ...?

Peak Phosphorus


Where does Phosphorus come from?

5

1. Introduction

Source: CORDELL et al. (2009)

Today, phosphorus fertiliser is primarily artificial, derived from phosphate rock.

Source: http://permaculturenews.org/2009/01/14/phosphorus-matters/ [Accessed: 07.03.2013]

Peak Phosphorus


Phosphate Rock Resources Worldwide

6

1. Introduction

http://aquat1.ifas.ufl.edu/guide/humimpac.html [Accessed: 29.09.2010]

Source: ROSEMARIN et al. (2009)

Peak Phosphorus


• Of all artificial fertilisers phosphorus is the most limited

• Predictions for supply worldwide vary from 130 years max. to only 60 years

7

1. Introduction

Phosphate Rock Resources Worldwide

Source: ECOSANRES (2008)

Peak Phosphorus


The Phosphorus Peak

Phosphate rock is a non-renewable resource.

Thus its derivation will have a

PEAK

8

1. Introduction

which•occurs when 50% of the resource is used up• from then on:

• production will • market prices will

•exact time of global peak is disputed

Currently, there are no considerable alternatives that could replace phosphate rock on the market!

Peak Phosphorus


The Phosphorus Peak

Peak phosphorus is calculated based on estimated P in current world phosphate rock reserves. Area under Hubbert curve = depleted P

9

2. Methodology and Analysis

The modelled Hubbert curve of phosphorus production and actual production (black dots) Source: CORDELL ET AL. (2009)

Estimated peak of global production:

in 2034

Peak Phosphorus


Fertiliser Prices affect Food Affordability

10

3. Impact

Fertiliser prices are bound to world market prices – how long can farmers from the “third world” afford them?Source: http://www.stockinterview.com/News/04262007/Ethanol-Fertilizer-Natural-Gas.html. [Accessed 31.05.2010]

Fertiliser prices are

rising continuous

ly.

Maurice Skelton

What are the SSWM-PPT-Guidelines for multiple slides covering the same subject?Please consider making slide titles such as:3. Impact (I of III)

Peak Phosphorus


World Rock Phosphate Production vs. World Population

11

3. Impact

• World Population () = World demand for phosphate fertilizers ()• Future conflicts on the access to phosphate are likely, due to the

limited reserves and the concentration of significant minable resources in a small number of countries. Source: WERNER et al. (n.y.)

Peak Phosphorus


Global Food Production vs. World Population

12

3. Impact

food crisis

World food production increases relatively more than world population When peak phosphorus occurs, it will lead to a

Source: http://www.psc.isr.umich.edu/events/archive/2011/paa/david_lam.html

Peak Phosphorus


What is the Link to Peak Oil?

13

3. Impact

Peak Phosphorus•No replacement of

phosphorus as fertiliser for food production

•Recyclable (within economic and technical limits)

Peak Oil•Replacement with other

forms of energy possible (e.g. biofuels, renewable energies)

•Not recyclable Link!

Oil price increased (due to proximity of peak oil) demand for biofuel crop production increased demand in phosphorus fertilisers increased phosphorus peak comes closer

Peak Phosphorus


Does a Peak truly exist for Scarce Resources?

Sceptics of the peak claim that:

• one scarce resource can infinitely be replaced by another resource (according to neoclassical economic theory)

BUT: there is no replacement for phosphorus in order for plants to grow

• peaks exist but occur in the distant future

STILL

the Hubbert Curve with its peak gains traction as oil price drastically increased in the last years.

14

4. Sceptics of the Hubbert Curve

Peak Phosphorus


The Current Situation

15


NPK

The current system is inefficient!

one-way street!

Peak Phosphorus


Opportunities for Improving Efficiency

16


NPK

closing the phosphorus cycle

efficiency in mining and processing phosphate rock

Peak Phosphorus


Examples of Closing the Phosphorus Cycle

17

Capturing human and animal excreta

• e.g. Urine diversion and faeces dehydration for application as fertilizer

Capturing food and crop residues

• e.g. Composting

Source: TILLEY et al. (2008)


Source: GREEN PARENTHOOD (2010)

Peak Phosphorus


Case studies of Capturing Human and Animal Excreta

18


Case study large-scale (Adapted from :RICHERT (2009); HORT (n.y.))

• Ecological Tenant-Owner’s Society, Stockholm, Sweden•Housing complex with 32 flats•Technology: urine-diverting dehydrating porcelain toilet

with flush (0,1 l/flush) for urine and dry faeces collection•Urine stored in a large tank under the house•Urine transported to a farm 3-4 times a year where it is

stored in large reservoirs and applied to the fields in spring

Peak Phosphorus


Case studies of Capturing Human and Animal Excreta

19


Case study small-scale (Adapted from TILLEY et al. (2008))

• Allotment gardens in Cagayan de Oro, Philippines•Toilets on 9 self-sustaining allotment gardens for 100

poor urban families•technology: double-vault urine-diverting dehydrating toilet,

waterless urinal from recycled plastic container for men•Urine stored in container under the toilet house (can be

used after 1 month storage), faeces (sawdust and lime added for drying) dries for one year in a vault under the toilet house

•diluted urine and dried faeces used for fertilizing the garden

Peak Phosphorus


Case study of Capturing food and crop residues

20


Case study small-scale (Adapted from KINOBE et al. (2010))

• Composting at households in Kitgum Town, Uganda•9 households composting their solid organic household waste

(primarily food waste)•self-built compost heaps with windrow method (see middle

photo)•4-5 months until organic waste turns into compost. Compost

can be used as fertilizer•Steps:

Source: KINOBE et al. (2010) Source: KINOBE et al. (2010)

preparation of waste degradation of waste

curing and screening of compost

Peak Phosphorus


The Challenge: Time Frame

... in order for the system to become more efficient,

the infrastructure has to be given !

Currently, the time frame used in the markets (e.g. fertiliser market) and governmental institutions is short-term (5-10 years). Therefore, phosphorus scarcity is not yet addressed adequately in policies and market actions.

A long-term (50-100 years) time frame is required in order to understand, manage adapt the current system in a timely way and thus to feed humanity without compromising the environment, livelihoods and economies.

21


Think long-term!

Peak Phosphorus


The Challenge: Integrated Solutions

22


... in order for the system to become more efficient,

the infrastructure has to be given !

International institutional arrangements are INCONSISTENT with natural phosphorus cycle: Division

Agricultural sector

phosphorus= fertiliser commodity

Water & Sanitation sectorphosphorus = pollutant in wastewater

Opportunity for integrated solutions!

Source: RICHERT (2009)

Peak Phosphorus


5. ReferencesCORDELL, D., DRANGERT, J.-O., WHITE, S. (2009): The story of phosphorus: Global food security and food for thought. In: Global

Environmental Change 19, 292-305. Available at: http://www.sswm.info/sites/default/files/reference_attachments/CORDELL%20et%20al%202009%20%20The%20story%20of%20phosphorus.pdf [Accessed: 05.03.2013]

ECOSANRES. (2008): Closing the loop on phosphorus. (=EcoSanRes Factsheet, No. 4). Harare (Zimbabwe): Stockholm Environment Institute EcoSanRes Programme. Available at: http://www.ecosanres.org/factsheets.htm [Accessed: 27.09.2010]

FALL, A. (2009): Urban Urine Diversion Dehydration Toilets and Resuse Ouagadougou Brukina Faso - Draft. Eschborn: Sustainable Sanitation Alliance (SuSanA). Available at: http://www.susana.org/images/documents/06-case-studies/en-susana-cs-armenia-hayanist-school.pdf [Accessed: 07.03.2013]

GREEN PARENTHOOD (Editor) (2010): 11 Green New Years Resolutions For 2011. Available at: http://www.greenparenthood.com/blog/2010/12/29/11-green-new-years-resolutions-for-2011/ [Accessed: 30.03.2011]

HORT, N. ; EKBO (Editor) (n.y.): Alternatives to Conventional Wastewater Systems. Stockholm: Ecological Tenant-Owners’ Society in Orhem. Available at: http://www.sswm.info/sites/default/files/reference_attachments/URINE%20LARGE%20SCALE%20Stockholm%20Sweden.pdf [Accessed: 11.03.2013]

KINOBE, J.; OLWENY, S.; NIWAGABA, C. (2010): Composting at Households in Kitgum Town, Uganda - Draft. Eschborn: Susana. Available at: http://www.susana.org/images/documents/06-case-studies/en-susana-cs-uganda-kitgum-town-composting-at-households-2010.pdf [Accessed: 11.03.2013]

PHADKE, S. (2009): Poo. Pune: Aman Setu Publication. Available at: http://www.susana.org/lang-en/library?view=ccbktypeitem&type=2&id=706 [Accessed: 05.03.2013]

RICHERT, A.; EcoSanRes (Editor); Richert Miljoekompetens (Editor) (2009): Large Scale Handling of Urine and Faeces. (pdf presentation). Stockholm: Stockholm Environmental Institute. Available at: http://www.sswm.info/sites/default/files/reference_attachments/RICHERT%202009%20Large%20scale%20application.pdf [Accessed: 11.03.2013]

ROSEMARIN, A. BRUIJNE, DE G., CALDWELL, I. (2009): Peak Phosphorus. The next inconvenient truth. In: The Broker Magazine, Issue 15. Leiden: IDP.Available at: http://www.thebrokeronline.eu/Articles/Peak-phosphorus [Accessed: 11.03.2013]

TILLEY, E.; LUETHI, C.; MOREL, A.; ZURBRUEGG, C.; SCHERTENLEIB, R. (2008): Compendium of Sanitation Systems and Technologies. Duebendorf and Geneva: Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology (EAWAG). Available at: http://www.eawag.ch/forschung/sandec/publikationen/index [Accessed: 15.02.2010]

WERNER, C. ,MANG, H. P., KLINGEL, F., BRACKEN, P. (n.y.): General Overview about ecosan. PowerPoint Presentation. Eschborn: Ecological Sanitation Programme of the German Agency for Technical Cooperation (GTZ) GmbH

Peak Phosphorus 24

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