perspective from mexico air quality forecasting program
DESCRIPTION
Perspective from Mexico Air Quality Forecasting Program. Potomac , MD US November 28 — December 1, 2011. Dr. José Agustín García Reynoso Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera UNAM. Topics. Pollution in MCMA Importance of Air quality forecast Methods Learned lessons Future work. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Perspective from Mexico Air Quality Forecasting Program
Potomac, MD USNovember 28 — December 1, 2011
Dr. José Agustín García ReynosoCentro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera UNAM
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Topics
• Pollution in MCMA• Importance of Air quality forecast• Methods• Learned lessons• Future work
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The Pollution Problem in MCMA: O3
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PM2.5
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Air Quality Forecast Importance
• In Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) the ozone levels have exceeded the standard (110 ppb) on 50% of the days in 2010. The programs to prevent the environmental contingencies are applied after the people have been exposed to high ozone levels.
• An air quality forecast it is necessary in order to reduce exposure to ozone and other air pollutants
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Methods used for Air Quality Forecast
• Statistical (SMA)• Analog (SMA)• Numerical modeling (CCA-UNAM)
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Analog Forecast Technique
• Requiring the forecaster to remember a previous weather event which is expected to be mimicked by an upcoming event.
• Also called as pattern recognition
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Analogues Identification
Registro y análogos de la serie de tiempo de ozono (Periodo actual 63-86, Periodo futuro 87-158) Source: Pérez Sesma (Personal comunication)
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SMA Forecast
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Use of WRF-Chem with METv3 evaluation code
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Air Quality Forecast Domain
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AQ forecast web page
National Level:Ozone
Central Mexico:Ozone PM2.5
http://www.atmosfera.unam.mx/procca/Ozono.php
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Willmott et al. 1981
Root Mean Square Difference
Standard deviation
The performance of the model is considered to be high if σp ≈σo, while RMSD< σo
(Pielke, 1984)
Forecast Evaluation
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Net gross error
Normalized Bias
Index of Agreement
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Learned Lessons• Meteorological aspects– Confluences– Fumigation
• Influence in A.Q from– Large point sources (i.e. Tula´s Energy Sector,
Popocatepetl volcano)– Area sources (i.e. bare soil lands, Toluca city)– Forest-City interaction
• Chemical Mechanism
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METEOROLOGICAL ASPECTS
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17
Measured distribution of surface Ozone and wind vectors (SIMAT)
13:00 LST January 29th, 2001
Confluences
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Locally Induced Surface Air Confluence By Complex Terrain and its Effect on Air Pollution in the Valley of Mexico”, Aron D. Jazcilevich, Agustín R. García, Ernesto Caetano, Atmospheric Environment, 39, pp. 5481-5489, 2005
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Pollutants vertical FugationMCMA
“A study of air flow patterns affecting pollutant concentrations in the Central Region of México”, Aron D. Jazcilevich, Agustín García, L.Gerardo Ruiz-Suárez, Atmospheric Environment, 37, pp. 183-193, 2003
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Land Use Change airport+lake (Feb26, 1997)
Land-Lake breeze influence
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LARGE POINT SOURCESEmissions Identification
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BacktrajectoriesFrom Tula region
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Bactrajectories From Volcano influence
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Ash Forecast
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AREA SOURCESEmissions Identification
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Emissions MCMA
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Emissions MCMA
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Emissions MCMA + Toluca
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Ic improvement
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Soil dust emissions
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FOREST – CITY INTERACTIONEmissions Identification
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NOx
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Isopreno
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Ozono
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Chemical Mechanism
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FUTURE WORK
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To Do
• Combining 2 or more forecast• Nesting domains• Updating emissions inventories• Fire emissions during fires season• Web page with performance results