Population and SocietyPopulation and Society

4 Major Causes of 4 Major Causes of Environmental ChangeEnvironmental Change

1.1. Population changePopulation change

2.2. InstitutionsInstitutions

3.3. Attitudes, values, belief systemsAttitudes, values, belief systems

4.4. Technological changeTechnological change

Carrying CapacityCarrying Capacity The maximum number The maximum number

of organisms an of organisms an environment can environment can supportsupport..

But highly dependent on But highly dependent on technology, there is no set technology, there is no set carrying capacity, technology carrying capacity, technology increases productionincreases production

Thomas Malthus (1766-Thomas Malthus (1766-1834)1834)

An Essay on PopulationAn Essay on Population (1798). (1798). Wrote at beginning of the 19Wrote at beginning of the 19thth century, century,

when population growth and industry when population growth and industry were raising demands for food faster were raising demands for food faster than English agriculture could respond.than English agriculture could respond.

Human population would always Human population would always increase exponentially (the larger it gets increase exponentially (the larger it gets the faster it grows) while the supply of the faster it grows) while the supply of food and land would only increase food and land would only increase “arithmetically” (additively)“arithmetically” (additively)

Scarce farmlandScarce farmland

Overuse of resourcesOveruse of resources

Poverty and human miseryPoverty and human misery

Each increase in food Each increase in food supply only meant that more supply only meant that more people could live in povertypeople could live in poverty

Cultural Carrying CapacityCultural Carrying Capacity

““There should be no more people in a country There should be no more people in a country than could enjoy a daily glass of wine and a than could enjoy a daily glass of wine and a piece of beef for dinner.” --Thomas Malthuspiece of beef for dinner.” --Thomas Malthus

Cultural carrying capacity is smaller Cultural carrying capacity is smaller

than simple carrying capacity.than simple carrying capacity.

World Population Growth RatesWorld Population Growth Rates

Population growth rates measured by annual increase in a country’s population are highest in Africa and Middle East. Growth rates are flat in U.S., Europe, and former Soviet Union

World Population Growth Doubling World Population Growth Doubling TimeTime

1800-18501800-1850 1 billion1 billion 1930 1930 2 billion2 billion 1960 (30 years)1960 (30 years) 3 billion3 billion 1974 (14 years)1974 (14 years) 4 billion4 billion 1986 (12 years)1986 (12 years) 5 billion5 billion 1999 (13 years)1999 (13 years) 6 billion6 billion

The current increase of the Earth’s human population The current increase of the Earth’s human population in either absolute or relative terms, vastly exceeds the in either absolute or relative terms, vastly exceeds the average increases over most of human history. average increases over most of human history.

Nobody saw this coming. Nobody saw this coming. InIn 1936 demographers predicted that the world 1936 demographers predicted that the world

population 2.645 billion people by the end of the 21st population 2.645 billion people by the end of the 21st century (we hit that by 1955).century (we hit that by 1955).

1950 estimate 3.3 billion by 2000 (off by 50%.)1950 estimate 3.3 billion by 2000 (off by 50%.)

World Population GrowthWorld Population Growth

Growth rate was at all time peak of 2.1% Growth rate was at all time peak of 2.1% between 1965-1970 (between 1965-1970 (TheThe Population BombPopulation Bomb by Paul by Paul Ehrlich, 1968).Ehrlich, 1968).

Predicted Predicted "in the 1970s and 1980s and 1980 "in the 1970s and 1980s and 1980 hundreds of millions of people will starve to hundreds of millions of people will starve to death", that nothing can be done to avoid mass death", that nothing can be done to avoid mass famine greater than any in the history, and famine greater than any in the history, and radical action is needed to limit the radical action is needed to limit the overpopulation. ( a neo-Malthusian position)overpopulation. ( a neo-Malthusian position)

The growth rate has since declined to about 1.2% The growth rate has since declined to about 1.2% per year.per year.

Global fertility rates are falling: from 5 children per Global fertility rates are falling: from 5 children per woman per lifetime in 1950-55 to 2.7 children in woman per lifetime in 1950-55 to 2.7 children in 2000-20052000-2005

Absolute annual increase in population peaked Absolute annual increase in population peaked around 1990 at 86 million and has fallen to 77 around 1990 at 86 million and has fallen to 77 million.million.

In 1960, five countries had total fertility rates at or In 1960, five countries had total fertility rates at or below the required level required to replace the below the required level required to replace the population in the long run. population in the long run.

By 2000 there were 64 such countries with 44% of By 2000 there were 64 such countries with 44% of world populationworld population

Beginning-High Birth Beginning-High Birth rates, high death ratesrates, high death rates

Transition-High birth Transition-High birth rates, low death ratesrates, low death rates

(By 1900, life (By 1900, life expectancy at birth was expectancy at birth was 40-50 years, today it is 40-50 years, today it is 78 years for women 78 years for women and 71 for men and and 71 for men and rising rapidly).rising rapidly).

Third Stage-low death Third Stage-low death rates, low birth ratesrates, low birth rates

The Demographic Transition Model

Why has the world’s population Why has the world’s population increased by so much?increased by so much?

The Demographic Transition Model The Demographic Transition Model

People didn’t start having more babies, more People didn’t start having more babies, more people began to survive.people began to survive.

Demographic Transition ContinuedDemographic Transition ContinuedWhat makes the death rate What makes the death rate

decrease?decrease?

1)1) Increased productivityIncreased productivity: agriculture can : agriculture can support larger populations than beforesupport larger populations than before

2)2) Advances in the control of epidemic diseasesAdvances in the control of epidemic diseases and improvement in public health, death and improvement in public health, death control: antibiotics, biocide DDT to control control: antibiotics, biocide DDT to control insect vectors of infection, vaccines against insect vectors of infection, vaccines against smallpox, measles, whooping cough, and smallpox, measles, whooping cough, and drugs that cured tuberculosis and malariadrugs that cured tuberculosis and malaria

Demographic Transition ContinuedDemographic Transition ContinuedWhat makes the birth rate decrease?What makes the birth rate decrease?

1)1) As As people become urbanizedpeople become urbanized children go children go from being an economic asset, to becoming from being an economic asset, to becoming an economic burdenan economic burden

2)2) Cultural normsCultural norms that encouraged a women to that encouraged a women to have large numbers of children weakened.have large numbers of children weakened.

3)3) Increasing opportunities for womenIncreasing opportunities for women: low : low status of women=economic dependence and status of women=economic dependence and higher birthrates. higher birthrates.

The Six Commandments of The Six Commandments of Population ControlPopulation Control

1.1. Promote Contraceptives.Promote Contraceptives. 2.2. Develop EconomiesDevelop Economies 3. Save Children3. Save Children 4.4. Empower and Educate WomenEmpower and Educate Women 5.5. Educate MenEducate Men 6. Do all of the above 6. Do all of the above

The Population DebateThe Population Debate

Neo-Malthusian: Neo-Malthusian: our capacity to our capacity to produce food cannot keep up produce food cannot keep up with our reproductive capacity.with our reproductive capacity.

Population growth is a severe Population growth is a severe threatthreat

There are limits to the physical There are limits to the physical capacity of the planet to sustain capacity of the planet to sustain growthgrowth

Population growth is also a major Population growth is also a major cause of environmental cause of environmental degradationdegradation

Explaining World HungerExplaining World Hunger

Agricultural modernization perspective argues that Agricultural modernization perspective argues that the world hunger problem is caused by the world hunger problem is caused by not enough not enough food produced by traditional agriculturefood produced by traditional agriculture

Another major factor lies not in the quantity of food, Another major factor lies not in the quantity of food, but the but the distribution of fooddistribution of food..

Where is most population growth in the Where is most population growth in the US from?US from?

According to the census According to the census bureau, post-1970 bureau, post-1970 immigrants and their immigrants and their descendents will account descendents will account for over 80% of US for over 80% of US population growthpopulation growth between now and mid between now and mid 2121stst century. century.

Migration: Population Growth in Migration: Population Growth in the USthe US

1994: US Commission on 1994: US Commission on Immigration Reform declared: “We Immigration Reform declared: “We disagree with those who would disagree with those who would label efforts to control immigration label efforts to control immigration as being inherently anti-immigrant. as being inherently anti-immigrant. Rather it is both a right and a Rather it is both a right and a responsibility of a democratic responsibility of a democratic society to manage immigration so it society to manage immigration so it serves national interest.” serves national interest.”

Population growth in the USPopulation growth in the US

According to surveys by the Wall Street According to surveys by the Wall Street Journal and the Latino National Political Journal and the Latino National Political Survey: Survey: Clear majorities of African Americans Clear majorities of African Americans and Latinos favor reductions in legal and and Latinos favor reductions in legal and illegal immigration.illegal immigration.

The Politics of PopulationThe Politics of Population 1974: The First UN Conference on Population1974: The First UN Conference on Population

Developing countries rejected the Neo-Developing countries rejected the Neo-Malthusian position, that poor countries are Malthusian position, that poor countries are poor because of overpopulation. poor because of overpopulation. Instead, Instead, poverty causes overpopulationpoverty causes overpopulation. . Redistribution of wealth is neededRedistribution of wealth is needed. . Birth control vs. wealth controlBirth control vs. wealth control

Today, many developing countries are actively Today, many developing countries are actively trying to limit population.trying to limit population.

China’s one child policyChina’s one child policy

Today’s World PopulationToday’s World Population

World POPClock ProjectionWorld POPClock Projection According to the According to the

International Programs CenterInternational Programs Center, U.S. Bureau of , U.S. Bureau of the Census, the Census, http://opr.princeton.edu/popclock/

Will Malthus always be wrong? Current Will Malthus always be wrong? Current Declines in World Population Growth Declines in World Population Growth

RateRate

How Big will the Population Get? How Big will the Population Get? TrendsTrends

The global total fertility rate fell from 5 children per The global total fertility rate fell from 5 children per woman per lifetime in 1950-55 to 2.7 children in woman per lifetime in 1950-55 to 2.7 children in 2000-2005.2000-2005.

Absolute annual increase in population peaked Absolute annual increase in population peaked around 1990 at 86 million, and more recently is at 77 around 1990 at 86 million, and more recently is at 77 millionmillion

64 countries with 44% of total population now have 64 countries with 44% of total population now have fertility rates below those needed to replace fertility rates below those needed to replace populationpopulation

More TrendsMore Trends

More than half of the annual increase currently More than half of the annual increase currently occurs in six countries: India, China, Pakistan, occurs in six countries: India, China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nigeria, and the US (but US only Bangladesh, Nigeria, and the US (but US only 4%).4%).

Population Growth ScenariosPopulation Growth Scenarios

Fertility at current Fertility at current levels= 12.8 billion by levels= 12.8 billion by 2050.2050.

Medium projection-8.9 Medium projection-8.9 billion by 2050 assumes billion by 2050 assumes family planning efforts family planning efforts will continue and will continue and suceed, fertility suceed, fertility continues to drop..continues to drop..

Most optimistic Most optimistic prediction7.066 billionprediction7.066 billion

More than half of annual increase in six More than half of annual increase in six countries: India, China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, countries: India, China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nigeria, and the US (mostly from Nigeria, and the US (mostly from immigration)immigration)

Will Food Production Keep Up?Will Food Production Keep Up?

Will Malthus always be Wrong?Will Malthus always be Wrong?