ppma annual seminar 2014 - workforce planning in an uncertain future
TRANSCRIPT
Don’t let ‘people’ get in the way of implementing your business strategy:Strategic Workforce Planning (SWP) as part of an integrated approach to business planningPPMA Master Class – May 2014
Business performance enablement
Objectives
Page 2
► To give an introduction into:
► SWP and the benefits it can deliver
► How to carry out SWP in environments that are complex and dynamic
Business performance enablement
Contents
Page 3
1 The goal: Right resources to deliver – in uncertain times
2 What is Strategic Workforce Planning (SWP)?
3 Why SWP – Why now?
4 Business Planning and SWP
5 Benefits of SWP
6 Applying SWP to the challenges faced by local government
7 Q & A
8 Review and Close
Business performance enablement
Complex and dynamic business environments need a different approach to planning workforce supply and demand
Page 4
Organisations frequently focus too much on a limited number of potential future states and exclude more radical options
The current business climate demands consideration of multiple options and response to sudden changes in strategic direction
Traditional ‘Manpower Planning’ struggles to deal with uncertainty and changes in strategic direction
Strategic Manpower Planning (SWP) provides the means to include analysis of the ‘improbable’ and ‘unknown’. Focusing on systematic scenario planning of multiple options to generate resource plans which can flex to external change.
Business performance enablement
Strategic Workforce Planning aligns development of the workforce to business strategy
Page 5
What is workforce planning?
► SWP is a process to improve alignment of workforce and business strategies.
► SWP provides quantitative insight into opportunities to enhance productivity.
► SWP ensures risks to implementation relating to people are considered up front
Why is Strategic Workforce Planning (SWP) Important?To ensure organisations have business strategies that incorporate a quantified understanding of the global workforce
How is it different?
SWP is based on proven statistical analysis of complex data sets and the principles of Management Science.
It includes use of:► Systematic Scenario Planning► Risk analysis and Mitigation Plans► Econometrics► Statistical Analysis► Forecasting► Operational Research
Business performance enablement
Strategic Workforce Planning is a critical part of a business strategy focused on the delivery of growth and productivity
Page 6
Benefits DriversCosts► Provides insight into the operating model, skills
and workforce mix that will deliver ‘Value for Money’
► Uncover hidden possibilities for reducing cost within even tighter budgetary constraints when pay is a key expense
Productivity► Understaffing / overtime avoided
Customer Satisfaction and compliance► Reducing service quality risk► Reducing compliance risk► Commissioning new services quicklyPeople► Improved employee engagement► Correct skills► Reduced hire and training costs
Business Model Change
1
Reduced staff costs2
Enhanced productivity3
Improved talent pipeline
4
Typical Scenarios:
Business performance enablement
Today workforce plans emerge as an enabler to the delivery of a business strategy based on business drivers
Page 7
Culture Change management | Communication
Business strategy
Performance optimization
Business driversStrategic
review
Talent availability
Business model change
Enhanced business sustainability
Increased flexibility to respond to changing market demands
Reduced people risk exposure
Reduced people cost
Capability to capture new markets and revenues
Increased productivityDeclineMaturity
Growth
Start-up
Business plan
People plan
People and talent management initiatives
HR operating model
Enabling business
performance
through people
Strategic scenario
modelling
People strategy option
analysis
Workforce planning and productivity
management CoEs
Integrated people
programmes, policies and
plans
Bespoke analytics
(KPIs analysis)
Enabling technology
Workforce planning
Workforce productivity
analysis
1. Interrogate and influence the
business strategy
2. Develop and refresh the people strategy
3. Prepare and execute the HR plan
Business results
3 May 2023
Strategic Workforce Planning ensures a quantified understanding of supply and demand of skills fully integrated into an interactive business planning process
Page 8
Work Demand
Staff Productivity &Targets
Future Workforce Supply
People Supply –
Future Workforce Requirements
Future Work Trends
Modelling & Analytics
Scenario planning, Productivity Analysis
Forecasts & ProjectionsImpact Analysis
1. Understanding the ‘As-Is’ 2. Testing options and scenarios
3. Looking at possible future needs
Demand Projections
Operating Model
Test scenarios of future demand and performance
‘As Is’ analysis of historic data, business constraints and assumptions
Evaluation of solutions and comparison of options and scenarios
People Strategy OptionsResourcing options, HR policy
change, Operating Model change
Business performance enablement
Capacity Gap / Surplus
Business performance enablement
Strategic Workforce Planning can provide value adding solutions to a range of business challenges
Page 9
Business drivers Example people challenges Strategic Workforce Planning solution
Strategic review •Workforce skill set•Workforce cost base
Create board level engagement in robust strategic planning with early engagement of HR
Business model change
•Workforce planning does not deliver labour supply
•Global Location strategy
Well tested plans that increase success in implementation, boosting credibility with stakeholders and investors
Performance optimization
•Low productivity•Ineffective scheduling
Internal benchmarking to uncover hidden opportunities to reduce costs
Talent availability •Scarcity of talent •Attrition of key skills
Use of analytics to identify factors impacting supply and demand in key skills areas leading to improved talent management
Business performance enablementPage 10
SWP provides a framework to find answers to the challenges raised in the IES/PPMA Working Group Study.
RequiredWorkforce
CurrentWorkforce
Alignmen
t
Evidence
Risk Mgt
General PublicAnd Government
Current EmployeesOur Community
DEMAND• Volumes, costs, quality of
services• Positive public perception• Government support
PEOPLE SUPPLY• Skills: affordability and
availability• Work patterns• Employee expectations /
behaviours
CHANGE PLAN• Costed Talent strategy• Sourcing Strategy• Risk Mitigation
Modelling Workforce Demand – Understanding current and future needs
Page 11
Workforce Demand
Benchmarks
Expert Opinion
Productivity Analysis
Outputs
Analysis
Inputs
Bringing together a range analytical tools and techniques, our approach focuses on understanding what is driving the need for resources, including ► Staff productivities across roles and
services ► Differences in planned demand across
services and how these affect productivity
► The impact of physical constraints, eg population centres and local resource requirements
► Base requirements and specific needs across services
► Demographic development and usage trends and how these will affect workforce demand through scenario modelling
Our approach brings together business strategy with historic data and scenario modelling to understand future demands
Trends in delivery of
public services
External Developments
Historic Data on Service Delivery
Business Strategy
Operating Model
Forecasts of demand for services
Structural Constraints
Requirements & Working
Regulation
Business performance enablement
Modelling People Supply – Understanding staff developments and efficiencies
Page 12
People Supply
Outputs
Analysis
Inputs
Projections
Data Analysis
Our approach enables an understanding of the key drivers of staff behaviours and forecasts staff and skill availability
Analysing staff behaviours and developments to develop a projection of staff and skill availability in the future, including► Attrition rates and trends across age
groups, locations and departments► Shifts, working regulations, current
practises and collective agreements► Key skills and skill mix including the need
for specialists► Tenure and typical career progression of
staff, implications of extended absence due to training
► Teams and collaborative working across departments and services
Staff
TenureAttritionLeave, trainingRoles &
Specialities and skills
Working regulation
Business performance enablement
Business performance enablement
Example: SWP in Commissioning within Health and Social Care
Page 13
This demands a “pressure tested” workforce strategy and people plan aligned with the business strategy:
►What operating model, skills, workforce and location mix will provide the best value for money and still meet health and social care standards?
►Where do the people risks lie in placing those bets?
►Where do the threats to your organisation lie as you have to deliver under increasing budgetary pressures?
The public spotlight is on health and social care providers:
►To provide high quality Health and Social Care under increasing stress of demographic changes, an ageing population and a divergence between where services could be delivered and where they are being delivered.
►To make sure that the organisations meet Health and Social care standards in the face of major quality concerns and ensuring the workforce is well trained.
►To save costs and deliver within ever tighter budgetary constraints when pay is the main expense
Modelling of workforce demand Understanding current and future Care needs
Page 14
Workforce Demand
Benchmarks(NMDS)
Expert Opinion
Productivity Analysis
Outputs
Analysis
Inputs
Bringing together a range analytical tools and techniques, our approach focuses on understanding what is driving the need for resources, including: ► The impact of demographics on health
and social care demand► Priorities from local people
(commissioning effectively)► The impact of physical constraints, eg
beds or locations, ► Impact of compliance regulation
Our approach brings together your business strategy with historic data and scenario modelling to understand your future demand and operations
Priorities from local people
Requirements & Regulation
Provider landscapeDemographics
Health and Social Care requirements
Structural Constraints such as beds, location
Business performance enablement
Modelling of People Supply Understanding staff developments and supply
Page 15
People Supply
Outputs
Analysis
Inputs
Projections
Data Analysis
Our approach enables an understanding of the key drivers of staff behaviours and forecasts staff and skill availability
Analysing staff behaviours and developments to develop a projection of staff and skill availability in the future, including► Attrition rates and trends across age
groups, locations and specialties► Shifts working regulation and current
practises► Key skills and skill mix across
specialties, e.g. care workers► Tenure and typical career progression of
staff, implications of extended absence due to training
► Health and Social care regulation
Staff
TenureAttritionLeave, trainingCapability and
skills requirements
Health and Social care regulation
Business performance enablement
The Steps to Embed Strategic Workforce Planning
Business performance enablementPage 16
Business Strategy
WorkforceStrategy
People Plan
2. Analyse Drivers
3. Evaluate Strategic Impact
5. Evaluate Delivery Options
4. Develop HR
Initiatives
6. Implement
7. Measure and
Feedback Results
► Use the existing business strategy to deliver steps 1 -3.
► In parallel, develop People Plan (4,5) and share Workforce Strategy with Key Stakeholders
► Implement plan, measure effectiveness and feedback outcomes (6,7).
► Ensure feedback influences the next iteration of the business strategy.
Feedback costs, risks and constraints
Work Demand
Staff Productivity &Targets
Future Workforce Supply
People Supply –
Future Workforce Requirements
Future Work Trends
Modelling & Analytics
Scenario planning,ProductivityAnalysis
Forecasts & ProjectionsImpact Analysis
1. Understanding the ‘As-Is’ 2. Testing options and scenarios
3. Looking at possible future needs
Demand Projections
Operating Model
Test scenarios of future demand and performance
‘As Is’ analysis of historic data, business constraints and assumptions
Evaluation of solutions and comparison of options and scenarios
People Strategy OptionsResourcing options, HR policy
change, Operating Model change Capacity Gap / Surplus
1. Gather Data
Create
an id
entifi
ed
busin
ess d
eman
d
3 May 2023
Example of how SWP can be used to develop answers and support employee dialogue to gain ‘buy – in’ …
Page 17
Scenario modelling allows you to see future risks and
opportunities
17
Test the impact of different future scenarios and
people plans on requirements and costs
Analysis and reports providing stakeholders all the evidence required for informed decision making
Create highly visual planning sessions
where issues can be identified quickly
1
2
3
4
Business performance enablement
… and enables clearer decisions and improved
► Increasing workforce efficiency by providing the workforce with the right skills at the right costs
► Improved productivity through improved prioritisation of tasks and resource usage
► New insights into shift planning and rostering► Accurate financial information for budgeting and costing
Model Output Benefits
Workforce requirements► Staff requirements for each speciality by roles, skills
set and location over time► Staffing gaps and surpluses across the organisation► Projections of future demand and requirements in
alternative scenarios► Current and future projections of total staff costs to
the organisation across functions
► Improved productivity by closing capacity gaps and reducing surpluses
► Improved control and visibility through consistent consolidated information enabling continuous improvement
► Identification of best practise across the organisation
► Improved understanding of staff availability developments to inform recruitment decisions
► Identification of problems with talent management, diversity, absence or retention strategies
► New insights in succession planning and improved trainings planning
Productivity metrics► Productivity KPIs for each organisational speciality
and key roles► Internal benchmarking and ranking of productivity for
comparable services
Workforce dynamics► Forecast of staff and role distribution across
speciality / role over time without intervention► Staffing projections accounting for retention changes► Staff absence and issue reports
Business performance enablement