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Predictors of customer perceived software quality

Paul Luo Li (ISRI – CMU) Audris Mockus (Avaya Research)Ping Zhang (Avaya Research)

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Need to View Quality from the Customer’s Perspective

… We translate these advanced technologies into value for our customers …

-IBM (#9 on the Fortune 500)

… Our strategy is to offer products, services and solutions that are high tech, low cost and deliver the

best customer experience. -HP (#11 on the Fortune 500)

… We deliver unparalleled value to our customers. Only by serving our customers well do we justify our existence as a business

-Avaya (#401 on the Fortune 500)

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What Would be Ideal

Predict customer perceived qualityUsing customer characteristicsFor each customer

Key idea: Focus on the customer

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Possible Applications of Predictions

How do I plan deployment to meet the quality expectations of the customer?

How do I target improvement efforts?

How do I allocate the right resources to deal with customer problems

Predict customer experience for each customer

Identify possible causes of problems

Predict customer interactions

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Solutions for Software Producers

How do I plan deployment to meet the quality expectations of the customer?

How do I target improvement efforts?

How do I allocate the right resources to deal with customer problems

Predict customer experience for each customer

Identify possible causes of problems

Predict customer interactions

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To Improve Customer Perceived Quality

How do I plan deployment to meet the quality expectations of the customer?

How do I target improvement efforts?

How do I allocate the right resources to deal with customer problems

Predict customer experience for each customer

Identify possible causes of problems

Predict customer interactions

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Gaps in Current Research

Prior work examined: Software defect prediction for a single

customer (Musa et al. 1987, Lyu et al. 1996)

Software defect prediction for modules or features (Jones et al. 1999, Khoshgoftaar et al. 1996)

Is not scalable

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Not Focused on Customers

Prior work examined: Software defect prediction for a single

customer (Musa et al. 1987, Lyu et al. 1996)

Software defect prediction for modules or features (Jones et al. 1999, Khoshgoftaar et al. 1996)

Tell us nothing about a specific customer

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Does not Capture other Aspects of Customer Perceived Quality Prior work examined:

Software defect prediction for a single customer (Musa et al. 1987, Lyu et al. 1996)

Software defect prediction for modules or features (Jones et al. 1999, Khoshgoftaar et al. 1996)

Does not predict other aspects of customer perceived quality that are not code related.

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Research Contributions

Predict software defects for each customer in a cost effective manner

Predict other aspects of customer perceived quality for each customer

Empirically validate deployment, usage, software, and hardware predictors

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Rest of This Talk

The setting Customer interactions (outputs) Customer characteristics (inputs) Results Conclusion

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Empirical Results from a Real World Software System Avaya telephone call processing software

system7 million+ lines of C/C++Fixed release schedule

Process improvement efforts Tens of thousands of customers

90% of Fortune 500 companies use it Professional support organization

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Data Used are Commonly Available

Customer issue tracking system Trouble ticket database

The equipment database Change management

Sablime database

Data collected as a part of everyday operations

Data sources available at other organizations e.g.

IBM and HP

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Data collected as a part of everyday operations

Data sources available at other organizations e.g.

IBM and HP

At Other Organizations Customer issue tracking system

Trouble ticket database The equipment database Change management

Sablime database

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Customer Interactions (Outputs) We assume customer interaction == customer

perceived quality Five customer interaction (Chulani et al. 2001,

Buckley and Chillarege 1995) within 3 month of deployment Software defects: high impact problem System outages: high impact problem Technician dispatches Calls Automated alarms

Important for Avaya and likely for other organizations as well

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Examine Customer Installations

Months after general availability

Num

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f dep

loym

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5

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Capture Characteristics of Each Installation

Months after general availability

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Customer 1: Deployed first month, a Large system, Linux…Customer 2: Deployed first month, a Small system, Windows…Customer 3: Deployed first month, a Large system, Proprietary Os…Customer 4: Deployed first month, a Small system, Linux…Customer 5: Deployed first month, a Large system, Linux…

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Analyze Using Statistical Analysis

Months after general availability

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loym

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Customer 1: Deployed first month, a Large system, Linux…Customer 2: Deployed first month, a Small system, Windows…Customer 3: Deployed first month, a Large system, Proprietary Os…Customer 4: Deployed first month, a Small system, Linux…Customer 5: Deployed first month, a Large system, Linux…

Similarities Differences

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Category of Predictors (Kinds of Inputs) We examine:

Deployment issues Usage patterns Software platform Hardware configurations

Prior work examines: Software product Development process

Common sense issues, but lack empirical validation

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Category of Predictors (Kinds of Inputs) We examine:

Deployment issues Usage patterns Software platform Hardware configurations

Prior work examines: Software product Development process

Key idea: From the customer’s perspective, they are not good predictors (i.e. do not vary for a single release)

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Specific Predictors (Inputs) Total deployment time

deployment issues Operating system

software platform, hardware configurations System size

hardware configurations, software platform, usage patterns

Ports usage pattern, hardware configurations

Software upgrades deployment issue

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Recap

Predict for each customer (outputs): Software defects System outages Technician dispatches Calls Automated alarms

Using Logistic regression and Linear regression

Using predictors (inputs): Total deployment time Operating system System size Ports Software upgrades

For a real world software system

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Example: Field Defect Predictions

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Predictors

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Nuisance Variables

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All Predictors are Important

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The Most Important Predictor

Total deployment time (deployment issue) Systems deployed half way into our observational

period are 13 to 25 times less likely to experience a software defect

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May Enable Deployment Adjustments

Total deployment time (deployment issue) Systems deployed half way into our observational

period are 13 to 25 times less likely to experience a software defect

May be due to software patching, better tools, more experienced technicians

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Another Important Predictor

Total deployment time (deployment issue) Operating system (software platform, hardware

configurations) Systems running on the proprietary OS are 3 times

less likely to experience a software defect compared with systems on running the open OS (Linux)

Systems running on the commercial OS (Windows) are 3 times more likely to experience a software defect compared with systems running on the open OS (Linux)

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May Allow for Targeted Improvement or Improved Testing Total deployment time (deployment issue) Operating system (software platform, hardware

configurations) May be due to familiarity with the operating system May be due to operating system complexity

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More Results in Paper

The complete results and analyses for field defects

Predictions for other customer interactions

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Validation of Results and Method

We accounted for data reporting differences Included indicator variables in the models to identify

populations (e.g. US or international customers) We independently validated the data collection

process Independently extracted data and performed analyses

We interviewed personnel to validate findings Programmers Field technicians

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Summary: Identified Predictors of Customer Perceived Quality We identified and quantified characteristics,

like time of deployment, that can affect customer perceived quality by more than an order of magnitude

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Summary: Modeled Customer Interactions

We identified and quantified characteristics , like time of deployment, that can affect customer perceived quality by more than an order of magnitude

We created models that can predict various customer interactions and found that predictors have consistent effect across interactions

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Summary: Deployment is Important for High Reliability We identified and quantified characteristics ,

like time of deployment, that can affect customer perceived quality by more than an order of magnitude

We created models that can predict various customer interactions and found that predictors have consistent effect across interactions

We learned that controlled deployment may be the key for high reliability systems

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Improve Customer’s Experiences

You can target improvement efforts You can allocate the right resources to deal

with customer reported problems You can adjust deployment to meet the quality

expectations of your customers

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Predictors of customer perceived software quality

Paul Luo Li (paul.li@cs.cmu.edu) Audris Mockus (Avaya Research)Ping Zhang (Avaya Research)

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Predicted Number of Calls Match Actual Number of Calls

Calls for the next release

Calls

Time

Predictions are made here