presentation julyboston2010towfs
TRANSCRIPT
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Moving from Foresight to Strategy
sustainablefuture.info
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New Zealand
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20
40
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60
0
80
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Alpine zone
Tussock
Scrub, wetlands and dunes
Exotic grassland
Settlements and crops
Exotic forest
Native forest
Tota
l la
nd
are
a
(%)
Main periodof Maori
expansion
Main periodof European expansion
Land Use
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Treaty of Waitangi 1840
On 6 February 1840, the Treaty was signed between representatives of Queen Victoria and approx 500 Māori, (13 were women).
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Māori King Movement 1858
King Tāwhiao (1822 – 1894)
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Julius Vogel (1835-1899)
Vogel implemented an immigration and works scheme designed to revive the economy.
“We considered it very desirable, in a young country, that wealth should not be in the hands of a few capitalists [who]…would leave the country, and enjoy elsewhere the wealth so accumulated.”
Prime Minister 1873
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1976-1982 Commission for the Future
2009 National Job Summit
2008 One Goal Project
1991 Porter analysis – Upgrading New Zealand’s Competitive Advantage
2001 Knowledge Wave Conference
2007- 2010 Sustainable FutureProject 2058 - Aims to develop a National Sustainable Development Strategy (NSDS)
2010200019901980
The New Zealand Experience
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Sustainable Future Institute Is an independent think tank specializing in research and policy analysis.
Project 2058 The strategic aim is to promote integrated long-term thinking,
leadership and capacity-building so that New Zealand can effectively explore and manage risks and opportunities over the next 50 years. The method to achieve this aim is to produce a National Sustainable Development Strategy.
PresentationPart I: ResearchPart II: Scenarios Part III: Strategy
About Sustainable Future Institute
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(c) Future Thinkers
Online Video Interviews: World Futures
(July 2008 and July 2009)
Online Video Conversations: Ideas about the Future
(December 2008)
James Duncan Reference Library
(October 2009)
A History of Future Thinkers in New Zealand
Project 2058 – The Method Part
I: Researc
h
Part II: Scenario
s
Part III: Strategy
(d) State of New Zealand’s Future*
The Future of Infrastructure in New Zealand*
Report 9 Government-funded Science Under the Microscope*
Report 10 The State of New Zealand’s Resources*
The Future of Food and Agriculture*
The State Sector: Looking Forward*
(b) New Zealand’s National Assets
Report 1 A National Sustainable Development Strategy (2007)
(a) New Zealand’s Government
Report 2 New Zealand Central Government Strategies
(2007)
Report 3 Supporting Local Government (2008)
Report 4 Institutions for Sustainable Development
(2008)
Report 5 The Common Elements of an NSDS (2008)
National Sustainable Development Strategy for New Zealand*
Report 6 Four Possible Futures for New Zealand in 2058 (2008)
Report 7 Exploring the Shared Goals of Māori (2010)
Report 8 Effective Māori Representation in Parliament,
(2010)
A History of Future Thinkers in New Zealand*
Online Video Interviews:World Futures
(2008 and 2009)
Online Video Conversations: Ideas about the Future
(2008)
James Duncan Reference Library(2009)
(c) Future Thinkers
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Wild Cards 15. Pandemic
16. Tsunami17. Drought18. Volcanoes and earthquakes19. Astronomical events 20. Extreme weather21. Terrorism, Biological and chemical warfare
Global Drivers of Change
8. Political systems and institutions9. Economic models10. Management of ecosystems and resources11. Infrastructure12. Security and conflict13. Technology14. Information, learning and ideas
Secondary Change Agents
1. Climate change2. Population and demographics3. Ecosystems and biodiversity4. Energy5. Resources6. Values and beliefs7. Justice and freedom
Primary Change Agents
Part I: Research
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Climate Change
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Population
New Zealand has one of the highest rates of combined immigration and emigration (population turnover) in the world.
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Population – First Nation People
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Ecosystems and BiodiversityNational Park Year Est. Area (km2)
Abel Tasman 1942 225
Mount Cook 1953 707
Arthur's Pass 1929 1144
Egmont 1900 335
Fiordland 1952 12519
Kahurangi 1996 4520
Mount Aspiring 1964 3555
Nelson Lakes 1956 1018
Paparoa 1987 306
Raikiura 2002 1500
Te Urewera 1954 2127
Tongariro 1887 796
Westland Tai Poutini
1960 1175
Whanganui 1986 742
Total Area in Parks 30669 11%
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Petajoules
1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
Year
New Zealand Primary Energy Supply 1974 - 2009
Hydro Geothermal Other Renewables Coal Oil Gas Waste Heat
Primary Energy Supply
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Resources
Total number of livestock per country per person as at 30 June 2007
(Includes all cattle, sheep, and pigs)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
NewZealand
Australia Ireland Brazil* UK France China** USA India*
Total number per person
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Our Indigenous People
1. Whakapapa
2. Kaupapa
3. Kaitiakitanga
1. Me titiro whakamuri tatou. Kia mohio ai.
Me pehea haere ki mua(Walking Backwardsinto the Future)
Values and Beliefs
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By knowing who
or what you
belong to
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Public Voice
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Damn the DamTiwai Point Aluminium Smelter uses 15% of New Zealand's electricity
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Economics - Exports & Imports
2008 Exports
Dairy 22%
Meat 11.7%
Mineral Fuels 6.6%
Wood 5.0%
Machinery 4.8%
Aluminium 3.6%
Fruit 3.4%
2008 Imports
Fuels and oils 16%
Machinery 13%
Motor vehicles 12%
Electrical machinery 8.5%
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Impacts (Who pays for pollution, loss of diversity, loss of options)
Quantity(Value Add)
Quality(Assurance)
WaterAir
Soil
Agriculture
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Number of treaties over time in New Zealand
0
10
20
30
40
50
1856 1866 1876 1886 1896 1906 1916 1926 1936 1946 1956 1966 1976 1986 1996
Part 1: Multilateral Treaties Part 2: Bilateral Treaties
International Treaties
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Security and Conflict
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Technology
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TotalHuman
Development IndexIncludes
Education Index
Disparity of income(ratio of richest 10%
to poorest 10%)
IncludesRST expenditure
(% GDP)
IncludesGDP (per capita)
(UNDP Human Development Report, 2007/2008)
(UNDP Human Development Report, 2007/2008)
(UNDP Human Development Report, 2009)
(UNDP Human Development Report, 2007/2008)
(UNDP Human Development Report, 2007/2008)
1. Iceland (0.968) 1= Australia (0.993) 1. Azerbaijan (2.9) 1. Israel (4.46) 1. Luxembourg (60 228)
3. Australia (0.962) 1= New Zealand (0.993)2. Japan (4.5)
20. Australia (1.70) 16. Australia (31 794)
16. United Kingdom (0.946)
6. Norway (0.991) 34. India (8.6) 25. Russia (1.17) 27. UAE (25 514)
19. New Zealand (0.943)
12. Iceland (0.978) 72. New Zealand (12.5) 26. New Zealand (1.16) 28. New Zealand (24 996)
20. Italy (0.941) 18. UK (0.970) 94. United States (15.9)
27. Ukraine (1.16) 29. Greece (23 381)
177. Sierra Leone (0.336)
177. Burkina Faso (0.255)
142. Namibia (106.6) 91. Peru (0.10) 174. Malawi (667)
Benchmarking: Human Development
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1
3
2030 2058
Scenarios
Possible
Probable
Possible
2009
2
4
Part II: Scenarios
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The Team
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Well World
NZ
Well
Poor
Poor
FailFail
Fail
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Responses of Powerful counties– Self-sufficient, heavily armed and a fortress
mentality– Serious engagement with all the problems of the
planet
Responses of Small counties– Disrupt– Ignore– Adapt / Innovate
• Monitor closely what is happening• Support global leadership (UN, WB, etc)• Build alliances (e.g. State of Australia, Pacific Union)
– Leadership - lead by example
Indicators
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Small countries like New Zealand might have a limited ability to influence world events…
…but we can still shape the future.
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New Zealand will never be the puppeteer…
…but we can be part of the audience, and that means we can decide to give a standing ovation or boo the performance.
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We can show global players how changes should be made – not because they have to listen to us…
…but because small countries have put in place something that powerful countries want.
•
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New Zealandneeds a
‘National Strategy’to optimise our future,to align our industry,
to reinforce our national brand and to be an example of what is possible
- not because we have to, but because we want what it can deliver
Part III: Strategy
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Three Questions
Question 1: What lifestyle do we want for ourselves, our children and our grandchildren?
Question 2: What we are going to sell to the world that fits with those values? - Food and Fibre (consumption)
- Tourism (experience )- Technology (skills and
IP) Question 3: How are we going to make
this work?
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