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Radiation Physiology and Effects ENAE 697 - Space Human Factors and Life Support U N I V E R S I T Y O F MARYLAND Radiation Physiology and Effects Sources and types of space radiation Effects of radiation Shielding approaches Recent advances in understanding of radiation and its affects 1 © 2015 David L. Akin - All rights reserved http://spacecraft.ssl.umd.edu

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Page 1: Radiation Physiology and Effects€¦ · Lunar Regolith Shielding for SPE 28 –, Human Integration Design Handbook, NASA SP-2010-3407, Jan. 2010. Radiation Physiology and Effects

Radiation Physiology and Effects ENAE 697 - Space Human Factors and Life Support

U N I V E R S I T Y O FMARYLAND

Radiation Physiology and Effects• Sources and types of space radiation!• Effects of radiation!• Shielding approaches!• Recent advances in understanding of radiation and

its affects

1

© 2015 David L. Akin - All rights reserved http://spacecraft.ssl.umd.edu

Page 2: Radiation Physiology and Effects€¦ · Lunar Regolith Shielding for SPE 28 –, Human Integration Design Handbook, NASA SP-2010-3407, Jan. 2010. Radiation Physiology and Effects

Radiation Physiology and Effects ENAE 697 - Space Human Factors and Life Support

U N I V E R S I T Y O FMARYLAND

The Origin of a Class X1 Solar Flare

2

Page 3: Radiation Physiology and Effects€¦ · Lunar Regolith Shielding for SPE 28 –, Human Integration Design Handbook, NASA SP-2010-3407, Jan. 2010. Radiation Physiology and Effects

Radiation Physiology and Effects ENAE 697 - Space Human Factors and Life Support

U N I V E R S I T Y O FMARYLAND

The Earth’s Magnetic Field

Ref: V. L. Pisacane and R. C. Moore, Fundamentals of Space Systems Oxford University Press, 1994

3

Page 4: Radiation Physiology and Effects€¦ · Lunar Regolith Shielding for SPE 28 –, Human Integration Design Handbook, NASA SP-2010-3407, Jan. 2010. Radiation Physiology and Effects

Radiation Physiology and Effects ENAE 697 - Space Human Factors and Life Support

U N I V E R S I T Y O FMARYLAND

The Van Allen Radiation Belts

Ref: V. L. Pisacane and R. C. Moore, Fundamentals of Space Systems Oxford University Press, 1994

4

Page 5: Radiation Physiology and Effects€¦ · Lunar Regolith Shielding for SPE 28 –, Human Integration Design Handbook, NASA SP-2010-3407, Jan. 2010. Radiation Physiology and Effects

Radiation Physiology and Effects ENAE 697 - Space Human Factors and Life Support

U N I V E R S I T Y O FMARYLAND

Cross-section of Van Allen Radiation Belts

Ref: V. L. Pisacane and R. C. Moore, Fundamentals of Space Systems Oxford University Press, 1994

5

Page 6: Radiation Physiology and Effects€¦ · Lunar Regolith Shielding for SPE 28 –, Human Integration Design Handbook, NASA SP-2010-3407, Jan. 2010. Radiation Physiology and Effects

Radiation Physiology and Effects ENAE 697 - Space Human Factors and Life Support

U N I V E R S I T Y O FMARYLAND

Electron Flux in Low Earth Orbit

Ref: V. L. Pisacane and R. C. Moore, Fundamentals of Space Systems Oxford University Press, 1994

6

Page 7: Radiation Physiology and Effects€¦ · Lunar Regolith Shielding for SPE 28 –, Human Integration Design Handbook, NASA SP-2010-3407, Jan. 2010. Radiation Physiology and Effects

Radiation Physiology and Effects ENAE 697 - Space Human Factors and Life Support

U N I V E R S I T Y O FMARYLAND

Heavy Ion Flux

Ref: Neville J. Barter, ed., TRW Space Data, TRW Space and Electronics Group, 1999

Background Solar Flare

7

Page 8: Radiation Physiology and Effects€¦ · Lunar Regolith Shielding for SPE 28 –, Human Integration Design Handbook, NASA SP-2010-3407, Jan. 2010. Radiation Physiology and Effects

Radiation Physiology and Effects ENAE 697 - Space Human Factors and Life Support

U N I V E R S I T Y O FMARYLAND

Radiation Units• Dose D= absorbed radiation!!!

• Dose equivalent H= effective absorbed radiation!!!!!

• LET = Linear Energy Transfer <KeV/µ m>

8

1 Gray = 1Joule

kg= 100 rad = 10, 000

ergs

gm

1 Sievert = 1Joule

kg= 100 rem = 10, 000

ergs

gm

H = DQ rem = RBE � rad

Page 9: Radiation Physiology and Effects€¦ · Lunar Regolith Shielding for SPE 28 –, Human Integration Design Handbook, NASA SP-2010-3407, Jan. 2010. Radiation Physiology and Effects

Radiation Physiology and Effects ENAE 697 - Space Human Factors and Life Support

U N I V E R S I T Y O FMARYLAND

Radiation Quality Factor

9

Radiation QX-rays 1

5 MeV γ-rays 0.51 MeV γ-rays 0.7

200 KeV γ-rays 1Electrons 1Protons 2-10

Neutrons 2-10α-particles 10-20

GCR 20+

Page 10: Radiation Physiology and Effects€¦ · Lunar Regolith Shielding for SPE 28 –, Human Integration Design Handbook, NASA SP-2010-3407, Jan. 2010. Radiation Physiology and Effects

Radiation Physiology and Effects ENAE 697 - Space Human Factors and Life Support

U N I V E R S I T Y O FMARYLAND

Radiation in Free Space

10

Page 11: Radiation Physiology and Effects€¦ · Lunar Regolith Shielding for SPE 28 –, Human Integration Design Handbook, NASA SP-2010-3407, Jan. 2010. Radiation Physiology and Effects

Radiation Physiology and Effects ENAE 697 - Space Human Factors and Life Support

U N I V E R S I T Y O FMARYLAND

Radiation Dose vs. Orbital Altitude

Ref: Neville J. Barter, ed., TRW Space Data, TRW Space and Electronics Group, 1999

300 mil (7.6 mm) Al shielding

11

Page 12: Radiation Physiology and Effects€¦ · Lunar Regolith Shielding for SPE 28 –, Human Integration Design Handbook, NASA SP-2010-3407, Jan. 2010. Radiation Physiology and Effects

Radiation Physiology and Effects ENAE 697 - Space Human Factors and Life Support

U N I V E R S I T Y O FMARYLAND

Dosage Rates from Oct/Nov 2003 SPE

12

Page 13: Radiation Physiology and Effects€¦ · Lunar Regolith Shielding for SPE 28 –, Human Integration Design Handbook, NASA SP-2010-3407, Jan. 2010. Radiation Physiology and Effects

Radiation Physiology and Effects ENAE 697 - Space Human Factors and Life Support

U N I V E R S I T Y O FMARYLAND

SPEs in Solar Cycles 19, 20, and 21

13

Page 14: Radiation Physiology and Effects€¦ · Lunar Regolith Shielding for SPE 28 –, Human Integration Design Handbook, NASA SP-2010-3407, Jan. 2010. Radiation Physiology and Effects

Radiation Physiology and Effects ENAE 697 - Space Human Factors and Life Support

U N I V E R S I T Y O FMARYLAND

GCR Constituent Species

14

Page 15: Radiation Physiology and Effects€¦ · Lunar Regolith Shielding for SPE 28 –, Human Integration Design Handbook, NASA SP-2010-3407, Jan. 2010. Radiation Physiology and Effects

Radiation Physiology and Effects ENAE 697 - Space Human Factors and Life Support

U N I V E R S I T Y O FMARYLAND

Solar Max/Min GCR Proton Flux Ratio

15

Page 16: Radiation Physiology and Effects€¦ · Lunar Regolith Shielding for SPE 28 –, Human Integration Design Handbook, NASA SP-2010-3407, Jan. 2010. Radiation Physiology and Effects

Radiation Physiology and Effects ENAE 697 - Space Human Factors and Life Support

U N I V E R S I T Y O FMARYLAND

Radiation Damage to DNA

16

Page 17: Radiation Physiology and Effects€¦ · Lunar Regolith Shielding for SPE 28 –, Human Integration Design Handbook, NASA SP-2010-3407, Jan. 2010. Radiation Physiology and Effects

Radiation Physiology and Effects ENAE 697 - Space Human Factors and Life Support

U N I V E R S I T Y O FMARYLAND

Symptomology of Acute Radiation Exposure• “Radiation sickness”: headache, dizziness, malaise,

nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, lowered RBC and WBC counts, irritability, insomnia!

• 50 rem (0.5 Sv)!– Mild symptoms, mostly on first day!– ~100% survival!

• 100-200 rem (1-2 Sv)!– Increase in severity and duration!– 70% incidence of vomiting at 200 rem!– 25%-35% drop in blood cell production!– Mild bleeding, fever, and infection in 4-5 weeks

17

Page 18: Radiation Physiology and Effects€¦ · Lunar Regolith Shielding for SPE 28 –, Human Integration Design Handbook, NASA SP-2010-3407, Jan. 2010. Radiation Physiology and Effects

Radiation Physiology and Effects ENAE 697 - Space Human Factors and Life Support

U N I V E R S I T Y O FMARYLAND

Symptomology of Acute Radiation Exposure• 200-350 rem (2-3.5 Sv)!

– Earlier and more severe symptoms!– Moderate bleeding, fever, infection, and diarrhea at 4-5

weeks!• 350-550 rem (3.5-5.5 Sv)!

– Severe symptoms!– Severe and prolonged vomiting - electrolyte imbalances!– 50-90% mortality from damage to hematopoietic system if

untreated

18

Page 19: Radiation Physiology and Effects€¦ · Lunar Regolith Shielding for SPE 28 –, Human Integration Design Handbook, NASA SP-2010-3407, Jan. 2010. Radiation Physiology and Effects

Radiation Physiology and Effects ENAE 697 - Space Human Factors and Life Support

U N I V E R S I T Y O FMARYLAND

Symptomology of Acute Radiation Exposure• 550-750 rem (5.5-7.5 Sv)!

– Severe vomiting and nausea on first day!– Total destruction of blood-forming organs!– Untreated survival time 2-3 weeks!

• 750-1000 rem (7.5-10 Sv)!– Survival time ~2 weeks!– Severe nausea and vomiting over first three days!– 75% prostrate by end of first week!

• 1000-2000 rem (10-20 Sv)!– Severe nausea and vomiting in 30 minutes!

• 4500 rem (45 Sv)!– Survival time as short as 32 hrs - 100% in one week

19

Page 20: Radiation Physiology and Effects€¦ · Lunar Regolith Shielding for SPE 28 –, Human Integration Design Handbook, NASA SP-2010-3407, Jan. 2010. Radiation Physiology and Effects

Radiation Physiology and Effects ENAE 697 - Space Human Factors and Life Support

U N I V E R S I T Y O FMARYLAND

Long-Term Effects of Radiation Exposure• Radiation carcinogenesis!

– Function of exposure, dosage, LET of radiation!

• Radiation mutagenesis!– Mutations in offspring!– Mouse experiments show doubling in mutation rate at

15-30 rad (acute), 100 rad (chronic) exposures!

• Radiation-induced cataracts!– Observed correlation at 200 rad (acute), 550 rad (chronic)!– Evidence of low onset (25 rad) at high LET

20

Page 21: Radiation Physiology and Effects€¦ · Lunar Regolith Shielding for SPE 28 –, Human Integration Design Handbook, NASA SP-2010-3407, Jan. 2010. Radiation Physiology and Effects

Radiation Physiology and Effects ENAE 697 - Space Human Factors and Life Support

U N I V E R S I T Y O FMARYLAND

Radiation Carcinogenesis• Manifestations!

– Myelocytic leukemia!– Cancer of breast, lung, thyroid, and bowel!

• Latency in atomic bomb survivors!– Leukemia: mean 14 yrs, range 5-20 years!– All other cancers: mean 25 years!

• Overall marginal cancer risk!– 70-165 deaths/million people/rem/year!– 100,000 people exposed to 10 rem (acute) -> 800

additional deaths (20,000 natural cancer deaths) - 4%

21

Page 22: Radiation Physiology and Effects€¦ · Lunar Regolith Shielding for SPE 28 –, Human Integration Design Handbook, NASA SP-2010-3407, Jan. 2010. Radiation Physiology and Effects

Radiation Physiology and Effects ENAE 697 - Space Human Factors and Life Support

U N I V E R S I T Y O FMARYLAND

NASA Radiation Dose Limits

22

Page 23: Radiation Physiology and Effects€¦ · Lunar Regolith Shielding for SPE 28 –, Human Integration Design Handbook, NASA SP-2010-3407, Jan. 2010. Radiation Physiology and Effects

Radiation Physiology and Effects ENAE 697 - Space Human Factors and Life Support

U N I V E R S I T Y O FMARYLAND

Density of Common Shielding Materials

23

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Polyethyle

neWate

rGr/E

p

Acrylic

s

AluminumLea

d

Page 24: Radiation Physiology and Effects€¦ · Lunar Regolith Shielding for SPE 28 –, Human Integration Design Handbook, NASA SP-2010-3407, Jan. 2010. Radiation Physiology and Effects

Radiation Physiology and Effects ENAE 697 - Space Human Factors and Life Support

U N I V E R S I T Y O FMARYLAND

Comparative Thickness of Shields (Al=1)

24

0

1

2

3

Polyethyle

neWate

rGr/E

p

Acrylic

s

AluminumLea

d

Page 25: Radiation Physiology and Effects€¦ · Lunar Regolith Shielding for SPE 28 –, Human Integration Design Handbook, NASA SP-2010-3407, Jan. 2010. Radiation Physiology and Effects

Radiation Physiology and Effects ENAE 697 - Space Human Factors and Life Support

U N I V E R S I T Y O FMARYLAND

Comparative Mass for Shielding (Al=1)

25

0

1

2

3

4

5

Polyeth

ylene

Water

Gr/Ep

Acrylics

Aluminu

mLe

ad

Page 26: Radiation Physiology and Effects€¦ · Lunar Regolith Shielding for SPE 28 –, Human Integration Design Handbook, NASA SP-2010-3407, Jan. 2010. Radiation Physiology and Effects

Radiation Physiology and Effects ENAE 697 - Space Human Factors and Life Support

U N I V E R S I T Y O FMARYLAND

Effective Dose Based on Shielding

26

Francis A. Cucinotta, Myung-Hee Y. Kim, and Lei Ren, Managing Lunar and Mars Mission Radiation Risks Part I: Cancer Risks, Uncertainties, and Shielding Effectiveness NASA/TP-2005-213164, July, 2005

Page 27: Radiation Physiology and Effects€¦ · Lunar Regolith Shielding for SPE 28 –, Human Integration Design Handbook, NASA SP-2010-3407, Jan. 2010. Radiation Physiology and Effects

Radiation Physiology and Effects ENAE 697 - Space Human Factors and Life Support

U N I V E R S I T Y O FMARYLAND

Shielding Materials Effect on GCR

27

–, Human Integration Design Handbook, NASA SP-2010-3407, Jan. 2010

Page 28: Radiation Physiology and Effects€¦ · Lunar Regolith Shielding for SPE 28 –, Human Integration Design Handbook, NASA SP-2010-3407, Jan. 2010. Radiation Physiology and Effects

Radiation Physiology and Effects ENAE 697 - Space Human Factors and Life Support

U N I V E R S I T Y O FMARYLAND

Lunar Regolith Shielding for SPE

28

–, Human Integration Design Handbook, NASA SP-2010-3407, Jan. 2010

Page 29: Radiation Physiology and Effects€¦ · Lunar Regolith Shielding for SPE 28 –, Human Integration Design Handbook, NASA SP-2010-3407, Jan. 2010. Radiation Physiology and Effects

Radiation Physiology and Effects ENAE 697 - Space Human Factors and Life Support

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Mars Regolith Shielding Effectiveness

29

–, Human Integration Design Handbook, NASA SP-2010-3407, Jan. 2010

Page 30: Radiation Physiology and Effects€¦ · Lunar Regolith Shielding for SPE 28 –, Human Integration Design Handbook, NASA SP-2010-3407, Jan. 2010. Radiation Physiology and Effects

Radiation Physiology and Effects ENAE 697 - Space Human Factors and Life Support

U N I V E R S I T Y O FMARYLAND

Radiation Exposure Induced Deaths

30

Francis A. Cucinotta, Myung-Hee Y. Kim, and Lei Ren, Managing Lunar and Mars Mission Radiation Risks Part I: Cancer Risks, Uncertainties, and Shielding Effectiveness NASA/TP-2005-213164, July, 2005

Page 31: Radiation Physiology and Effects€¦ · Lunar Regolith Shielding for SPE 28 –, Human Integration Design Handbook, NASA SP-2010-3407, Jan. 2010. Radiation Physiology and Effects

National  Aeronautics  and  Space  Administration  

1

!

What’s  New  in  Space  Radiation    Research  for  Exploration?  

!Francis  A.  Cucinotta  

NASA,  Lyndon  B.  Johnson  Space  Center    !

Presented  to  Future  In-­‐Space  Operations  (FISO)  May  18,  2011

Page 32: Radiation Physiology and Effects€¦ · Lunar Regolith Shielding for SPE 28 –, Human Integration Design Handbook, NASA SP-2010-3407, Jan. 2010. Radiation Physiology and Effects

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The  Space  Radiation  Problem

  Space  radiation  is  comprised  of  high-­‐energy  protons  and  heavy  ions  (HZE’s)  and  secondary  protons,  neutrons,  and  heavy  ions  produced  in  shielding  – Unique  damage  to  biomolecules,  

cells,  and  tissues  occurs  from  HZE  ions  

– No  human  data  to  estimate  risk  – Expt.  models  must  be  applied  or  

developed  to  estimate  cancer,  and  other  risks  

– Shielding  has  excessive  costs  and  will  not  eliminate  galactic  cosmic  rays  (GCR)  

!

Single  HZE  ions  in  cells  And  DNA  breaks

Single  HZE  ions  in  photo-­‐emulsions  Leaving  visible  images

National  Aeronautics  and  Space  Administration

Page 33: Radiation Physiology and Effects€¦ · Lunar Regolith Shielding for SPE 28 –, Human Integration Design Handbook, NASA SP-2010-3407, Jan. 2010. Radiation Physiology and Effects

National  Aeronautics  and  Space  Administration  

3

Executive  Summary

• Estimating  space  radiation  risks  carries  large  uncertainties  that  preclude  setting  exposure  limits  and  evaluating  many  mitigation  measures  !

• NASA  needs  to  close  the  knowledge  gap  on  a  broad-­‐range  of  biological  questions  before  radiation  protection  goals  can  be  met  for  exploration  !

• The  Human  Research  Program  (HRP),  Space  Radiation  Program  Element  (SRP)  led  by  JSC  is  committed  to  solving  the  space  radiation  problem  for  exploration

Page 34: Radiation Physiology and Effects€¦ · Lunar Regolith Shielding for SPE 28 –, Human Integration Design Handbook, NASA SP-2010-3407, Jan. 2010. Radiation Physiology and Effects

National  Aeronautics  and  Space  Administration  

Space  Radiation  Environments

• Galactic  cosmic  rays  (GCR)  penetrating  protons  and  heavy  nuclei  -­‐  a  biological  science  challenge  – shielding  is  not  effective  – large  biological  uncertainties  limits  ability  to  

evaluate  risks  and  effectiveness  of  mitigations  

!• Solar  Particle  Events  (SPE)  largely  medium  

energy  protons  –  a  shielding,    operational,  and  risk  assessment  challenge  – shielding  is  effective;  optimization  needed  

to  reduce  weight  – improved  understanding  of  radiobiology  

needed  to  perform  optimization  – accurate  event  alert  and  responses  is  

essential  for  crew  safety

4

GCR  a  continuum  of  ionizing  radiation  types

Solar  particle  events  and  the  11-­‐yr  solar  cycle

GCR Charge Number0 5 10 15 20 25 30

% C

ontr

ibut

ion

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

100Fluence (F)Dose = F x LETDose Eq = Dose x QF

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National  Aeronautics  and  Space  Administration  

5

Space  Safety  Requirements

• Congress  has  chartered  the  National  Council  on  Radiation  Protection  (NCRP)  to  guide  Federal  agencies  on  radiation  limits  and  procedures  – NCRP  guides  NASA  on  astronaut  dose  

limits  • Crew  safety  

– limit  of  3%  fatal  cancer  risk    – prevent  radiation  sickness  during  mission  – new  exploration  requirements  limit  brain  

and  heart  disease  risks  from  space  radiation  

• Mission  and  Vehicle  Requirements  –  shielding,  dosimetry,  and  

countermeasures  • NASA  programs  must  follow  the  ALARA  principle  to  ensure  astronauts  do  not  approach  dose  limits

Cell  fusion  caused  by  radiation

Fe+TGFβ

γ

TGFβ

Fe

γ  +TGFβ

Sham

Space  Radiation  in  breast  cancer  formation

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National  Aeronautics  and  Space  Administration  

6

Categories  of  Radiation  Risk

Four  categories  of  risk  of  concern  to  NASA:    

– Carcinogenesis  (morbidity  and  mortality  risk)  

– Acute  and  Late  Central  Nervous  System  (CNS)  risks  

✓  immediate  or  late  functional  changes    

– Chronic  &  Degenerative  Tissue  Risks  

✓ cataracts,  heart-­‐disease,  etc.  

– Acute  Radiation  Risks  –  sickness  or  death  

Differences  in  biological  damage  of  heavy  nuclei  in  space  with  x-­‐rays,  limits  Earth-­‐based  data  on  health  effects  for  space  applications  

– New  knowledge  on  risks  must  be  obtained

Lens  changes  in  cataracts

First  experiments  for  leukemia  induction  with  GCR

cataracts

Page 37: Radiation Physiology and Effects€¦ · Lunar Regolith Shielding for SPE 28 –, Human Integration Design Handbook, NASA SP-2010-3407, Jan. 2010. Radiation Physiology and Effects

National  Aeronautics  and  Space  Administration  

Space  Radiation  Health  Risks

• NASA  limits  acceptable  levels  of  risks  of  astronauts  to  a  3%  Risk  of  Exposure  Induced  Death  (REID)  from  cancer  – PEL  requirement  to  be  below  95%  Confidence  Interval  (C.I.)  for  cancer  

risk  protects  against  uncertainties  in  risk  projection  models  – Estimates  of  number  of  days  to  be  within  a  95%  C.I.  are  used  to  assess:  

• Safe  mission  lengths    • Crew  selection  criteria  such  as  Age,  Gender  and  Prior  Exposure  • Mitigations  such  as  Shielding  or  Biological  Countermeasure  Requirements  !

• Non-­‐cancer  risks  are  not  well  defined  – Potential  for  late  non-­‐cancer  mortality  risks  (Heart  and  CNS)  on  long-­‐

term  exploration  missions  confounds  assessments  of  Acceptable  Risk,  which  includes  only  cancer  at  this  time  

– Additionally,  the  NCRP  recommends  that  limits  for  non-­‐cancer  morbidity  risks  be  based  on  avoiding  any  clinically  significant  effect  • Research  in  cells  and  murine  models  are  not  conclusive  regarding  clinical  

significance  of  space  radiation  exposure  to  the  astronaut's  CNS  • Need  appropriate  animal  model  to  assess  clinical  significance

7

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• Retinal  flashes  observed  by  astronauts  suggests  single  heavy  nuclei  can  disrupt  brain  function.  ― Central  nervous  system  (CNS)  damage  by  x-­‐

rays  is  not  observed  except  at  very  high  doses  

• In-­‐flight  cognitive  changes  and  late  effects  similar  to  Alzheimer’s  disease  are  a  concern  for  GCR.    

• NASA  research  in  cells  and  mouse/rat  models  has  increased  concern  for  CNS  Risks  – Over  90  CNS  journal  publications  supported  

by  NASA  since  2000  – Studies  have  quantified  rate  of  neuronal  

degeneration,  oxidative  stress,  apoptosis,  inflammation,  and  changes  in  dopamine  function  related  to  late  CNS  risks  

– Cognitive  tests  in  rats/mice  show  detriments  at  doses  as  low  as  10  mGy  (1  rad)    

• Large  hurdle  remains  to  establish  significance  in  humans

Reduction  in  number  of  neurons  (neurodegeneration)  for  increasing  Iron  doses  in  mouse  hippocampus

CNS  Risks  from  Galactic  Cosmic  Rays  (GCR)    

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National  Aeronautics  and  Space  Administration  

Radiation  and  Non-­‐Cancer  Effects

• Early  Acute  risks  are  very  unlikely:  – Low  or  modest  dose-­‐rates  for  SPE’s  insufficient  

for  risk  of  early  death  – SPE  doses  are  greatly  reduced  by  tissue  or  

vehicle  shielding    • Radiation  induced  Late  Non-­‐Cancer  risks  are  

well  known  at  high  doses  and  recently  a  concern  at  doses  below  1  Sv  (100  rem)  – Significant  Heart  disease  in  Japanese  Survivors  

and  several  patient  and  Reactor  Worker  Studies  

– Dose  threshold  is  possible  making  risk  unlikely  for  ISS  Missions(<0.2  Sv)  ;  however  a  concern  for  Mars  or  lunar  missions  due  to  higher  GCR  and  SPE  dose  

– Qualitative  differences  between  GCR  and  gamma-­‐rays  are  a  major  concern

9

Control Iron NucleiVasculature  Damage  by  GCR

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NASA  Space  Radiation  Laboratory•  A  $34-­‐million  facility,  is  located  at  DOE’s  Brookhaven  National  Laboratory  is  managed  by  NASA’s  Johnson  Space  Center.  It  is  one  of  the  few  places  in  the  world  that  can  simulate  heavy  ions  in  space.    •  New  joint  DoE-­‐NASA  Electron  beam  injector  source  (EBIS)  for  2009  increases  space  simulation  capability  •  $9  M  Annual  operations  cost

Beam  port

RFQ   Linac

EBIS  SC  solenoid  

Dipoles  –  preparing

EBIS  Construction

National  Aeronautics  and  Space  Administration

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11

Major  Sources  of  UncertaintyNational  Aeronautics  and  Space  Administration

• Radiation  quality  effects  on  biological  damage    –Qualitative  and  quantitative  differences  between  space  radiation  compared  to  x-­‐rays  or  gamma-­‐rays    

• Dependence  of  risk  on  dose-­‐rates  in  space  – Biology  of  repair,  cell  &  tissue  regulation  

• Predicting  solar  events  – Temporal  and  size  predictions  

• Extrapolation  from  experimental  data  to  humans  • Individual  radiation-­‐sensitivity  – Genetic,  dietary  and  “healthy  worker”  effects

Durante  &  Cucinotta,  Nature  Rev.  Cancer  (2008)

(%) Fatal Cancer Risk0 3 6 9 12 15

Pro

babi

lity

0.000

0.003

0.006

0.009

0.012

0.015

Distribution aluminumDistribution polyethyleneDistribution Liq. Hydrogen (H2) E(alum) = 0.87 Sv E(poly) = 0.77 SvE(H2) = 0.43 SvR(alum) = 3.2 [1.0,10.5] (%)R(poly) = 2.9 [0.94, 9.2] (%)R(H2) = 1.6 [0.52, 5.1] (%)

Cucinotta  et  al  Radiat  Meas  (2006)

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12

Space  Radiation  Shielding  is  Well  Understood

Radiation  Shielding  Materials

August  1972  SPE  and  GCR  Solar  Min

Shielding Depth, g/cm20 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Dos

e Eq

uiva

lent

, rem

/yr

1

10

100

1000

10000GCR L. HydrogenGCR PolyethyleneGCR GraphiteGCR AluminumGCR RegolithSPE GraphiteSPE RegolithSPE L. Hydrogen

• NASA  has  invested  in  shielding  technologies  for  many  years  and  understanding  is  nearly  complete    – Over  1,000  research  publications  since  1980  – Solar  events  can  be  shielded  – GCR  requires  enormous  mass  to  shield  

because  of  high  energies  and  secondary  radiation    

• Highly  accurate  predictive  codes  exist  with  +15%  errors  for  organ  exposure  projections  – Transport  codes  – Environmental  models  – Optimal  materials    – Topology  Design  methods  

• Knowledge  missing  is  accurate  understanding  of  radiobiology  for  Exposure  to  Risk    conversion

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Confidence Levels for Career Risks on ISSEXAMPLE: 45-yr.-Old Males; GCR and trapped proton exposures

Solar Max

Days on ISS0

(%) C

onfid

ence

tobe

bel

ow c

aree

r lim

it

100Current Uncertainties With Uncertainty Reduction

50

60

70

80

90

250 500 750 1000 250 500 750 1000Days on ISS

Solar Max

Solar MinSolar Min

SAFE ZONE

Value  Of  Uncertainty  Reduction  Research:    Cost  of  research  to  reduce  uncertainties  much  less  than  cost  of  shielding  in  space  or  reducing  mission  length

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National  Aeronautics  and  Space  Administration  

What’s  New  in  Space  Radiation  Research?

• New  Epidemiology  data  suggests  much  weaker  age  dependence  on  radiation  cancer  risks  – Number  1  Trade  variable  (Astronaut  age)  is  negated  

• Probabilistic  risk  assessments  replace  “rads  and  rem”  – New  Quality  factors  and  uncertainty  assessments  

• Galactic  cosmic  rays  (GCR)  are  much  higher  concern  than  Solar  particle  events  – Shielding  plays  only  a  small  role  for  GCR    

• New  health  risks  of  concern  from  radiation  – Heart  disease,  and  Central  nervous  system  (CNS)  risks  

• Risks  estimated  to  be  much  smaller  for  “Never-­‐smokers”

14

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Roles  of  Select  Committees  and  Radiation  Projection  Councils

• Select  expert  panels  from  the  National  Academy  of  Sciences  (NAS)  and  United  Nations  (UN)  update  human  radio-­‐epidemiology  based  estimates  of  radiation  cancer  risks  each  decade  

• These  reports  form  the  basis  for  revised  radiation  protection  standards  and  policy  as  recommended  by  the  US  National  Council  on  Radiation  Protection  and  Measurements  (NCRP)  and  International  Commission  on  Radiological  Protection  (ICRP)    

• The  most  recent  reports  from  NAS  (BEIR  VII)  and  the  UN  (UNSCEAR  2006)  make  important  changes  to  the  description  of  the  age  dependence  of  cancer  risks,  and  cancer  risks  at  low  dose-­‐rates  – BEIR  VII:  Linear  dose  response  with  no  age  at  exposure  dependence  above  age  30-­‐yr  – UNSCEAR  model  shows  similar  age  dependence  for  cancer  incidence  

• These  changes  will  increase  risk  projections  if  accepted  by  NASA

15

National  Aeronautics  and  Space  Administration

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National  Aeronautics  and  Space  Administration  

16

NASA  2010  Cancer  Projection  Model

• NASA  is  developing  new  approaches  to  radiation  risk  assessment:  – Probabilistic  risk  assessment  

framework  – Tissue  specific  estimates  

• Research  focus  is  on  uncertainty  reduction  – Smaller  tolerances  are  needed  as  risk  

increases,  with  <50%  uncertainty      required  for  Mars  mission  

• NASA  2010  Model    – Updates  to  Low  LET  Risk  coefficients  – Risks  for  Never-­‐Smokers    – Track  Structure  and  Fluence  based  

approach  to  radiation  quality  factors  • Leukemia  Q  lower  than  Solid  cancer  Q

National  Aeronautics  and  Space  Administration  

GCR  doses  on  Mars

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National  Aeronautics  and  Space  Administration  

Radiation  Risks  for  Never-­‐Smokers• More  than  90%  of  Astronauts  are  never-­‐

smokers  and  remainder  are  former  smokers  

• Smoking  effects  on  Risk  projections:  – Epidemiology  data  confounded  by  possible  

radiation-­‐smoking  interactions,  and  errors  documenting    tobacco  use  

– Average  U.S.  Population  used    by  NCRP  Reports  98  and  132  

• NASA  Model  projects  a  20  to  40-­‐%  risk  reduction  for  never-­‐smokers  compared  to  U.S.  Ave.    – Larger  decreases  are  possible  if  more  were  

known  on  Risk  Transfer  models  – Balance  between  Small  Cell  and  Non-­‐Small  

Cell  Lung  Cancer  a  critical  question  including  high  LET  effects

17

Thun  et  al.,  PLoS  Med  (2008)

Lung  cancer  in  Unexposed

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CDC  Estimates  of  Smoking  Attributable  Cancers

Relative  Risk  to  Never-­‐smokers  (NS) RR  for  NS  to  U.S.  Avg

Males Current  smokers Former  smokers Never-­‐smokers RR(NS/U.S.)

Esophagus 6.76 4.46 1 0.27

Stomach 1.96 1.47 1 0.71

Bladder 3.27 2.09 1 0.50

Oral  Cavity 10.89 3.4 1 0.23

Lung* 23.26 8.7 1 0.11

Females Current  smokers Former  smokers Never-­‐smokers RR(NS/U.S.)

Esophagus 7.75 2.79 1 0.35

Stomach 1.36 1.32 1 0.85

Bladder 2.22 1.89 1 0.65

Oral  Cavity 5.08 2.29 1 0.46

Lung* 12.69 4.53 1 0.23

National  Aeronautics  and  Space  Administration  

*Other  cancers  being  considered  Colon,  leukemia,  and  liver

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Point  Estimates:  Risk  of  Exposure  Induced  Death  (REID)

19

National  Aeronautics  and  Space  Administration  %RE

ID  per  Sv

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Fatal lung cancer risks per Sv (per 100 rem)Transfer model impact much larger change than >100 cm of GCR shielding– the 100 Billion Dollar question?

% REID, Females % REID, MalesAge at Exposure 35, y 45, y 55, y 35, y 45, y 55, y

Model Type Model rates Average U.S. Population, 2005Additive BEIR VII 1.20 1.20 1.18 0.65 0.66 0.66

UNSCEAR 1.28 1.27 1.22 0.71 0.71 0.69RERF 1.33 1.34 1.32 0.72 0.73 0.73

Multiplicative BEIR VII 2.88 2.74 2.38 0.95 0.92 0.83UNSCEAR 3.56 3.50 3.23 1.17 1.17 1.11RERF 3.71 4.16 4.21 1.13 1.30 1.37

Mixture BEIR VII 2.04 1.97 2.78 0.80 0.79 0.74UNSCEAR 2.43 2.39 2.23 0.94 0.94 0.89RERF 2.53 2.77 2.78 0.92 1.02 1.05

Never-smokersMultiplicative BEIR VII 0.44 0.41 0.37 0.15 0.15 0.14

UNSCEAR 0.57 0.57 0.54 0.15 0.15 0.14RERF 0.55 0.61 0.66 0.14 0.15 0.16

Mixture BEIR VII 0.85 0.84 0.81 0.40 0.40 0.38UNSCEAR 0.96 0.95 0.91 0.46 0.45 0.42RERF 0.98 1.01 1.02 0.46 0.47 0.45

Generalized Multiplicative

RERF, Generalized Multiplicative for never-smokers

0.39 0.47 0.53 0.16 0.17 0.20

 National  Aeronautics  and  Space  Administration  

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“Safe”  days  in  Space:  Uncertainties  estimated  using  subjective  PDFs  propagated  using  Monte-­‐Carlo  techniques

%REID  for  Males    and  95%  CI %REID  for  Females  and  95%  CIa Avg.  U.S. Never-­‐Smokers Decrease

(%)Avg.  U.S. Never-­‐Smokers Decrease

(%)30 2.26  [0.76,  8.11] 1.79  [0.60,  6.42] 21 3.58  [1.15,  12.9] 2.52  [0.81,  9.06] 30

40 2.10  [0.71,  7.33] 1.63  [0.55,  5.69] 22 3.23  [1.03,  11.5] 2.18  [0.70,  7.66] 33

50 1.93  [0.65,  6.75] 1.46  [0.49,  5.11] 24 2.89  [0.88,  10.2] 1.89  [0.60,  6.70]            34

a NASA  2005 NASA  2010  Avg.  U.S.    

NASA  2010 Never-­‐Smokers

Males

35 158 140  (186) 180  (239)45 207 150  (200) 198  (263)55 302 169  (218) 229  (297)

Females

35 129 88  (120) 130  (172)45 173 97  (129) 150  (196)55 259 113  (149) 177  (231)

%REID  predictions  and  95%  CI  for  never-­‐smokers  and  average  U.S.  population  for  1-­‐year  in  deep  space  at  solar  minimum  with  20  g/cm2  aluminum  shielding:

Maximum  Days  in  Deep  Space  with  95%  Confidence  to  be  below  Limits  (alternative  quality  factor  errors  in  parenthesis):

National  Aeronautics  and  Space  Administration  

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Solar  Min  and  Max  Comparison  with  Proposed  NASA  Quality  Factor  (Q)  and  Tissue  Weights  (Wt)  vs  ICRP  Quality  Factor  Definition

22

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Shielding  Materials  play  little  role  for  GCR

23

MaterialE (Sv)

Solar Minimum SPE + Solar Maximum

10 g/cm2

Liquid H2 0.40 0.19Liquid CH4 0.50 0.30Polyethylene 0.52 0.33Water 0.53 0.35Epoxy 0.53 0.36Aluminum 0.57 0.43

20 g/cm2

Liquid H2 0.36 0.16Liquid CH4 0.45 0.22Polyethylene 0.47 0.24Water 0.48 0.25Epoxy 0.49 0.26Aluminum 0.53 0.30

40 g/cm2

Liquid H2 0.31 0.15Liquid CH4 0.43 0.21Polyethylene 0.46 0.23Water 0.46 0.23Epoxy 0.48 0.24Aluminum 0.51 0.26

Annual effective dose. Solar max calculations include 1972 Solar Particle Event.

 National  Aeronautics  and  Space  Administration  

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24

Solar  Particle  Event  (SPE)  Risks

National  Aeronautics  and  Space  Administration

Research  studies  show  that  risks  of  acute  death  from  large  SPEs  has  been  over-­‐estimated  in  the  past:  – Proper  evaluation  of  dose-­‐rates,  tissue  shielding,  and  proton  biological  effectiveness  show  risk  is  very  small  

SPE  risk  remain  important  for  lunar  EVA      – Radiation  sickness  if  unprotected  >  2  hour  EVA  – Cancer  risk  is  priority  for  both  EVA  and  IVA  

Proper  resource  management  through  research:  – Probabilistic  risk  assessment  tools  for  Lunar  and  Mars  Architecture  studies  – Optimize  shielding  requirements  by  improved  understanding  of  proton  radiobiology  &  shielding  design  tools  

– ESMD  and  SMD  collaborations  on  research  to  improve  SPE  alert,  monitoring  and  forecasting  

– Biological  countermeasure  development  for  proton  cancer,  and  Acute  radiation  syndromes  (if  needed)

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National  Aeronautics  and  Space  Administration  

25

SPE  Probabilistic  Risk  Assessment

• Using  detailed  data  base  of  all  SPE’s  in  space  age  (1955-­‐current)  and  historical  data  on  Ice-­‐core  nitrate  samples  (15th-­‐century  to  current),  SRP  has  developed  a  probabilistic  model  of  SPE  occurrence,  size,  and  frequency  – Hazard  rate  model  using  Survival  

analysis  – Non-­‐uniform  Poisson  process  

provides  high  quality  fit  of  all  SPE  data  

• Probabilistic  model  supports  shielding  design  and  resource  management  goals  for  Exploration  missions  

• Department  of  Defense  model  estimates  various  acute  risks

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2/1/54 2/1/58 2/1/62 2/1/66 2/1/70 2/1/74 2/1/78 2/1/82 2/1/86 2/1/90 2/1/94 2/1/98 2/1/02 2/1/06

Date

λ (t)

SPE  Hazard  Rate  in  Space  Era

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000

Time, d

P ModelSample

Non-­‐Uniform  Poisson  Process  

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National  Aeronautics  and  Space  Administration  

Acceptable  Risk  Levels  for  Exploration  Missions

• The  NASA  Standard  of  3%  Risk  of  Exposure  Induced  Death  was  set  in  1989  by  NASA  Administrator  with  OSHA  Concurrence  under  Code  of  Federal  Regulation  (CFR  1960)  

• NASA  has  set  an  identical  acceptable  risk  level  for  Exploration  missions  under  the  OCHMO’s  2006  Permissible  Exposure  Limits  (PEL)  – OSHA  concurrences  on  NASA  Health  policy  in  Spaceflight  dropped  in  

2004  after  discussion  with  OCHMO  • The  NCRP  recommendation  of  3%  Limit  based  on  3  rationales:  

– Comparison  of  fatality  rates  in  less-­‐safe  Industries  made  in  1989  – Comparison  to  risk  limits  for  ground-­‐based  workers  – Recognition  of  other  spaceflight  risks  

• Fatality  rates  in  less-­‐safe  industries  have  improved  more  than  2-­‐fold  since  1989  and  therefore  no  longer  valid  basis;  however  other  2  rationale  from  NCRP  in  1989  are  still  valid

26

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National  Aeronautics  and  Space  Administration  

Acceptable  Levels  of  Risk  -­‐  continued

• A  discussion  of  higher  or  lower  Acceptable  Risk  Levels  would  consider  – Over  arching  Ethical  and  Safety  standards  at  NASA  and  in  the  U.S.  – Benefits  to  Human-­‐kind  from  Exploration  missions  – Emerging  information  on  possible  radiation  mortality  risks  from  non-­‐

cancer  diseases,  notably  Heart  (Stroke  and  Coronary  Heart  Disease)  and  Central  Nervous  System  risks  

– The  resulting  burden  for  morbidity  risks  including  cancer,  cataracts,  aging,  and  other  diseases  that  entail  pain,  suffering,  and  economic  impacts  • Radiation  cancer  incidence  probability  approximately  Two  times  higher  than  cancer  death  

probability  

– Improvements  in  other  areas  of  safety  at  NASA,  other  government  agencies  and  work  places  since  1989  

– Balance  between  other  space  flight  risks  and  space  radiation  risks  • NCRP  Recommendation  is  the  high  risk  nature  of  space  missions  precludes  allowing  an  

overly  large  radiation  risk  to  Astronauts  

– Impacts  on  finding  solutions  through  research  programs  and  mission  design  architectures  that  result  from  Acceptable  Risk  Standards

27

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National  Aeronautics  and  Space  Administration  

28

3%  Risk  (REID)

6%  Risk  (REID)

95%  CL 90%  CL 95%  CL 90%  CL

Age,  y Males

35 140 184 290 36145 150 196 311 392

55 169 219 349 439

Age,  y Females

35 88 116 187 232

45 97 128 206 255

55 113 146 234 293

Number  of  Days  in  Deep  Space  At  Solar  minimum  with  a    95%  or  90%  CL    to  be  below  3%  or  6%  Risk  of  Cancer  Death  from  Space  Radiation  (Avg  US  pop)

3%  and  6%  Cancer  Mortality  Risks    at  90%  to  95%  Confidence  Levels  (CL)  (Solar  Min  at  20  g/cm2  Aluminum)