rapid foresight for product strategy
DESCRIPTION
Development of product strategy: the method of rapid foresight Introduction the problem ( Future ) Foresight method Adoption to create product strategy Close out Method benefits Facilitator role Questions ?TRANSCRIPT
Development of product strategy:
the method of rapid foresight
Yury Kupriyanov
Dmitriy Bezuglyy
Presenters
Yury KupriyanovBusiness trainer, consultant
Head of practice of enterprise crowsdourcing
and knowledge management in WikiVote!
Dmitry BezugliyBusiness trainer, consultant
Founder and chief consultant
in System Approach, ltd.
Why do we need the product
strategy ?
“Since blind companies don't know where to
go, they try to go in multiple directions”...
4
What is the strategy ?
• The strategy is the choice about where
we are going to succeed.
– Where do we want to go ?
– How we will get there?
– Why we will be successful ?
5
Reality
• How many of you have clear articulated
company strategy ?
• Is it easy to create product strategy ?
• Do you have proved methodology to
create WORKING product strategy ?
• Is it easy to convince BOSS and Dev
Team that it is RIGHT strategy ?
6
What is main pitfalls in
creation Product strategy ?
7
Typical problems
• Too abstract
• Blind spots
• Too technical
• Too many visions
• Hallucination
• …
• Shortsighted
8
What’s wrong with current tools?
• SWOT analysis
• Porter Five Forces
• Balanced Scorecard
• Business Model Canvas
• Lean Product Canvas
• …and so on
The same problem,
even worse ?
10
There is no future
• There is no time dimension in these
models.
• There is no place for development and
growth in these models.
• All of them do not take in account possible
changes in environment of a product.
Without future perspective its
impossible to hit the target
12
The other method used to
define strategy all around the
world is a Strategic session
13
Does strategic session work ?
14
50/50 chances
15
The main reason is that classic
strategic session facilitation technic
also doesn’t has tools to work with the
future …
16
Foresight framework
• Foresight is a systematic, participatory,
future-intelligence-gathering and
medium-to-long-term vision-building
process aimed at enabling present-day
decisions and mobilising joint actions.
• Foresight is the ability to prepare wisely
for the future.
“The best way to predict your
future is to create it”
18
― Abraham Lincoln
Foresight – future studies
S.Pereslegin, 2011
Foresight
But foresight
• Requires many participants
• Oriented on long-term
• Has global focus
• And expensive
21
Rapid Foresight (RF-method)
• 2-3 days working session
• 5 to 30 experts
• Scaling up to an industry sector, zooming in
to a single product
• Immediately accessible visual roadmap
(product timeline)
RF-method: phases
Preparation
• Research
• Analytics
• Session Planning
Working session
• Future map co-creation
• Product Roadmap design
• Roadmap validation game
Analysis
• Validate key findings vs market data
• Design the result report
Adopted working session
structureTrend analysis
Stakeholder analysis
Event analysis
Formats and policy analysis
Product positioning
Create roadmap
Validate Roadmap
1. Trend analysis
• Defining the markets (Focus areas)
• Identifying key trends in each area.
• Identifying dynamics of each trend.
• Identifying a measurable indicator for a trend.
• Time horizon for a trend.
The future canvas (map)
Xiaomi
P1 P2
Trend as process
2. Stakeholder analysis
• For each trend identify three types of
stakeholders:
– Players
• Beneficiaries
• Opponents
– Recipients
3. Event analysis
• Identifying key events of each trend:
– What event can change direction of the trend?
– What event can dramatically accelerate the
trend? (Engage more people in it?)
– What events can terminate the trend?
• For each event indicate:
– When this event would be?
– What probability for this event?
4. Formats and policy analysis
• Identifying key social interaction formats.
• Identifying key technologies for a product.
• Identifying key policies and tacit rules.
• For each of these indicate:
– What trend support our object supports?
– When would this object appear?
– What is the probability for an object?
Future canvas is Ready
32
Part 2
33
5. Product positioning
• So far we have future landscape
(All objects are placed on the Timeline).
• Now we can place on the same timeline:
– Features/products/platforms;
– Actions and special events.
6. Create roadmap
7. Roadmap validation
• To validate our product strategy roadmap
we can use game storming method:
– A group divides into two teams: product team
and environment team;
– Moderator gives a year (quarter) from now, and
every team tells what happens in that year
(quarter).
– Thus we validate a product roadmap vs future
environment map.
Summary
Where do we want to go ?
• We defined future landscape and placed our product on it
How we will get there?
• We will create product features
• Undertake some activity or make some things happen
Why we will be successful ?
• We aim to the position where target will be
• We have proactiveshared vision of the future
37
Key points
• For systematic thinking on the future you
need a model and a method.
• Rapid Foresight is a method and a
framework for facilitation strategic sessions.
• Key concepts: trends, stakeholders, events,
technologies, formats, policies, products.
• Key features: gamestorming, rapid
roadmap prototyping, unified future vision.
Rapid Foresight principles
Future is not predetermined.
We can create the future by our actions.
We must manage the future,
not just study it.
Unified vision for the future is more
important than precise.
RF-method: products case study
• Dance Radar startup: dancing, dating and
clubbing foresight
• Wiki-meds.ru: how to changes patients,
medics and pharmacy interactions
• 1C-Bitrix (commercial CMS #1 in Russia)
strategic session
• MTS (mobile operator) sales offices
innovations foresight
• Etc ..
Extensions and add-ons
• Extensions:
– Product lanes
– Technology startups growth
– Megaprojects
– New experts (competence profiles)
– Territory/urban planning
– ‘Black Swans’ analysis
• Extra tasks:
– Knowledge gathering and sharing
– Experts identifying
– Spread of ideas/vision
– Assessment of participants
– Management and employees of future vision gap detection
Questions ?
Dmitry Bezuglyy
https://www.facebook.com/dmitry.bezuglyy
Yuri Kupriyanov
https://www.facebook.com/yksi12