R ental and O wner-O ccupied H ousing Demand, 2010-2030

"Cairo Apartment Building - W ashington, D.C." by AgnosticPreachersK id - O wn work. Licensed under CC B Y-SA 3.0 via Commons -https:/ / commons.wikimedia.org/ wiki/ File:Cairo_Apartment_B uilding_-_W ashington,_D.C..JPG

Rolf PendallUrban Institute

Middle-class housing on Grove Avenue: https:/ / en.m.wikipedia.org/ wiki/ West_Hill,_Albany,_New_York#/ media/ File%3AAlbany_Houses.jpg UpstateNYer • CC BY-SA 3.0

Presentation outline

A few orientation slides: Demographic changes driving housing demand

A long look back: H eadship and homeownership since the early 1900s

Future homeownership and headship: H ow our growing, aging, diverse population will fuel substantial demand for housing, especially rentals

Population, 2014-60: Despite 16 million fewer whites, all other groups fuel increase of 100 million

White

H ispanic

Black

Asian

Two or more

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2014 2024 2034 2044 2054

Mill

ions

*

**

Source: U.S. Census 2014 National Population Projections* Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander** American Indian or Alaska Native

O ver 80 M illion Seniors in 2040

4

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2015 2020 2030 2040

Mill

ions

65+45-6415-44<15

Source: U.S. Census 2014 National Population Projections

A young, diverse population will spur continued household growth—especially rental housing

5

Source: U.S. Census 1990-2010, Urban Institute Projections (p), average series. Other race includes Asians and Pacific Islanders, American Indians and Alaska Natives, people of other races, and people of two or more races.

0102030405060708090

1990

2000

2010

2020

(p)

2030

(p)

1990

2000

2010

2020

(p)

2030

(p)

Renters Owners

Hou

seho

lds

(mill

ions

)

Other raceHispanicBlackWhite

Translating population to housing

• Every occupied housing unit has a household in it

• Every household has a householder: The person whose name is on the lease or mortgage

• Headship rate: The number of householders per person, usually expressed for age-specific groups

6

Osbornb, Housemates, Santa Barbara, 1603 de la Vina Street, 1974.

A long look back: H ousehold formation & homeownership

since the early 1900s

7

For most age groups, headship peaked about 1980

8

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030

65–74

55–64

45–54

35–44

30–34

25–29

20–24

Sources: Decennial Censuses 1930–2000 and American Community Survey 2007 through 2013, extracted from Steven Ruggles, J. Trent Alexander, Katie Genadek, Ronald Goeken, Matthew B. Schroeder, and Matthew Sobek. 2010. Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 5.0 [Machine-readable database]. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota.

O ldest seniors have been gaining steadily in headship

9

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030

75-8485+

Sources: Decennial Censuses 1930–2000 and American Community Survey 2007 through 2013, extracted from Steven Ruggles, J. Trent Alexander, Katie Genadek, Ronald Goeken, Matthew B. Schroeder, and Matthew Sobek. 2010. Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 5.0 [Machine-readable database]. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota.

H omeownership rate: Two eras since 1900

10

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Sources: Decennial Censuses 1900–2000 and American Community Survey 2007 through 2013, extracted from Steven Ruggles, J. Trent Alexander, Katie Genadek, Ronald Goeken, Matthew B. Schroeder, and Matthew Sobek. 2010. Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 5.0 [Machine-readable database]. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota.

H omeownership also peaked in 1980 for <55

11

25–29

30–34

35–3940–4445–54

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020Sources: Decennial Censuses 1900–2000 and American Community Survey 2007 through 2013, extracted from Steven Ruggles, J. Trent Alexander, Katie Genadek, Ronald Goeken, Matthew B. Schroeder, and Matthew Sobek. 2010. Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 5.0 [Machine-readable database]. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota.

Senior homeownership may be starting to peak

12

55–64 65–74

75+

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Sources: Decennial Censuses 1900–2000 and American Community Survey 2007 through 2013, extracted from Steven Ruggles, J. Trent Alexander, Katie Genadek, Ronald Goeken, Matthew B. Schroeder, and Matthew Sobek. 2010. Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 5.0 [Machine-readable database]. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota.

100 Y ears of H omeownership Transitions

13

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

25 35 45 55 65 75 85

Hom

eow

ners

hip

Age

1885189519051915192519351945195519651975

Birth year

Sources: Decennial Censuses 1900–2000, extracted from Steven Ruggles, J. Trent Alexander, Katie Genadek, Ronald Goeken, Matthew B. Schroeder, and Matthew Sobek. 2010. Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 5.0 [Machine-readable database]. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota.

1910192019301940195019601970198019902000

Looking Ahead: Demographic Change and H ousing Demand

14

H eadship and homeownership are like a race

15

By U.S. Army (Flickr : 2010 Army Ten Miler Start) [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons, https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3d/2010_Army_Ten_Miler_Start.jpg

Y oung Adults Dominate H eadship Transitions

16

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

%-p

oint

cha

nge

in c

ohor

t hea

dshi

p

Decade

15-1920-2425-29

Age at beginning of

decade

Sources: Decennial Censuses 1960–2000 and American Community Survey 2010, extracted from Steven Ruggles, J. Trent Alexander, Katie Genadek, Ronald Goeken, Matthew B. Schroeder, and Matthew Sobek. 2010. Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 5.0 [Machine-readable database]. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota.

Projecting H eadship: Picking Past Transition Rates

17

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+

%-p

oint

cha

nge

in c

ohor

t hea

dshi

p ra

te

1990-20002000-10Average

White non-Hispanic decennial transition rates, 1990-2010

Sources: Decennial Censuses 2000 and 2010.

Projecting H eadship: Future transition rates

18

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+

%-p

oint

cha

nge

in c

ohor

t hea

dshi

p ra

te

SlowFast

White non-Hispanic decennial transition rates, projections

Sources: Decennial Censuses 2000 and 2010, Urban Institute Projections

Projecting H omeownership: Future transition rates

19

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+

%-p

oint

cha

nge

in c

ohor

t ho

meo

wne

rshi

p ra

te

SlowFast

White non-Hispanic decennial transition rates, projections

Sources: Decennial Censuses 2000 and 2010, Urban Institute Projections

W hites have early homeownership advantage

20

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+

%-p

oint

cha

nge

in c

ohor

t ho

meo

wne

rshi

p ra

te

WhiteBlackHispanicOther

Fast scenario, decennial transition rates, projections

Sources: Decennial Censuses 2000 and 2010, Urban Institute Projections

Setting the starting point: Finding 2013 cohort rates

21

Source: American Community Survey 2010 through 2013, extracted from Steven Ruggles, J. Trent Alexander, Katie Genadek, Ronald Goeken, Matthew B. Schroeder, and Matthew Sobek. 2010. Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 5.0 [Machine-readable database]. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota.

15-24

25-3435-44

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2010 2011 2012 2013

18-27

28-3738-47

White non-Hispanic headship rates, 2010-13 ACS

Setting the starting point: Adjusting ACS to Census

22

66%65%

60%

65%

70%

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Ove

rall

hom

eow

ners

hip

rate

Decennial Census ACS HVS

Sources: Decennial Censuses, H ousing V acancy Survey, and American Community Survey.

Projecting H omeownership: Transitions 2013-2030

23

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

15-24 25-34 15-24 25-34 15-24 25-34 15-24 25-34

White Black Hispanic Other

Hom

eow

ners

hip

2010 2020 2030

Age in 2010

Average of fast and slow scenarios

Sources: Decennial Census 2010, Urban Institute Projections

Adding it up: H ouseholds by race & age, 2010-30

24

0102030405060708090

Whi

te

Bla

ck

His

pani

c

Oth

er

Whi

te

Bla

ck

His

pani

c

Oth

er

Whi

te

Bla

ck

His

pani

c

Oth

er

2010 2020 2030

Mill

ions

65+

45-64

<45

Average of fast and slow scenarios

Sources: Decennial Census 2010, Urban Institute Projections

Change in households by race and age, 2010-2030

25

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

Whi

te

Bla

ck

His

pani

c

Oth

er

Whi

te

Bla

ck

His

pani

c

Oth

er

2010s 2020s

Mill

ions

65+45-64<45Total

Average of fast and slow scenarios

Sources: Decennial Census 2010, Urban Institute Projections

H omeowners by race and age, 2010-2030

26

010203040506070

Whi

te

Bla

ck

His

pani

c

Oth

er

Whi

te

Bla

ck

His

pani

c

Oth

er

Whi

te

Bla

ck

His

pani

c

Oth

er

2010 2020 2030

Mill

ions

65+45-64<45

Average of fast and slow scenarios

Sources: Decennial Census 2010, Urban Institute Projections

Change in homeowners by race and age, 2010-30

27

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

Whi

te

Bla

ck

His

pani

c

Oth

er

Whi

te

Bla

ck

His

pani

c

Oth

er

2010s 2020s

Mill

ions

65+45-64<45Total

Sources: Decennial Census 2010, Urban Institute Projections

Whi

te

Whi

te

Whi

te

Whi

te

His

pani

c

His

pani

c His

pani

c

His

pani

c

Oth

er Oth

er Oth

er Oth

er

Bla

ck

Bla

ck

Bla

ck

Bla

ck

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1990–2000 2000–10 2010–20 2020–30

Perc

ent c

hang

e in

hom

eow

ners

by

race

/eth

nici

ty

By the 2020s, Hispanics, blacks, Asians, and other non-whites will account for all growth in homeownership

Source: U.S. Census 1990-2010, Urban Institute projections.

Assumes average between the high and low scenarios

28

Renters by race and age, 2010-2030

29

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Whi

te

Bla

ck

His

pani

c

Oth

er

Whi

te

Bla

ck

His

pani

c

Oth

er

Whi

te

Bla

ck

His

pani

c

Oth

er

2010 2020 2030

Mill

ions

65+

45-64

<45

Sources: Decennial Census 2010, Urban Institute Projections

Change in renters by race and age, 2010-2030

30

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Whi

te

Bla

ck

His

pani

c

Oth

er

Whi

te

Bla

ck

His

pani

c

Oth

er

2010s 2020s

Mill

ions

65+45-64<45Total

Sources: Decennial Census 2010, Urban Institute Projections

M apping America’s Futures: Local demographics, housing markets, and fair housing

31

Projected population change, 2010-30

Thanks!@rolfpendall

rpendall@urban.org

32