DOCUMENT RESUME

ED 029 123 VT 008 171

By-Taves, Marvin J.; Coller, Richard W.In Search of Opportunity. A Study of Post High School Migration in Minnesota. Techniral Bulletin 247.Economic Research Service (DOA), Washington, D.C. Farm Production Economics Div.; hinnesotaMinneapolis. Agricultural Exploration Station.

Pub Date 64Note- 36p.EDRS Price MF -S0.25 HC-SI.90Descriptors-Career Choice, *Economic Factors, *Graduate Surveys, *High School Graduates, *Migration.

Migration Patterns, Occupational Aspiration, *Occupational Choice, Occupational Mobility, RelocationIcicitifiers-Minnesota

To examine the migration and vocational choices of recent high school graduatesfrom three geographical areas of Minnesota, data were obtained by questionnairesand interviews of 739 male high school graduates from the years 1948-1956. Thesample was stratified by agricultural income of the region. Some findings were: (1)Out-migration was greater in the high agricultural income area, (2) Careeradvancement was highly associated with migration, (3) In the high agricultural incomearea, out-migration was associated with residence, father's occupation, presentoccupational aspiration, year of high school graduation, and age at the time ofinterview, (4) In the low agricultural income area, migration was associated withpresent occupational aspiration, year of graduation, age at time of interview, andplace of early adulthood residence, (5) Graduates who migrated from the low incomeagricultural area tended to remain within commuting distance of their high schoolcommunity or leave the state entirely, (6) High agricultura I income area graduatesmore frequently move beyond the commuting distance of their home high schools butremained within the 'state, (7) 64 percent of the low agricultural income area and 47percent of the high agricultural income area graduates who migrated moved to citiesof 100,000 or more. (DM)

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U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, EDUCATION & WELFARE

OFECE OF EDUCATION

THIS DOCUMENT HAS'BEEN REPRODUCED EXACTLY AS RECEIVED FROM THE

PERSON OR ORGANIZATION ORIGINATING IT. POINTS OF VIEW OR OPINIONS

STATED DO NOT NECESSARILY REPRESENT OFFICIAL OFFICE OF EDUCATION

POSITION OR POLICY.

IN SEARCH OF OPPORTUNITY

A Study of Post High School Migration in Minnesota

Marvin J. Taves and Richard W. Caller

A mericans frequently move from one job to another and from one1-1- residence to another. Such movements set up a chain of reciprocaladjustments by all involvednot only the migrant and his immediatefamily and friends, but also the community he leaves and the com-munity he enters.

Heaviest migration is by individualsfrom younger working age groups. Thisselective migration changes the popu-lation composition in the communitiesinvolved. It affects the demand for, andthe ability to supply, certain facilitiesand services in these communities. Theneed for schools, churches, health facili-ties, and other services increases in areasof inmigration but may diminish in areasof outmigration. The ability to supportthese facilities also fluctuates but notnecessarily at the same rate. Effectiveplanning by local communities requiressome concept of the future size and com-position of their populations.

Can a purely economic view of migra-tion as a simple response to variations inpotential income adequately explain whyyoung men leave the farm and theirhometown in some areas but not inothers? Where do migrants go? Whatjobs do they take? Does the economicwell-being of an area influence the ten-dency to leave?

Purpose of Study

This study sought answers to suchquestions. It concerned the migrationand vocational choices of recent highschool graduates from two areas in north-eastern and one in southwestern Minne-sota. A theory of mobility was exploredand several of its tenets tested.

In this report the incidence and pat-terns of outmigration also are described.Statistical analyses are presented of pos-sible correlates of migration such aschildhood and adolescent residence, par-ental occupation, occupational aspira-tion, age and year of high school gradua-tion, military service, reasons for mov-ing, and occupational achievement.

By way of theoretical orientation theauthors propose that a socio-economicsuccess theme pervades U.S. society andthat rural youths accept this theme intotheir own values. Consequently, eachyouth seeks communities during his earlyadult years which he thinks offer him the

Marvin J. Taves is the assistant director, Office of Aging, U.S. Department of Health. Education,and Welfare. He was formerly a professor and supervisor of rural sociology, University of Minnesota.Richard W. Co Ber is program coordinator, the Peace Corps, East West Center, University of Hawaii.He was formerly a research assistant, Department of Sociology, University of Minnesota.

The authors express appreciation to the late Margaret Jarman Hagood, former chief, and Louis J.Ducofft chief, Farm Population Branch, Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture,for assistance in the organization and design of this study and for suggestions on the manuscript.

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best opportunity for such success. Somesee this opportunity in their hometown;others see brighter opportunities else-where.

It is assumed that the processes of vo-cational and residential choice more of-ten extend through childhood and youthrather than being crystalized during earlychildhood. Teenage, and even earlyadulthood, experiences may then influ-ence vocational and residential prefer-ences. Furthermore, it is recognized thatsociety's image of opportunities offeredby different regions, communities, andvocations changes with time and circum-stance. This was readily apparent duringthe 1930's when the rural to urban streamof migrants was reversed in many U.S.areas, including the areas studied.

Source of Data

Data for this study were obtainedduring the summer of 1958 by question-naires and interviews from 739 male high

I - Resort andmining

2 - Farming

rla 3 - Farming

Figure 1. Sample areas.

school graduates in even-numbered yearsfrom 1948 to 1956. On the basis of a1956 survey, four schools were selectedto represent the low agricultural incomenortheastern counties and two to repre-sent the higher agricultural income south-western counties. Two of the four north-eastern schools were in the predominant-ly mining and resort area (Area 1 onfigure 1) and two were in the more pre-dominantly agricultural western part(Area 2) . In the text the terms "lowagricultural income" (identified as LAI)and "northeastern" area refer to Areas 1and 2 combined.

The two schools in the southwesternarea were in the Minnesota Corn Belt(Area 3 on figure 1). The terms "highagricultural income" (identified as HAI)and "southwestern" area refer to the re-gion identified as Area 3. LAI and HAIrefer to farm income in the area, not toincomes of individual respondents.

The Study Area

The LAI northeast counties comprisea spectacular country of forests, lakes,muskeg bogs, and iron ore deposits. Thearea's stands of virgin timber were har-vested at the turn of the century withoutregard for conservation. The denudedareas soon attracted people with dreamsof farming.

The farmers who succeeded the log-gers outstayed them, but have not donenearly as well. The land which producedsuch desirable timber proved poor forfarm crops, particularly with the addedhandicap of a short growing season. TheU. S. Department of Agriculture declaredthis portion of Minnesota a "farm prob-lem area" because of the prevailing lowincomes and consequent low level ofliving. The conclusion was based on 1949data which showed the area to be "sub-stantially marginal."1

1 Criteria of marginality include: (a) incidence of "residual farm income to the operator and hisfamily labor in 1949 of less than $1,000 . . .; (b) a level of living index in the lowest fifth of the na-tion . . .; and (c) 'low production' farms comprismg 50 percent or more of the commerdal farms." Anarea having any two of these three characteristics is defined as "substantially marginal." USDA, Develop-ment of Agriculture's Human Resources, Post Doc. 149, April 1955.

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As in most low income rural areas ofthe United States, geographic mobilityto and from this area closely follows thebusiness cycle. During prosperous timesits counties have had the highest outmi-gration rates in the state. During the de-pression years of the 1930's its popula-tion increased more rapidly than otherparts of Minnesota. Since this populationgrowth exceeded the rate of natural in-crease and was concentrated in adultcategories, it was clearly due to inmigra-tion.

140

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

60

1931 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1958

Figure 2. Trends in number and average size offarms in Minnesota, 1931-58 (1930 = 100). Source:

Minnesota State Farm Census.

The generalization that the better edu-cated leave in greater proportion thanthe less educated applies to Minnesota'snorthern forested area. The high rate ofspatial mobility is matched by some ofthe highest average figures in the statefor formal schooling of high school ageyouth.

Economically the area differs sharplyfrom other parts of Minnesota. The poorreturns from most farms have led farmersto seek supplementary sources of income.Mining and cutting of pulpwood havebeen the usual standbys. However, inmore recent years the development oflight manufacturing and tourist indus-tries has benefited many part-time farm-ers in the region.

The northern area's total farm acre-age has remained fairly constant sincereaching a peak in the early 1940's. Butthe number of farms has decreased con-sistently during the same period. Thisis in contrast to the trend in southwest-ern Minnesota. From 1951 to 1959 thedecline was 31 percent in farms and 27percent in farm population (table 1).None of Minnesota's other farming areasrecently lost so heavily in either num-ber of farms or population. Nevertheless,about 10 percent of Minnesota's farms,as well as farm people, are located inthis northern low income farming area.

The HAI southwestern area, in contrast,l;3s within the Corn Belt. Its longergrowing season and heavier soil makefor prosperous farming. The higher levelof living and the higher investment inland, buildings, stock, and machines areapparent when driving through thecountryside. Examination of statisticssubstantiate the observation.

The southwest is an area of rolling, fer-tile hills with well kept farms and stablecommunities. Its citizens reflect a confi-dence in the future and an appreciationfor the status quo. The trained observer

Tabl 1. Change in farms and farm population for 1A1 northeastern and HAI southwesterncounties, Minnesota, 1951-55, 1951.59, and 1955-59

Change in: Area 1951 1955 1959

Decline 1951-55 Decline 1951-59 Decline 1955-59

Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

Number of farms LAI 17,216 15,458 11,940 1,758 10.2 5,276 30.6 3,518 22.8

HAI 20,141 20,038 18,421 103 0.5 1,720 8.5 1,617 8.1

Farm population LAI 63,889 58,351 46,686 5,538 8.7 17,203 26.9 11,665 20.0

HAI 83,844 81,549 78,294 2,295 2.7 5,550 6.6 3,255 4.0

Source: State Farm Census.

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fails to find such confidence among manyresidentsfarmers and townsmen alikein the LAI northeastern counties.

The southwest area's average capitalinvestment per farm is over six timesthat of its northeast counterpart. Moresouthwest farms were classified as "com-mercial" by the 1959 U. S. Census ofAgriculture (94 percent versus 49 per-cent) .2 Population density is twice thatof the LAI northeast counties. And moreof the southwest's rural population are

farmworkers (16 percent versus 6 per-cent).

The counties within this portion of thestate have some of the highest levels ofliving found in Minnesota's rural areas.This affluence is reflected in the widenetwork of good all-weather roads, wellmaintained homes, and flourishing retailcenters. Such divergence from the traitsof northeastern Minnesota makes theCorn Belt useful for a comparative studyof migration.

2Farms were grouped into two major categories, commercial and other, mainly on the basis oftotal value of products sold. In general, all farms with a value of sales amounting to $2,500 or morewere classified as commercial. Farms with a value of sales of $50 to $2,499 were classified as commercialif the farm operator was under 65 years of age and (1) he did not work off the farm 100 or more daysduring the year and (2) the income received by the operator and members of his family from nonfarmsources was less than the value of all farm products sold.

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1

1

s

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The Samplenata consisted of school records, responses to mail questionnaires,

" and personal interviews with graduates from six high schools in

northeastern LAI and southwestern HAI Minnesota. The selected high

schools provided groups of male students representative of the non-metropolitan portions of their areas. Such matters as distribution of

students by residential categories, occupational backgrounds, and in-

come levels were considered.

All males who had graduated from theschools during the selected years formedthe sample. With the cooperation ofschool administrators and communityleaders, presumed current addresses of1,104 of the 1,168 high school graduateswere obtained (table 2).3 Fifty gradu-ates were selected for interviewing; theremainder comprised the mailed ques-

tionnaire sample group. Because four ofthose originally assigned interviews werenot located, they were mailed question-naires. This resulted in a total of 1,058questionnaires mailed and an interviewsample of 46.

All items in the mail questionnaireappeared in the interview schedule.More detailed information was also

Table 2. Sample for study of high school graduates from selected Minnesota areas,194846

Year of graduation

Sample Total 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956

Total sample of graduates

LAI area 796 135 144 143 156 218

HAI area 37k 66 71 71 82 8210=1.1 .

1,168 201 215 214 238 300

Questionnaires mailed out

LM area 720 121 134 138 149 178

HAI area 338 62 65 68 78 6511.

1,058 183 199 206 227 243

Mailed questionnaires completed*MI aria 456 70 86 91 91 118

HAIaria .. ........................... ........ ...... ...... , ......... 237 4 8 42 46 57 44

693 11 8 128 137 148 162

Personal interviews completed 46 46

Grand sample total 739 11 8 128 137 148 208

The post office returned 72 schedules because of insufficient address. No further effort was made

to locate these individuals as it was felt sources of information had been exhausted.

3 Efforts to locate graduates included inquiries of former neighbors, of relatives, and of classmates.In addition, records of utility companies, the post office, and last place of employment were consulted.

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sought of the interviewees. In this studythe data which were identical in both theschedule and questionnaire were treatedas one set of data.

Of the 1,058 questionnaires mailed, 72were returned by the post office be:museof insufficient or incorrect address (table2). Data were obtained from 693 re-spondents who returned mailed ques-tionnaires and from 46 personal inter-views for a total of 739. Some cases re-

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quired persistent use of letter and postalcard followups. Through additional cor-respondence and secondary sources, par-tial information was obtained on 72 ofthe 239 who did not return the com-pleted questionnaires. So some data weregathered for 811 cases or 79 percent andmore complete information was obtainedfor 739 or 72 percent. The followinganalysis is based mainly on data obtainedfrom the latter group.

i

Statistical TestsThe "goodness of fit" and significance of differences between the-I- migratory patterns found both within and between the two sets

of respondents were tested by the chi-square teclanique. Chi-squarewas also used in determining homogeneity of responses for both with-

in and between the two groups.4

An actual or theoretical cell frequencyof less than five was combined with thefrequency of another cell either justabove or below its position. Where suchcombinations seemed theoretically un-justifiable, Yates' Correction for Con-tinuity was utilized.°

For chi-squares significant at the 0.05level or better, the Means Square Con-tingency Coefficient (C) was calculated.This formula was used to note the de-gree and direction of the association.°Since all data in this study were ar-ranged in contingency tables of a sizebelow 5 x 5, the appropriate correctionformula was applied:7

Representativeness of the Sample

Graduates who scored high on theAmerican Council on Education Psycho-logical Examination (A.C.E.), takenwhile they were still in high school, wereslightly overrepresented. Those scoringlow were somewhat underrepresented inthe sample. Whereas 32 percent of allthe northeast LAI area graduates scoredabove the 50th percentile (using nation-

al norms), 36 percent of the respondentsdid so. Likewise only 27 percent of thegraduates in the southwest HAI areascored above the 50th percentile, but 30percent of the respondents did so.° .

A. slight bias also appeared on father'soccupation among the southwest arearespondents. Father's occupation at thetime the respondent graduated was re-ported as farming by 42 percent of thesample drawn, but farming was thefather's occupation of 45 percent of therespondents at time of graduation. Oth-erwise the proportions of fathers in oc-cupational groups were representativeof the sample.°

Present Residence

In 1958, 44 percent of the LAI north-east area men and 40 percent of the HAIsouthwest men were still in their highschool community (table 3). About 6 of10 of both groups combined residedoutside their high school town." About6 percent resided beyond U. S. bound-aries, largely in the armed forces over-seas.

4 Margaret J. Hagood and Daniel 0. Price, Statistics for Sociologists, Rev. Ed., New York, HenryHolt and Co., 1952, pp. 365-66.

5 P. Yates, "Contingency Tables Involving Small Numbers and X2 Tests," Journal of Royal Statisti-cal Society, 1934, 1:217-35.

8 Hagood and Price, op. cit., p. 370.7 Thomas Carson McCormick, Elementary Social Statistics, New York, McCraw-Hill Book Co.,

1941, pp. 206-08. Also Charles C. Peters and Walter R. Van Voorhis, Statistical Procedures and TheirMathematical Bases, First Ed., New York, McCraw-Hill Book Co., 1940, pp. 391-99.

8 These differences between respondents and the total sample group are not statistically significant.Between respondents and nonrespondents, however, differences on average score on A.C.E. were significantat the I-percent level.

8 Throughout this report, unless otherwise stated, differences statistically significant at the 5-percentlevel indicate real differences in the populations sampled. Chance error in sampling can be expected toaccount for the observed difference in not more than 1 in 20 such generalizations.

10 The graduates for whom no addresses were obtained probably had migrated out of the com-munity. Therefore, their absence from the sample may have resulted in an underestimation of migration.

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Table 3. Residence of respondents in 1951 by income area

Residence in 1958

Number ofrespondents

Percentage of distributionof respondents

LAI HAI LAI HAI

Within income area 281 117 58 46

Same as high school town 214 101 44 40

High school county but not town 40 8 8 3

Outside county 27 8 6 3

Outside income area but in state 55 64 12 25

In contiguous county outside area ...... 3 12 1 5

Elsewhere in state 52 52 11 20

Outside state but within the United States 116 64 24 25

Within the west North-Central Region 21 17 4 7

Elsewhere in the United States 95 47 20 18

Outside the United States .... .................... ...... .... 31 11 6 4

Total* 483 256 100 100

The 72 respondents for whom only partial information was available are not included in this table.

The only significant difference in pat-tern between the two areas was that ahigher proportion of the HAI southwestgraduates had moved beyond the coun-ties contiguous to their county of resi-dence at the time of high school gradua-tion but remained within the state; 20percent versus 11 percent; P< 0.01.Slightly higher proportions, although notsignificantly so, of the LAI graduateswere in the armed forces or had mi-

Table 4. Residence of respondents in 195$by number of years since graduation from

high school

Residence in 1958

Years sincegraduation

8-10 2-4

percent

Within stateStill in high school town 34

Within commuting distanceof high school town 15

Elsewhere within state ...... 1840

Outside stateWithin the west North-

Central Region 7Elsewhere outside state 26

Total 100

51

1110

24

3

25

100

10

grated, but only within the confines oftheir county or income area.

According to the percentage distribu-tion shown in table 3, the LAI men ten-ded somewhat more than the others tomigrate short distances, tended less tomigrate the median distances involvedin intrastate movement, and tendedabout the same to migrate the longerdistances to another state.

Migration appears to be a function ofage. More of those who had graduated2 to 4 years ago than those graduating 8to 10 years ago were still in their home-town (table 4). While about the sameproportions of the two groups were mov-ing out of the region, fewer of the morerecent than earlier graduates had madethe shorter moves (24 versus 40 pur-cent) .

College Aptitude

Both northeast LAI and southwestHAI respondents scored considerably be-low the national average on the A.C.E.taken while they were still in highschool. Thirty-six percent of the north-east and only 30 percent of the southwestrespondents scored above the 50th per-centile (table 5). Even more significantwere the relatively large proportions, 42

4.

Table S. Distribution of respondents by percentile ranks on &C.f.

A.C.E. percentile

Distribution of respondents

Number Percent Cumulative percent

LAI HAI LAI HAI LAI HAI

100-76 102 48 22 17 22 17

75-51 72 30 15 11 37 28

50-26 95 45 20 17 57 45

25-1 203 123 43 47 100 100

Total of 718 472 246 100 100

No score available 11 10 2 4

Total of 739 483 256

and 48 percent respectively, who scoredin the 25th percentile or lower on na-tional norms.

Considering the distributions cumula-tively from highest to lowest, the north-east group consistently scored higher.Further research is needed to determinethe source of this difference. Among pos-sible explanations are, that comparedwith the northeast LAI, those in the HAI

southwest area: (1) ranked lower in i

nate intelligence, (2) were less often mctivated toward educational achievement,and (3) experienced a selective drop-

out pattern which lowered the A.C.E.

ranking of the group continuing in

school.

Father's Occupation

The father's occupation most often re-ported by graduates, 45 percent of thesouthwest HAI and 23 percent of the

northeast LAI respondents (P < 0.01),was fanning (table 6). A higher propor-tion of the northeast (18 percent) thanof the southwest respondents (4 per-cent) reported the father in a skilled oc-cupation (P < 0.01).

Only small differences existed in pro-portions of respondents from the twoareas who reported their fathers' occupa-tions in the (1) professional, (2) pro-prietorial and clerical, (3) skilled andsemiskilled, (4) farm laborers, and (5) re-

lief and unclassified categories, respec-

tively. So occupational background moreoften involved the skilled occupations forfathers of northeast LAI boys and farm-ing for fathers of the southwest HAIboys.

Table 6. Distribution of respondents byfather's occupation at tim respondent

graduated

Number Percent

Father's occupation LAI HAI LAI HAI

Professional 31 16 6 6

Farming 112 116 23 45

Proprietorial or clerical 90 45 19 18

Skilled work 86 11 18 4

Semiskilled work 54 20 11 8

Farm laborer 1 66666 .

Laborers otherthan farm 49 9 10 4

On relief, undo -ified,and no response 61

1111M.38 13 15

.11.1

Total 483 256 100 100

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Toward a Theory of Migration

Migration has interested thinking menthroughout recorded history. Among themost widely known accounts of popula-tion movements are the Old Testamentrecords of the wanderings of Abraham,Isaac, Jacob, and their descendants, theIsraelites. These and other earlier ac-counts mainly preserve knowledge con-

cerning geographic changes in residenceof families, tribes, and societies.

Following the "Age of Exploration andCommercial Growth" and the so-calledindustrial revolution, emphasis waslargely on ascertaining the directions ofmigration, its sources and destinations,and the numbers and characteristics ofindividuals involved.

With the development of the socialsciences, particularly sociology, effortsfocused on discovering specific factorsand traits associated with migration. Thequestions were: who migrates, fromwhere, to where, and how do migrantsdiffer from nonmigrants? The end prod-uct has been largely a catalog of traitsdifferentiating migrants and nonmigrants,and conditions associated with in- andoutmigration. This approach character-izes most contemporary studies.

Admittedly, the primary interest inmuch cataloging was to understand notonly the fact but also the process. Whilethe incidence and selectivity of migra-tion are readily observable, the processwhereby certain individuals move whileothers remain is less easily understood.Social scientists have already initiatedthe development of tools for gatheringand analyzing data necessary to a scien-tific exploration of the process of humanmigration.

The various social sciences presentvarious explanations rather than an in-tegrated one; this is evidence of the lackof knowledge of migration. With timethe economic, psychological, sociologi-cal, political, and other largely unidi-mensional explanations probably will bemerged in a broader and more completeunderstanding of human migration. Thestudy here reported cannot claim such abroad approach. But in exploring a socialexplanation, the authors have attemptedto recognize both its contributions andlimitations to a more holistic explanation.

In any case, current research can pro-fitably be guided by a theoretical frame

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of reference with growing empiricalfoundations. The frame of referencechosen for the current study revolvesaround the "success theme."

"The Success Theme"

There is a generalized emphasis in theUnited States upon "making good," be-coming a "success," or "getting ahead."This is reflected in such expressions as"the American dream" and "the Ameri-can success ideology;" it is generally ac-cepted as part of the "American char-acter" or the "American credo." What-ever the term used, the contemporaryAmerican ethic incorporates a "successcomplex."

Margaret Mead delineated the basicingredients of this complex:

To get ahead, to make goodtheseare the goals impressed on Americanchildrento go some place else, geton with it, count your success by thenumber of less handicapped you havepassed on the road . . . What he isas a personis irrelevant, for to be asuccess is to have done something,rather than to have been a kind ofperson. Pride at being at the top issoured if it is based on someone else'sclimbing, and so the sons of rich menare driven back into harness, back tothe office to show what they have inthem.11

Merton carried the point even further.He suggested that it becomes a moralduty to strive for success:

This cultural theme . . . holds that. . . success is possible for all, irres-pective of station, and that strivingfor success is incumbent on all . . .

This leads naturally to the subsidi-ary theme that success or failure areresults wholly of personal qualities;that he who fails has only himself toblame, for the corollary to the conceptof the self-made man is the self-un-made man. To the extent that this cul-tural definition is assimilated by thosewho have not made their mark, fail-

nMargaret Mead, And Keep Your Powder Dry, New York, William Morrow and Co., 1943, p. 68.

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ure represents a double defeat: themanifest defeat of remaining far be-hind in the race for success and theimplicit defeat of not having the ca-pacities and moral stamina neededfor succeSS.12

In exploring the criteria of this suc-cess Cuber and Harper concluded that:

. . . it at least appears probable thatthe intense rivalry characteristic ofAmerica has been expressed in themain in pecuniary terms . . . To besure, there is some attention given to

nonpecuniary statuses . . . but theimpression is widespread that the

things which really count are theeconomic symbols which reveal con-clusively that one has outstrippedmany of his fellows in the competitivestruggle.13

Wyllie reached a similar conclusionafter reviewing studies in history and his-

torical sociology: "no other definition 'en-

joys such universal favor in America as

that which equates success with making

money'Margaret Mead forcefully depicted the

pervasiveness of the success theme. Sheobserved that children, all except those

who have already achieved the higheststatuses, are almost universally expected

to find employment and economic returnabove the level of their parents. In turn,parents are expected to see that theirchildren rise to a higher status.15 This

contrasts to the earlier "old country tradi-

tion" in which the son was expected tofollow his father's occupational footsteps.

From this perspective, migration stems

mainly from the individual's attempt tofulfill the social expectations of the suc-

cess theme. It is almost inconceivable that

an American adolescent today could es-

cape making this theme part of his ownvalue system. In the home, in school, and

in his other associations, he is constantly

bombarded with beliefs and attitudesgenerated by this success emphasis. Inthe home he is encouraged to excel his

siblings; on the playing field he is spurred

on to excel his opponent; in school he isprodded to do better than his fellow stu-

dents.A significant corollary of this theme is

that young adults should achieve eco-

nomic and social independence of par-

ental support. Furthermore, the emphasis

on success and personal independencehas developed a growing expectationamong American parents that their child-

ren leave them physically: that they trav-

el with "a different crowd." Margaret

Mead observed that even where a family

has remained at the top for several gen-erations, "there are, for all but the veryfew, still larger cities or foreign courts

to be stormed."16Apparently, an affinity exists between

striving for success and migration. Suc-

cess may not depend upon seeking one's

fortune elsewhere. But in the Americanexperience fortunes have so often been

made after leaving the parental environ-ment, that chances are often assumed to

increase with migration. Today this con-

viction appears reflected frequently in thebelief that there is a direct associationbetween opportunity and the size of apopulation center.

As the success theme stresses personal

achievement, migration also involves

largely the individual rather than formal-

ly organized groups.Furthermore, the American ideology

attributes to youth the energy and ca-pacity to succeed in greater proportionthan other age categories. So to the ex-tent that the success theme generates atendency for migration, it should be mostevident and exert its greatest force when

12 Robert IC. Merton, Social Theory and Social Structure, Rev.

p. 168.13 John F. Cuber and Robert A. Harper, Problems of American

New York, Henry Holt and Co., 1951, p. 463.14 Irvin G. Wylie, The Self-Marle Man in America, New

pp. 3-4.15 Mead, op. cit., p. 197.16 Ibid., p. 39.

13

Ed., Glencoe, III., Free Press, 1957,

Society: Values in Conflict, Rev. Ed.,

Brunswick, Rutgers Univ. Press, 1954,

the individual is outgrowing dependenceupon the parental family. For the ma-jority of American youths this is aboutthe time of high school graduation.

To the extent that the success themeassumptions are valid, they should applywith particular utility to the male highschool graduates in this study. As a seg-ment of the American society they areparticularly subject to success themepressures. They have at least completedwhat contemporary American culture re-gards as a minimum prerequisite for highachievement. Consequently, it seemsreasonable that the community shouldexpect more of them in the successstruggle. And, as they internalize this ex-pectation, the graduates set higher goalsfor themselves.

Yet, concurrently, these graduates arestill tied to the positions of their respec-tive families in the local social structure.Their attendance at high school probablygave the graduates a feeling of laggingbehind their peers who dropped out ofschool to work and who could displaytheir newly found income and "indepen-dence" via the prevalent status symbols(a car, the latest in clothes, and readycash). Therefore, the "success theme"should press upon the newly graduatedhigh school student with a special in-tensity.

Migration provides one socially ac-cepted solution for those who finish highschool without visible success opportuni-ty. It is a law abiding type of adaptation.It is not only approved by the culturebut in most cases also expected as a nat-ural turn of events. Spatial mobility like-wise provides opportunity to seek suc-cess in a more diversified social structure,if not one of an entirely different kind.

These expectations regarding successand independence tend to give recenthigh school graduates a relatively de-tached attitude toward their immediatesocial structure of family and hometown.In terminology of contemporary youththese familiar groups are often definedas "square." This would seem to make

14

recent high school graduates into primecandidates for migration.

The application of this frame of refer-ence to this study elicits certain funda-mental perspectives. An initial derivationis that experience (either direct or indi-rect) with various positions in differingsocial structures should affect migrationpatterns. Varied experience of this typeshould make the individual evince a high-er degree of geographic mobility.

Secondly, father's occupation (as anindex of initial social position) shouldbe fairly closely linked with subsequentmigratory behavior. And last, occupa-tional aspiration and career "progress"as indices of success orientation and ac-tual steps taken toward the success goal,respectively, should similarly aid in ex-plaining residential shifts.

Viewing data within this frame of ref-erence requires certain assumptions andgenerates certain expectations. Amongthe assumptions are that, with referenceto male high school graduates in Min-nesota:

1. The success theme attributed toAmerican culture is well diffused.

2. Internalization of the successtheme has generated a desire to achieve.

3. One consequence is a search foropportunity (particularly for economicopportunity) initiated and sustainedlargely as a consequence of the individu-al's acceptance of the success theme.

4. This search involves adaptation tosome social structure.

Whether success is sought in the home-town or elsewhere depends on the in-dividual's perception of the geographicdistribution of opportunities and the costsof commanding them. So some chooseto adapt to the social structure of theirimmediate environment while othersseelc their "success" elsewhere. Amongthe latter, migratory patterns may be re-lated to differences in how the individ-ual viewsand changes his views ofthe potentials offered by selected areasfor his gaining the desired "success."

These "views" involve perceptions of

both (1) the level of costs in personalexertion, financial resources, etc., and (2)the desirability of the anticipated levelof "success" as measured in economic,social, and psychological rewards.

It is proposed that perception is an in-terpretation of reality filtered through aperson's accumulation of experience andinnate predispositions. As the accumula-tion of experience appears the mostamenable to manipulation, attention isfocused on it. The social influences in aperson's experiences which might affecthis perception of opportunity for successinclude: (1) occupational aspiration,

(2) residence during formative years,and (3) father's occupation.

However, effects of any or all of theseinfluences can be altered by such an ex-perience as military service with itsgreater variety of contacts and happen-ings. These include: (1) possibility ofresidence in a place other than the home-town, (2) contact with the occupationalaspirations of people other than relatives,friends, and neighbors, and (3) newknowledge of opportunities and methodsavailable to attain higher aspirations.

Hypotheses

This study concerning the process ofmigration was guided by a desire to ex-plain distance, direction, frequency, des-tination, and pattern of migration. Thetheoretical argument just developedserved as a source of testable hypotheses.It was hypothesized that each of theabove dimensions of migration is asso-ciated with each of the following vari-ables:

Childhood residencethe individ-ual's initial, most influential orientationto a social structure which he later wishes

to maintain, recreate, or improve.

Father's occupation during most ofhigh school yearsprovides an orienta-tion to adult roles within a social struc-ture and point of departure for successseeking.

Adolescent residencethe influen-tial milieu at the time that an individualdecides upon his route to success. His re-jection or acceptance of it as a futureresidence depends upon the route chosen.

Present stated occupational aspira-tionan index of the respondent's esti-mation of what is a desirable socio-eco-nomic position for himself in society.This involves a decision as to where hemay best obtain this status.

Year graduated from high school.an indication of the time elapsed be-

tween graduation and residence in 1958.

Ageto yield further detail on howlong the individual has pursued an occu-pational goal and perhaps also give someindication of the frequency and distancehe is apt to migrate.

Military serviceto represent par-ticipation in a drastically different socie-tal structure; also, to represent an experi-

ence which augments the respondent'sknowledge of other socially defined "op-portunities" more readily accessible inareas foreign to his former life. This ex-perience might awaken the idea of greatersuccess away from the home community.

Reasons for movinga verbal expres-sion of the degree to which the culturalsuccess theme defines certain circum-stances as socially approved "reasons" forspatial mobility.

How far individual has "advanced"in his chosen career or occupationanindication of the extent of commitmentto the success goal, and how much verti-cal social mobility has been demonstrated.

Residence during young adult yearsan intervening variable which linksobserved mobility patterns to specific lo-cations at a given time period. This vari-able adds the dimension of duration toaccount for migration patterns.

The two socio-economic areas of Min-nesota sampled were assumed to consti-tute distinct entities. So it was hypothe-sized that they would show significantdifferences between them regarding asso-ciation of migration with the variables.

15

The Findingsrrhe findings of this study concern four aspects of geographic mo-

bility:"Incidence, or the ratio of migrants and of nonmigrants to total

population.

Frequency, or the number of moves made by the various cate-gories of migrants.

Range, or the distances covered by different sorts of migrants.

Destination, or the types of communities to which these variousmigrants went.

Since all four aspects were analyzedwith reference to the same set of ex-planatory variables, a seeming repetitionmay be noted. However, these analyseshave been kept parallel but completelydiscrete so that the final comparisonsmay be more productive.

Incidence of Migration

The higher propensity towards migra-tion of HAI area students, comparedwith those from the LAI area, has alreadybeen noted (60 percent versus 56 per-cent). The association between migra-tion and area of residence was only mod-erate (U = 0.22, P > 0.001) . These find-ings differ from those of Anderson whonoted that youth from low income ruralareas migrated more than those from re-latively prosperous parts of the state.However, his sample included all agesand all educational levels.18

These results also differ from those ofRamsey, Orman, and Nelson. They foundthat migration correlated significantly

and positively with low levels of livingand low population density.18 Both theseattributes were found in northeasternMinnesota. An explanation for this dis-crepancy lies in the differences in sam-ples. Ramsey, Orman, and Nelson usedU.S. Census data on total gain or loss ofpopulation from Minnesota counties; An-derson's sample also included all agesand occupational levels.

However, this study was limited tomale high school graduates who weremostly between 20 and 30 years of agein 1958. These findings parallel Duncan'sconclusion that the "Dust Bowl" exodusfrom Oklahoma was comprised of morefamilies from relatively prosperous sec-tions of the state.20

Perhaps the concept of "relative depri-vation" is the most appropriate explana-tion.21- The more prosperous farmers inDuncan's study felt they had higher ex-pectations and more to lose than didothers. Therefore, they responded withgreater alacrity to the first pinch of pri-

"Data on which these findings are based are found in greater detail in Richard W. Coller, Geo-graphic Mobility of Selected Rural Minnesota Male High School Graduates, unpub. Ph.D. thesis, Univ. ofMinn., 1959, tables 4-156.

" W. A. Anderson, Rural Youth in Low Income Agricultural Areas, Cornell Univ. Agr. Exp. Sta.Bull. 809, March 1944, p. 14.

lo Charles E. Ramsey, Allan D. Orman, and Lowry Nelson, Migration in Minnesota, 1940-1950,Agr. Exp. Sta. Bull. 422, Univ. of Minn., January 1954, pp. 15-16.

100. D. Duncan, The Theory and Consequences of Mobility of Farm Population, Exp. Sta, Circ. 88,Okla. A. and M. Coll., Stillwater, May 1940, p. 18.

n Merton, op. cit., pp. 234-35.

16

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I

1

i

1

vation. Something similar may be oc-curring in Minnesota as the southwesternyouth begin to experience the full effectsof largescale mechanized agriculture.The northeast and southwest areas ofMinnesota do show distinctness, but theirdifferences were not what were antici-pated in the light of most previous re-search.

Factors Influencing Migration

In an attempt to better understand in-fluences which cause migration, the as-sociation between migration and nineother variables was computed for the LAIand HAI respondents (table 7). Thenine variables were: (1) residence be-tween ages 5 through 11, (2) father'soccupation, (3) residence from age 12to 17, (4) present occupational aspira-tion, (5) year of high school graduation,(6) age at time of interview, (7) mili-tary experience, (8) career advance-ment,22 and (9) residence from age 18to 22.

All these variables except military ex-perience were statistically significantly

associated with migration among thesouthwestern or HAI sample. Amongthose from the LAI area, significant as-sociations were found only for presentoccupational aspiration, year of gradua-tion, age at interview, career advance-ment, and residence during early adult-hood. The variable most highly associ-ated with migration for both groups was

career advancement (LAI: -C = 0.45,

P > 0.001; HAI: C =-- 0.57, P > 0.001).The association between migration

and each independent variable was con-sidered. Whether residence during child-hood was mainly in the open country orin a town was significantly associatedwith migration only for the HAI areagroup (-C- = 0.38). Among these, a farhigher proportion of those who spenttheir childhood in a town had migrated(70 percent versus 45 percent).

Although the difference for the LAInortheast group was not statistically sig-nificant, it was opposite from that of theHAI southwest group. More from theopen country (47 percent) than fromtown (39 percent) migrated. Perhaps

Table 7. Association between the occurrnc of migration and other variables for allrespondents

Variable

Northeast LAI migrants Southwest HAI migrants

Degreesof Chi-

freedom square P

_C

Degreesof Chi-

freedom square P C

Childhood residence 1 1.858 0.20 N.$.* 1 15.378 0.001 0.38

Father's occupation 2 4.107 0.20 N.S. 2 20.101 0.001 0.42

Adolescent residence 1 0.060 0.90 N.S. 1 19.273 0.001 0.42

Present occupationalaspiration 2 9.536 0.01 0.28 2 16.222 0.001 0.44

Year of graduation 2 11.675 0.02 0.26 2 8.655 0.02 0.26

Present age 2 15.681 0.001 0.32 2 12.116 0.01 0.30

Military experience 1 0.986 0.50 N.S. 1 2.007 0.20 N.S.

Career advancement 2 29.520 0.001 0.45 2 33.882 0.001 0.57

Young adult residence 2 27.494 0.001 0.41 2 28.528 0.001 0.47

N.S.= not significant at the 0.05 probability level of confidence.

=Career advancement was intended to serve as an estimate of an individual's current position in

the occupational structure. It was based upon a respondent's formal schooling, job history, and acquired

skills since high school.

17

small town youths who live in an area ofmore highly mechanized, prosperousfarming do not have the same entree tothe dominant agricultural system and,therefore, more often migrate to find"success" elsewhere. The association be-tween migration and childhood residencewas characteristic only in the HAI area.

A significant association was found be-tween migration and father's occupationfor the HAI but not the LAI sample ( ta-ble 8). In the HAI area only 45 percentof the sons of farmers but 63 percent ofthe sons of blue collar workers and 80percent of the sons of white collar work-ers migrated. In the LAI group, half ofthe sons of farmers and white collarworkers but only 39 percent of the sonsof blue collar workers migrated. Moresons of farmers but fewer sons of whitecollar and blue collar workers migratedin the LAI than HAI income area.

In the more prosperous southwest,children of parents not in agriculture ap-parently perceived the situation to pro-vide fewer "opportunities for success" inlocal nonagricultural pursuits which wereconsonant with their level of expecta-tions. This may have been due as muchto a relatively higher level of expectationsas to lack of employment opportunities.It may be that it is less frustrating to bepoor where all are poor than in a moreheterogeneous situation.

-

The association between residence dur-ing adolescence and migration was alsonot statistically significant for the north-east group but highly significant for theHAI group. Also, far more town thanopen country dwellers left the communi-ty in which they attended high school(73 percent versus 45 percent). The ex-planation cited for the impact of earlierresidence apparently applies here as well.

The hypothesis that migration is posi-tively associated with occupational as-piration was supported by data fromboth areas. This association reflectedlargely the greater tendency for those as-piring to professional than blue collarvocations to migrate. In both samples theaspirants to nonprofessional white collarpositions fell midway between the pro-fessional and blue collar groups on inci-dence of outmigration.

Data for both areas show that timesince graduation (as indicated by yearof graduation) was positively associatedwith migration (for both, o-- = 0.26,P > 0.02). Moreover, those who mi-grated tended to do so within about 5years of graduation. For both groups theincrease in the proportion who migratedwas most marked between those graduat-ing within the last 4 years and thosegraduating either in 1952 or during1948-50. While 38 and 49 percent of themost recent graduates had migrated, 56

Tabl II. Associatin between occurrnc of migration and father's occupation

FarmerWhitecollar

Blue- collar

Respondents Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Total

LAI respondents*Nonmigrants 55 50 34 47 63 61 152

Migrants 53 50 38 53 40 39 133

Totals 110 100 72 100 103 100 285

HAI respondentstNonmigrants 64 55 12 20 15 37 91

Migrants. ............ 52 45 .47 SO 26 63 125

Totals 116 100 59 100 41 100 216

Chi-square: 4.107 d.f.: 2 P> 0.20 a= M.S.f Chi-square: 20.101 d.f.: 2 P> 0.001 d= 0.42

18

_

to 67 percent of those graduated prior to1953 had done so. So migration occurs

soon after graduation or else the bent todo so tends to dissipate. This conclusionis consistent with findings in other stud-ies.

Contrary to expectations, there was nostatistically significant association be-tween the proportion of graduates whoreturned to their home communities afteractive military duty and migration. Thetendency towards such association thatwas observed indicated greater frequen-cy of migration among those who hadnever been on active duty. This was truefor both samples. However, those gradu-ates with migration tendencies perhapsdid not return at all to their home com-munity.

The policy of deferring military dutyfor college attendance may partly ac-count for the lower rate of migrationamong those who served in the armedforces. This idea rests upon the observa-tions that: (1) many who migratedsought a college education, and (2) thosewho stayed at home and sought jobsnearby were more liable to be taken formilitary service and more likely to laterreturn to their already established jobs.

The finding that migration and careeradvancement were consistently positive-

ly associated agrees with other investiga-tions.28 This association often representsa reciprocal relationship between careeradvancement and migration. So migra-tion may enhance opportunities for careeradvancement and career advancement,in turn, may increase potentials for mi-gration.

As for the relationship between migra-tion and residence during childhood,adolescence, or young adulthood, the as-sociation held only among the HAIgroup. Furthermore, in the HAI areamore of those residing in towns than inthe open country had migrated; in theLAI area the greater proportion of mi-grants were from the open country.

Frequency of Moves Made byAll Migrants

Geographic mobility is here regardedas closely associated with a striving forsuccess. So the actual number of residen-jai shifts constitutes another item of mi-gratory behavior to be explained. Acomparison of the frequency of movesmade by the LAI and HAI migrants

Table 9. Association between frequency of movs and childhood residence

Number of moves

Open country Town

TotalNumber Percent Number Percent

LAI migrants*One to two 57 70 30 63 87

Three or more 24 30 18 37 42

Total 81 100 48 100 129

HAI migrantstOne to two 43 70 68 80 111

Three or more 18 30 17 20 35

Total 61 100 35 100 146

Chi-square: 0.8488 &fa 1 P> 0.50 b".= N.S.

f Chi-square: 1.759 di.: 1 P> 0.20 C =N.S.

Is Albert J. Rein, Ir. and Evelyn M. Kitagawa, "Demographic Characteristics and Job Mobility of

Migrants in Six Cities," Social Forces 32:1, October 1253, pp. 72-73.

19

showed that three-fourths of all migrantsmoved less than three times. This is notparticularly surprising because a consid-erable portion of the sample included re-latively recent graduates. No statisticallysignificant difference appeared betweenthe two areas in regard to number ofmoves.

No significant association was foundbetween frequency of moves and child-hood residence for either group of mi-grants (table 9). This suggests that thestriving for success, as denoted by num-ber of moves, is not influenced by earlyexperience in a particular residence cate-

gory.A significant association was found be-

tween frequency of migration and fath-er's occupation for the northeast migrantsbut not for those from the southwest. Sodata for only one group of respondentssupported the hypothesis. The significantdifference among the LAI migrantsstemmed particularly from the greatermigratory tendency of sons of white collarworkers. Sons of the blue collar workersmoved less than those of farmers. Thisdifference held for migrants from bothareas.

Neither frequency of moves (one ortwo versus three or more) nor occupa-tional aspiration was associated with resi-dence during adolescence for either

group.On the othel hand, the older groups

of graduates had consistently movedmore often than the younger. Because of

the high correlation between year ofgraduation and age at being interviewed,the same associations held for age. Themere fact of having more time to migrateseemed to account for this. Other studiesindicated that these associations should

reverse in direction some time after age30.24

Although military experience did notseem to influence the tendency to leave

the high school community in either areaafter return from such service, this ser-vice was positively associated with num-ber of moves made by migrants from theHAI area. A frequency of three or moremoves was far more often reported bythose who had migrated before going onactive duty than those whose history ofmigration began after active duty. Thisobservation suggests that active dutynurtures more than iritiates the tendencyto migrate. In fact, those with premilitarymigration exhibited a higher frequencyof moves than did either those never onactive duty or those without a premili-tary migration history.

Frequency of reasons for movn.g(which included moving with parents orto be near relatives, attending school, be-cause of a job, climate, or financial reas-ons) was associated with frequency ofmoves at a statistically significant levelonly among the HAI migrants. Amongthe others a similar but less pronouncedtendency was noted. Taken singly, "bet-ter income or job" was the only reasonsignificantly associated with the tendencyto migrate.

Migrants who cited family or educa-tional reasons for moving showed thelowest frequency for number of moves.This is not surprising as young men start-ing employment immediately after highschool are more apt to change jobs thanare those entering higher education tochange schools within the next 4 years.

Although other studies reported signi-

ficant association between frequency ofmoves and career advancement,25 thesedata did not reflect this. The relativeyouthfulness of the populations herestudied may account for the low level ofthis association.

24 Robert T. McMillan, Migration and Status of Open-Country Families in Oklahoma, Tech. Bull.T-19, Agr. Exp. Sta. Okla. A. and M. Coll., Stillwater. September 1943, p. 18, table 8; and p. 82,

table 57.25 Ibid., pp. 12-17, 62, and 68.Also, Rudolf Heber le in appendix B of Dorothy Swaine Thomas, Research Memorandum on Mi-

gration Differentials, Bull. 43 Soc. Sd. Res. Council, New York, 1933, pp. 274-75; and Percy Davidson

and Dewey Anderson, Occupational Mobility in an American Community, Stanford Univ. press, Palo

Alto, Calif., 1937, p. 114.

20

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Whether the migrant spent his youngadult years (age 18 to 22) in the opencountry, in a small town, or in the cityseemed to have little, if any, influence onthe frequency of his moves.

In summary, frequency of moves wasfound to be consistently associated with

21

age and with years since high schoolgraduation. Father's occupation, militaryexperience, and "reasons for moving"were each significantly associated withfrequency of moves for migrants fromonly one income areaeither the HAIor the LM area.

Range of Migrationp ange of migration, as measured by distance between the individu-

A I al's 1958 mailing address and his high school community, varied for

graduates from the two areas. Although a somewhat lower proportion

from the LAI northeast area migrated, those who did more often

either remained within commuting distance of their high school com-

munity or left the state entirely. The HAI southwest graduates more

frequently moved beyond commuting distance but remained within

the state. Of all migrants, one-third left Minnesota.

These data support Lively's "Law ofLimited Circulation of 13opulation."28The tendency for migratory streams todwindle with increasing distance fromtheir source has been noted in most simi-lar studies. The only study whose resultsdiffered markedly was done on the terri-torial mobility of youth in the state ofWashington.27 The present finding of a2:1 ratio for instate versus out-of-statemigrants, respectively, parallels the find-ings of Hoag, Byrn, Bogue and Thomp-son, Carter and Fenix, and Anderson.28The findings also support Anderson's con-clusions from his investigation into themigration of youth in New York fromlow and high income areas of the state.

The greater tendency of the LAI areagraduates to remain within, or at leastwithin commuting distance of, the townin which they graduated from highschool, may have reflected the greaterproportion among them who lacked themeans and information to migrate far.But those among them who could corn-

mand the means and had the informa-tion appeared to go greater distancesthan did those from the HAI area. Thisfact probably also reflected the greaterabundance of employment opportunityin the HAI area.

If this study's theoretical foundations aspresented earlier are valid, economic fac-tors provide only a partial explanation.Another portion of the explanation shouldbe found in the social environment. Thevalidity of this proposition can be partlytested by noting the association of dis-tance of migration with each independentvariable considered (table 10) .

Occupational aspiration, year of highschool graduation, and military experi-ence consistently were statistically signi-ficantly associated with range of migra-tion. In addition, career advancementshowed such association for the HAIgroup and age showed a relatively strongassociation among LAI migrants. In nocase was range of migration significantlyassociated with residence during child-

26C. E. Lively, "Spatial Mobility of the Rural Population with Respect to Local Areas," Amer.four. of Social. XLIII 1, July 1937, pp. 101-02.

27Paul H. Landis, The Territorial and Occupational Mobility of Washington Youth, Agr. Exp. Sta.

Bull. 449, Wash. State Univ., 1944, table 6, p. 17.21 Emily F. Hoag, The National Influence of a Sirglb -arm Community, A Story of the Flow into

National Life of Migration from the Farms, Washington, ....,C.: USDA, Office of Farm Management an.iFarm Economics, Bull. 984, 1921, p. 19.

Darcie Byrn, Education as a Selective Factor in the Minnesota Rural-Urban Migration Pattern,

1935-1940, unpub. M. A. thesis, Univ. of Minn., 1951, p. 33, Chapter X.Donald J. Bogue and Warren St. Thompson, "Migration and Distance," Amer. Sociological Rev.

14, April 1949, p. 240.R. M. Carter and R. E. Fenix, Vermont's Agricultural College Graduates, Agr. Exp. Sta. Bull. 541,

Univ. of Vt., 1948, p. 4.W. A. Anderson, Mobility of Rural Families, II, Cornell Univ. Agr. Exp. Sta. Bull. 623, March

1935, pp. 34-36., Rural Y outh in a Low Income Agricultural Area, p. 40.

22

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Table 10. Association between rang of current mailing address and ether variables formigrants from both areas

Variable freedom

Northeast LAI migrants Southwest HAI migrants

Degreesof Chi-

square P Z

Degreesof Chi-

freedom square P

Childhood residence ..... .... ...... 3 0.319 0.95 N.S.* 3 2.032 0.70

Father's occupation 6 4.826 0.70 N.S. 8 10.176 0.30

Adolescent residence 3 2.347 0.70 N.S. 3 4.519 0.30

Occupational aspiration 6 13.851 0.05 0.37 9 27.203t 0.01

Year graduated 6 23.212 0.001 0.46 6 14.213t 0.05

Present age 6 27.178 0.001 0.50 6 9.7711 0.20

Military experience 6 15.448 0.02 0.38 6 12.6921 0.05

Reasons for Moving 6 2.565 0.90 N.S. 6 8.793 0.20

Career advancement 6 9.855 0.20 N.S. 8 19.2361 0.02

Young adult residence 6 9.4401 0.20 N.S. 6 8.339 0.30

N.S. = not significant at the 0.05 probability level of confidence.

f Using Yates' correction.

hood, adolescence, or young adulthood;with father's occupation; and with reasonsfor moving.

Further examination of data relative tothe statistically significant associationshelped crystallize the explanation of rangeof migration. The association betweenrange and occupational aspiration wasstrongest for the HAI goup (-d= 0.49versus C = 0.37).

As an overall generalization the farmand professional groups tended most tostay within the state, whereas the bluecollar group was most inclined to moveoutside Minnesota. The managerial andclerical category fell between the othertwo. This finding is consistent with thecontention that professionals tend to staywithin the state because the entrance re-quirements of special state regulatory or-ganizations and qualifying examinationsare ordinarily easiest to satisfy by trainingand locating within the same state.

The blue collar group looked for occu-pations that are often more numerous in

the more industrialized eastern states. Ofcourse, youth who wish to travel far maydeliberately aspire toward such jobs.

As expected, the distance of migrationwas significantly associated with yearssince graduation for each migrant group.

23

Z

N.S.

N.S.

N.S.

0.49

0.37N.S.

0.35N.S.

0.43N.S.

The earlier graduates had covered moreterritory. Over 60 percent of the 1954-56LAI migrants still gave a mailing addresswithin the same area, whereas only 26percent of the migrants who graduated in1952 and in 1948-50 did so.

On the other hand, about half of the1948-50 migrants resided outside Min-nesota. This figure dropped to 39 and 21percent for migrants in the classes of 1952and 1954-56, respectively. A similar, butnot quite as symmetrical, pattern pre-vailed for the southwestern HAI mi-grants (table 11) .

Data on age in 1958 and distance mi-grated showed significant associations inboth areas but somewhat different pat-terns within the two groups. NortheasternLAI migrants unmistakably tended to-wards leaving the state in a steady pro-gression. Those only 18-21 years old hadmostly stayed within the area (70 per-cent) . But only 37 percent of the 22-25age group and 20 percent of the 26.29age category had done so. The out-of-state migrants increased almost propor-tionately as the "within commuting area"migrants decreased.

However, in the southwest HAI area,within-state migration had become im-portant soon after high school graduation.

i

Table 11. Association between range of current mailing address and year of graduationfor northeast LAI and southwest HAI migrants

GraduatedZone of present address 1948-50 Percent

Graduated1952 Percent

Graduated1954-56 Percent Totals

LAI migrants*Same as high school town 7 12.1 6 19.3 22 35.5 35

Within area 8 13.8 2 6.5 17 27.4 27

Within state 15 25.9 11 35.5 10 16.1 36

Out of state 28 48.2 12 38.7 13 21.0 53

Totals 58 100.0 31 100.0 62 100.0 151

HAI migrantstSame as high school town 6 9.8 4 13.4 19 33.9 29

Within area 7 11.5 1 3.3 3 5.4 11

Within state 26 42.6 12 40.0 25 44.6 63

Out of state 22 36.1 13 43.3 9 16.1 44

Totals 61 100.0 30 100.0 56 100.0 147

Chi-square: 23.212 d.f.: 6 P> 0.001 -a- . 0.46f Chi-square: 14.213 (using Yates' correction) d.f.: 6 P> 0.05 Z.= 0.37

Almost 57 percent of the 18- to 21-year-old group had moved, but only within thestate. Likewise, only about 40 percent ofthe southwest migrants and 53 percent ofthe northeast migrants, aged 26 to 29,had moved out of state (table 12) . The

hypothesis in question, that of significantassociation between age and migration,was therefore supported. Because of littlecomparable material from previousstudies, the wider significance of theseparticular data cannot be estimated.

Table 12. Association between range of current mailing address and present age fornortheast LAI and southwest HAI migrants

Zone of present addressAge

18-21 PercentAge Age22-25 Percent 26-29 Percent Totals

LAI migrants*Same as high school town 16 40.0 16 24.6 2 4.4 34

Within area 12 30.0 8 12.3 7 15.6 27

Within state 6 15.0 18 27.7 12 26.7 36

Out of state 6 15.0 23 35.4 24 53.3 53

Totals 40 100.0 65 100.0 45 100.0 150

HAI migrantsfSame as high school town 9 22.0 17 26.2 3 7.0 29

Within area 2 4.8 3 4.6 5 11.6 10

Within state 23 56.1 24 36.9 18 41.9 65

Out of state 7 17.1 21 32.3 17 39.5 45

Totals 41 100.0 65 100.0 43 100.0 149

Chi-square: 27.178 d.f.: 6 P> 0.001 Z...= 0.50f Chi-square: 9.771 (using Yates' correction) d.f.: 6 P> 0.25 ..e= N.S.

24

There was also a significant associationbetween previous military experience anddistance of location from the hometown.In each area, those with active militaryservice presented an unusually strong ten-dency towards out-of-state mobility.

These findings fully support the hy-pothesis that participation in such adifferent social structure as the militaryservice is significantly associated withrange of migration (table 13) . Again,comparable data from other studies areapparently nonexistent. Further study onhow military experience affects the de-cision involving migration should be im-plemented.

Only among the HAI migrants was theassociation between range of migrationand career advancement significantthroughout the different occupationalcombinations. When the respondents en-gaged in agriculture were omitted, the as-sociation still persisted. It also per-sisted when the results were combined

into white collar versus blue collar. Thechief basis for this lay in the degree towhich the blue collar group departedfrom the local area and divided almostequally between instate and out-of-statelocations.

The majority of those who were al-ready in the white collar group, or whowere preparing to enter it, more oftengave mailing addresses in the high schoolhometown or within the state. Since col-lege students were included in this careerclassification, this distribution of ad-dresses partly reflected the apportionmentbetween local or nearby colleges and themore distant metropolitan institutionswithin Minnesota.

Other studies, considering strictly oc-cupational data in connection with rangeof migration, obtained somewhat varyingresults. Benewitz found that among mi-grants to a metropolitan center, white col-lar workers came from long distances.However, blue collar workers who were

Table 13. Association between range of current mailing address and military experiencefor northeast LAI and southwest HAI migrants

Zone of present address

0 0a. 0

z o

.C.0u1..0a.

..:

tt .0

S ...-a .00 E>" 5 :

I'st%.,

iiio.

cef..gema .t; t... t0 0i

4E.aSiI.00.

as

120I-

LAI migrants*Same as high school town 25 31.6 6 15.0 4 14.3 35

Within area 18 22.8 8 20.0 1 3.6 27

Within state 18 22.8 9 22.5 9 32.1 36

Out of state 13 22.8 17 42.5 14 50.0 49

Totals 79 100.0 40 100.0 28 100.0 147

HAI migrantstSame as high school town 21 28.8 4 10.0 4 11.8 29

Within area 3 4.1 5 12.5 2 5.8 10

Within state 35 47.9 16 40.0 12 35.3 63

Out of state 14 19.2 15 37.5 16 47.1 45

Totals 73 100.0 40 100.0 34 100.0 147

Chi-square: 15.448 d.f.: 6 P> 0.02 E. 0.38f Chi-square: 12.692 (using Yates' correction) d.f.: 6 P> 0.05 e- = 0.35

25

not specialized technicians had nearerpoints of origin.29

Within the state of Ohio, Thompsonfound that white collar workers moved thefurthest." This is closer to this study's re-sults. However, among all migrants wholeft a North Carolina county, it was dis-covered that professional and governmentworkers went the farthest. Agriculturalworkers stayed nearest the hometown.31Another study in New York obtained thesame results.32 Since these two last men-tioned studies dealt with older migrants,the age factor may have accounted for thedifference in results.

An additional difficulty in comparingthese other findings to those of the presentstudy is that the use of the professionaland governmental worker categories jux-taposes an occupational group with anindustrial category. In summary, it ap-pears that an intervening variable (suchas distribution of employment opportuni-

ties or perceptions of social expecta-tions) mitigates the association here ex-amined.

Military experience and occupationalaspiration were each significantly associ-ated with distance of migration amongboth the southwestern and the northeast-ern respondents. Thus, experience relatedto the different social structure of mili-tary life has a significant association withrange of spatial movement. Such an ex-perience may also foster higher occupa-tional aspirations since the youth hasbeen able to learn of other "opportuni-ties." Higher aspiration could then leadto a willingness to try adventures in othersocial structures. One can conceive ofthese two factors as reinforcing eachother in their encouragement of migra-tion involving substantial distances.

As expected, range increased with ageand time elapsed since high school grad-uation. Whether this relationship would

Table 14. Degree and significance ef association between two patterns of migration and

10 potentially explanatory variables for 129 northeast LAI and 146 southwest HAI rural

Minnesota male high school graduates of the years 194$, 1952, end 1956 who migrated

Zone of address (range) Outward linear moves (range)

Variable

LAI HAI LAI HAI

P P P P

Childhood residence 0.95 N.S.* 0.70 N.S. 0.80 N.S. 0.10

Father's occupation 0.70 N.S. 0.30 N.S. 0.05 0.38 0.10

Adolescent residence 0.70 N.S. 0.30 N.S. 0.30 N.S. 0.10

Present occupational aspiration.- 0.05 0.37 0.01t 0.49 0.02 0.41 0.011

Year graduated 0.001 0.50 0.05.1 0.37 0.01 0.39 0.011

Present age 0.001 0.50 0.20.1 M.S. 0.10 N.S. O.lOf

Military duty 0.02 0.38 0.05t 0.35 0.02 0.36 0.50

Reasons for moving 0.90 N.S. 0.20 N.S. 0.50 N.S. 0.10

Career advancement 0.20 N.S. 0.021 0.43 0.05 0.30 0.001t

Young adult residence 0.201 N.S. 0.30 N.S. 0.051 0.34 0.50

N.S. = not significant at the 0.05 probability level of confidence.f Computed with Yates' correction.

E

N.S.

N.S.

N.S.

0.480.41

N.S.

N.S.

N.S.

0.53N.S.

23 Maurice C. Benewitz, "Migrant and Non-Migrant Occupational Patterns," Industrial and LaborRelations R. 9, Jan. 1956, pp. 235-40.

30 Warren S. Thompson, Migration Within Ohio, Oxford, Ohio: Scripps Foundation, Miami Univ.,

1951, p. 183.31. W. A. Anderson and C. P. Loomis, Migration of Sons and Daughters a White Farmers in Wake

County, 1929, Agr. Exp. Sta. of North Carolina State, Bull. 275, June 1930, p. 183.

=Anderson, Mobility of Rural Families, II, pp. 34-36.

26

ipersist for a population well above 30years in age is questionable. The direc-tion of association might reverse if suffi-cient numbers during their later yearsreturn to the region of their rearing. 'Thisstudy provided no data pertinent to thisconjecture.

Combining the findings relative torange of migration with findings on theassociation between range of linear out-ward movements (patterns of migrationin which the migrant moves mainly awayfrom the hometown in a relativelystraight line in contrast to movementswhich might be characterized as oscillat-ing or zig-zagging) and the independentvariables reinforced the foregoing obser-vations (table 14). When only those whodemonstrated this undirectional patternof migration were considered, the associa-tions between range and present occupa-tional aspirations as well as year gradu-ated both showed significant association.In addition, career advancement was as-sociated significantly and father's occu-pation approached it for both groups.Moreover, military experience and resi-dence during young adulthood were as-

sociated with range among the LAI mi-grants.

Assuming the legitimacy of interpret-ing this migratory pattern as reflecting ahigher degree of planning in migration, itis reasonable to expect the social environ-ment to exhibit a stronger influence thanwhere this directionality is absent. Moststriking at this point was the contrast be-tween the HAI and LAI groups. For ex-ample, the proportions of respondentswho moved out of state and whose fatherswere: (I ) farmers, (2) proprietors andwhite collar workers, and (3) blue col-lar workers were 28, 37, and 40 percentfor the HAI group and 47, 44, and 23percent for the LAI group.

These results harmonize with theaforementioned suggestion that in theLAI area, agriculture offers limited op-portunities for achieving social and eco-nomic success. Each association justnoted was in a pattern similar to that al-ready observed relative to simple rangeof migration. This was as expected be-cause better than 9 of every 10 migrantsexhibited a linear outward movementpattern ( table 15).

/able 15. Association between range of outward linear moves and father's occupationfor northeast LAI and southwest HAI migrants

Father's occupation

Totals

Farmer White collar Blue collar

Outward-moving range Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

LAI migrants*Within area 13 24.5 3 8.8 13 32.5 29

Within state 15 28.3 16 47.1 18 45.0 49

Out of state 25 47.2 15 44.1 9 22.5 49

Totals 53 100.0 34 100.0 40 100.0 127

HAI migrantstWithin area 7 13.7 1 2.0 0 0 8

Within state 30 58.8 30 61.3 15 60.0 75

Out of state 14 27.5 18 36.7 10 40.0 42

Totals 51 100.0 49 100.0 25 100.0 125

CM-square: 11.101 di.: 4 P> 0,M --a = 0.38

f CM-square: 8.375 di.: 4 P> 0.10 C =N.S.

-

27

Of particular interest, in view of theframe of reference used, are the findingsrelative to career advancement.

Three of the four sets of data dealingwith migratory range and career advance-ment generated significant associations.These support the specific hypothesisthat migration is utilized as a vehicle tovocational achievement and financial suc-cess and confirm previous studies aswell. Since pursuit of vocational successwas a central factor in the theoreticalframework, these findings support muchof the reasoning behind this analysis.

28

However, data dealing with youngadult residence revealed only one signi-ficant set of results. In this case the resi-dential data provided a cross-check ontype of residential site versus range ofmigration. So conclusions take on asomewhat different hue. They suggestthat it is not the destination itself whichattracts migrants, but that people whomigrate in certain patterns of range anddestination do so for other reasons. The"success theme" is, of course, viewed asthe underlying reason for migration, ac-cording to the frame of reference used.

-

1

Destination-By Population Size of Place of Current Mailing Address

rille theory of migration, or frame of reference, selected for this

1 study generates the following proposition: That the destination of

migrants should be influenced by their (1) definition of desirable

levels of income, and (2) perception of cultural or social advantages

offered by a given type of community. This is turn should affect their

choice of community when selecting a destination.

It was therefore pertinent to examinethe association of each independent vari-able with size of community of destina-tion. The only two variables consistentlysignificantly associated with size of com-munity of 1958 mailing address weremilitary experience and young adult resi-dence (table 16). Childhood residence,present age, year graduated, and careeradvancement were each only significantfor one or the other group of migrants.

For graduates from both areas, activemilitary duty was associated with greaterfrequency of residence in cities of 100,-000 or more population. This was par-ticularly true for those who made at least

one migratory move prior to active mili-tary duty. Residence in cities of 100,000or more was reported by 64 percent ofthe LAI group and 47 percent of theHAI group with premilitary migrationhistory, but by only 34 percent of theLAI group and 32 percent of the HAIgroup without premilitary migration.

Association data between the popula-tion size of 1958 residence and youngadult residence (ages 18-22) facilitateda cross-check on destination for a givenperiod of time (i.e., from the year ofgraduation through ages 18-22) againstpresent location. The factor of age wasalso held constant for one aspect (the

Table 16. Association between population size of current mailing address and other vari-ables for migrants from both areas

Variable

Northeast LAI migrants

Degreesof Chi-

freedom square P

Southwest HAI migrants

Degreesof Chi-

E freedom square P Z

Childhood residenceFather's occupationAdolescent residenceOccupational aspirationYear graduatedPresent ageMilitary experienceReasons for moving

Career advancementYoung adult residence

3 1.521 0.70 N.S.* 3 14.131 0.01

6 2.550 0.90 N.S. 6 11.267 0.10

3 1.490 0.70 N.S. 3 7.496 0.10

6 5.727 0.50 N.S. 9 13.886t 0.20

6 33.450t 0.001 0.53 6 3.142 0.80

6 22.7931 0.001 0.45 6 5.829 0.50

6 26.938t 0.001 0.48 6 13.781 0.05

6 4.169 0.70 N.S. 6 10.545 0.20

6 5.815 0.40 N.S. 6 15.1841 0.02

6 15.1341 0.02 0.38 6 15.584t 0.02

N.S. = not significant at the 0.05 probability level of confidence.

} Using Yates' correction.

29

0.40N.S.

N.S.

N.S.

N.S.

N.S.

0.37N.S.

0.380.39

population size) of residence. It there-by provided some clue to the time pat-tern of migration by these respondents.

The data yielded a degree of associa-tion significant for both sets of migrants.The hypothesis that there is a significantassociation between the population sizeof 1958 residence and young adult resi-dence was therefore supported. However,the differences between population sizeof 1958 area of residence and youngadult residence showed varying patternsfor the two groups of respondents.

Migrants from both areas more oftenresided in a community of less than 2,500population if their residence duringyoung adulthood was located in the opencountry (LAI = 57 percent, HAI = 37percent) rather than in a small town(LAI = 48 percent, HAI = 10 percent)or in the city and military service (21percent for either group) . HAI migrantsconsistently more often resided in com-munities of 2,500 to 10,000 or of 10,000to 100,000.

These data may partly reflect the great-er accessibility to moderate sized townsin the southwest HAI area. Nevertheless,the tendency for the northeast LAI mi-grants to gravitate towards extremes incommunity size may also be partly ex-plained as already suggested; that is,limited resources or less knowledge ofopportunity. A more modest definitionof "success" may also contribute to theexplanation. The LAI group did not mi-grate so frequently. Those who migrateddid so for shorter distances, except forthe more limited number who went be-yond commuting distance of the corn-munity. In the latter case they more of-ten left the state than did those from theHAI area.

Size of community of current residenceand residence during childhood weresignificantly associated with migrationper se for only the HAI group. This as-sociation reflected particularly the great-er tendency for those with an early townrather than an open country backgroundto reside less often in cities of 10,000 to

Table 17. Association between population size of current mailing address and young adultresidence for northeast LAI and southwest HAI migrants

Population sizeof present address

Young adult residence

Totals

Open country Small townCity and mill-tory service

Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

LAI migrants*Under 2,500 13 56.6 19 47.5 19 21.1 51

2,500.9,999 3 13.0 6 15.0 12 13.3 21

10,000-99,999 1 4.3 5 12.5 11 12.2 17

100,000 and over ormilitary service 6 26.1 10 25.0 48 53.4 64

Totals 23 100.0 40 100.0 90 100.0 153

HAI migrantstUnder 2,500 7 36.8 4 9.5 18 21.2 29

2,500-9,999 7 36.8 20 47.6 15 17.6 42

10,000-99,999 3 15.8 6 14.3 19 22.4 28100,000 and over or

military service 2 10.6 12 28.5 33 38.8 47

Totals 19 100.0 42 100.0 85 100.0 146

Chi-square: 15.134 (using Yates' correction) d.f.: 6 P> 0.02 = 0.38f Chi-square: 15.584 (using Yates' correction) d.f.: 6 P> 0.02 C = 0.39

30

ITable 18. Comparison between findings of three studies and present results regarding

the variable of population size of current address

Present study Gee and Corson*Anderson and

Loomist Anderson*

Population size ofpresent address Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

Under 2,500 80 26.7 120 17.5 239 59.0 570 54.0

2,500-9,999 62 20.7 75 11.0 10 3.0 245 23.0

10,000 and over 158 32.6 489 71.5 153 38.0 245 23.0

Totals 300 100.0 684 100.0 402 100.0 1,060 100.0

Sources:Wilson Gee and John J, Corson, Rural Depopulation in Certain Tirkwater and Piedmont Areas of

Virginia, Institute for Research in the Social Sciences, Univ. of Va., 1929, pp. 4243, tables 22 and

Z. The data are for males only, to be more comparable with the present study. However, their sample

covered three generations.f Anderson and Loomis, op. cit., p. 15, table XII. The data used above are those which pertain

to all males of the sample. This study used all farmers' sons and so has no town dwellers in it, nor

did it cover any other occupational group.$ Anderson, Mobility of Rural Families, II, p. 19, tables 17 and 18; pp. 22-24. This data is limited

to only the male migrants of the sample. The data were reclassified according to Anderson's comments so

as to be usable in this table. The sample covered aU sons and daughters of farm families, and so has a

much greater age span than the present study.

100,000 and of over 100,000 than incommunities of less than 2,500. This re-flected the tendency of migrants with afarm residence during childhood, moreoften than those with a town residencebackground, to migrate toward the small-er town during their adult years.

This finding is consonant with thetheory that cityward migration tends tooccur via several shorter moves ratherthan directly from farm to metropolis.Although the data of this study indicatethat many migrants took the "big leap,"a significant number followed the short-er intermediate steps pattern. The nec-essity for migrants from agriculturalcommunities to seek larger communitieswhen they do move was reflected in thisand several other pertinent studies (ta-bles 17 and 18).

Size of community of 1958 residenceand (a) year of high school graduation,as well as (b) age of migrant, were eachassociated for migrants from the LAI butnot the HAI area. The older LAI mi-grants who had been out of high schoollonger more often resided in cities of100,000 or over.

Career advancement and populationsize of the migrant's 1958 community of

31

residence were significantly associatedonly for the HAI group. Obviously thosemigrants who had entered farming moreoften were in communities under 2,500(54 percent) or of 2,500-9,999 popula-tion (46 percent). At the other extremewas the white collar and professionalgroup. These migrants less often residedin a small town and more often were inmetropolitan centers.

Those who had advanced into bluecollar occupations distributed betweenthese two extremes in relatively equalproportions among the communitysize categories. The pattern for the LAIgroup was indistinct. The tendency wasfor migrants in unskilled trades to con-centrate in smaller communities whilethose in higher level occupations concen-trated at both extremes in similar propor-

tions.

Within the State

This discussion includes only migrantswho never left Minnesota. Since theirnumber was relatively few, only a di-chotomy of destinations could be anal-yzed. The division of most theoretical

import was to distinguish between thoseindividuals who never entered the socialstructure of a large metropolis and thosewho established residence at least oncein such a community.

Duluth, St. Paul, and Minneapoliswere the three Minnesota cities classi-fied as metropolitan centers for this an-alysis. All have a population over 100,-000 and all have surrounding suburbs.According to the 1960 Census, only onecity (Bloomington) in Minnesota has be-tween 50,000 and 100,000 population.Six Minnesota cities (Austin, Edina,Richfield, Rochester, St. Cloud, and St.Louis Park) have populatirms between

25,000 and 50,000. This dichotomy wasregarded as best representing an actualbreak in the types of urban social struc-ture in Minnesota.

Contrary to expectations, these twosets of respondents did not significantlydiffer in area of origin. The pattern ofassociation between migration and theother variables studied held also for mi-grants who never left Minnesota (table19). The reduced number of respondentsin this category (N = 178) partly ac-counted for the greater incidence of as-sociations which approached (P> 0.10or 0.20) but did not achieve statisticalsignificance at the 0.05 level.

Table 19. Association between destinations of migrants within the state and other variablesfor migrants from both areas

Variable

Northeast LAI migrants Southwest HAI migrants

Degreesof Chi.

freedom square P

Degreesof Chi-

-C freedom square P Z

Childhood residenceFather's occupationAdolescent residencePresent occupational

aspirationYear graduatedPresent ageMilitary experienceReasons for movingCareer advancementYoung adult residence

1 0.0216 0.90 N.S.* 1 0.6476 0.50

2 0.6202 0.80 N.S. 2 5.084 0.10

1 3.434 0.10 N.S. 1 0.1457 0.80

2 3.135 0.30 N.S. 3 4.173 0.20

2 4.366 0.20 N.S. 2 3.499 0.20

2 0.7724 0.70 N.S. 2 3.704 0.20

2 5.675 0.10 N.S. 2 8.306 0.02

2 11.034 0.01 0.47 2 10.233 0.01

1 7.349 0.01 0.45 2 5.354t 0.10

2 19.6641 0.001 0.20 2 4.418 0.20

N.S. = not significant at the 0.05 probability level of confidence.f Using Yates' correction.

32

N.S.

N.S.

N.S.

N.S.

N.S.

N.S.

0.41

0.41

N.S.

N.S.

Theoretical Implicationsnrhe foregoing notes that the patterns of geographic mobility showed

-11- significant differences between the northeast and southwest Min-

nesota areas in regard to range, size of community of destination, and

occurrence of migration. However, no significant differences were

found between graduates of the two areas with respect to migration

"to only one size of community," intrastate movements, and frequency

of migration.

Since only special subcategories of mi-gration and data on frequency of movesfailed to show statistically significant as-sociation with area of residence at highschool graduation, some inferences maybe noted. The overall hypothesis con-cerning differences in the geographic mo-bility of youth from the two areas is de-finitely supported by the bulk of thedata. Only the specialized subgroupanalyses and the limited data on fre-quency of moves fail to sustain the hypo-thesis.

These observed differences betweenrespondents of northeastern and south-western Minnesota can then be linked tothe frame of reference used in this study.These differences in migratory patternsare attributed in a measurable degree tothe ways individuals define the socialsituation. Factors in each area's subcul-ture have produced different "definitionsof the situation." These, in turn, influ-enced individual decisions to migrate ornot, and where to go if one chose tomove.

The purely economic view of migra-tion as a simple response to variations inpotential income is an inadequate ex-planation. Observations in Oklahoma andthe Appalachians showed that unless thesocial group defines an area as undesir-able, people remain in a relatively im-poverished site. The findings in this studyagree since the LAI northeastern areahad less migration than did the moreprosperous southwestern Minnesota area.

The overall more general success-ori-ented frame of reference received only

33

partial substantiation from the gross find-ings. A total of 138 tests for significantassociation were computed; of these 56proved statistically significant. This pro-portion of approximately one-third of thehypotheses being sustained also prevailed

in the separate tabulations done on mi-grants alone-43 out of 120 tests yieldedsignificant associations (table 20).

The absence of more statistically signi-

ficant associations is partly a conse-quence of sample size and power of thetest rather than absence of association.Only tests with larger samples and morepowerful statistical tools could verify theabsence of the originally hypothesizedassociations. But the hypotheses sup-ported by the analyses here reportedshould stand up in tests with larger sam-ples and more powerful tests of statisti-

eel significance. Therefore, it is legiti-mate to claim partial support for the

general explanation (theory) of migra-tion herein advanced and to expect furth-

er corroboration from more extensive

studies.Concerning the associations between

the 10 independent (explanatory) vari-ables and data on simple range and des-tination alone, another pattern appeared.The relatively recent experiences of ca-reer advancement, military experience,and year of graduation, and of presentoccupational aspiration produced signi-ficant associations in at least four of sixinstances. Using these data as a point ofdeparture, the frame of reference mayneed revision.

Tab

le 2

0. D

egre

e an

d si

gnifi

canc

e of

ass

ocia

tion

betw

een

six

patte

rns

of m

igra

tion

and

10 p

oten

tially

exp

lana

tory

varia

bles

for

129

nort

heas

t LA

Ian

d 14

6 so

uthw

est H

AI r

ural

Min

neso

ta m

ale

high

scho

ol g

radu

ates

of t

he y

ears

194

9, 1

950,

195

2,an

d 19

56 w

ho m

igra

ted

Inde

pend

ent v

aria

bles

Dep

ende

ntva

riabl

es

Chi

ldho

odre

side

nce

Fat

her's

occu

patio

nA

dole

scen

tre

side

nce

Occ

upat

iona

las

pira

tion

Yea

rgr

adua

ted

Pre

sent

age

Mili

tary

duty

Rea

sons

for

mov

ing

Car

eer

adva

ncem

ent

You

ng a

dult

resi

denc

e

PE

PE

PEP

PEP

EP

PEE

P-E

PE

E

Zon

e of

add

ress

(ran

ge)

LAI

0.95

N.S

.*0.

70N

.S.

0.70

N.S

.0.

050.

370.

001

0.50

0.00

10.

500.

020.

380.

90N

.S.

0.20

N.S

.0.

201

N.S

.

HA

I ....

......

.....

0.70

N.S

.0.

30N

.S.

0.30

N.S

.0.

01t

0.49

0.05

10.

370.

201

N.S

.0.

051

0.35

0.20

N.S

.0.

021

0.43

0.30

N.S

.

Out

war

d lin

ear

mov

es(r

ange

)LA

I0.

80N

.S.

0.05

0.38

0.30

N.S

.0.

020.

410.

010.

390.

10N

.S.

0.02

0.36

0.50

N.S

.0.

050.

300.

05t

0.34

HA

I0.

10N

.S.

0.10

N.S

.0.

10N

.S.

0.01

10.

480.

011

0.41

0.10

1N

.S.

0.50

N.S

.0.

10N

.S.

0.00

1t0.

530.

50N

.S.

Siz

e of

add

ress

(des

tinat

ion)

LAI

0.70

N.S

.0.

90N

.S.

0.70

N.S

.0.

50N

.S.

0.00

110.

530.

001

t 0.4

50.

001t

0.48

0.70

N.S

.0.

40N

.S.

0.02

10.

38

HA

I0.

010.

400.

10N

.S.

0.10

N.S

.0.

201

N.S

.0.

80N

.S.

0.50

N.S

.0.

050.

370.

20N

.S.

0.02

10.

380.

021

0.39

Des

tinat

ion

of "

one-

type

" ca

ses

LAI

0.80

N.S

.0.

70N

.S.

0.90

N.S

.0.

10N

.S.

0.01

0.47

0.20

N.S

.0.

050.

360.

010.

470.

001

0.50

0.00

10.

60

HA

I0.

050.

340.

20N

.S.

0.10

N.S

.0.

70N

.S.

0.90

N.S

.0.

30N

.S.

0.20

N.S

.0.

010.

390.

98N

.S.

0.20

N.S

.

Inst

ate

type

(des

tinat

ion)

LAI

0.90

N.S

.0.

80N

.S.

0.10

N.S

.0.

30N

.S.

0.20

N.S

.0.

70N

.S.

0.10

N.S

.0.

010.

470.

010.

450.

001f

0.20

HA

I1.

50N

.S.

0.10

N.S

.0.

80N

.S.

0.20

N.S

.0.

20N

.S.

0.20

N.S

.0.

020.

410.

010.

410.

10t

N.S

.0.

20N

.S.

Num

ber

of m

oves

(fre

quen

cy)

LAI

0.50

N.S

.0.

050.

310.

20N

.S.

0.10

N.S

.0.

010.

390.

020.

330.

10N

.S.

0.20

N.S

.0.

50N

.S.

0.95

N.S

.

HA

I0.

20N

.S.

0.80

N.S

.0.

70N

.S.

0.70

N.S

.0.

010.

390.

20N

.S.

0.01

0.39

0.05

0.28

0.10

N.S

.0.

70N

.S.

N.S

. = n

ot s

igni

fican

t at t

he 0

.05

prob

abili

ty le

vel o

f con

fiden

ce.

f Usi

ng Y

ates

' cor

rect

ion.

Practical Implicationsignificant proportions of high school graduates fairs theirtown to attend college and contemporary reference groups

larly influence their migration decisions. These observations suggthat the location of colleges and specialized 'training schools can'ly influeice patterns of migration. Early migration and nonmigrehigh school graduates are likely to be 'affected by the centralizedecentralization of these educational faailities.

Attendants at such schools mist be ex-pected to take on, many . perceptions oftheir Schoolmates and teachers regardingeIatl'ie = advantages offered by different

areas foi suecess. hi fact, their definition:of 'inicoess itself may be cast largely inthe- mold 'of this reference grouP.

Another pant is that reform efforts toI elevate the income- of rural areas arelikelY to, encourage outmigration, if these-hidings are _generally applicable. In re-

latively prinperous southwestern Minna-:Mt* there was a greater tendency to mi-rain:than in: the northeast However,,thil- greater *incidence of geographic mo-bility Was over shorter distances than inthe nOrtheast

The many significant associationstween military experience andsuggest other practical a lications.would seem possible, in thefindings, to partly influencevarying policies on +Compulsorytudning. The age of eligibilityaltered, u well u policies on defermento encourage desired effects.

Another influence which could enemy-age outmigration from farming and ruralcommunities is a widespread youthgram which mixes rural andyoungsters. The nonruml woulddisplay and support perceptions ofployment and residential opportunities'otherwise largely beyond theof the rural youngsters' reference