risco operacional - eólica

8/13/2019 Risco operacional - elica

1/17

Modeling and Monitoring of the Operational Risk in

Wind Farms South American Experience

Bernardo Reyes

Vestas Mediterranean


2/17

1.About Vestas Service in South America and Brazil

2.Modeling of the Risk in ind farms in o!eration

".Monitoring of the Risk in ind farms in o!eration

#.$he Benefit for the %ustomer& Reduction of the Risk and

Savings

'.$he South America and Brazil ()!erience

*.Structure to Su!!ort the +ynamic Risk Modeling and

Monitoring

,.-A

/.Summary

Agenda


3/17

"

About Vestas Service in South America and Brazil

ARGENTNA ,,0# M

!R!G!A" " M

#$%E 11#0, M

N#ARAG!A # M

&ra'il1# M


4/17

#

About Vestas Service in South America and Brazil

%a!acity already$3R

()* MW

%a!acity undere)ecution

(++ MW

()ecution about toStart

,-. MW

/ 0 -*1 MW

Signed 211

12* MW

Main office

4ortaleza 4acility


5/17

'

Modeling the Risk in ind 4arms in 3!eration

4ailures Rates !er every 4ailure Mode

Ambient $em!erature and 5umidity

6evel of !roduction

S!in78! of the ind

Seasonality. 9n South America that kind of !henom is named :$he Boy;$he !g

hen the ind farms start the o!eration0 the risk is modeling change the focus. ?o is not only

the variable 6A% @load and charges or turbulence and the modeling includes&


6/17

*


ind and Site RiskModeling

Service RiskModeling

6oad and %harges at +rive $rain

Site %heck for $urbulences ind Sector Management $heoretical 6ifetime for Main %om!onents

Risk of every failure mode

%BM for critical failures modes 3!timal ins!ection at minimum cost Real 6ifetime for Main %om!onents and Monitoring

Focus on 3ind farm4stechnical feasi5ilit6

Site Selection +evelo!ment ermits (ngineering %onstruction 3!eration

C2 years172 yearsD 71D years 171D years172 years17" years

Focus on minimi'ingoperati7e costs


7/17,


4or that modeling the stages are&

R%M Stage@


8/17/


8sing an on suite for the modeling the risk of every failure mode e considerer&

Severity of every failure mode @not only the drive train failures 4reEuency0 historic data and im!rovements of $< %a!ability of detection (nvironment0 Safety0 %ost0 8navailability Behavior @Mortal 9nfantry0 ?ormal0 ear0 %orrosion Survival 4unction and theoretical R86

%BM @condition base monitoring only for the critical failures modes @in red reventive Maintenance for standard failures modes @in green Run to failure strategy for lo im!act failures modes @in cyan

And define by risk the task needed to avoid;mitigate the effects by&


9/17F


ith the !riorization of the failures modes based on risk the ne)t ste! is model thesurvival function for every failures mode. +e!ending of the criticality %MB changes into!reventive maintenance or Euantity of s!are7!arts.


10/171

Monitoring the Risk in ind 4arms in 3!eration

4or that modeling the stages are&

3!timal 9ns!ection4reEuency Stage@6ocal0 for ind 4arm

S!are artsModeling Stage

@6ocal0 for ind 4arm

R86Monitoring Stage@6ocal0 for ind 4arm

3!timal 4reEuency define the number of interventions de!ending of the cost0 M$B4and M$$R and also0 if reEuired !ortable or online eEui!ment.

S!are arts Modelling give a number of s!are !arts reEuired in ind farm0 main are7

house to control the Risk at Minimum %ost

R86 give an ear Status of the devicesto !lanning a re!lacement hen fails


11/1711


9nsulate ear Monitoring @3ffline

artial +ischarges Monitoring @3fflineear Monitoring in slo s!eed devices @3ffline

3il Analysis @3ffline or 3nline

Vibrations Monitoring@3ffline or 3nline

9tGs !ossible monitoring allfailures modes and

eliminate all risk0 but thechallenge is make at

minimum cost of o!eration


12/1712


,,8 of failures modes based on senseGsins!ections and non7com!le) ins!ections@leakage0 noise0 tem!erature

128 of failures modes needs conditionmonitoring @vibrations0 ultrasonic0 electrical test

28 of failures modes fi)ed and !reventivemaintenance0 to eliminate the e)ternal factors

,,8 no need maintenance0 only s!are7!arts

*8 of failures modes needs redesign andcontinuous im!rovement

9n the industry the normal ratios for the different ty!es of maintenance to control the

o!erational risk at minimum cost.


13/171"

South America and Brazil ()!erience


14/171#

South America and Brazil ()!erience

9n South America the reliability strategy to monitoring and controlling the o!erational risk0starting at A!ril of 211 give the ne)t results&

1 MH in direct savings for the customers by re!airs I9$ @Iust in$ime ith loest level of lost !roduction0 in one year ofa!!lications of the risk monitoring

6o level of 640 under control by sym!toms monitoring for Brazil0minor than the target of 1.'J

6o level of 640 under control by sym!toms monitoring for %hile0Argentina and 8ruguay0 minor than the target of 1.'J

9m!rovement the commissioning and end of arranty !rocess itha lo im!act in 64

ith the models0 in a middle indo of time @and de!ending of thety!e of contract the time of sto!!ed turbine by maintenance ill bereduce in a #J


15/171'

Structure to Su!!ort the +ynamic Risk Modeling and Monitoring

A3M ' is a !erformance guarantee centred around measuring energy

based availability

Fi7e steps to esta5lishing lost production per WTG in the 3ind farm

9rimar6

neigh5ouringtur5ine

(

Secondar6

neigh5ouringtur5ine

1

WTG nacelleanemometer

,

$u5 heightanemometer

located at themeteorolog6mast nearestto the WTG

*

A7erageproduction fortur5ines of the

same modeland 3ith the

sameconfiguration

2

1WTG2

#

"

'

$he risk that gets

eliminated ith

(nergy based Availability

+ 19%


16/17

-A

1*


17/17

#op6right Notice

$he documents are created by Vestas ind Systems A;S and contain co!yrighted material0 trademarks0 and other !ro!rietary information. All rights reserved. ?o !art of the documents may be re!roduced or co!ied in any form or by any

means 7 such as gra!hic0 electronic0 or mechanical0 including !hotoco!ying0 ta!ing0 or information storage and retrieval systems ithout the !rior ritten !ermission of Vestas ind Systems A;S. $he use of these documents by you0 or

anyone else authorized by you0 i s !rohibited unless s!ecifically !ermitted by Vestas ind Systems A;S. Kou may not alter or remove any trademark0 co!yright or other notice from the documents. $he documents are !rovided :as is= and

Vestas ind Systems A;S shall not have any res!onsibility or liability hatsoever for the results of use of the documents by you.

$hank you for your attention

4or %ontact&Bernardo Reyes %ruz0 Vestas MediterraneanbereyLvestas.com'*72/22'F22
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]

risco operacional - eólica

Documents