russian oil and gas reserves ray leonard yukos uppsala, may 22, 2001
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RUSSIAN OIL AND GAS RESERVES
Ray Leonard
YUKOS
Uppsala, May 22, 2001
Factors to consider
• Existing Reserves
• Production Capability
• Export Capability
• Future Discoveries
New outlook for oil reserves in Russia and Middle East: reality or political
numbers game?
360
634
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
World
Ener
gy
Council (
1998
)
Prove
d (inte
rnat
.
audite
d 99-
00
)
rese
rves
of T
op 4*
46.540.2
81.8
93
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Russia & Russian companies’oil reserves
1988 Middle East (OPEC) oil reserves leap
Prove
d (A+B
+C1)
rese
rves
of T
op
10**
Prove
d (A+B
+C1)
and 5
0% o
f C2
rese
rves
of T
op 10*
*
19881987
(bn bbl) (bn bbl)
* LUK, YUKOS, SurgutNG,TNK ** 4 with Onako + Sidanco, Rosneft, Tatneft,Sibneft,Slavneft, Bashneft
Oil Equivalent Reserves
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
MiddleEast
Russia andCaspian
OtherOPEC
Non OPECexporters
OilGasBOE total
RUSSIAN AND CASPIAN PRODUCTION COMPARED TO WORLD PRODUCTIONRUSSIAN AND CASPIAN PRODUCTION COMPARED TO WORLD PRODUCTION
10,8
8,8
5,86,9
10,5
0,7
1,1
0,9
0,8
3,519,3
16,5
10,89,4
15,2
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
14,0
16,0
1986 1991 1996 2001 2010
mm
bo
/d
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
% W
orl
d P
rod
uct
ion
CaspianRussian% WORLD Production
TCF GAS
2,93
9
22,5919,06 20,47 20,47
1,69
3,74
4,87
1,94
3,885,82
1,06
2,121,41
2,82
0,07
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
RUSSIA CURRENT PRODUCTION AREAS CENTRAL ASIA EAST SIBERIA RUSSIAN OFFSHORE
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
220,000
2000 2001 2002
50 58 70
YUKOS PRODUCTION
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
1986 1987 19881989 1990 1991 19921993 1994 1995 19961997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Yearl
y P
rod
ucti
on
, million
ton
s
YUKOS PRODUCTION
Average daily rate per new well by Russian oil companies in 2001
75,4
58,0
27,724,2
22,3 21,319,7 18,5
12,8
8,3
4,0
22,4
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
t / d
YUKOSSibneft
ONAKO
SIDANCO
Lukoil
TNK
Slavneft
Rosneft
Surgutneftegas
Bashneft
Tatneft
Total
FSU oil is competitive on the world market
Reserves,bln.bbl
* - finding, development and production excl. transportation and taxes (CERA,Sept. 2001)
100
16
12
8
4
200 300 400 500 600 700
$/bbl
Iraq
Ku
wa
it
Iran
Saudi Arabia
UA
E
US
A,
stri
pp
er
we
lls
Wes
tern
Sib
eria
Ven
ezu
ela
(x-h
ea
vy)
Oth
er
La
tin
Am
eri
ca
Nig
eri
a
Alg
eria B
ras
il
No
rth
Sea
Wes
tern
Ca
na
da
Me
xic
o
Ch
ina
(o
ns
ho
re)
Ind
on
esi
a
USA, Mexican Gulf (deep)
US
A, A
lask
a
USA onshore
Angola
Kaz
ak
hst
an
Russia
Oth
er
Worldwide full-cycle upstream cost* of oil in 2001
800
Best Companies**
** - 2001 finding, development and production cost –3.7 $/bbl,
Including Government expenses
Ven
ezu
ela
(co
nv
)
OIL EXPORT ROUTES
GAS EXPORT ROUTES
Future Potential Reserves
0
50
100
150
200
250
Russia andCaspian
MiddleEast
DeepWater
OilGasTotal BOE
EXPLORATION MATURITYEXPLORATION MATURITY
Potential of Russian Shelf
• Seven major basins, each equal to or larger than the Gulf of Mexico or the North Sea
• Extensions of producing trends in Pechora Sea, Kara Sea and Sea of Okhotsk
• Thick sedimentary basins with all elements for hydrocarbon accumulations in other Arctic and Pacific Basins
RU
SUPPLY AND DEMAND 2000-2010
20 MMBOD22 MMBOD
15 MMBOD 16 MMBOD
US CONSUMPTION
8,0 7,0
6,05,0
2,54,0
2,5 3,0
2,01,0
1,0
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2010
mm
bo
d
OTHER
RUSSIA+CASPIAN
MIDDLE EAST
AFRICA
WEST HEMISPHERE
USA
W.EUROPE CONSUMPTION
7,05,0
3,04,0
3,0 4,0
2,0 3,0
0
4
8
12
16
2000 2010
mm
bo
d
RUSSIA+CASPIAN
AFRICA
MIDDLE EAST
EUROPE
EAST ASIA CONSUMPTION
6,0 5,0
11,016,0
1,02,0
1,0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2010
mm
bo
d
OTHER
RUSSIA+CASPIAN
AFRICA
MIDDLE EAST
EAST ASIA
18 MMBOD
24 MMBOD
CONCLUSIONS
• Russian oil reserves are probably in the range of 90-105 Billion barrels
• These reserves will be capable of sustaining an additional 35% increase over current levels (7.5 MMBOD) for an extended period
• New export oil and gas pipelines will allow additional Caspian oil to be marketed and supply Russian oil and gas to the Far East
• A combination of mature, developing and frontier exploration can add an estimated 40-50 billion barrels and larger amounts of natural gas
• Russian and Caspian oil exports will reach the level of one half of the Middle East by 2010
• Russian gas reserves allow a significant increase from current production and will assume increasing importance as world production eventually peaks and begins to decline