senior seminar fall 2008 isp 4860 section 003 (bowen) class 10, november 5 course web site:

Senior Seminar Fall 2008ISP 4860

Section 003 (Bowen)

Class 10, November 5Course web site: www.is.wayne.edu/drbowen/SenSemF08

11/5/08 Senior Seminar F08, Class 10 2

Election

• New York Times lead editorial:The Next President “Barack Obama won the election because he

saw what is wrong with this country: the utter failure of government to protect its citizens.”

• If we extend this to the world, that is not a bad statement of what “the human footprint” issue is – how to protect ourselves from the consequences of our dominance in the world.


Agenda

• Late / returned / future assignments• Research

Research Portfolio Self-Assessment• Content:

The credit crunch Tragedy of the Commons Sustainability

• Writing Grammar Sentences for Discussion


New Course resources

• www.is.wayne.edu/drbowen/SenSemF08 Trends in extinctions Dengue Fever treatments Orcas, salmon and fish farms Green jobs for rustbelt Economic problems for corn-based ethanol Blogs: DotEarth (managing the human

footprint) and Green Inc (business of renewable energy)

http://www.is.wayne.edu/drbowen/SenSemF08


Assignments Coming Up• Due three weeks ago: draft of Chapter 1

(overview) – 9 of 20 in• Due two weeks ago: drafts of (4 of 20 in)

Chapter 2 – status in focus area: 5 in Chapter 3 – trends in focus area: 4 in

• Due last week, 10/29: revised Chapter 1 (3 in of 20): 5 in

• Due this week, 11/5: Chapters 2 & 3 revised If no Chapter 1, Section Planner for Chapter 1 If you are behind, schedule for catching up


Assignments Coming Up

• November 12: drafts of Chapter 4: Sustainability in focus area (or lack

of sustainability) Chapter 5: summary of how your focus area

fits into total human footprint• November 19: nothing due• November 26: no class (go to Friday

classes, go to Thursday classes on 11/25)• December 3: Final paper (5 chapters)• December 10: 5-minute oral presentation


Assignment Status• I am getting worried about a pile-up at the

end Not concerned about people who are a few

days late I will not be able to review drafts that come

piling in at the end People who are very late will not have time to

do a good job Grades for these people may be delayed Reminder – a component of the course grade

comes for getting assignments in on time


Grade Letter

• You get two copies

• Me as an example

• For each assignment that you haven’t done (blank or No beside it), fill in the date by which you plan to have it done, or leave it blank if you do not intend to do it

• Turn that copy in this week


Research portfolio

• Self-assessment will be repeated two more times during semester 10/29 (bring research portfolio next week) 12/3

• Research Portfolio self-assessment


Credit Crunch

• Bloomberg.com headlines at 3:50 PM on Monday November 3 Manufacturing in U.S. Contracts Most Since 1982 as

Credit Freeze Worsens Auto Sales in U.S. Plunge; October Was the Worst

Month Since 1945, GM Says Treasury May Borrow Record $550 Billion in Quarter

as Rescue Swells Budget Banks Tighten Lending Standards Most on Record as

Economic Outlook Dims Blue Mountain Capital Freezes Withdrawals From Its

$3.1 Billion Hedge Fund Bankruptcy Filings Among Retailers Come Early Amid

Slowdown, Credit Crisis


Credit Crunch• Economy: a complicated system that we do not

understand• Theories of what is wrong:

The problem is that lenders have mortgage-backed securities that they cannot sell, and that they do not know the worth of.

The problem is that banks and other lenders are not making loans, bringing "the money wheel" almost to a halt.

The problem is that financial institutions do not have enough money on hand for their normal operations (capitalization). If just one institution, or a few, were in this situation, that would be OK, but too many are cutting back at the same time.


Credit Crunch• Theories of what is wrong (continued):

The problem is that consumers are cutting back on their consumption.

The problem is that manufacturers and other employers cannot find loans for continuing or expanding their operations.

The problem is that housing values are falling everywhere, making mortgages worth less, and so the value of mortgage-backed securities is falling.

The problem is that lenders and borrowers got greedy, and took too many risks.

The problem is that the markets for derivatives were poorly regulated.


Credit Crunch

• Theories of what is wrong (continued): The problem is that lenders and borrowers did

not have good information about what their risks were, and made bad choices.

The problem is that no one realized how interlocked the whole economy had become, and that problems in one area would spread.

• Without knowing what is wrong, we don’t know how to fix it.

• Ditto for the ecosystem!


Content: Managing the Commons

• “The Tragedy of the Commons” by Garrett Hardin, 1968 (SOP Pp 115 – 125) Article famous in environmental literature Applies to almost all topics here

• “Common” – a shared area that people can use for their own gain Original example – common pasture area Farmer thought that putting one additional cow to

graze there would degrade pasture a little, but that farmer would have a whole cow

Managing the Commons

SOP Pp 101 - 153


Tragedy of the Commons

• Common” – a shared area that people can use for their own gain Costs were shared, gains were private Hardin thought that additional cows would be

added until pasture destroyed for everyone Any common resource would be trashed

• No environmental laws then

• No Green Revolution



• Different types of commons had been abandoned one after the other Food – farmland owned Waste – sewage treatment Automobiles (no mileage, pollution or safety

standards then, but had to be regulated) Factories, insecticide use (now regulated),

fertilizer use (now regulated) Pleasure – sound pollution, advertising



• Hardin especially worried about population World population 3B 1960, 4B 1974, headed

for 12B Thought we would need some kind of control

to prevent overpopulation “Mutual Coercion Mutually Agreed Upon”

• Would extend to everything Water, fish, energy, global warming, health,

ecosystem, consumption


Management of the Commons

• Examples found of Commons that had been successfully managed 2003 articles in SOP

• “The Struggle to Govern the Commons” Pg 126• “Social Capital and the Collective Management of

Resources” Pg 142• “Managing Tragedies” Pg 149


“Struggle”

• Inshore fisheries had quotas established and enforced

• 1987 Montreal Protocol on CFCs to protect ozone

• Difficult if: Knowledge is incomplete or not shared Goals not shared Access is uncontrolled Locals do not benefit


“Struggle”

• Works best if several overlapping layers of control (“nesting”)


“Social Capital”

• Five types of capital Pg 143 Natural (ecosystem services) Social (value of social systems working by

established relationships) Human (knowledge, skills, health, nutrition) Physical (buildings, factories, irrigation

systems, etc.) Financial (money)


“Social Capital”

• Social capital necessary for managing a commons All affected groups (“stakeholders”) must be

part Education and involvement may be necessary

• Many fishing communities do not believe fisheries being depleted even if evidence says they are


“Managing Tragedies”

• Defining and agreeing on what the problem is – very important

• So is stakeholder knowledge

• Shared understanding

• One approach: for areas that are threatened by the local indigenous population, give that population a stake in that ecosystem.


Some Experiments

• Ecotourism. Tourists bring money to area, but must preserve the environment to keep them coming

• Elephant preservation – killed for ivory Numbers declining – kill animal, just take

tusks EBay agreed to ban online ivory sales Cites (monitors trade in endangered species)

allowed ivory sales for Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe and South Africa

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/21/us/21animals.html?_r=1&scp=2&sq=ivory%20sales&st=cse&oref=slogin

http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/28/ivory-for-sale-legally-and-controversially/?scp=1&sq=ivory%20sales&st=cse


Some Experiments

• Elephants (continued) These countries had protected elephants, had

growing elephant populations Sale was protested by

International Fund for Animal Welfare

• To protect fisheries, “catch shares” – each fisherman owns a portion of the catch, can trade it, sell it, buy from others, etc. Recent survey in Science says this works Not being used for largest fisheries

http://www.ifaw.org/

Sustainability

SOP Pp 154 - 193


Sustainability• Food

Food supply had kept up with population, but distribution was uneven – some areas too much, some starvation

Recent production, while increasing, is not keeping up with population

• Reasons: lack of investment, water shortages, urbanization and HIV/AIDS removing skilled adults from farms, Global Warming

• Will impact poor world the most• Controversy over GMOs may be over for poor world

Need to develop farming methods with less environmental impact

Eating lower on the food chain – must be made acceptable


Sustainability• Needed for a sustainable future:

Population stability Lower environmental impact per person

• Conservation• New methods

Food and water supplies More even distribution of health and economic

development• Need an integrated (interdisciplinary)

approach• Coordinate different approaches, e.g. for-

profit and non-profit


Sustainability

• Health Infectious diseases (“vector-borne”) still not

controlled in poor world• Some treatments very inexpensive• Economic development important for others

Diseases once under control in rich world re-emerging due to obesity, lack of exercise, poor diet

• Diabetes, cardio-vascular• Avoidance of vaccination (DB)


Sustainability• Climate Change (= Global Warming)

Must eventually reduce worldwide carbon emissions to a small fraction of today’s

Will require international cooperation Will it be a burden or an opportunity? Methods:

• Technical: conservation, low-carbon sources (e.g. ethanol, nuclear, solar), sequestration, geoengineering, virtual/digital

• Economic: green business, cap and trade, incentives

May need them all


DB

• Food/fish: eat lower on food chain, must make this acceptable

• Water: conservation, more treatment, suit quality to use Pricing to conserve, or is it a right? On Green Inc blog – using wastewater for

powerplant cooling• Ecosystem: be more cautious for now,

need to learn more, and quickly “End of carbon era” may help


DB• Health

Conflict between market-based solutions and services for por countries, e.g. for AIDS drugs

In rich countries, work on lifestyle

• Economic development important for improvements in poor world (health, food, water) Education How to get really poor countries “off the

ground?”• Agency


DB

• Consumption and Waste Reduce, recycle, reuse Biodegradable products Lifecycle design

• Urbanization Improve rural life Development Property rights for urban poor


DB

• Population Economic rights for women Economic development Education

Research and Writing


Writing #1

• List of sentences

• Discuss / correct sentences

• I will type corrections under each one and post on course web site for your reference.


Writing #2

• Grammar Review Sentence: Subject, verb, complete thought

• Problem: fragment (incomplete sentence)• Runon: two sentences butted together incorrectly

Who’s Vs whose Every day Vs everyday It’s Vs its Do Vs due Hyphen to join words in compound adjective


Writing #2

• Four small groups

• Answer questions from cards

• Answer goes on separate paper

• Report is names plus answers

• Go on to Portfolio discussion when done


Research

• Small groups Research Portfolio discussion

• Turn in self-assessment form• I will come around and look at them• Done when self-assessment forms are in


Research: People with same topic

Disease Kimberley, Patricia

Ecosystem Services Abdullah, Daralene, Androme

Energy Minyon, Scott, Gina

Food Meredith, Chemika, Martha, Louise, Yvonne, Cardale (?)

Population Willie

Water Judith, Michael

Sustainability Connie, Valerie (consumption)

People with the same topic discuss and report.

senior seminar fall 2008 isp 4860 section 003 (bowen) class 10, november 5 course web site:

Documents

senior seminar f08

week slide

bowen class

time slide

discussion slide

drafts of chapter

revised chapter

draft of chapter