senior seminar winter 2009 isp 4860 section 002 (bowen) class 5, february 11 course web site:

Senior Seminar Winter 2009ISP 4860

Section 002 (Bowen)

Class 5, February 11Course web site: www.is.wayne.edu/drbowen/SenSemW09

2/10/09 Senior Seminar W09, Class 5 2

Agenda• Tonight in 12 Manoogian

Rest of semester, too• Pictures• Late / returned / future assignments• Research

Searching research databases• Content:

The credit crunch Ecosystem services

• Writing: organization; sentences and grammar


Late Assignments

• Still people without a firm topic choice. If you chose a specific country for your topic

(e.g. US, Ethiopia), add an explanation of your approach.

Will you be interdisciplinary? How? Is your country typical of some aspect?

• Also people without Moodle accounts.• Reminder – a component of the course

grade comes for getting assignments in on time


New Course resources

• www.is.wayne.edu/drbowen/SenSemW09 Under “Other sites of interest” – links to:

• Article estimating $ value of Ecosystem Services• UN Millennium Ecosystem Assessment• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

(IPCC)

• Moodle (tools.comm.wayne.edu/moodle) Forum topic on searching – place to leave

(and get) tips, suggestions, etc.


Finding the publication date

• We went over this last class, and I said I would write it down

• To find the publication or update date for any web page, View the page normally Right click in any empty space in the page On the pop-up menu, choose “View Page Info”

(Internet Explorer) or “Properties” (others) See “Date modified”

• “Dynamic” pages always have current date


Assignments Coming Up

• This week (February 11) Paper Planner for Draft of Chapter 1

• Copy of Section Planner passed out last week, or go to the course website if you missed this

• Next week (February 18) List of references

• In a word processing file, turned in via Moodle

• Two weeks (February 25) Draft of Chapter 1 (overview) Word processing file turned in via Moodle


Choice of Subtopic

• Most people who have described a topic on Moodle so far have chosen a specific country.

• But either: Choose a region

OR Describe in more detail why your country is

representative, or assure me that you will still be interdisciplinary

World

Region (Africa)

Country (Chad)


Research portfolio

• Everyone got an A on this one

• Self-assessment will be repeated two more times during semester March 4 (self-assessment) April 8 (self-assessment and Instructor

assessment)


MLA Reference Practice

• We need more practice Repeat, maybe next week

• These graded on the curve – raised one letter grade

• Goal:1. Quote with citation (author page) (Kennedy

3) [mostly missing]

2. Works Cited [present but not 100% right]


Another word on overview

• Is there a “human footprint” crisis? We do have some time You can read commentators who say there is

no problem• If everyone in the world has ten feet by ten feet,

everyone will fit in Arizona so no land problem• If everyone becomes a vegetarian we have no

food problem

That’s my point – we can get through, but there will be BIG changes


Searching• Discussion:

1. Have you been finding enough good references?

2. What searches have worked so far?3. Other keyword ideas, search ideas4. Do you need help on this? Describe what

help.5. Do you want to schedule another day in the

Library? Only after everyone has their topic settled


Valerie Wade: Plan B Link

• Plan B by Lester Brown is a good resource for ideas and projects for sustainability

• The book is online, site found by Valerie Wade She posted a link in Moodle Forum I have copied the link to the course website

• Downloadable (chapter by chapter)• Searchable online – find the section you

need


Content: Recovery/”Bailout”• Two parts of economic crisis

1.Banks are afraid to lend, so credit dries up, economy slows down• credit moves much faster than cash

2.Consumers are afraid to consume• Spending is ⅔ of US economy• Retailers and manufacturers cut jobs so

consumers are more afraid

• Result: (money) wheel slows down• Economy is getting worse, and getting

worse faster all the time• Must solve 1 and 2 at the same time


Why do we need to fix the crisis before fixing other problems?

• If economy declines further, we will not have economic resources to fix the other problems, such as Excessive debt Consumers who don’t earn enough to

consume Exporting jobs

• Be careful: this is how poor countries will develop• Also: domestic manufacturers get fat and lazy

• Fix the crisis, then fix the other problems


Analogy for Crisis Plan

1. Imagine you have liver disease Can be fatal over years: treatment needed

2. Now on top of that you get cardiovascular disease, fatal within days Cardio – heart (like consumer spending) Vascular – the pipes (like banks) Must fix both for the cure to work

• Which one (1 or 2) do you treat first?


Why Are Banks Afraid to Lend?• Banks have two reasons for not wanting to

lendA.Not sure that anybody will pay loans backB.They own “toxic assets” that do not have a

clear value any more “Toxic asset”: stock with a mortgage as security Mortgage lender sold these, gave lender money

to sell more mortgages But value is now uncertain – no one wants to buy Investors won’t invest in the bank either So: bank doesn’t know if it is rich or poor So: bank is “frozen”


How do banks work?• Bank gets money from depositors and

investors Loans that money out and invests it, pays

depositors and investors• Long term loans Vs short term loans Vs cash• Must keep some cash (“reserve”) on hand to pay

depositors and investors who want their money• If they do not have enough reserves, result is a

“run on the bank” (everyone demanding their money now) that drives the bank out of business

• With toxic assets in the bank, bank does not know if it has enough reserves or even if it is solvent, can’t get more investment


Banks are funny that way…

• Any sign that a bank may be insolvent (“sign of weakness”) can start a run Therefore, banks usually do not admit that

they need help, or even that they have toxic assets

• “Accountability:” public wants to know who got the money, what did they did with it But: banks (especially those which need help)

may then refuse government help In this case, problem #1 does not get solved


But wait there’s more…

• If banks foreclose on mortgages, more houses for sale

• Supply & demand: housing prices go down• More mortgages fail – people walk away• Result: value of mortgage-backed securities

(“toxic assets”) goes down• Therefore: mortgage relief/renegotiation

may help to reduce number of foreclosures, stabilize banks


“Geithner Plan” for banks

• Get private investors to buy toxic assets Government role: insure against large losses?

• TARP 2: More capital (money) to banks to increase reserves

• Encourage more consumer lending Credit card limits back up More student and auto loans

• Financial world wants more details


Fixing Part 2

• Part 2: consumers afraid to consume Government can force spending – stimulus Debt relief & tax breaks don’t work – they don’t

get spent Must last until confidence returns

• Two rules from David’s work on idle speed: Start early before problem gets bigger Do too much rather than too little

• This means you will have to take stimulus away in time, later


Dangers for Recovery

1. If stimulus continues too long, problem• Creates too much demand, leads to extreme

inflation, lack of investment2. If stimulus is not long-term economically

productive, problem• Then we cannot pay back the loans• Will not have resources to fix other problems

3. If we get used to government being in charge, problem

• We lose initiative and innovation


A Favorite Guess of Mine

• One of my guesses is that “agency” is important in our economy “Agency:” we can change things ourselves

• Result 1: if we don’t like the stuff we can buy, we make new stuff

• Result 2: we end up with stuff we love• Result 3: we buy lots of it• Result 4: the money wheel spins really fast

here


Why is the economic crisis in this course?

1. Illustrate that there are complex systems that are critical to our well-being but that we do not understand

• Like the ecosystem

2. Important for economic development of less-developed countries

• How do we advise or help other countries to expand their economies if we do not understand how ours works?


Content: Consumption and Waste

• Money wheel spins one way• “Stuff” spins the other way

Packaging becomes waste immediately Some stuff is not used, becomes waste quickly

(food) Everything that was in the package also

becomes waste – just more slowly

• Running out of places to put the garbage• Can we find another way to spin the wheel?


Sovereign Wealth Funds

• Another effect of US economic unbalance• Sovereign Wealth Funds – the accounts

built up by our international creditors who are not market-based China Saudi Arabia Russia

• Will they use that wealth against us? Probably more subtle effects


Content: Ecosystem Services

• Ecosystem services In SOP, “Prospects for Biodiversity” E.S.: emphasize what the natural world does

for us and put a dollar value on it• Not 100% precise: do we include aesthetic values

such as beauty and relaxation, and what are they worth in $?

One estimate (link on course website) $16-54T, when world GDP was $18T

• Much of estimated value outside of markets


Ecosystem Services• One list (Ecological Society of America, Union of Concerned

Scientists): moderate weather extremes and their impacts disperse seeds mitigate drought and floods protect people from the sun’s harmful ultraviolet rays cycle and move nutrients protect stream and river channels and coastal shores from erosion detoxify and decompose wastes control agricultural pests maintain biodiversity generate and preserve soils and renew their fertility contribute to climate stability purify the air and water regulate disease carrying organisms pollinate crops and natural vegetation


Ecosystem Services• Another list (Science article)

Atmospheric gas regulation Climate regulation Disturbance regulation Water regulation Water supply: Storage and retention of water Erosion control and sediment retention Soil formation Nutrient cycling Waste treatment Pollination Biological regulations of populations Habitat for resident and transient populations Food production Raw materials (e.g. lumber) Genetic resources Recreation Cultural


Ecosystem Services

• Biodiversity Importance: indicates how reliable that

service is• Biodiversity is the raw material for adapting to

changes• If biodiversity decreases, extinction gets closer• Without biodiversity, cannot genetically adapt to

changes• Humans can adapt in other ways than genetic but

natural world cannot


Ecosystem Services

• Biodiversity We are in the midst of large wave of

extinctions – one of biggest ever• May be due to us• Deforestation pressures to gain farmland

o We don’t even know what most of the species are

• Fresh and saltwater overfishing, loss of diversityo Fish are adapting: stay small, propagate early

» May not be healthy in long run

• Cropland - monoculture


Ecosystem Services

State of the World 2008


EcosystemServices• Not a food chain

but a food web• Many of the links

we don’t evenknow

• Yet increasingly,we are in chargebecause we areso dominant


Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

• UN project to do a comprehensive assessment of all ecosystems Years before and after 2000 Four areas of Ecosystem Services

• Provisioning (water, food, fiber, etc.)• Regulating (air and water purification, flood control,

etc.)• Cultural (Aesthetic, spiritual, recreational, etc.)• Supporting the other three (nutrient recycling, soil

formation, etc.)


Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

• General findings that are worse than previously thought Unfamiliar ecosystems in trouble also Interactions between ecosystems Unsustainable use

• Examples: overfishing, overgrazing, overlogging (Michigan)

Gap between world rich and poor is increasing


Biodiversity• Pretty sure species are disappearing at a

high rate

• Suspicion we might be a big cause (not that we are evil, but that we are ignorant) We can adapt to change quickly, and the

species we tend to we can help But wild species take thousands of

generations (insects and pests do well!) Forests, coral reefs, wetlands all shelter the

young of many species from predation


Biodiversity

• We need to become smarter about this

• Until then we probably need to be more cautious

• Is there a risk to us? We don’t know, but maybe


Back to Recovery Plan

• Recovery money should go to economically productive uses Grow the economy or we will not be able to

pay for the Recovery Plan• It’s borrowed money

• But we expect/want economy will change What is economically productive will change Try to guess about future economy, put

money in those activities


#1 Reason for Writing

• To organize your own thinking

#1 Way to Good Writing• Have something you want to say

Pretend if necessary – it works!

#1 Way to Find Mistakes• Read your Essay out loud to yourself, and

listen


• www.is.wayne.edu/olgt then link to Writing Guide, or use The Everyday Writer

• Writing Center in 2310 UGL 313-577-2544

• Many of you have heard this before, but the problem is applying this stuff

• More in the next slides

More Examples and Details


Common Writing Problems• Functional grammar

Rules of grammar have a purpose – to transmit meaning

Rules of grammar are always changing Different grammars for different groups Get too far from the group’s grammar and

you are not understood (must change with changes)

The further you get from the group’s grammar, the harder it is to understand you

Being able to use good standard grammar is like dressing well for a job interview


Organization

• Many possibilities for organization Historical Logical Specific to general, or general to specific Combination

• Signal transitions from one topic to another Paragraphs help here

• New topic new paragraph


Quick-and-Easy Organization

• Write body first

• One you have figured out what you are going to say (the Body), write the Introduction and Conclusion afterwards

• Body should have general statements and specific examples and quotes

• Deal with topics one at a time, then move on to next (usually)


Organization Exercise

• Groups• Get packet of cards• Put cards in the best order you can figure

out• Group Report (separate piece of paper):

Names Order of sentences (by number) Which model of organization did you use?


Sentences

• A sentence: Verb (action) Subject (did the action) Complete thought (starts with capital, period at end)

• (Y/N) Because he hit the ball.

• (Y/N) John hit the ball.


Sentences

• Is it a sentence? Consider it all by itself. (Read it out loud)

• Common sentence problem #1: Sentence fragment – something that starts

with a capital and ends with a period but is not a sentence

• Because he hit the ball. John ran to first base.• Fix by joining to main thought with a comma (,)

o Because he hit the ball, John ran to first base.


Sentences

• Is it a sentence? Consider it all by itself.• Common sentence problem #2:

Run-on sentence – two or more sentences written as one

• John hit the ball he ran to first base.• Fix by breaking into two sentences

o John hit the ball. He ran to first base.

• Or by joining with semicolon (;) to show causalityo John hit the ball; he ran to first base


Number (singular/plural)

• Both subject and verb have number If these are not the same, signals conflict

• Members join the club• A member joins the club• “One s”

• Without a reason, do not change number from sentence to sentence (Bad) People should take care of their health.

You should take your vitamins.


Tense (past, present, future)

• Without a reason, do not change tense from sentence to sentence

Citations• “Scientific investigation is not, as many

people seem to suppose, some kind of modern black art.” (Huxley, 1)

• Cite the source even if you are paraphrasing


Punctuation

• Apostrophe (‘) Possession (‘s or s’)

• Some words inherently possessive, no ‘ (e.g. theirs)

Never for pluralization Contraction (don’t use contractions in the essay)

• “Should of gone” incorrect, from “Should’ve” for “Should have”

• Lists Separate list items with commas (last one is optional) If any list has a comma inside, separate items with

semicolon


Wrong Word

• Some words are commonly confused – memorize or use list or dictionary its Vs it’s whose Vs who’s their Vs there too Vs to accept Vs except Many, many more – see Online Writing

Tutor


Applying This

• Groups (earlier groups OK)• Get a set of cards, go off together• DO NOT WRITE ON CARDS (please)• Make choices, decide why that is the right

choice• Turn in group report:

Names Choices Explanations

senior seminar winter 2009 isp 4860 section 002 (bowen) class 5, february 11 course web site:

Documents