spring von 2003 keynote
DESCRIPTION
My keynote address at the 2003 Spring VON conference, presented on April 1, 2003. I pointed to real 100/100 Mbps Internet connectivity (deployed in 1999-2000, in Ulmea Sweden) emphasizing this was only possible by getting control of local fiber away from the incumbent PTT.TRANSCRIPT
The Long and
Winding RoadBrough Turner
Senior VP & CTO
VoIP over FTTH
Newton Corner Fiber Project
� 78 homes mixed 1- and 2-family neighborhood
090+% participation along deployment route
0Community organization - volunteers
0Commercial contracts for all outside work
� Ethernet over buried multi-mode fiber
April 2003 Slide 2
� Ethernet over buried multi-mode fiber
0Fiber, construction and 100 Mbps equipment costs less than $2000 per household
0130 days from construction start to live service
� 45 Mbps link to the Internet
0Monthly service cost: $24 per household
Sorry, April Fool’s Day...
but
� Similar project in Ulmea, Sweden completed in the winter of 1999-2000
0Buried fiber (and coax and 6 twisted pairs)
060 out of 62 single-family
April 2003 Slide 3
060 out of 62 single-family homes participating
010/100 Mbps electronics
066 MHz link to Internet
� Costs per household
0one-time: <$2000
0 recurring: $10/monthhttp://mg0703.ersboda.ac/tomas/mattgrand/index.shtml
VoIP Today
� We’ve won the battle for Mind Share!
But...
� 89% of international traffic is still TDM
� Most local voice traffic circuit-switched TDM
April 2003 Slide 4
� Most local voice traffic circuit-switched TDM
� Most installed PBXs are circuit-switched TDM
0 In 2002: 82% of new PBXs were not IP-enabled
� All mobile voice services are circuit-switched
� Convergence will be a twenty year process
� with substantial progress in next few years
Mind Share is Important
VoIP Adoption
70
80
90
100
April 2003 Slide 5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
We’re about here
VoIP
A Product, Not a Service
� Remember Federal Express ZapMail?
0New (1984), fast (2 hour) document delivery service based on Group 4 Fax, but
0People purchased their own Group 3 Fax machines
0G3 Fax leveraged the existing telephone network
April 2003 Slide 6
0G3 Fax leveraged the existing telephone network
� VoIP telephony will become a product, not a service, eventually...
0Utilizing the Internet, and evolving Internet directories (like ENUM)
0Accessing old phones via gateway service means long transition interval...
Boring VoIP
� IP telephony being treated as an incremental improvement
0Better cheaper telephone service
� Internet has been disruptive everywhere else
April 2003 Slide 7
� Internet has been disruptive everywhere else
0Email
0World Wide Web
0New approach to community, identity & information
Why should telephonybe any different?
Disruptive VoIPPush-to-Talk Voice Instant Messaging
� Don’t try to compete with Nextel
0Focus on teenagers
0Test it with gamers
0Combine with ideas on my next slide...
� Drive device technology to best leverage
April 2003 Slide 8
� Drive device technology to best leverage available service infrastructure
0 in support of disruptive uses
0Test clients for PCs, Palm, Blackberry & other WLAN devices, and 2.5G/3G mobile handsets
0Focus on a device offer, not a service offer
Disruptive VoIPAlways-On Workgroup Conferences
� VoIP microphone always on-line to a word-spotting speech recognizer
0“Hey Brian are you there?”
0Recognizing “Brian” causes the spoken phrase to be forwarded to Brian’s handset and an immediate
April 2003 Slide 9
be forwarded to Brian’s handset and an immediate conversation to ensue
0Half-duplex, and 1 second latency is OK!
0VoIP can work well today
� Has the potential to redefine what we mean by telephony...
� a.k.a. the Star Trek Communicator
Historical PerspectiveEarly British Railroad Development
� RR construction authorized by Parliament*
0Miles of track; Capital in millions of pounds sterling
Year Miles Capital Year Miles Capital 01833 218 5.5 1842 55 5.301834 131 2.3 1843 90 3.9
April 2003 Slide 10
01834 131 2.3 1843 90 3.901835 202 4.8 1844 805 20.501836 955 22.9 1845 2,896 59.5 01837 543 13.5 1846 4,540 132.601838 49 2.1 1847 1,295 39.501839 54 6.5 1848 373 15.301840 0 2.5 1849 17 3.9
01841 14 3.4 1850 4.1 70.4
* Andrew Odlyzko, U of Minn., private correspondence
3000
4000
5000
Mileage
Long History of Techno Bubbles
Overinvestment and Crashes
April 2003 Slide 11
0
1000
2000
1833
1835
1837
1839
1841
1843
1845
1847
1849
Mileage
Railways authorized by British Parliament (not necessarily built)< http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko/talks/index.html >
19th Century British Railroads
� Investor attitudes in 1840 & 1850 were extremely negative, but ...
� More than 70 years of steady traffic growth
0depressions had only slight effect on growth rate
Cycles of financial investment
April 2003 Slide 12
� Cycles of financial investment
0“Irrational exuberance” to near zero investment
0Many bankruptcies, but…No serious interruption of service!
� Over long term, many fortunes were made
0and some were lost
Internet Backbone Traffic in U.S.
� Roughly doubles every year (90% in 2002)
� Consumer getting some Moore’s law benefit
100000
1000000
TB
/mo
nth
(in
De
c)
April 2003 Slide 13
� Where do we focus to best advance VoIP ?
1
10
100
1000
10000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Traffic (low est.) Traffic (high est.)
TB
/mo
nth
(in
De
c)
Based on data from A. Odlyzko, U of Minn.
Access is the Bottleneck
Internet
& other
Voice
Broadband
1000-to-1 disconnect !
April 2003 Slide 14
& other
Public IP
Services
ERP
Sales
Finance
Video
Ethernet
LAN
Switches
Broadband
Modem
or
Access
Gateway
Gigabit Ethernet
10/100/1000 Mbps
Ethernet
Enormous Long-
Haul Bandwidth
Local Loop
1.5 Mbps ?
100
120
140
160
180
200
Broadband Adoption Rates -
Outpacing Cellular Adoption Rates
Co
nn
ectio
ns (
mill
ion
s)
April 2003 Slide 15
0
20
40
60
80
100
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
United States Western Europe Asia Pacific Rest of World
Source: IDC, January 2002
Co
nn
ectio
ns (
mill
ion
s)
Obvious Vested Interests
� Traditional telco sells voice services
0email and web browsing represent new revenue, but VoIP threatens voice revenues
� Cable company makes money on TV
0email and web browsing represent new revenue
April 2003 Slide 16
0email and web browsing represent new revenue
0VoIP could be a new service (at telco prices)
� Wireless service providers sell voice mobility
0 looking for data services where they can “capture the added value”
0browsing by the kilobyte, if at all
The Real Problem
First Mile Right-of-Way
� Many long distance right-of-way alternatives
0 just look at all the national and international backbones that have been built
� Limited space in local rights-of-way
0part of justification for original telco monopolies
April 2003 Slide 17
0part of justification for original telco monopolies was reduced overhead wiring clutter
0already have water, sewer, electricity, gas, phone & CableTV organizations digging the street…
0 long, and different, regulatory history for each
� Fiber could replace both phone and cable TV
0big, big, long and nasty fight ahead...
Photo by Dr. William T. Verts, http://www-unix.oit.umass.edu/~verts/things/things.html
What Do I Want?
� User ownership, or control, of first mile fiber
0 from my house or business to an aggregation center where alternate IP service providers are available
How might we get there?
April 2003 Slide 18
� CLEC access to first mile right-of-way
0on equal terms
0 if nothing else, biz & home owners partner with CLECs for local fiber builds and fiber maintenance
� Municipal provision of first mile fiber
0 fiber only, to aggregation center where competitive carriers are available
Interim Alternatives
� Ethernet & other Layer 2 services
0To aggregation center with competitive ISPs
� Wireless bypass !
0WLAN volumes driving prices down performance up
April 2003 Slide 19
0Vivato WiFi switch & directional antenna provides 33 Mbps over 4 km outdoors; 50 km pt-to-pt
0Higher capacity links costly, but available
0Meshes are robust way to connect many parties back to a few fiber access points
0Unlicensed spectrum simplifies local user and community activities
Image © Telex Communications, Inc. (www.telex.com)
Regulatory Competition
� The Internet is global
� Regulation is national, regional and local
0From the EU regulators in Brussels to local city governments controlling local rights-of-way
Threaten politicians: “others are ahead of us”
April 2003 Slide 20
� Threaten politicians: “others are ahead of us”
0Korea and Japan lead US in broadband per capita
0Asia and Europe lead US in cell phone services
� Is it enough? to get fiber to my home???
0Time will tell
� Meanwhile, I’m looking into wireless bypass...
Enormous Opportunity Ahead
� Continuous gains in underlying technology
� 6B humans, 2B phones
� Convergence means replacing today’s phones
VoIP Adoption
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
We are here
April 2003 Slide 21
replacing today’s phones
Substantial, long term, worldwide growth!
Significant positiveimpact on humanity
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10
20
30
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