startup failure is not what you think (redux)
DESCRIPTION
This presentation explores new ways of looking at failure in Startups. Specifically concept of "unfail" or "unfailure" is presented and explained. Lean Startup elements are connected with a failure scenarios and lessons learnedTRANSCRIPT
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STARTUP FAILURE IS NOT WHAT YOU THINK
Sergey L. Sundukovskiy, Ph.D.
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FAILURE
“A person who never made a mistake never tried anything new.”
-Albert Einstein
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FAILURE
“I’ve missed more than 9,000 shots in my career. I’ve lost almost 300 games. 26 times I’ve been trusted to take the game winning shot and missed. I’ve failed over and over and over again in my life, and that is why I succeed.”
-Michael Jordan
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Sergey L. SundukovskiyCo-Founder, CTO & Chief Product OfficerCompanies: PushPoint, Cinsay, LowerMyBills, DIRECTV, CBWInterests: Entrepreneur, Speaker, Mentor, AdvisorEducation: BA CS, MS IT, PH.D. Business
Sergey L. Sundukovskiy, Ph.D. has over 20 years of experience serving in capacities of Chief Technology Officer, Chief Information Officer and Chief Product Officer. Sergey specializes in implementation of subscription based high volume SaaS platforms, with strong emphasis on early stage product development and market deployment. Specific areas of expertise include A/B Testing, Big Data, Video Management, eCommerce, RTB platforms and Cloud Computing. Education: B.A. in Computer Science from the University of California, San Diego, and an M.S. in Information Technology from the University of Liverpool. Ph.D. in Information Technology Management from the School of Business and Technology, Capella University.
INTRODUCTIONBACKGROUND &
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SERIALFAILURE
The Story of One Dissertation
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Failure Does Not Mean You Are Finished
WHAT ISFAILURE?
?
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You Are Finished If You Have NOT Learned
Anything
WHAT ISFAILURE?
?
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Your Failures Should Be“Learn Alots”
WHAT ISFAILURE?
?
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Complete FailureLights Out
FAILURETYPES
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Partial FailureAcquihires
FAILURETYPES
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Failure on the Way to Success
Lose the Battles Win the War
FAILURETYPES
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Complete FailureFills Ecosystem with
Experience
WHY ISFAILURE IMPORTANT?
?
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Partial FailureSecond Lease on Life
WHY ISFAILURE IMPORTANT?
?
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Failure of the Way to Success
Completes Success Cycle (Failure -> Learning ->
Success)
WHY ISFAILURE IMPORTANT?
?
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What Happens When Failure Is NOT Accepted
FAILUREDONE WRONG
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Japan Recession of the 90’s• Companies Would Not Downsize
• Banks Would Not Foreclose• Government Would Bailout
Banks
FAILUREDONE WRONG
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Why is Failureso Common?
Failing isSO HOT right now!
REASONS FOR FAILURE
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What Does Failure Look Like?• No Addressable Problem
• No Market
• No Effective Team
• No Customers
• No Product
• No Product Positioning
• No Money
PERFECTFAILURE
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Beginning of theStartup Journey
REMARKABLESIMILARITY
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End of theStartup Journey
REMARKABLESIMILARITY
WOAH…Deja Vu!
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Building a Startup Is An Exercise In Unfailure
BUILDING A STARTUP
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• Constant Failure
• Must Have the Right
Tools• Impossible to Get Lucky and Win
• All About the Team
• It Is Even More About
Execution• It Is All About Micro-
Pivots
WHAT DO STARTUPS AND GOLF HAVE IN COMMON?
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Micro-Pivots After Many Failures In…
ROAD TOSUCCESS
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Unfail Startup Founding Team
We’ll hit somethin
g, eventually
.
ROAD TOSUCCESS
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Unfail Minimal Viable Product
ROAD TOSUCCESS
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Unfail Product Development
ROAD TOSUCCESS
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Unfail Product Marketing
ROAD TOSUCCESS
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Unfail CustomerAcquisition
ROAD TOSUCCESS
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Unfail BusinessModel
ROAD TOSUCCESS
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• Too Many Steps to Get
There
Wrong Way To Unfail (Tail of Two Extremes)
• Hole in One Win Strategy
• Giving Up Too Soon
• Listening to Too Many People at
Once
UNFAILURESTRATEGIES
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Diving Lesson
GIVING UPTOO SOON
KEEP GOING!
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• Have Big Targets To Hit
Right Way To Unfail
• Unfail Most Important Things
First• Change Strategy at the Right
Time• Good Return on Luck
• Nearest Danger Strategy
UNFAILURESTRATEGIES
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Malcolm GladwellBig Targets
BULLETS BEFORE CANNONBALLS
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Difficult Failure Recovery• Team
• Operational MO aka Process
• Conflict Resolution
• Product Focus
FIRST THINGS
FIRST
1
st
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Change of Direction (Tripwires) • High Churn
• High Acquisition Cost
• Low Viral Score
GOLDEN
RULE
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Jim CollinsReturn on Luck
GET LUKY
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Do NOT Need to Outrun a Shark, Just Your Buddy
SECOND
LAST
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First Who, Then What, Then How
UNFAILTEAM
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Get the Right People on the Bus
UNFAILTEAM
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• Complementary Skillset
• Worked Together Before
• Similar Work Ethic
• Similar Commitment Level
• Similar Conflict Resolution Style
• Can Disagree and Commit
• Ideal Number of Co-Founders is 3
CO-FOUNDER
UNFAILCRITERIA
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CO-FOUNDER
UNFAILCRITERIA
(cont.) BAD
NOT GOOD
GOOD
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Rat + Cactus
IDEALCO-FOUNDER
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WHERE TOFIND ONE?
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Plan For Failures
UNFAILPRODUCT
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• Wireframing
• Mocking
• Clickable Prototype
• Dynamic Prototype
• MTP
• MVP
UNFAILPRODUCTLIFECYCLE TESTING
TESTING
TESTING
TESTING
TESTING
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Highest Paid Person’s Opinion
46
UNFAILHiPPO
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“I Find Your Lack of Testing Disturbing”
47
UNFAILTESTING
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HISTORY OF FAILURE
Aliens Did NOT Build Pyramids
Testing (Success)Testing (Failed)Testing (Failed)
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Unfail Usability Testing
What vs. Why
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Unfail Usability Testing (cont.)
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Unfail Usability Testing (cont.)
Eye Tracking
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• Attention
• Emotion
• Task Completion Time
• Hovering
• Clicks
• Hotspotting
• Path
WHATARE THEY TRYING TO UNFAIL?
?
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Rise of the Crowds
Unfail User Testing
Rise of the Crowds
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Mechanical Turk
Microtasking Crowdsourcing Platform
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Usability Study Setup
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Usability Study Setup (cont.)
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Usability Study Setup (cont.)
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Usability Study Setup (cont.)
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Usability Study Setup (cont.)
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Usability Study Results (cont.)
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Usability Study Results (cont.)
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Unfail User Feedback
It Is All About Uncensored Feedback
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Unfail User Feedback (cont.)
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Unfail User Feedback (cont.)
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Usability Testing Tools
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A/B Multifactorial Split Testing
Very Different
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A/B Singlevariate Split Testing
Slightly Different
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Multivariate Testing
That’s a Lot of Combinations
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Google Website Optimizer
Omniture Test & Target
Unfail Experimentation
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Unfail Experiment Chaining