supply demand structure of synthetic fibers

Medium and Long TermProspects of World Fiber Demand and

Supply/Demand Structure of Synthetic Fibers

Third Conference ofThird Conference ofAsian Chemical Fiber Industries Asian Chemical Fiber Industries

PresidentPresidentJapan Chemical Fibres AssociationJapan Chemical Fibres Association

Hiroto MatsuoHiroto Matsuo

II Fiber Supply and Demand in 1998Fiber Supply and Demand in 1998

IIII Forecast of Fiber Supply and Demand in 2003Forecast of Fiber Supply and Demand in 2003

IIIIII International Trade of Four Major Synthetic FibersInternational Trade of Four Major Synthetic Fibers

IVIV Forecast of Supply and Demand for Synthetic Fiber Raw MaterialsForecast of Supply and Demand for Synthetic Fiber Raw Materials

VV ConclusionsConclusions

2

3


Worldwide Final Fiber Consumption in 1998

(Million tons)(Million tons)

Forecast FiguresForecast Figures Actual ResultsActual Results

All Fibers 44.5All Fibers 44.5

Cotton 19.3Cotton 19.3

Synthetic Fibers 20.9Synthetic Fibers 20.9

45.345.3

19.019.0

22.722.7

4

Million tonsMillion tons

5-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Cotton Wool Synthetic Cellulosic

Worldwide Final Fiber ConsumptionDifferences between Forecast Figures and

Actual Results in 1998

Capacity Production


6Forecast Actual10

12

14

16

18

20

Production Capacity and Production of Four Major Synthetic Fibers in Asia

Capacity Utilization 78%Capacity Utilization 78%

Gap 4.1 Million tons

7

Capacity

1,6762,7433,8552,7263,4102,506

16,916

Production

1,3212,4833,4462,4762,7552,343

14,823

JapanKoreaChinese TaipeiASEANChinaOthersAsian total

Demand

9992,0572,4852,5703,9052,488

14,503

1,6452,9253,8122,5235,1602,598

18,663

1,2812,4173,1031,7644,3441,689

14,599

JapanKoreaChinese TaipeiASEANChinaOthersAsian total

8861,3481,9101,6805,7491,883

13,457

ForecastForecast

ActualActual

Forecast Figures and Actual Results in 1998Forecast Figures and Actual Results in 1998

(1000 tons)(1000 tons)

1000 tons1000 tons

Differences between Forecast Figures and Actual Results in 1998Differences between Forecast Figures and Actual Results in 1998

Capacity Capacity

-30-30

182182

-43-43

-203-203

1,7501,750

9191

1,7471,747

Production Production

-40-40

-66-66

-343-343

-711-711

1,5901,590

-654-654

-224-224

JapanJapan

KoreaKorea

Chinese TaipeiChinese Taipei

ASEANASEAN

ChinaChina

OthersOthers

Asian totalAsian total

DemandDemand

-112-112

-709-709

-575-575

-890-890

1,8451,845

-605-605

-1,046-1,0468

9


IIII Forecast of Fiber Supply and Demandin 2003Forecast of Fiber Supply and Demandin 2003

0

10

20

30

40

50

1970 80 90 98 `03

Worldwide Final Fiber Consumption

Million tons

70-803.1%

80-902.7%

90-982.2%

98-032.0%

10

Worldwide Final Fiber Consumption

11

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

70 80 90 98 03

Cotton

Synthetic

Others

Million tons

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1998 2003

Worldwide Production Capacity ofFour Major Synthetic Fibers


PPolyester Folyester F

NNylon Fylon FNNylon Fylon F

Total Total 28.928.9Total Total 28.928.9 Total Total 33.633.6Total Total 33.633.6

AAcrylic Scrylic SAAcrylic Scrylic S

PPolyester Solyester SPPolyester Solyester S

453

5

9

1212

10

1414

12

ProductionProductionProductionProduction

Case ACase ACase ACase A 27.027.027.027.0

Case BCase BCase BCase B 30.330.330.330.3

CapacityCapacityCapacityCapacity

33.633.633.633.6

(Million tons)(Million tons)

FinalFinalConsumptionConsumption

FinalFinalConsumptionConsumption

25.425.425.425.4

13

Forecast of Worldwide Production of Four Major Synthetic Fibers in 2003

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

Gap-between Production and Final Consumption-

(in 2003)

Million tons

Case BCase B Case ACase A

8.24.9

1.6

Capacity Final Cons.Production14

Gap -between Production and Mill Consumption-

(in 2003)　

-0.20.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.8

Case A Case B

Million tons

Polyester FPolyester SNylon FAcrylic S

Oversupply

Supply Shortage15

AAmericas

mericas

AAmericas

mericas

OOthersthers

OOthersthers

OOthersthers

OOthersthers

AAsiasiaAAsiasia

WW Europe

Europe

WW Europe

Europe

EE Europe

Europe

EE Europe

Europe

AAsiasiaAAsiasia

WW Europe

Europe

WW Europe

Europe

EE Europe

Europe

EE Europe

Europe

AAmericas

mericas

AAmericas

mericas

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Million tons

Case ACase ACase ACase A Case BCase BCase BCase B

16


(in 2003)　

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

CCapacityapacityCCapacityapacity MMill Consumptionill ConsumptionMMill Consumptionill Consumption

Polyester FilamentPolyester FilamentMillion tonsMillion tons

Forecast of Fiber Supply and Demandin Asia

Case ACase A Case BCase B

(as of 2003)

17Production

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Polyester FilamentPolyester FilamentMillion tonsMillion tons


in Asia

(as of 2003)

18

OthersOthers

CaseCase A ACaseCase A A Case Case BBCase Case BB

0.60.60.60.61.71.7

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Polyester StaplePolyester StapleMillion tonsMillion tons (as of 2003)

Forecast of Fiber Supply and Demandin Asia

19CCapacityapacityCCapacityapacity MMill Consumptionill ConsumptionMMill Consumptionill ConsumptionCase ACase A Case BCase B

Production

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Polyester StaplePolyester Staple


GapGap A AGapGap A A Gap Gap BBGap Gap BB

(as of 2003)

OthersOthers

0.450.450.450.45 1.351.351.351.35

20

21




0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1985 1990 1995 199810

12

14

16

18

20

22

Direct Exports of Four Major Synthetic Fibers

Export ratioExport ratioExport ratioExport ratio

ProductionProduction

ExportExport

Million tons %

22

Percentage Share of Imports in Mill Consumption

<Four Major Synthetic Fibers in China>

23

25.5%

16.3%

1.47 (1.47 (Million tonsMillion tons))1.47 (1.47 (Million tonsMillion tons)) 1.16 (1.16 (Million tonsMillion tons))1.16 (1.16 (Million tonsMillion tons))ImportsImportsImportsImports

<1998><1998><1998><1998> <2003><2003><2003><2003>

U.S. Apparel Imports by Origin

East Asia

Others

CBI /NAFTA

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98

Billion SMEBillion SME

(Note) Asia: China, ASEAN, Korea, Chinese Taipei and Hong Kong(Note) Asia: China, ASEAN, Korea, Chinese Taipei and Hong Kong24

25





Terephthalic Acid (in 2003)

0

10

20

30

Capacity Demand Case A Case B


for　 Fiber uses

Required PTA26

Caprolactam (in 2003)

0

1

2

3

4

5

Capacity Demand Case A Case B

27


for　 Fiber uses

Required CPL

－ Present Situation and Future Tasks－ Necessary Measures

28





VV ConclusionsConclusions

Conclusion 1: Present Situation and Future Tasks

Oversupply of Synthetic FibersOversupply of Synthetic Fibers

Changes in International Trade StructureChanges in International Trade Structure

Raw Materials for Synthetic FibersRaw Materials for Synthetic Fibers

Environmental ProblemsEnvironmental Problems

Expanding of Fiber DemandExpanding of Fiber Demand

29

22 ．． Supply SideSupply Side22 ．． Supply SideSupply Side

33 ．． International TradeInternational Trade33 ．． International TradeInternational Trade

11 ．． Expansion of DemandExpansion of Demand11 ．． Expansion of DemandExpansion of Demand

Conclusion 2 : Necessary Measures

30

31

11 ．． Expansion of DemandExpansion of Demand11 ．． Expansion of DemandExpansion of Demand


Conclusion 2-1: Expansion of Demand

Efforts for Expansion of Consumption in Asia

– Increasing Shares of Chemical Fiber in Existing Markets

– Developing Demand in Non-apparel Applications

32

33

22 ．． Supply SideSupply Side22 ．． Supply SideSupply Side

11 ．． Expansion ofExpansion of DemandDemand11 ．． Expansion ofExpansion of DemandDemand


Conclusion 2-2: Supply Side

Sharing of InformationSharing of Information

Production matched to Actual DemandProduction matched to Actual Demand

– Establishment of Open and More Accurate Establishment of Open and More Accurate Statistical SystemStatistical System

34

Conclusion 2: Necessary Measures

35

2 ． Supply Side2 ． Supply Side

33 ．． International TradeInternational Trade33 ．． International TradeInternational Trade

1 ． Expansion of Demand1 ． Expansion of Demand

Conclusion 2-3: International Trade

Establishment of Free and Fair Trade System

Development of New Markets and Further Expansion of Domestic Demand

36

Establishment of Orderly Trade System

Sharing of ResponsibilitySharing of Responsibility

Sharing of InformationSharing of Information

Sharing of ProsperitySharing of Prosperity

Sharing of 3 Factors:Sharing of 3 Factors:Sharing of 3 Factors:Sharing of 3 Factors:

Conclusions 3: In Closing

37

JCFAJCFA

Hiroto MatsuoHiroto Matsuo

supply demand structure of synthetic fibers

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