sussex group renewable energy matters campaign outline 18 october 20101

8/8/2019 Sussex Group Renewable Energy Matters Campaign Outline 18 October 20101

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Renewable

Energy

MattersCampaignOutline

PRIVILEGEDANDCONFIDENTIAL

18October2010


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PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL

Overview

Anumberofrenewableenergydevelopershavecometogethertoformalosecoalitionofinterests,to

promoterenewable

energy

policy

in

Ontario

and

support

the

agenda

set

as

part

of

the

Green

Energy

and

EconomyActandtheFeedinTariffprogram.

Thiscoalitionwillbejoinedbyothergroups,suchasEnvironmentalDefenceandtheGEAAlliance,aswellas

labour,economicdevelopment,healthandenvironmentalstakeholders,todevelopcommonmessaging,

communicationstools(ie.paidandearnedmedia)andtargetedlocalcampaignsinareaswhereoppositionto

renewablepowerexists.

Thegoalofthiseffortwillbetwofold:

1. HelpsupportanexpeditedreleaseofFITcontracts,includingthoseassociatedwithnewBruce

Miltontransmission

capacity;

and

2. SupportthebroadergovernmentplanforsustainedcontractingforwindandsolarthroughtheFIT

Program,aspartoftheSupplyMixDirectiveandLongTermEnergyPlan.

As

renewable

energy

is

also

anticipated

to

be

a

wedge

issue

in

the

election,

with

the

PCs

supporting

a

move

awayfromrenewables,thiseffortshouldconsolidateindustryandnonindustrystakeholdersinrallying

supportforacontinuedfocusongreenpowerasimportanteconomic,social,andenergypolicyinOntario.

Inthis,itwillbecriticaltoconfuse theissueinthepolitical/public/mediaawayfromjustpriceto include

keyvalueattributessuchasjobs,cleanair,farmincome,etc. Renewablescannotbedefinedbyprice

alone.


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PoliticalandPolicyVolatility

Volatility

has

arises

vis

a

vis

the

amount

of

new

renewables

that

will

come

online;

intermittency

issues;

howdemandmaychange;thepaceofnewTxdevelopment; growinghealth/noiseconcerns(oppositionis

diversifying);andtheoverarchingsupportforrenewableenergygenerationintheleaduptotheOctober

2011provincialelection.

Pricesforcontractedpowerareskyrocketing eventhoughHOEPhasdecreased,GlobalAdjustmenthas

risenexponentially.

Consumersperceptionsthathydrocostsaregoingupduetorenewables

Lackofconsiderableeconomicinvestment(jobs)toyetcomeonline(lotsofannouncementstodate

butfewhaveactuallybeenrealizedyet)

CombinedwithmovetoTOUpricing,thepoliticalvolatilityof2003couldrepeatitself

Governmentlikelytryingtofindabalancebetween:

1. Movingforward

on

the

GEA

agenda,

linked

to

new

jobs

and

coal

fired

closure;

and

2. Succumbingtoconsumerconcernsaroundcosts

LTEPandSupplyMixDirectivewillbeinsightfulonthedirectiongovernmentwilltakeoverthenext12

months,and

positioning

for

the

Opposition.


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WhySomethingNeedstobeDone

Sussex

believes

that

most

likely

outcome

of

the

LTEP

may

be

price

digression

and

supply

ceilingscould(eitherthroughcurtailmentorbycappingthetotalMWsof supply).

ThereisalsotheriskofrestrainedmovementoncontractingFIT applications,bothutilityscale

andsmallerCAEprojects

ThiscouldalsobemanifestedinreducedsupportforTxdevelopment

ReluctancetoaddressloadingissueonTSsforCAEprojects

TAT/DAT

and

ECT

delays

more

than

bottlenecking

the

program;

causing

significant

confidence

issuesinlongtermviabilityofcontracting

SituationexacerbatedbythelackofalignmentbetweenREArequirementsandFITcontract

milestones;slowness andbarrierstoregulatoryapprovalsvisvisMOE,MNR,MTCR,etc.

Perceptionthattheprorenewablessector(industry,ENGOs,etc.)havebeentooquietandneed

tobemobilized.

Thisneedstobeaddressedimmediately.


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WhatHappensNext

LongTermEnergyPlanandSupplyMixDirective

SupplyMixDirectiveandsummaryofLTEPcouldbereleasedasearlyasOctober20th will

commence45daypostingontheEBR althoughthiscouldbepushedtoNovember.

December8th notionaldateforLTEPCabinetapproval

Posting/releaseoftheLTEPbeforetheendoftheyear.

AssumedthatTAT/DATiscurrentlyorwillsoonbeconducted

Postingof

pre

June

4

th

rankingsand

opportunity

to

change

connection

points

Unclearastowhethertherewillbeanyreleaseofnewcontracts atthispoint

ECTtocommenceinlate2010/early2011

BruceMiltonallocationassumedwillbeplaced intheECT;possibletreatmentthrough

IPAprocess

UnclearonnewTxpriorities

Provincemay

or

may

not

move

forward

on

an

expedited

basis.


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GRandPRCampaign

Thereneedstobeafoundationalbase onmessagingandapproachthatsupportsthe

governmenton

coal

fired

replacement

by

outline

the

jobs/investment,

farm

income,

environmentalandhumanhealthbenefitsofrenewables.

Inventorypotentialeconomic/investment/jobsbenefits. Inotherwords,ifwehave1000MW

ofnewwind/solarcontractscomingout,XXmanufacturingfacilitieswillbebuilt,,employing

XX

direct

and

indirect

jobs,

with

XX

person

years

involved

in

the

generation

projects

themselves.

Aggregatednumbersforfarmincomecanalsobeusefulandshould besecuredaspartasbase

messaging.

Governmentalso

has

astrategic

interest

in

where

manufacturing

We

also

need

to

identify

wherethesefacilitiesaregoingtogo(ie.HuronBruce).

ThereareopportunitiestoleverageGEAAlliancemembers,labour,etc.topursuetraditional

andsocialmediachannelstopromoterenewables.

Needto

lead

with

the

economic

and

investment/jobs

benefits

associated

with

renewables.

Thereneedstobearainbowcoalitionofvalidatorsandmessengers.

Thisshouldaugmentexistingindustryefforts,whichareimportantandwellreceived.


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Strategic/Tactical/LogisticalConsiderations

1. Coremessaging Framingaroundjobs/investment,farm

income,andenvironment/humanhealth. Researchneedsto

supportthis,andshouldbecoordinatedwithMEIandOPA.

2. Tactical coalitionbuilding/outreachandallofthesocial

media,adbuy,earnedmedia,etcyoumentioned. Identifythe

bestchannels

to

have

the

greatest

impact.

3. Logistical thisisallabouttiming. Stagingandscopingto

supportagovernmental

agenda

that

addresses

overarching

objectives.


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1. CoreMessaging

Existingpolling

shows

that

jobs

and

investment

are

much

more

important

drivers

than

health/environment. Also,shiftingattitudesinthelinkbetweenpriceescalationand

renewables.

Needtofindthesweetspot wherecleanerenergy,greenjobsandhumanhealthconverge.

Peoplethinkthereisalinkbetweenjobsandgreenenergy,andsupportlevelsforsustainability

arehigh.

Its

also

encouraging

that

people

associate

investment,

period,

with

higher

costs

insteadofthinkinggreenenergyismoreexpensivethanothertypes.

ProspectiveMessaging

Leadwithastronglinkbetweencleanenergyandjobs.

Use

environmental

and

health

benefits

of

clean

energy

as

secondary

messages. Dontbedefensive. Stresspositivesweknowpeopleagreewith.

Linkinvestmentwithcost,allowingabroadeningtoincludeotherkindsofenergy,ratherthan

allowingthecosttobelinkedtorenewables.

Bewaryofmakingpricechartsalongthelinesoftheoilindustryprominent(whilehelpfulfor

governmentaudiences,havetobeverycautiousofhowinformationiscommunicatedtothe

public). Peoplethinkpricesaregoingupbyalot. Renewablesmaybeasmallslice,butpeopleimagine

thetotalpietobebig.

Furtherresearchisalsorequiredpostspikeinbillfury,includingfocusgroupstocolour,wording

andemotiontocrafteffective,targetedmessages.


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2. Tactical

Inordertotalkpastthenoisyactivists andeditorialpositions,thereneedstobeacoordinated

paid,earnedandsocialmediacampaign. Thisshouldbebothreactiveandproactive.

Whilethismayhavestartedoutasanenvironmentalcommunicationsframe;itnolongersurvive

inthatframealone.

Industry

and

the

GEA

Alliance

are

important

messengers

and

motivators

to

their

base

and

one

shouldalwaysstartwithitsbase,butitwontbeenough. IndustryandtheAlliancemustcome

togethertogrownthecoalition,amongstnotonlydevelopersand manufacturers,butalsoother

thirdpartyvalidators:

Unions

Economists Healthcareprofessionals

Electricitysystemexperts

Securityexperts(reliability,stability)

Farmers

First

Nations Industrygroups(includingindirectgroups,suchasChambersofCommerce,retailerswho

benefitfromfarmrenewablesincome,etc.)

andofcourseNGOs

OtherinstitutionsliketheIEA,otherjurisdictions,etc.


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4. Logistical

IftheSupplyMixDirectiveandLTEPcouldbereleasedimminently,sotomustthiseffort.

Acalendar/workplanneedstobecreatedtoalignindustryneeds/announcementswithgovernment

milestones/announcements. Industryandvalidators(GEAAlliance)candesignearnedmediaeventstomagnifythese

announcements,andfillingapstoensureprolongedexposureofmessage.

WeekOne

Solicitandsecureadditionalinformationfromindustryonjobs, investment,timelines,etc.

Securecampaign

coordination

and

define

roles

and

responsibilities

Organizekeystakeholdercontactsforregularcommunicationandrapidresponse

Continuesolicitationofnewpartners

Developpreliminarycoremessagingandidentifyopportunitiesforearnedandpaidmedia

Startconversationwithmediabuyerandcreativeagencyonproduction

Week

Two Organizetwiceweeklycallswithkeystakeholdersonissuesneedingmanagementandcanvassforupcoming

opportunities

FinalizescriptsandFAWs

Preliminarybudgetmediabuys

WeekThree

Continueto

forge

relationships

with

stakeholders,

expanding

the universe

of

messengers

delivering

key

points

Produceads

Workwithpartnersonsocialmediastrategy

Focusoncommsproductsandregularizingcommunicationwithstakeholders

Finalizesocialmediastrategyandagreeonbudget

Continuemediamonitoringandrapidresponse

Pursue

earned

media

opportunities/speakers

bureau Assemblecalendarofupcomingannouncementactivitiestoamplify positivestories


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Budget

Goalis

to

have

$300,000

in

hand

through

contributions

from

developers

and

manufacturers

to

seed

thecampaign(willsupporteffortsthroughtoQ12011)

Estimatedcosts:

Campaigncoordination $12,000/mth

Research(six

groups,

three

men,

three

women)

@

$7,500

each

$45,000

Advertisingdesign(printandonline,contracted) $25,000

Advertisingproductionandtalent(radio) $10,000Toronto

advertisingintheimmediatevicinityofQueensPark,usingbus $50,000

stands,benches,subwaystationsetc.

November January(andbeyond)paidadvertisingintargetedcommunities $100,000

Website $20,000

Onlinestrategydevelopmentanddelivery $7,000

Onlinemediamonitoring(Facebookposts,Twitter,etc.) $1,200/mth

Othercosts TBD

Additional

costs

to

continue

efforts

in

early

2011

through

to

the

October

6

th

election

Eachdeveloperaskedforafinancialcontributionof$15,000$30,000tosupportthiseffort.

Sussextoserveascentralcoordinatorforthiseffort,ensuring transparencyandaccountabilityof

effort. Anonymouscontributionstocampaignpossible.


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NextSteps

WeekofOctober18th gaincommitmentfromleadingdevelopersand

manufacturers

Obtaininformation(aggregatedandnotforattributiontoanyonecommercial

entity)on

total

jobs,

investment

activities

planned

(confirmed

and

aspirational,

dependingoncontracts)overthenext1224months(withtimelines),aswellas

farmincome

Broadenlistofstakeholdersparticipatinginthisprogram

Finalizecostimpactinformation(seeappendixslide)

CoordinateeffortswithCanWEA,CanSIA,andAPPrO,asappropriate

Arrangeweekly

calls

to

coalition

members

to

brief

on

progress

Arrangedailyemailstoupdateonprogramdevelopment,asappropriate


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55UniversityAvenue

Suite600

Toronto,Ontario

(416)9616611

www.sussexstrategy.com

440LaurierAvenueWest

Suite200

Ottawa,Ontario

(613)7822320


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PreliminaryRenewablesPriceImpactAnalysis

In2012thetotalprojectedRPP+GApricetoresidentialratepayersisanticipatedtobeapproximately

$122/MWh,upfromabout$90/MWhin2009.For2012,thetotalrenewablesshare(notcountingOPG

hydro)isprojectedtobeabout7%to8%ofthetotalbill(wind

sussex group renewable energy matters campaign outline 18 october 20101

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