sxsw music 2015: surviving the shift: rethinking music and data
TRANSCRIPT
Time
Place
Data
SURVIVING THE SHIFT:
1
Rethinking MUSIC and DATA
Gigi Johnson, EdD
UCLA Center for Music Innovation
@MusicInnovUCLA
#SurviveMD cc Flickr/Effervescing Elephant
MA“MA” – the space in between the beats
Flickr/IQRemix cc 2.0
WE ARE CREATING FOR A(INTER)CONNECTED WORLD
Source: Facebook
”
“Basically, I equate ‘free’ with the decline of the music business," Morris declared. "Why should anyone pay for anything if they can get it for free? In certain instances, it ’s worth a discussion. But in general, free is death.
Doug Morris, Sony MusicHITS Daily Double, March 11, 2015
THE SHIFT: TRANSACTIONAL TO RELATIONAL
-
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
2012 2013 2014
US Recorded Music Units, 2012-2014 – Nielsen SoundScan
Streams/1500
CDs
Digital Albums
Digital Tracks/10
HALF = VIDEO STREAMING
49,000,000,000 78,600,000,000
57,100,000,000
85,300,000,000
2013 2014
US Music Streams, 2013-2014
<Audio>
<Video>
Source: Nielsen
WE HAVE ARRIVED…AT???
Flickr/jgoge123 cc 2.0
SURVIVE?
THRIVE
WHY THE SHIFT? WHY NOW?
MobileRental models
Cloud economy
Shared economy
Capacities for big data
PAST PIVOT TO A DIGITAL SINGLES WORLD: 1/10 RATIO
•1
0
Source: RIAA figures; Digital Music News
CDs
US MM Units Shipped, 1973-2010
Digital
Singles
LPs
Cassettes
PER PERSON TRANSACTIONAL PEAKED 1999
•1
1
REVENUE: A 3-PART PIE
Source: RIAA
http://riaa.com/media/D1F4E3E8-D3E0-FCEE-BB55-FD8B35BC8785.pdf
US REVENUE: FLAT-ISH, DESPITE SHIFT
Source: RIAA
http://riaa.com/media/D1F4E3E8-D3E0-FCEE-BB55-FD8B35BC8785.pdf
DIGITAL PIE UP BUT SHIFTING
2011: FUTURE OF MUSIC STUDY ON 5,300 ARTISTS
Source: http://money.futureofmusic.org/
N: over 5,300 US-based musicians and composers
VARYING PIES
http://money.futureofmusic.org/jazz-musicians/
2012: MERCH 1-6% REVENUE
2012: 1-10% “BRAND” INCOME
INDIE ROCK FOM 2012
TOURING ARTIST FOM 2012
PERFORMING ARTIST FOM 2012
LIVE = GROWTH
Source: Pollstar
DATA IS NOW DRIVES TIME, PLACE, AND CONNECTION
Flickr/notbrucelee
DIGITAL DRIVERS RECONNECT TIME AND PLACE WITH DATA
Technologies of Connection
Metadata to the artist, album, genre, and more
Recording relationship with AND BETWEEN users
Recording relationship with distribution
Influencing relationships with filters and with other media objects
THE CORE OF THE BIG SHIFT
• CDs
• Merchandise
• Tickets
Buy Stuff
• Ad-based
• Community-based
• Subscription-based
Share Stuff
NOT JUST MUSIC
OLD FLOWS OF FAN-DOM
Potential
Fans
Existing Music
Experience
Discovery & Awareness
Engagement
RadioMTV
FriendsConcert & CD
Marketing
Purchase
NEW FLOWS OF FAN-DOM
Potential
Fans
“KNOWN”:Existing Music
Experience
Discovery & Awareness
Engagement
RadioSocial Media
FriendsConcert & CD
Marketing
Purchase
Internet RadioYouTube/VEVO
FacebookFriends
SoundcloudSpotify
Listen to a Stream
Share
Cover
BREADTH: FOR KEEPING UP-TO-DATE
MOST, 12-24, KEEPING UP-TO-DATE SOURCES
NEW GATEKEEPERS: DATA LIVES IN OWNED FUNNELS
iTunes
Sharing
Comments
Viewing
Spotify
Sharing
Comments
Viewing
Pandora
Sharing
Comments
Viewing
Sharing
Comments
Viewing
Amazon
Sharing
Comments
Viewing
YouTube
Sharing
Comments
Viewing
SECONDARY VALUE: BEYOND TRANSACTIONS
Engagement Data
Event Design
Brand Relationships
Community Building
DATA DRIVING BACKWARDS
Other Engagement
Performance
Recorded Music
• Synch
• Merch
• Brand Integration
• Appearances
• Location-based and shared experiences
• 26-35%
• Shifting Nature
• 1-6-12%
DATA
WHALES, MINNOWS, DOLPHINS
Source: Billboardbiz.com; Hanny Nada, GGV Capital
DATA FOR THE REST OF US
Big TrendsBig
Data
• My Fans
• My Experiences
• My Relationships
Small Data
Time
Place
Data
THRIVING 2020:
CONNECTING THE DOTS:TIME + PLACE + DATA
DIGITAL “MA”
”
“… as I’ve said many times the future is already here — it’s just not very evenly distributed.
William Gibson, 1999
LIVE EXPERIENCE = ENHANCING CRM, P&L, ETC.
Casino – P&L per person since 1990s
Theme Parks – RFID and wristbands
Retail – iBeacons (low power Bluetooth)
3 RESULTING SHIFTS
Engagement and
Predictive metrics, not
just reportingSuperFans, 80/20,
and what we can
do about it
New Super-
influencers and
folks in between
SMARTPHONE: EVERYWHERE DATA
Flickr/m01229 cc2.0
NEW “FOMO” DIRECTIONS: LIVE• Rarer Live
• Constant Social vs. Constant Together
• Gen Y and Z:
• Increase social media
• Drop in cars
• Increase in festivals -- FOMO
NEW MAGIC TO REGIONAL
DATA: SURPRISE, DELIGHT, AND
BUILD STORIES OUT OF LIVE
ENGAGEMENT
• Data engaged live experiences — iBeacons, LISNR, geofencing, RFID
• Knowing WHERE you listening and understanding the Where Adjacency to purchase for Merch or Brands (later)
Aloompa
DATA ANALYTICS VALUE EVIDENCED 2013-14
“GLOBAL MUSIC DATA ALLIANCE”
ENGAGEMENT AND PREDICTIVE METRICS, NOT JUST REPORTING
NBS
https://www.nextbigsound.com/industryreport/2014
NBS: INSTAGRAM VS TWITTER
https://www.nextbigsound.com/industryreport/2014
NBS: SOUNDCLOUD
PANDORA AMP
Artist Audio Messaging
(in beta)
YOUTUBE CARDS -- “ARTIST PROGRAMS” STAY IN-HOUSE
http://youtubecreator.blogspot.com/2015/03/make-your-videos-even-more-interactive.html
SUPERFAN: 80/20, SMALL DATA, CLOSER TO ME
PATREON: AMANDA PALMER
PATREON: AMANDA PALMER WHALES
BANDCAMP SUBSCRIPTIONS
BANDSINTOWN
TUNEZY – SFX ACQUISITION
DRIP.FM
STAGE.IT
BOILER ROOM: LIVE CONCERTS
COLLABORATIVE SOCIAL ACTION AND INFLUENCE
PLAYLISTERS – “NEW” UNPAID INFLUENCERS
DIGITAL MUSIC ECOSYSTEM
64
CHALLENGES
• Who owns my data and my customer?
• Throttling of connections — FB progressive percentage drop; challenge with models that depend on it
• Measuring from the inside vs outside — “Fans” vs engagement metrics for others; “conversion funnel” as “conversation funnel”
• How do I do this as a working musician? Who are the layers of ecosystems and tools to “onboard” all of this — a real opportunity to make sense of it all…
THE 3 A’S + F – DOMINANT ECONOMIC CONTROLS
Apple
Android/Google
Amazon
ECHONEST EVERY NOISE AT ONCE
EchoNest
Every Noise at Oncehttp://www.furia.com/misc/genremaps/engenremap.html
DIY: WEBHOOK-ING PIECES TOGETHER
MEERKAT
NEXT STEPS?
• Know you own mapping of your data and ecosystem
• Map who else is diong this well
• Think about the Pros & Cons: Work on the bleeding edge vs. Learn from those who are “doing”
DATA + EMOTION + TIME + PLACE = STORY
DIGITAL MA + DATA = COMMUNITY AND VALUE
Gigi Johnson, EdD
UCLA Center for Music Innovation
Slides: http://ucla.musicinnovation.org
@MusicInnovUCLA
#SurviveMD