targeting investments in resource conservation …...estimate service returns lulc base exp ret etk...
TRANSCRIPT
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Targeting Investments in Resource Conservation
with RIOS (Resource Investment Optimization System)
Adrian Vogl ([email protected]) Heather Tallis, Stacie Wolny, Rich Sharp, James Douglass, Doug Denu,
Silvia Benitez, Fernando Veiga, Juan Sebastian Lozano, Paulo Petry, Jorge Leon, Joao Guimaraes, Eddie Game
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Watersheds as Green Infrastructure
How should $10 M be spent?
What activities?
Where?
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The Promise of Water Funds
How should $10 M be spent?
What activities?
Where?
Major opportunity to affect -Land Management -Freshwater Systems
Major opportunity to engage diverse stakeholders as partners with the potential to benefit
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The Problem for Water Funds
How should $10 M be spent?
What activities?
Where?
Need to make good investments!
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Can we do a better job of targeting investments in watershed services by using a science-based
approach with biophysical and social data?
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Deep Dive Sites
Bogotá Water Fund
30% to 600% better estimated
returns than business as usual
Can We Do Better? YES!
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Deep Dive Sites
Bogotá Water Fund
Continental Alignment
Can We Scale Up?
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9
• Use biophysical data with models to target where services are highest
• Scenario analyses of vulnerability or sensitivity to interventions
• Specific to context and available data
Science-based approaches
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• An approach general enough to work everywhere in Latin America
• Easy with available data
• Give standard outputs
Resource Investment Optimization System
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Core Team Advisory Group
Water Fund Investment Prioritization Working Group
Software Development Team
Hydrology Team
RIOS Development
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RIO
S M
OD
ULE
S O
UTP
UTS
Portfolio Builder
•Erosion Control (Hydro, Drinking Water)
•Nitrogen Regulation •Phosphorus Regulation •Groundwater Recharge
•Flood Mitigation •Dry Season Baseflow
•Biodiversity •“Other”
Benefits
Estimator
•Erosion Control •Nitrogen Regulation •Phosphorus Regulation
•Flood Mitigation
25% Erosion Control
32% N Regulation
RIOS Structure
Portfolio Translator
Better than Business as
Usual
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OUTPUT I INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO
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Land Use Changes • Which land use transitions do you want to cause?
•Will some be more effective than others?
•Will some factors be more important than others in determining the impact of each transition?
Activities • Which activities can be used for each land use transition? Do you prefer some over others?
• Where can each activity be done?
• How much does each activity cost?
Diagnostic Screening
Objectives What are the
fund’s objectives?
Priority Area Selection
Budget • What is the budget?
Activities • How much does each activity cost?
• How do you want to spend it?
Investment Portfolio
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OUTPUT II SCENARIOS OF IMPLEMENTATION
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Portfolio Translator Scenarios
Base
+ Activities
No Protection
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OUTPUT III ESTIMATE SERVICE RETURNS
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LULC base Exp Ret etk
Pasture 0.8 0.3 0.95
Forest 0.2 0.9 0.97
Grassland 0.5 0.75 1.0
Urban 0.9 0.01 0.05
Portfolio
Base LULC base - new Exp Ret etk
Pasture 0.8 0.3 0.95
Forest 0.2 0.9 0.97
Urban 0.9 0.01 0.05
Pasture – forest (assisted)
0.5 0.45 0.96
Pasture – paramo (un-assisted)
0.7 0.4 0.95
Biophysical information
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LULC base Exp Ret etk
Pasture 0.8 0.3 0.95
Forest 0.2 0.9 0.97
Grassland 0.5 0.75 1.0
Urban 0.9 0.01 0.05
Portfolio
Base LULC base - new Exp Ret etk
Pasture 0.8 0.3 0.95
Forest 0.2 0.9 0.97
Urban 0.9 0.01 0.05
Pasture – forest (assisted)
0.5 0.45 0.96
Pasture – paramo (un-assisted)
0.7 0.4 0.95
Biophysical information
+ 0.1%
- 15%
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Case study: Cauca Valley, Colombia
• Created in 2009
• Goals: Reduce sediment, maintain base flow
• 9 Watersheds near Cali, Colombia
• Investments to date: US $500,000
• Partners: Sugarcane growers Watershed associations The Nature Conservancy
+ =
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Erosion control
Soil depth
Activity scores
Water yield
Slope
Erosivity
Patch size
Distance from river
Case study: Cauca Valley, Colombia
Score
High
Low
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Fencing
Protection Native revegetation
Tree planting
Silvopastoral systems
Activity
Where do stakeholders prefer activities to be allowed or prevented?
Activities & Transitions Data
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Investment Portfolio
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Recommended restoration activities
Potential improvement in erosion
-
Case study: Cauca Valley, Colombia
Total watershed change: -3400 tons/year = ~ 8% improvement
-.0001 tons
-2800
Score
Activity scores
+ Water fund
budget
= InVEST
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Return on Investment
-
Case study: Cauca Valley, Colombia
Tulua
Total budget (US$ millions) Total budget (US$ millions)
Guabas
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Acknowledgments
Core Team: Heather Tallis, Stacie Wolny, Rich Sharp, James Douglass, Doug Denu,
Silvia Benitez, Fernando Veiga, Juan Sebastian Lozano, Paulo Petry, Jorge Leon, Joao Guimaraes, Eddie Game
Advisory Group
Funding provided by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation