the global energy transformation where do we stand?...aurel stodola lecture – eth – 2017 . the...

Aurel Stodola Lecture – ETH – 2017

The Global Energy TransformationWhere Do We Stand?

Lynn OrrStanford University

Aurel Stodola LectureEidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich

November 14, 2017


The Economic Security/Cost Efficiency Challenge

• Energy costs are imbedded in every aspect of modern economies – typically 6-8% of GDP in the US

• Energy-cost-efficient economies are competitive economies• Energy technologies compete on costs in a commodity price

world

Source: EIA Sept 2017 Monthly Energy Report


The Global Challenge of Access

• Around 1.3 billion people do not have access to electricity now

• Most are in Sub-Saharan Africa and developing Asia

• Meeting those needs with clean electricity should be a high priority


The Energy Security and Resilience Challenge

• An energy system diversified across primary energy resources and conversions to energy services is less vulnerable to disruption, whether manmade or natural

• Import/export security and balance of trade are important elements of national interest

• Cyber security of energy systems is a growing concern

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2017


The Climate/Environment Challenge

• Air quality improvements in the developing world have very large health benefits

• Evidence for human-induced climate change is now overwhelming

• Energy supply and use is a primary driver of air quality and GHG emissions

• Clean energy options can mitigate both problems

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https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/31/world/asia/china-air-pollution-beijing-shanghai-guangzhou.htmlhttp://www.columbia.edu/%7Emhs119/Temperature/

Global emissions from fossil fuel and industry: 36.3 ± 1.8 GtCO2 in 2015, 63% over 1990 Projection for 2016: 36.4 ± 2.3 GtCO2, 0.2% higher than 2015

Estimates for 2014 and 2015 are preliminary. Growth rate is adjusted for the leap year in 2016.Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016

Uncertainty is ±5% for one standard deviation

(IPCC “likely” range)

Emissions from fossil fuel use and industry

http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/meth_reg.htmlhttp://dx.doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-605-2016http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/


What energy resources can we use?

Exergy is energy that can be converted to another useful form: electricity, mechanical work, or heat.

Current Global Exergy Usage Rate ~ 15 TW (0.5 ZJ per year)

Top emitters: fossil fuels and industry (absolute)

The top four emitters in 2015 covered 59% of global emissionsChina (29%), United States (15%), EU28 (10%), India (6%)

Bunker fuels are used for international transport is 3.1% of global emissions.Statistical differences between the global estimates and sum of national totals are 1.2% of global emissions.

Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016


Emissions from coal, oil, gas, cement

Share of global emissions in 2015:coal (41%), oil (34%), gas (19%), cement (6%), flaring (1%, not shown)

Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016



2016 New Power Capacity Worldwide

Two thirds of power capacity additions last year were renewables (note: capacity factors differ widely and are lower for renewables)

Source: IEA Renewable Energy Report 2017

Energy consumption by energy type

Energy consumption by fuel source from 2000 to 2015, with growth rates indicated for the more recent period of 2010 to 2015

Source: BP 2016; Jackson et al 2015; Global Carbon Budget 2016

http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/energy-economics/statistical-review-2016/bp-statistical-review-of-world-energy-2016-full-report.pdfhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2892http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/


What’s Next? A Continuing Clean Energy Transition

• Improve energy efficiency everywhere

• Generate electricity with low-carbon technologies (wind, solar, nuclear, geothermal, hydro, …)

• Improve the grid to accommodate intermittency, bolster resilience

• Electrify energy services (transportation, heat pumps, …)

• Replace coal with natural gas, and/or deploy carbon capture and storage for either

• Develop new technologies (R&D)


Efficiency of Building Systems and Technologies


Building Efficiency

• Buildings account for more than 75% of all electricity (40% of all energy) used in U.S.

• EE technology can reduce this by 20-35%, saving up to 13 Quads

• Efficiency is the first step; lessens the need for generation capacity

• Buildings will become assets on the grid, rather than just a load

Major Research Opportunities• Window innovations • Lighting efficiency• More efficient HVAC &

refrigeration• Highly efficient building designs• Grid integration • Sensors, controls, decision science

Strategies• Reduce cost • Improve performance• Systems approach


The Grid


Graphic Source: International Energy Agency

• Operator-Based Grid Management• Centralized Control• Off-Line Analysis / Limit Setting

• Flexible and Resilient Systems• Sensors and Data Acquisition• Algorithms and Computer Infrastructure• Multi-Level Coordination / Precise Control • Faster-than-Real-Time Analysis

Historical Emerging

The Future Grid differs Radically from the Present Characterized by More Flexibility and Agility: Prevent local disturbances from

spreading, and recover more quickly from storm disruptions


Potential for Much Improved Grid Services

• Many R&D for opportunities for transmission and distribution:– Architecture (microgrids)– New (and cheaper) sensors

for• Voltage, freq., phase angle• Current, real, reactive power

– Active controls of power flow– Solid state transformers

• Improved communications, data analysis, fast state estimation, automatic controls

• Integration of distributed generation, intermittent renewables

• Cybersecurity


Systems of Systems

• Increased interconnection of systems: opportunities for balancing, challenges for communications, fast system models, automatic controls

• Issues: markets, valuation of services, privacy, security


Integration of Intermittent Renewables


Energy Storage

Credit: Sandia Laboratory

Energy Storage Technology Options


Clean Electric Power


Natural gas for electric power

• There is considerable NG single-cycle GT installed capacity (35% efficiency, 47.9% CO2 reduction)

22

• Replacing an old coal-fired power plant with a combined cycle gas turbine reduces emissions a lot (57% C/kWh in fuel, 32→60% power plant efficiency = 69.6% reduction/kWh)


Natural Gas Production from Shales

• Technology to drill long-reach horizontal wells at manageable cost• Hydraulic fracturing to create flow paths in low perm shales• Realization that shales are not just source rocks and seals but

potential productive reservoirs

https://www.pioga.org/education/hydraulic-fracturing-processhttp://www.geologypage.com/2016/05/hydraulic-fracturing.html

https://www.pioga.org/education/hydraulic-fracturing-processhttp://www.geologypage.com/2016/05/hydraulic-fracturing.html

Global Unconventional Gas

9,162

8,197

2,015

1,2785,767

5,560

1,220

6,669

2,556

1,050

795

~11,000 TCF – Technically Recoverable Unconventional Gas

~16,000 TCF* – Technically Recoverable Conventional Gas

~ 170 Years at Current Consumption Levels* EIA AEO 2011

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Wind Generation• Wind has become a mainstream power source in the

U.S.‒ 5.5% of U. S. electricity in 2016‒ 77,000 jobs in 2015

• Ability to Increase U. S. wind capacity faces technical, market and perception challenges

‒ Wind plant optimization ‒ Accessing best wind resources‒ Transmission capacity

Wind Plant Optimization

Offshore Wind Demonstration

Successfully addressing these challenges can lead to wind providing

35% of U.S. electricity by 2050


Wind Research Opportunities• Develop new, predictive high-fidelity modeling (HFM) capability to study

fundamental flow physics of whole wind plants

• HPC simulations will enable new understanding of turbine-turbine & complex-terrain interactions and help reduce the cost of wind energy

numerical weather

prediction(WRF)

computational fluid dynamics(OpenFOAM)

Structure & control

system(FAST)

Future Challenges: blade-resolved meshes, complex terrain, transition to exascale systems

• Simulations require coupling multi-physics across multi-scales

• Build upon initial first-generation wind plant simulator SOWFA

SOWFA


Solar generation has evolved rapidly

• PV Installed costs

− Reduced over 50% in 4 years

− Module costs significantly below $1/Watt

− 300,000 jobs in 2015

• CSP offers storage capabilities

• Technology Challenges

− Reduce installed costs by addressing “soft costs”

− Increase efficiencies and reliability with improved or new technology and manufacturing

− High penetration requires advances in grid integration

Overarching Strategies• “Soft cost” improvements• Technology advances• Systems approach

Perovskite efficiencies have increased to > 20% in only 2 years

from Liu and Kelly. Nat. Phot. 2013


IEA Estimates of Future Wind and Solar Costs

Source: IEA Renewable Energy Report 2017

2017 Symposium | Advancing Energy Research - GCEP & Beyond

First all-carbon solar cell – for high performance at lower cost. Bao

Stretchable and Flexible Transparent Electrodes. Bao

Photonic design principles for ultrahigh-efficiency photovoltaic. Brongersma, Atwater, Peumans

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Photovoltaics – Many Avenues to ExploreNew perovskite-perovskite tandem solar cell design could outperform commercial technology. McGehee

Ordered Bulk Heterojunction Solar CellsMcGehee

Source: SM Benson, Stanford Global Climate and Energy Project


Other Renewables Support Diversified Energy Supplies

• Enhanced Geothermal – Could provide over 500 GW of base load

renewable power • Hydro and Pumped Hydro

– Used to balance grid as intermittent renewables increase

• Marine and Hydro Kinetic (MHK) – Harnesses energy from waves, tides, and river

and ocean currents – Significant long-term potential - over half of

U.S. population within 50 miles of coastlines


A Caution: Capacity Factors and Dispatch Vary Widely


Nuclear Power

• 19% of current US electric power generation, 60% of non-GHG power, baseload with 89% capacity factor

• Reactor R&D options: – Small modular reactors (passive safety,

lower cost?)– High temperature, gas cooled reactors

(more efficient power generation, process heat?)

– Fast spectrum reactors (reduced waste) • More R&D opportunities in advanced

fuels, high performance materials for rad environments

• Challenges: waste storage, siting, licensing and construction costs


Carbon Capture and Storage

• Capture with solvents demonstrated at scale

• 2nd generation demos (1 MW) testing adv solvents, sorbents, membranes

• Goal: reduce energy penalties and costs of components, materials, chemistries, separations, integrated plant designs

• Research: phase change separations, electrochemical capture, chemical looping

• Storage in a variety of subsurface geologic settings

• Demonstrate for post-combustion retrofits, natural gas generation

Southern Company Kemper Project, IGCC + CC + EORCredit: Mississippi Power

Project switched from lignite to natural gas, June 2017, due to start-up delays and cost-overruns


What Happens to Supercritical CO2 in the Subsurface?

a) Homogeneous

b) Short Correlation Length

c) Long Correlation Length

d) Layered Aquifer

(i) (ii) (iii)

0 Sg 0.8 0 Sg 0.8 0 Sgt 0.36

a) Homogeneous

b) Short Correlation Length

c) Long Correlation Length

d) Layered Aquifer

(i)

(ii)

(iii)

0 Sg 0.8 0 Sg 0.8 0 Sgt 0.36


Net Power Supercritical CO2 Power Plant


Supercritical CO2 – Brayton Cycle

1 meter sCO2 (300 MWe)(Brayton Cycle: > 40% efficient )

20 meter Steam Turbine (300 MWe)(Rankine Cycle: ~33% efficient)

5-stage Dual Turbine 3-stage Single Turbine


Clean Transportation and Vehicle Systems


Clean Transportation and Vehicle System Technologies

• Combustion efficiency• Co-optimization of fuels and engines• Lightweighting• Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs)• Fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs)• Other modes (e.g., air, rail, and marine) • Connected and automated vehicles • Transportation systems

Q U A D R E N N I A L T E C H N O L O G Y R E I E W


Battery and Hybrid Electric Vehicles

• As battery costs have declined, more battery and hybrid electric vehicles have appeared on the market

• Many auto manufacturers have announced new vehicles to be on the market by 2023

• EVs and hybrids, 1% of auto sales in 2016 (BNEF)

• Britain, France to prohibit IC engines after 2040, China planning deadline

Chevy Volt

Chevy Bolt


Light-weighting of materials for fuel savings. Dauskardt

Silicon Nanowires lead to lithium battery anodes with high-performance and improved cycling. Cui

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Transportation – Many Avenues to Explore

Si particles and self-healing polymers give high capacity and stable cycling at low-cost. Bao, Cui

Wireless power transfer in the presence of metallic plates. Fan

High-efficiency engines at extreme states and sootless diesel. Edwards2005-2016.

Compression Ratio



Highly active and stable IrOx/SrIrO3 catalyst performs catalysts for oxygen evolution.Jaramillo

Advances in solar water splitting with corrosion resistant silicon photo-anodes. McIntyre, Chidsey

Renewable Fuel Synthesis – Many Avenues to Explore

42

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

New insights into the electrochemical reduction of carbon dioxide on metallic copper surfaces. Jaramillo

Uncovered new structure-activity relationships for metal nanoparticles. Kanan

Artificial photosynthesis. Lewis, Atwater


Z. Seh, J. Kibsgaard, C.F. Dickens, I. Chorkendorff, J.K. Nørskov, T. F. Jaramillo, Science, 355 6321 (2017)


Possible Game-Changers – Many Avenues to Explore

Prussian Blue open-framework crystal structure for cathodes for safe, fast, inexpensive, long-cycle life aqueous electrolyte battery. Cui

Ultra-fast recharging Aluminum-ion, graphite battery. Dai

Photo-enhanced Thermionic Emission, PETE.Melosh

Radiative cooling to deep sub-freezing temperatures through a 24-h day–night cycle. Fan

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Source: SM Benson, Stanford GCEP


Lynn’s Wish List

• Efficient, low-cost electrochemical CO2 reduction – to CO, at least, better to C-C bonds: goal is a drop-in liquid fuel

• Biofuels that store soil carbon (and are cost competitive)• More efficient water purification • Higher energy density, durable, safe batteries• Better sensors for CH4 fugitive emission detection• High frequency, high voltage power electronics (smaller,

cheaper transformers)• Active controls of electric power flow• Low cost, low GHG, efficient AC• Solar PV at 2 cents/kWh (to allow another energy conversion)• A price on carbon!


Conclusions

• A clean energy transformation is well underway• Considerable progress has been made in energy technologies

and deployment, but much more remains to be done• A wide-ranging opportunity space exists for improvements to

energy technologies and systems• A portfolio approach is required: fully stocked across primary

energy resources, conversion technologies, systems, and time scales for application, with efficiency everywhere

• There is a very large international market for clean energy to be captured by technology innovation

• We can do this!

QUADRENNIAL TECHNOLOGY REVIEW AN ASSESSMENT OF ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES AND RESEARCH OPPORTUNITIES

Q T Rwww.energy.gov/QTR

Slide Number 1The Economic Security/Cost Efficiency ChallengeThe Global Challenge of AccessThe Energy Security and Resilience ChallengeThe Climate/Environment ChallengeEmissions from fossil fuel use and industrySlide Number 7Top emitters: fossil fuels and industry (absolute)Emissions from coal, oil, gas, cement2016 New Power Capacity WorldwideEnergy consumption by energy typeWhat’s Next? A Continuing Clean Energy TransitionEfficiency of Building Systems and TechnologiesBuilding EfficiencySlide Number 15The Future Grid differs Radically from the Present Potential for Much Improved Grid ServicesSystems of SystemsIntegration of Intermittent RenewablesEnergy StorageClean Electric PowerNatural gas for electric powerNatural Gas Production from ShalesGlobal Unconventional Gas Slide Number 25Wind Research Opportunities Solar generation has evolved rapidlySlide Number 28IEA Estimates of Future Wind and Solar CostsSlide Number 30Other Renewables Support Diversified Energy SuppliesA Caution: Capacity Factors and Dispatch Vary WidelyNuclear PowerCarbon Capture and StorageWhat Happens to Supercritical CO2 in the Subsurface?Net Power Supercritical CO2 Power PlantSupercritical CO2 – Brayton CycleClean Transportation and Vehicle SystemsClean Transportation and Vehicle System TechnologiesBattery and Hybrid Electric VehiclesSlide Number 41Renewable Fuel Synthesis – Many Avenues to ExploreSlide Number 43Possible Game-Changers – Many Avenues to ExploreLynn’s Wish ListConclusionsSlide Number 47

the global energy transformation where do we stand?...aurel stodola lecture – eth – 2017 . the...

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