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© OECD/IEA 2016
The Global Power OutlookThe Global Power Outlook
Daniele PoponiETP 2016 Programme ManagerInternational Energy Agency
Daniele PoponiETP 2016 Programme ManagerInternational Energy Agency
GETS 2016New Delhi, 6 November 2016
GETS 2016New Delhi, 6 November 2016
© OECD/IEA 2016
First clear signs of decoupling of CO2 emissions and GDP Global energy-related CO2 emissions flattened in 2015 after
their slowest historical increase in 2014, despite growing GDP Renewable power capacity at record high with over 150 GW
installed in 2015
COP21 provided a historic push for clean energy Start of a new era of collaboration: Country-based approaches
preferred to top-down regulation New goals put forward – going beyond what everyone already
considered challenging when our first ETP was released in 2006
Growing recognition that greater innovation is essential to meet ambitious climate goals
Context Context
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Other renewable power
Buildings
Nuclear
Transport
Appliances and lighting Energy storage
Industry
Biofuels Carbon capture and storage
More efficient coal-fired power
Electric vehicles Solar PV and onshore wind
Technology Status today against 2DS targets
●Not on track ●Accelerated improvement needed ●On track
Clean energy deployment is still overall behind what is required to meet the 2°C goal, but recent progress on electric vehicles, solar PV and wind is promising
Progress in clean energy needs to accelerate
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RE Policies must keep up the good workRE Policies must keep up the good work
Select renewable power capacity additions (2014-2015)
Net additions to grid-connected renewable capacity grew at their fastest pace for the 2nd year in a row, with 150 gigawatts
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Wind Solar PV Wind Solar PV Wind Solar PVChina OECD RoW
GW
2014 2015 (estimated)
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The carbon intensity of the global economy can be cut by two-thirds through a diversified energy technology mix
Contribution of technology area to global cumulative CO2 reductions
The scale of the challengeThe scale of the challenge
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Contribution by sector to global cumulative CO2 reductions
Actions need to be pursued by stakeholders in all sectors to achieve an optimal transition strategy.
The momentum from COP21 needs to be accelerated to reach 2DS ambitionsThe momentum from COP21 needs to be accelerated to reach 2DS ambitions
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Decarbonising electricityDecarbonising electricity
Renewables combined provide 45% of the cumulative CO2 reductions in the power sector to reach the 2DS.
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5
10
15
20
25
2013 2020 2030 2040 2050
GtC
O2
6DS
2DS
Cumulative CO2 reductions
Contribution of technology area to power sector to global cumulative CO2 reductions
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Decarbonising global electricity supply in the 2DSDecarbonising global electricity supply in the 2DS
Generation today: Fossil fuels: 68% Renewables: 22%
Generation 2DS 2050: Renewables: 67% Fossil fuels: 17%
Global electricity generation mix in the 2DS, 2013-2050
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Benefits from saving electricityBenefits from saving electricity
Electricity savings in the end-use sectors not only reduce electricity bills for consumers, but also provide investment savings in the power
sector.
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Scaling-up low-carbon deploymentScaling-up low-carbon deployment
Deployment rates of low-carbon technologies have to be drastically increased compared to current rates.
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
Solar PV
Wind onshore
Hydro
STE
Coal with CCS
Biomass
Nuclear
Gas with CCS
Wind offshore
Ocean
Geothermal
GW/year
2010-14 2015-25 2026-35 2036-50
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India Power sector scenarios in the 2DS
India Power sector scenarios in the 2DS
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Final electricity demand by sector in India in the 2DS, 2013-2050
India: meeting exponential growth in electricity demandIndia: meeting exponential growth in electricity demand
In the 2DS, electricity demand in India reaches 4,000 TWh by 2050
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Towards significant diversification of the Indian power mixTowards significant diversification of the Indian power mix
The path followed by the power sector is expected to demonstrate the ambition of India’s low-carbon strategy
Installed capacity in the 4DS and 2DS scenarios
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Decarbonising Indian electricity supply in the 2DSDecarbonising Indian electricity supply in the 2DS
In the 2DS, renewables reach 84% of the Indiangeneration mix by 2050
Indian electricity generation mix in the 2DS, 2013-2050
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Cities’ contribution to decarbonizing power generation in IndiaCities’ contribution to decarbonizing power generation in India
Technical potentials from selected urban supply sources and electricity demand in India in 2050
Growing cities and metropolitan areas could rely on local renewable energy supply - with smart grids enabling the transition
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Thank youThank you