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1

The Glycol and Derivatives Report

December 13, 2015 Price Assessments

In This Issue US MEG contract and

spot prices remain unchanged as of December 1st

On January 1st MEGlobal

will lower its ACP

$70/mt to $720/mt, SABIC announced $40/mt drop to $730/mt and Shell an $80/mt decrease to $700/mt

Spot TEG offers more prevalent under 70

cts/lb FOB USG

Spot MEG CFR China dips into the mid $500/mt range

Spot PGI offers up 2 cts/lb on average as some sellers rollover

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Short Term Price Forecast Read about our contract, barge and terminal price forecasts for the next

three months

Past Reports Bring up past reports for the prior year and YTD

Price History Download YTD and prior year price data for quotes

listed in this table

Global Production Examine global capacities by region

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MEG Contract/Posted

Net EGF 28.00 - 30.00 28.00 - 30.00 28.00 - 31.50

Net EGI 28.00 - 29.50 28.00 - 29.50 28.00 - 30.50

Net EGAF 27.00 - 28.00 27.00 - 28.00 27.00 - 28.50

MEGlobal NAB

MEG Spot

Export FOB USG 30.00 - 32.00 31.50 - 33.00 30.00 - 31.00

Barge FOB USG 31.00 - 32.00 31.50 - 33.00 30.00 - 32.00

Rail FOB USG 31.00 - 32.00 31.50 - 33.00 30.00 - 33.00

Truck FOB USG 31.00 - 34.00 32.00 - 34.00 31.00 - 33.00

Truck FOB USEC 32.00 - 36.00 33.00 - 36.00 33.00 - 36.00

Truck FOB USMW 34.00 - 39.00 35.00 - 39.00 35.00 - 39.00

Higher Glycols Spot FOB USG

DEG Barge 33.00 - 35.00 32.00 - 33.00 31.00 - 32.00

DEG Truck 36.00 - 38.00 34.00 - 36.00 32.00 - 34.00

TEG Truck 66.00 - 70.00 70.00 - 76.00 80.00 - 85.00

MPG

Contract Net PGI FOB USG 60.00 - 70.00 60.00 - 70.00 60.00 - 70.00

Contract Net PGUSP FOB USG 77.00 - 83.00 77.00 - 83.00 77.00 - 83.00

PGI Truck FOB USG 50.00 - 56.00 50.00 - 56.00 52.00 - 58.00

PGI Truck FOB USEC 56.00 - 62.00 56.00 - 62.00 56.00 - 62.00

PGI Truck FOB USMW 52.00 - 58.00 52.00 - 58.00 54.00 - 58.00

PGUSP Truck FOB USG 72.00 - 80.00 72.00 - 80.00 72.00 - 80.00

PGUSP Truck FOB USEC 75.00 - 80.00 75.00 - 80.00 75.00 - 80.00

PGUSP Truck FOB USMW 79.00 - 85.00 79.00 - 85.00 79.00 - 85.00

Contract

Net EGAF 1150 - 1275 1150 - 1275 1160 - 1285

Spot

EGAF FOB E. Can 1120 - 1200 1120 - 1200 1120 - 1200

EGI FOB E. Can 1180 - 1280 1180 - 1280 1180 - 1280

EGAF/EGI FOB W. Can 1250 - 1325 1250 - 1325 1250 - 1325

MEG Contract

ACP Average (all major suppliers)

MEGlobal ACP

SABIC ACP

Spot

MEG CFR CMP 540 - 545 565 - 570 660 - 670

MEG CFR N.E. Asia 535 - 540 555 - 560 655 - 665

MEG USG CMP Netback 465 - 470 490 - 495 586 - 596

MEG USG NE Asia Netback 471 - 476 491 - 496 593 - 603

DEG CFR CMP 500 - 505 500 - 505 530 - 540

Contract MEG NWE 820 - 820 825 - 825 825 - 825

Spot MEG CIF NWE T2 740 - 750 850 - 900 700 - 720

Spot MEG FD NWE 800 - 810 925 - 960 780 - 800

Spot DEG CIF NWE T2 700 - 710 710 - 720 710 - 720

Canada (CAN$/MT)

Asia (US$/MT)

780 860

November13-Dec

40.00

880 880

770 840 860

US (FOB in cts/lb)

October

Europe (Euro/MT)

40.00 42.00

870

790

Prices in italics are not settled

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2

US MEG Contract

Although several sellers announced another round

of minor increases for December last week many

consumers claimed their costs remained unchanged

as compared to November. One influential producer

did not adjust prices higher on December 1st and the

market appeared to be on the cusp of becoming

more balanced from a supply standpoint which in

turn undermined the efforts of those seeking to

move up this month. Demand is sluggish and crude

oil prices also slid towards new record lows.

Unseasonably warm weather across key consuming

regions of the Midwest and Northeast continue to

impact antifreeze sales while industrial end use

among oil service companies is also predictably

soft. PET related demand is still aided somewhat by

import curtailments, although that market will

remain sluggish until the Spring and prices

reportedly dropped a penny last month. Upstream

spot ethylene prices remain depressed despite

firming slightly last week with spot delivered USG

pipeline assessed near 18.25/lb and the November contract benchmark rising 0.25 ct/lb to 28.50 cts/lb (last November the marker

was 45.50 cts/lb). MEGlobal initially attempted to raise its US MEG benchmark 1 ct/lb to 41 cts/lb on December 1st after moving

down 2 cts/lb last month. Indorama subsequently notified customers that it didn’t intend to adjust its posted price of 46 cts/lb this

month after moving its marker down 2 cts/lb on November 1st. Other producers including Huntsman, Equistar and Shell also

carried prices forward this month after most confirmed moving down 2 cts/lb last month. Asian benchmarks adjusted down the

equivalent of another 4 or 5 cts/lb this month and spot prices in the region remain relatively low prompting ongoing conjecture

about additional price corrections within the Americas once availability improves. For a list of current and prior MEG nominations

and related benchmarks current subscribers can click here to access the client website with your user name and password.

Regional availability improved somewhat last week, although a number of producers continue to have problems in the USG which

is helping to keep supply in check. Earlier this month Formosa reportedly brought down its 300,000 mt/yr plant at Point Comfort

Texas for a 10 to 15 day outage due to a compressor problem. Customers report Indorama continues to operate at a reduced rate in

Clear Lake ahead of an expected catalyst change in January. At this time the company isn’t reportedly allocating, although some

observers believe that remains a possibility if demand picks up. Sources claim the Pemex plant in Morelos was back up last week

after roughly a month long delay. Equistar appears in better shape as of last week amid reports from customers that it is supplying

them at 100% of their 9 month sales average after initially announcing 55% allocation measures on October 30th

due to a

mechanical failure. Some customers claim the company informed them it was almost finished making repairs. On November 17th

Equistar issued notice of revisions that maintained MEG Fiber Grade at 55%, however it raised its MEG Antifreeze Grade and

Industrial Grade to 80%. At Port Neches a shot electrical outage led to supply curtailments last month, although customers claim

production was restored and there are no sales restrictions as of last week.

Spot prices remain largely unchanged this month, although steep corrections in other major centers of trade and improving

availability within the Americas could usher in another round of corrections according to many observers. Downstream demand

remains sluggish, crude prices are at historic lows and there is little to provide support moving forward aside from one or two

lingering production issues that have been accounted for. Although any new downtime could help stabilize the market, at this

point it appears likely spot prices could erode this month preceding another drop in contract postings during Q1. To see the last

price forecast please log into the client website by clicking here.

0

400

800

1200

1600

US

$/M

T

MEG Contract Price Comparisons

MEG USG Cost US

Asia Europe

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3

US MEG Large Volume Spot

Domestic barge demand faded as regional availability

appeared to improve in the last week, although traders

claim a few potential buyers continue to make inquiries

and price ideas continue to match or exceed those in

smaller volume markets (suggesting to some they remain

inflated). Last month several sources reported at least one

domestic producer bought a domestic barge for 32.50

cts/lb FOB USG. One trader last week claimed it would

sell a barge for 33 cts/lb FOB. Others confirmed with few

sources for large spot quantities availability deals could

still occur above the 30 cts/lb mark. Several traders

suggest prices will likely settle back below 30 cts/lb as

availability continues to improve in the coming weeks (or

remain supported if that doesn’t happen). Although there

remains some interest among buyers in Latin America

covering for the extended Pemex downtime, as of last

week netbacks to other major centers of trade are still

very low. Estimated breakeven netbacks to Asia dipped

towards 20 cts/lb FOB USG (while costs from the region CIF USG dipped under 30 cts/lb). Breakeven netbacks to Europe dipped

back to 31 or 31.50 cts/lb.

MEG USG to CMP Netback 465 - 470 490 - 495 586 - 596

MEG USG to NE Asia Netback 471 - 476 491 - 496 593 - 603

MEG USG to NWE T2 Netback 709 - 720 824 - 876 666 - 686

DEG USG to CMP Netback 425 - 430 425 - 430 456 - 466

DEG USG to NWE T2 Netback 668 - 678 678 - 688 678 - 688

USG to N.E. Asia (US$/MT)

USG to China MP (US$/MT)

USG to N.W. Europe (US$/MT)

N.W. Europe to USG (US$/MT)

USEC MEG Upcharge (cts/lb)

USWC MEG Upcharge (cts/lb)

3-5KMT exports, barge used for upcharge

Estimated Export Netbacks

13-Dec November October

Freight Assessments64 64 62

75 75 74

60 60 62

42 42 44

4 4 4

5 5 5

20

30

40

50

60

US

cts

/lb

EGAF Spot v. Contract Price

Spot Barge FOB USG USG Contract




4

US MEG Small Volume Spot

Small volume spot offers are largely unchanged this

month according to most sellers, although initially

several marketers raised prices as much as a penny

after MEGlobal nominated the same for December

1st. Last month spot truck and railcar prices moved 3

to 4 cts/lb lower on average, although some of the

more competitive marketers implemented more

moderate decreases of 2 cts/lb following more

cohesive 3 cts/lb drops in September. Truck and

railcar availability is seemingly healthy with demand

among many small volume consumers muted due to

unseasonably warm weather across parts of the

Midwest and Northeast in particular in the last few

weeks. In some states such as Texas marketers are

increasingly eager to move volume in order to bring

down inventories and minimize their tax burden.

Regional prices remain steady, although many observers expect softening to occur as availability improves during e course of the

next few weeks. Spot truck offers in the US Gulf attributed to some sellers initially moved a penny higher at the start of the month,

although competition among suppliers quickly led to rescissions that effectively left most prices unchanged this month. Small

volume availability remains healthy and downstream demand is trailing forecasts. Last week one marketer some distributors

claimed initially moved up a penny to new lows near 32 cts/lb was reported back down to 31 cts/lb FOB USG at the low end of its

selling range. Another marketer was reported holding its truck prices steady after the first of the month near 31 cts/lb FOB East

Texas. Some claim limited quantities of non-virgin streams are available below the 30 cts/lb mark FOB while others report some

virgin sales to distribution at 32 or 33 cts/lb. Spot truck offers to consumers are also assessed flat with lows reported near 33 cts/lb

and mainstream prices at 34 or 35 cts/lb FOB USG. Spot railcar availability remains somewhat limited according to traders that

claim outages in Texas and Mexico led to a steady stream of spot inquiries in the last month. Spot railcar offers are noted at parity

or in some cases above prevailing trucks offers. Distributors and competitive end users in the Midwest also report their costs

unchanged this month despite some initial attempts to move up a penny. At the low end of the selling range distributor prices are

reported in the mid 30 cts/lb range FOB Chicago with some producer offers noted near 34 cts/lb. By comparison there are still

reports of delivered railcars from Canada moving into the region in the low 30 cts/lb range. More mainstream offers to local

resellers are noted at 35 or 36 cts/lb with spot truck

offers to consumers noted between 38 and 40 cts/lb

FOB Chicago. Similarly distributors and resellers

in the Northeast also report spot prices unchanged

through last week and downstream demand

seasonally thin. Competitive end users and

distributors report spot truck costs steady with

lows near 33 cts/lb FOB USEC and mainstream

offers at 34 or 35 cts/lb in some instances while

offers to consumers remain between 34 and 37

cts/lb according to some resellers. Spot truck

prices in the Southeast changed little as well this

month according to local marketers with

competitive truck offers reported near or just above

30 cts/lb FOB Wilmington and more mainstream

prices still between 32 and 34 cts/lb. Spot truck

offers to some consumers are reported at 35 or 36

cts/lb FOB.

30

40

50

60

70

US

cts

/lb

EGAF/EGI Truck and Railcar Prices

FOB USG FOB USEC FOB USMW

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

US

cts

/lb

EGAF USG Terminal v Spot Barge




5

North American MEG Price Averages

* Average of terminal prices and change from previous month indicated by directional arrow unless otherwise listed. Spot flow indicates possible margin for spot movements from the USG to China (estimated USG netback minus the spot export price FOB USG- the smaller the number the less likelihood of exports).

US DEG

Production constraints within the Americas continue to

limit availability in the near term and support regional

prices, although supply should start to improve in the

coming weeks. Many end users and distributors

confirm costs moving up 2 cts/lb this month in line

with most producer nominations following a round of

minor concessions in November, although not

everyone’s prices moved up. MEGlobal raised its US

benchmark 2 cts/lb to 41 cts/lb on December 1st after

moving down a penny last month. Indorama

subsequently confirmed adjusting its posted price up 3

cts/lb to 52 cts/lb after going down a penny in

November. Lyondell and Huntsman also reportedly

pushed through 2 cts/lb increases, although customers

claim Shell Chemicals carried prices forward this

month. For a complete list of current and prior

nominations and related benchmarks current

subscribers can click here to access the client website

with your user name and password.

Demand among large end users remains thin and impacted by seasonally slow and recovering housing and construction markets,

while small volume demand among industrial end users is also curtailed somewhat according to distributors in that sector.

However, regional availability is still constrained somewhat due to a string of planned and unplanned outages. In Clear Lake

Indorama is expected to limp along at a reduced rate before possibly going down for a catalyst change next month. In Mexico the

C$ 1160/mt

34 cts/lb 36.5 cts/lb

32.5 cts/lb

Barges FOB USG

31.5 cts/lb

Spot Trend

$ -216

30

50

70

90

110

130

US

cts

/lb

DEG/TEG Spot Prices

DEG Barge FOB USG

TEG Trucks FOB USG

DEG Trucks FOB USG





6

Pemex Morelos plant was reported back up following an extended turnaround. Despite some ongoing issues overall availability

appeared to improve somewhat in the last week. Huntsman is reportedly back to normal following a short electrical outage. At

Bayport Lyondell Equistar is also reportedly operating at a higher rate after raising its allocation measures to 100% (from 90% last

month and 70% on October 30th

).

Large volume spot activity is thin with availability still constrained by recent outages and rate cuts, although traders continue to

report producers and others in the US and Mexico are still seeking volume to cover for shortfalls. Last week many reported

domestic barge prices are still somewhat notional absent any confirmation of recent deals done, although some potential sellers

claimed offers would match or surpass those of smaller volume spot assessments between 38 and 39 cts/lb. Export oriented interest

to Latin America is still pronounced due to the extended downtime in Mexico, although there is little interest in moving volume

top other major centers of trade. Estimated breakeven netbacks to Asia dipped to new lows below 20 cts/lb in the last two weeks

while netbacks to Europe are assessed closer to 29 cts/lb FOB USG. By contrast large volumes from Asia could land in the USG

under 30 cts/lb and traders claim several parcels were fixed in the last few weeks, destined primarily for US producers seeking to

cover for shortfalls (there are only a few end users able to take in large spot volumes in the US).

US spot truck and railcar prices adjusted 2 cts/lb higher this month according to distributors and resellers. Demand among many

small end users remains seasonally slow with industrial related sales particularly thin in some sectors. Truck availability is healthy,

although some traders claim railcars remain limited in the USG. Competitive marketers reportedly moved low end truck offers to

distributors from 35 or 36 cts/lb to 36 or 37 cts/lb FOB Houston, although a few active sellers adjusted the bottom of their range to

38 cts/lb on December 1st. Single truck offers to some consumers were noted at 39 or 40 cts/lb FOB.

Activity in Asia is steady but unpronounced and spot prices are range bound to some degree with deals in the last two weeks noted

within a band of roughly $10/mt. Regional availability is healthy despite intermittent localized outages. Although Shell is down in

Singapore several plants in Northeast Asia restarted in the last week. After bringing down its cracker on December 1st Shell

Chemicals shutdown its MEG/DEG units in Palau Bukom Singapore and declared force majeure on DEG effective December 4th

.

Demand among large end users is still tepid and impacted by the slow conditions downstream. Last week spot prices CFR CMP

for delivery in late December were reported near $495/mt on Monday, but by midweek news of production problems sent offers

above $500/mt with deals noted between $500/mt and $505/mt (two weeks ago spot was done at $502/mt). Domestic activity in

China improved last week on renewed interest from downstream industries; however prices remain soft because of ample supply.

In the East locals noted competitive offers firmed slightly to near CNY 3,900/mt. In Southern markets conditions remain weak

and prices were assessed near CNY 3,900/mt ex-tank.

Availability in Europe improved as the BASF and Ineos plants came back up, although prices remained relatively stable with

demand among downstream end users seasonally slow in the last few weeks. Last week large volume spot CIF Antwerp T2 was

assessed by traders between Euro 700/mt and Euro 710/mt while smaller quantities FCA NWE were reported closer to Euro

800/mt, more or less unchanged from two weeks prior.

US TEG

Demand within the Americas remains thin and sales continue to trail forecasts with gas service companies reporting business in

some parts of the country down as much as 40%. US posted prices are still high relative to prevailing spot assessments, although

most producers continue to make off-list concessions to remain competitive. As previously noted the last round of 10 cts/lb

increases announced by most producers in September was rescinded. Regional availability within the Americas is healthy despite a

string of unplanned outages and rate cuts in the USG and Mexico, although traders report fewer import parcels arriving. Last week

small volume spot prices continued to erode according to distributors. High quality virgin domestically produced TEG was

reported offered to distributors in the 66 to 68 cts/lb range with imports nearer 66 cts/lb. several distributors report one domestic

producer offered trucks with high color in the low 60 cts/lb range last week, although quantities were limited and some consumers

claimed they could not use the material given its specifications. A few resellers reported holding starting offers to resellers at 69 or

70 cts/lb and a few claimed single truckloads to consumers remain on offer in the low 70 cts/lb range.




7

Canada MEG

Overall activity levels in Canada are depressed with industrial end use impacted by an economic slowdown and antifreeze sales

stagnating in large part due to relatively mild weather across the country. Many buyers report inventories are high and consumers

are only taking what they need on a just in time basis. Regional availability is still healthy with no reports of logistical constraints

in the East or the West. Although the weaker Canadian dollar offset EGAF price erosion in the last few months to some degree,

many observers think prices will ease in the near future. MEGlobal nominated a minor US 1 ct/lb (CAN 2.5 cts/kg) increase for

December 1st but most sources claim the initiative had little traction and prices on the whole remain stable. This month MEG

contract prices moved marginally lower after adjusting down roughly CAN 6 cts/kg last month but EGAF spot prices remained

relatively stable. MEGlobal adjusted down US 2 cts/lb (CAN 5 cts/kg) on November 1st and although Shell Chemical carried

offers forward. EGAF truck prices to distributors in Quebec remain assessed between CAN $1.30/kg and $1.45/kg delivered with

prices in lower Ontario between with offers CAN $1.20/kg and $1.35/kg delivered

Far East MEG

Regional activity thinned early in the week as crude

values tumbled and spot prices drifted lower before

news of localized production issues sent bids and offers

moderately higher aided by short covering.

Fundamentally downstream demand among end users

remains soft and availability appears adequate despite

the recent downtime. PET related sales are seasonally

thin and the polyester sales ratio in China is noted near

80%. Spot PET FOB CMP was assessed near or just

above $800/mt last week. Feedstock availability is

somewhat constrained due to production issues

including an unplanned shutdown at the 960,000 mt/yr

Shell cracker in Singapore on December 1st which

prompted a force majeure declaration on ethylene.

Upstream ethylene prices remain elevated and with

supply improving in both Europe and the US there are

reports of more incremental spot imports on the way from both regions. MEG contract prices will likely head lower again next

month following sizeable downward adjustments this month. On Thursday of last week MEGlobal announced it will lower its

Asian Contract Price (ACP) posted price $70/mt to $720/mt on January 1st after moving down $90/mt this month and rolling in

November. SABIC was subsequently noted announcing a $40 drop to $730/mt next month after dropping $70/mt this month and

implementing a $20/mt decrease last month. Shell Chemical will go down $80/mt next month to $700/mt after dropping $80/mt

this month and moving down $10/mt in November. For a complete list of current prior nominations by major importers and related

benchmarks current subscribers can access the client website.

Supply is somewhat constrained due to local outages, although several plants in NE Asia came back up recently and downstream

demand is subdued so availability appears adequate. Regional sources report Shell Chemicals shutdown its 750,000 mt/yr MEG

unit in Palau Bukom Singapore and declared force majeure on MEG effective December 4th

after bringing down its cracker on

December 1st due to a technical issue. Observers claim the company will reduce or suspend MEG supply from the plant into

January, although last week some sources claimed the complex could remain off-line for four to six months. On October 19th

the

company lifted a force majeure on base chemical products caused by an "operational upset" at the plant five days prior. In China

CSPC reportedly restarted its 400,000 mt/yr plant in Huizhou last week following a turnaround begun in October. In Puyang

Hunan Energy reportedly shut its 200,000 mt/yr coal based plant for two to three weeks due to a technical issue. In Taiwan the

250,000 mt/yr OUCC unit and the 200,000 mt/yr CMFC plant reportedly restarted after planned outages earlier last month. In

Saudi Arabia Petro Rabigh was expected to bring its 600,000 mt/yr plant back up following a six week turnaround by the middle

of the month. In Taiwan NanYa will reportedly shutdown its 720,000 mt/yr Unit 4 for a planned turnaround on December 28th

.

Large volume spot prices moved lower with crude on Monday and Tuesday as prompt imports CFR CMP were noted near

$540/mt and dated arrivals were bid near $535/mt and offered closer to $540/mt. By midweek dated volume rebounded with offers

rising above $540/mt. One early deal was noted at $538/mt and another for January was reported later at $543/mt. Late last week

dated deliveries were reportedly bid near $540/mt with offers near or above $545/mt and one deal noted at $544/mt. Chinese

domestic markets appear balanced to snug as steady to slow demand offset some supply constraints arising from regional outages.

400

550

700

850

1000

$/M

T

USG MEG Spot v. China Netback

FOB USG CFR China Netback





8

In Eastern markets spot offers were assessed near CNY 4,230 to CNY 4,240/mt ex-Ningbo. Competitive offers in Southern

markets were assessed near CNY 4,350 to CNY 4,400/mt ex-tank.

Europe MEG

Regional supply issues kept local markets insulated and spot prices supported for much of November, although that dynamic

changed rapidly last week sending spot assessments markedly lower. Late last month the 350,000 mt/yr MEG and 500,000 mt/yr

EO BASF plant in Antwerp restarted. The 290,000 mt/yr Ineos plant that went down unexpectedly in Dormagen on November 9th

leading to allocation measures (it also produces 150,000 mt/yr MEG) also reportedly came back up. Both companies removed

allocation measures. Although supply is improving and spot ethylene prices adjusted lower near Euro 900/mt FD NWE with the

restart of several crackers including Shell’s plants at Wesseling and Moerdijk feedstock costs on a contract basis moved up earlier

this month after the regional ethylene contract settled up Euro 22.50/mt at Euro 927.50/mt (and rolling in November). Last week

there was confirmation Shell also removed its force majeure. Downstream spot PET prices were stable in the Euro 930/mt range

FD NWE. The regional MEG contract price dropped Euro 5/mt to Euro 820/mt for December after rolling over last month and

adjusting Euro 26/mt lower in October. Some producers had hoped to move the marker higher or at minimum carry over the

existing benchmark due to supply constraints and cost increases at the time, although buyers pointed out availability issues have

already begun to dissipate and spot prices will likely continue to settle back. Large volume spot prices last week were reported

back near Euro 740/mt with smaller quantities FCA NWE between Euro 800/mt and Euro 810/mt after topping out well over Euro

900/mt earlier in the month.

US EO

Several domestic producers report demand for purified EO slipped in the last few weeks, although availability was also curtailed

due to a string of plant outages and rate reductions in the US and Mexico. At this time Indorama still reportedly has production

issues and Formosa went down for an unplanned 10 to 15 day outage, although customers claim Equistar is back up and supplying

at 100% (as compared to 40% allocation measures it imposed on October 30th

). Upstream spot ethylene prices remain depressed

despite firming slightly last week with spot delivered USG pipeline assessed near 18.25/lb and the November contract benchmark

rising 0.25 ct/lb to 28.50 cts/lb. The most recent ethylene contract adjustment had little impact on derivative prices with large EO

end users (20 mln lbs or more) assessed near or slightly above 47 cts/lb, medium sized consumers (10 to 20 mln lbs) in the high 40

cts/lb range and small end users (under 10 mln lbs) into the low 50 cts/lb range.

US PG

Contract and spot prices initially moved up as much as 4

cts/lb after most US producers pushed through

announced increases, although end users claim at least

one producer did not raise its prices and among those

that did move up, many were quick to make revisions

that resulted in average increases of 2 cts/lb as of last

week. A few buyers reported they had yet to receive

notice of any adjustments, but in most instances the

companies reported they had not placed new orders.

Although net transactions and spot offers are widely

reported up as much as 2 cts/lb, some observers claim

competition among suppliers, particularly in the

Midwest and potential the Northeast could result in

further downward adjustments among those that moved

up this month. Dow Chemical made a very early

announcement on October 30th

raising off-list PGI and

PGUSP prices in the US and Canada 4 cts/lb and DPG,

TPG and PO prices up 5 cts/lb effective December 1st.

Huntsman raised all grades of MPG (list and off-list) 4

cts/lb and PO, DPG as well as TPG 5 cts/lb this month. Lyondell moved MPG prices up 4 cts/lb and DPG as well as TPG prices up

5 cts/lb. Other producers and importers reportedly also informed customers of their intention to move prices up next month,

although customers claim at least one did not follow through. Producers adjusted MPG prices down on an off-schedule basis in

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

US

cts

/lb

US MPG Historical Prices

PGI Contract PGI USG Terminal




9

prior months after rescinding a series of increases. Net PGI prices are still at a significant discount compared to PGUSP in many

regions. Regional availability within the Americas is healthy, although production overseas was impacted in part by an unplanned

outage at the Shell Singapore complex which could last several months according to local sources (80,000 mt/yr MPG capacity).

Demand among large end users is still thin with UPR seasonally slow and other winter driven markets such as the deicer sector

trailing forecasts due to mild weather conditions. Upstream feedstock costs remain marginally higher on a contract basis as of last

month with another penny announced by producers for December (although at this time many expect a rollover). US propylene

contract prices settled up a penny for November after production curtailments led spot prices higher earlier in the month. The

increase put chemical grade at 30 cts/lb and polymer grade at 31.50 cts/lb following a half cent increase in October. Polymer grade

spot prices remain relatively flat near or above 29 cts/lb del USG. In Europe the propylene contract price rolled this month at Euro

670/mt.

Regional distributors report competitive prices in many parts of the country settled up roughly 2 cts/lb in many instances last week,

although a few claim their costs are higher and some suggest at least one producer did not move up. At this time most resellers

and distributors report PGI spot offers in the US Gulf up 2 cts/lb with few exceptions, and several end users claim their suppliers

have yet to back off the full 4 cts/lb hike. Competitive PGI truck prices to distribution reportedly went from roughly 50 or 51 cts/lb

to 52 or 53 cts/lb while offers to smaller end users firmed 2 cts/lb to between 54 and 58 cts/lb FOB USG according to several

resellers. There are still a few rumors of PGI deals a penny lower. PGUSP spot truck prices are still elevated by comparison with

spot offers FOB Houston to distributors reported on either side of 70 cts/lb and offers to consumers in the mid to upper 70 cts/lb

range according to some distributors. Spot DPG is assessed slightly higher in the low to mid 80 cts/lb range FOB USG. Regional

distributors in the Midwest report most producers agreeing to lower offers to reflect 2 cts/lb increases this month, although one

producer was noted rolling over. At the low end of the selling range to distribution PGI from the USG was reportedly offered near

54 cts/lb FOB Chicago amid reports of limited supply a penny or two lower. Spot PGI to consumers was assessed in a tighter range

above 54 or 55 cts/lb FOB. Spot PGUSP was noted offered by one supplier near 70 cts/lb although most sellers are holding prices

up 2 cts/lb which should put them on either side of the 80 cts/lb mark FOB. By comparison distributors and competitive end users

in the Northeast report prices better supported with some producers agreeing to scale back offers to 2 cts/lb and others holding to

the 4 cts/lb hikes. Competitive PGI truck prices to distribution are noted near 58 cts/lb FOB USEC this month with some offers to

distributors approaching the 60 cts/lb mark, while offers to smaller consumers remain in the low to mid 60 cts/lb range according

to resellers. Spot PGUSP prices remain assessed in a wider range from lows under 70 cts/lb attributed to a few producers selling to

distributors to more mainstream offers to consumers in some cases closer to the 80 cts/lb mark FOB.

PO/MPG Shutdowns Date Company Location Capacity Details

Oct 2015- ADM Decatur, IL 100,000 Rumored RR Q1 2015 Dow Freeport, TX * Rumored PO maint. Q2 2015 LyondellBasell Channelview, TX * PO maintenance. Feb-Apr 2015 Huntsman Port Neches, TX 66,000 PO outage, delayed. April 2015 SKC Ulsan, Korea 110,000 T/R Dec 2015 Shell Bukom, Singapore 80,000 Outage, 4-6 months




10

US Antifreeze

Unseasonably mild weather across key antifreeze

consuming regions of the Midwest and Northeast

continues to undermine sales efforts according to

some blenders, although prices remained relatively

resilient in previous weeks. Last week there were

more reports of lower bulk offers in the southern

half of the country attributed in part to lower

replacement costs and a rise in local sales initiatives.

Some regional marketers report stocks in some parts

of the country are higher than normal and in places

like Texas sellers appear increasingly eager to move

volume to avoid floor taxes at the end of the year.

Raw material costs in the form of EGAF prices

deteriorated from August through November before

stabilizing somewhat due to production issues,

although many expect availability to improve in the

near term sending prices lower once again. There

remains no confirmed across the board antifreeze

price changes noted among major blenders, although

sellers are adjusting down to remain competitive or

move volume. Net prices declined roughly50 cts/gal

during the course of the summer followed by reports of drops totaling another 25 to 50 cts/gal and more recently another wave of

discounting attributed to both majors and regions.

Antifreeze prices appear under pressure with bulk offers reportedly more competitive in the USG and offers for drums and jugs

still better supported by comparison according to some observers. Regional blenders in the South report slower than anticipated

sales and increased competition among sellers heading into December. Universal green bulk attributed to majors was reported near

or below the $4/gal mark FOB Houston, although last week there were reports of some private label virgin and reprocessed based

bulk offers in the mid $3/gal range FOB. Drum prices are assessed in a wider range near or above $5/gal FOB with delivered

green jugs in the mid to upper $5/gal range depending upon seller. As previously noted other formulations including heavy duty

were still reportedly offered at significant premiums. Activity in the Midwest also stalled according to local blenders and some

sellers are reportedly more competitive. Virgin universal green private label bulk was reported offered near $4/gal FOB Chicago

area last week with some branded offers still considerably higher. Drums were noted near lows just under $5/gal FOB USMW

while competitive jug prices according to some sellers dipped into the mid $5/gal range on a delivered basis. Others suggest some

branded green is still offered closer to $6/gal delivered. .Local blenders in the Northeast report prices remain better supported by

comparison, although demand is also thin with mild weather impacting restocking in the region. Last week bulk universal green

was reported near lows just above the $4/gal mark FOB USEC with drums just above $5/gal delivered and green jugs still in a

wide range on either side of $6/gal delivered locally.

Canada Antifreeze

Demand among seasonal buyers remains thin with temperatures in both the East and the West still above normal through last week

and inventories among some resellers higher than anticipated. Prices are reportedly stable with no new across the board changes

noted. Although raw material costs eroded from August through November the value of the Canadian dollar as compared to the US

dollar dropped over 15% during the course of the year. In the last month the value of the Canadian dollar dropped another 3%.

Competitive adjustments were sporadically applied to maintain market share in the preceding months. Blenders rolled back

announced CAN 80 cts/gal (and 50/50 by 40 cts/gal) increases in August after initially deferring them in July. Universal green

bulk offers FOB lower Ontario remain unchanged in the mid CAN $6/gal range. Universal green jugs delivered lower Ontario

remain assessed in the mid to upper CAN $7/gal range while jug prices delivered Quebec are assessed over CAN $8/gal.

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

20

30

40

50

US

$/G

AL

US

cts

/lb

(Ba

rg

e a

nd

Co

st)

US Antifreeze Cost Comparison

EGAF FOB USG Barge

Antifreeze Jug Cost Estimate

Private Label Jugs Del EOR




11

6x1s

Branded 6.50 - 7.00 6.00 - 6.75 6.10 - 6.85 7.40 - 8.50

Private label 6.35 - 7.00 5.50 - 6.20 5.60 - 6.30 7.20 - 8.40

PG-based 8.50 - 9.00 9.50 - 11.00 9.60 - 11.10

Non-virgin 6.25 - 6.50 5.40 - 6.00 5.50 - 6.10

DRUMS

Branded 5.75 - 6.00 5.50 - 5.95 5.60 - 6.05 6.70 - 7.50

Private label 5.45 - 5.95 5.25 - 5.85 5.35 - 5.95 6.60 - 7.40

PG-based 9.00 - 10.50 9.10 - 10.60

Non-virgin 5.15 - 5.50 5.25 - 5.60

BULK

Branded 4.25 - 4.50 3.75 - 4.25 3.85 - 4.35 5.80 - 6.40

Private label 4.00 - 4.50 3.40 - 3.95 3.50 - 4.05 5.70 - 6.30

Antifreeze Prices in US$/gal

Posted Net EOR Net WOR

N/A

(CAN $/Gal)

N/A N/A

N/A N/A

Net CAN

N/A

EOR = del. East of Rockies, WOR = del. West of Rockies, CAN = del. Canada

Antifreeze prices usually do not include premium brands such as Prestone, Peak and Zerex

All Canadian prices (CAN) are quoted in Canadian dollars (current exchange rates at time of publication are listed in the exchange

table near the end of the report)

NOTICES

Chemical Intelligence recently revised and augmented “The Methanol Report” making it the most comprehensive source

for North American methanol market available at a time when fundamental shifts in local supply will lead to wide spread

restructuring. For more information please contact [email protected].

Currency USD/1 unit 1 unit/USD

Euro 1.10 0.91

UK Pound 1.52 0.66

Canadian Dollar 0.73 1.38

Japanese Yen 120.97 0.01

Swiss Franc 0.98 1.02

Current Exchange Rates

mailto:[email protected]




COMPANY Location KMT/YR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Remarks

United States

Dow Seadrift, TX 283 Unconfirmed problems Aug/Sep.

Eastman Longview, TX 105 Rumor EO S/D briefly June

Lyondell Bayport, TX 265 1 14 Unplanend S/D Oct 30.T/R 2016.

Formosa Point Comfort, TX 300 15 15 TR

Huntsman Port Neches, TX 365 2 Electrical outage Oct.

Indorama Clear Lake, TX 380 10 5 5 5 Unconfirmed outage.TR Jan 2016.

Shell Geismar 2, LA 125 20 15 TR

Shell Geismar 3, LA 250

Canada

MEGlobal Ft Saskatchewan, AB 340

MEGlobal Prentiss 1, AB 310

MEGlobal Prentiss 2, AB 350 21 TR

Shell Scotford, AB 450 6 22 TR

Mexico

Idesa Morelos 200 21 TR

Pemex Morelos 200 21 TR

Brazil

Oxiteno Camacari-Bahia 285

Oxiteno Maua 25

Venezuela

Pralca Jose 95

Estimated production lost 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 57 76 15 5

Regional Total Capacity Max 4,328 361 361 361 361 361 361 361 361 304 285 345 355

THE AMERICAS 2015Estimated Days of Production Lost

350

400

450





Australia

Huntsman Botany Bay 19

China

BASF/Yangzi Nanjing 340 25 25 Explosion, S/D 50 days.

Beijing Dongfang Chem Beijing 40

Beijing Dongfang Chem Yanshan 60

Beijing Dongfang Chem Yanshan 220

Sinopec Beijing Yanhua 80

Fushun Petrochemicals Fushun 60

Henan Anhua Henan 200

Jilin Chemicals Jilin 160 23 15 TR

Liaoyang Petrochemicals Liaoyang 50

Liaoyang Petrochemicals Liaoyang 150

Sinopec Shanghai Jinshan, Shanghai 230

Shell/CNOOC Nanhai 320

Maoming Maoming 130

Sinopec Yangzi Yangzi 300

Sinopec/SABIC Tianjin 420 20 TR June 20 days

Petrochina Dushanzi 60 25 20 TR April 45 days.

Shanghai Petrochem Jinshan, Shanghai 380 6 O/R at 80%

Sinopec Zenhai Zenhai 650 5 O/R at 75%

Ningbo Heyuan Zhejiang 500

Sinopec Hubei Chemical Zhejiang 200 31 28 31 15 Delayed restart

GEM Tongliao, Mongolia 200 13 5 10 Maintenance

Fujian Refining Quanzhou, Fujian 400 14 Startup April 2015. S/D Nov.

Far Eastern Yangzhou 500 12 Unplanned S/D

India

Indian Glycols Kashipur 150

India Oil Haryana 325

Reliance Baroda 15

Reliance Nagathane 60

Reliance Gandhar 240

Reliance Hazira 1 150



SM Dyechem 80

Nocil Bombay 15

Indonesia

Polychem Merak 1 90

Polychem Merak 2 126 21 TR

Japan

Mitsubishi Kashima 300

Mitsui Chemical Chiba 145

Mitsui Toatsu Senboku 50

Nippon Shokubai Chidori 165 5 Jan O/R at 75%

Nippon Shokubai Ukishima 165

Maruzen Chiba Goi 120

Maruzen Yokkaichi 82

Korea

Lotte Yeochon 1 120

Lotte Yeochon 2 120

Lotte Yeochon 3 160

Lotte Daesan 1 250

Lotte Daesan 2 400

LG Daesan 210 9 21 TR

North Korea State Plant Payangtang 8

Malaysia

Petronas Kerteh, Terengganu 365 25 25 TR

Singapore

Ethylene Glycols Sing. Ayer Merbau 122

Shell Eastern Petro. Jurong Island 750

Taiwan

China Man Made Fibre Kaohsiung 200 15 30 15 TR

Nan Ya Plastics Corp. Unit 1 Mai Liao 360 30 TR


Nan Ya Plastics Corp. Unit 3 Mai Liao 360 20 12 TR


Oriental Union Chemical Kaohsiung 250 21 TR

Thailand

PTT Map Tha Phut 400 5 25 TR


Regional Total Capacity Max 13,402 1,100 1,094 1,095 1,085 1,076 1,027 1,030 1,117 1,097 1,045 1,085 1,117

ASIA 2015Estimated Days of Production Lost





Saudi Arabia

SABIC/Mitsubishi Jubail, Sharq I 500

SABIC/Mitsubishi Jubail, Sharq II 500

SABIC/Mitsubishi Jubail, Sharq III 500

SABIC/Mitsubishi Jubail, Sharq IV 700 30 New reactor Q1 2015

Yanbu/Mobil Yanbu, Yanpet I 400

Yanbu/Mobil Yanbu, Yanpet II 530

Yanbu/Mobil Yanbu, Yanpet III 625

Jubail United Jubail 700

Jubail United Jubail II 700

Petro Rabigh Jubail 700 5 30 9 TR

Yansab Yanbu 800 13 29 TR in April 2015

Saudi Kayan Jubail 573 60 day TR March 2016

Kuwait

Equate Shuaiba 550

Equate Shuaiba 650 7 12 TR

Iran

NPC Arak 105

NPC Marun, Bandar Imam 430

NPC Assaluyeh 400 7 Maintenance.

Turkey

Turkey Petkim Aliaga 100



MIDDLE EAST 2015Estimated Days of Production Lost





Belgium

BASF Antwerp 360

Ineos Antwerp 320 15 15 TR

France

Ineos Lavera 15 15 15 5 TR Feb.

Germany

BASF Ludwigshaven 25 15 30 TR

Clariant Gendorf 140

Ineos Cologne 175 10 10 TR

Netherlands

Dow Terneuzen 170

Shell Moerdijk 155

Poland

PKN Plock 84

Romania

Arpechim Pitesti 25

Petrobrazi Brazi 24

Spain

IQA Tarragona 100

Sweden

Akzo Nobel Stenungsund 7

CIS (various)

NKNK Nizhnekamsk 200

JSC Sibur Dzerzhink 200



EUROPE 2015Estimated Days of Production Lost

the glycol and derivatives meg usg ne asia … · cts/lb fob usg spot meg cfr china dips into the...

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