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October 26 th 2017 The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentation

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Page 1: The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentationen.thenavigatorcompany.com/var/ezdemo_site/storage/original/... · Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 ... (eucalyptus or

October 26th 2017

The Navigator Company

9M 2017Results Presentation

Page 2: The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentationen.thenavigatorcompany.com/var/ezdemo_site/storage/original/... · Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 ... (eucalyptus or

Diogo da Silveira – CEO

Fernando Araújo– CFO

António Redondo

Nuno Santos

João Paulo Oliveira

Joana Appleton - IR

Participation

1

Page 3: The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentationen.thenavigatorcompany.com/var/ezdemo_site/storage/original/... · Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 ... (eucalyptus or

• Main highlights

• Key figures

• Group performance

• Market outlook

• Update on new projects

• Subsequent events

9M 2017 Results presentation

2

Page 4: The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentationen.thenavigatorcompany.com/var/ezdemo_site/storage/original/... · Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 ... (eucalyptus or

3

Significant turnover growth and diversification over the last years

9M 2017 – Key Highlights

3

P&P Market YTD 2017

• Strong momentum for pulp, with prices jumping to all time highs

• Improvement in UWF demand and gradual price recovery, but average price remains lower YoY

Volumes • Record sales of UWF: 1 158 Ktons (+0.2%)• BEKP sales totalled 251 Ktons (+25%)• Tissue: strong improvement (+11%)• Energy: +16% in volume sold

Cost reduction • Efforts continue with total YTD estimated impact at € 18 Million

Financial costs and FXoperations

• Financial costs reduced by 61% YoY• Hedging operations with positive results

offsetting negative impact of FX evolution Free Cash Flow • Strong free cash flow generation in Q3

Outlook • Positive momentum for prices should continue

Page 5: The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentationen.thenavigatorcompany.com/var/ezdemo_site/storage/original/... · Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 ... (eucalyptus or

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1.000

1.100

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour

A4 – B Copy

BHKP

Index FOEX PIX (Europe )EUR

4

Max /Min (€/ton):

1.046 /766 = 1,36

Max/Min (€/ton):

810 / 352 = 2,30

A4 – B Copy: index for uncotaed woodfree paper (80 g/m2)

BHKP – index for bleached harwood kraft pulp (eucalyptus or birch)

Page 6: The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentationen.thenavigatorcompany.com/var/ezdemo_site/storage/original/... · Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 ... (eucalyptus or

EBITDA - Negative impact of paper price offset by cost reduction and volumes

(Mais info nos anexos)The negative impact of paper price YoY was reduced by highervolumes and cost reductions

• Costs: include reduction in wood costs , packaging and chemicals • Non recurring items include insurance indemnities deducted from start-up costs for

pellets business, Mozambique and biological assets

5

12.6

Volume

-11.1

Costs

300.1

Non Rec. & Other

6.6

Prices EBITDA 9M 2017

-1.4

301.5

-9.5

EBITDA 9M 2916

Page 7: The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentationen.thenavigatorcompany.com/var/ezdemo_site/storage/original/... · Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 ... (eucalyptus or

6

Paper performance in 9M 2017

• Sales of 1158 thousand tons of UWF – best first 9Monthsregistered;

• Although Navigator lead 4 price increases in Europe andInternational markets in 2017, average sales price decreased1.9% YoY; from December 2016 until September 2017 prices havebeen improving

• Prices have been impacted by the repositioning which occurred inOctober 2016, Fx impact (GBP and USD) and market mix

• Recovery in product mix: premium products share up to 49%(+1.6 pp. YoY); mill brands up to 61% (best mill brand share in Q32017 /63.2% ) in the last 5 years

• High load on mills: 43 days in September

Page 8: The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentationen.thenavigatorcompany.com/var/ezdemo_site/storage/original/... · Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 ... (eucalyptus or

NVG registered record sales volume to diversified geographies

1 158 K ton

YTD Sep Sales 727 KtEurope63%

89 KtUSA8%

Source: The Navigator Company

149 KtAfrica 13%

7

143 KtMiddle East

12%

44 KtLatin

America4%

6 KtAsia /

Oceania0.5%

Page 9: The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentationen.thenavigatorcompany.com/var/ezdemo_site/storage/original/... · Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 ... (eucalyptus or

8

Navigator Pulp Performance – 9M2017

• Pulp sales increased 25% in volume to 252 thousand tons(record volume sold since 2009)

• Navigator´s average price increased 6% YoY, but gained 22% fromDecember 2016 to September 2017

• 11% Growth YoY in Décor and Special papers segments, highcontribution segments (representing 69% of EuropeanSales)

• Increase sales to overseas markets: +43 thousand tons (YoY)

• End of September inventories at very low level (9 days) whencompared to year end 2016 and well below industry´s average (36days at the end of August)

Page 10: The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentationen.thenavigatorcompany.com/var/ezdemo_site/storage/original/... · Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 ... (eucalyptus or

9

Tissue performance YTD 2017

• Volume of tissue sold increases 11% YoY sustained by the 2015capacity increase

• Sales increased 11% to € 55 million (vs €50 million)

• Average sales price in 9M2017 slightly higher YoY due toimprovement in product mix

AFH 52%

AH 27%

C&C 12%

Reels 9%

Tissue Sales by segment

Portugal 64%

Spain 34%

Other 2%

Tissue Sales by market

Page 11: The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentationen.thenavigatorcompany.com/var/ezdemo_site/storage/original/... · Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 ... (eucalyptus or

M2 program continues

10

• M2 cost reduction and efficiency programme continues withestimated impact on EBITDA in 9M 2017 of € 18 million

• Of a total of 92 projects with successful initiatives, the followingstand-out:

+ Wood logistics: € 3.1 million

+ Energy purchases: € 2.6 million

+ Packaging purchases: € 2.3 million

+ Pulp and paper logistics: € 1.1 million

• Company on track to achieve ambitious target of M2 impactto EBITDA in 2017 of € 20 millions

Page 12: The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentationen.thenavigatorcompany.com/var/ezdemo_site/storage/original/... · Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 ... (eucalyptus or

11

Good operating performance but limited free cash flow 

With operating cash flow in line with 9M2016, free cash flow gained€ 48 million YoY, positively impacted by lower capex (-€ 25 million)and evolution of working capital (mainly reduction in inventories)

Cash Flow

CAPEX Change in inventories

Suppliers & Other *

Free Cash Flow

260

7615

54

149

Val

ues

in m

illio

n E

uro

s

33

Free Cash Flow at € 149 mln

Change in accounts

receivables

* Other includes accounts payable, taxes, antidumping and insurance

Page 13: The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentationen.thenavigatorcompany.com/var/ezdemo_site/storage/original/... · Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 ... (eucalyptus or

€ -16.6 mln

€-6.5 mln

9M2016 9M2017

12

New credit facilities and extension of maturity reduce cost of debt9M 2017 - Financial results

Significant reduction in borrowing costs

- Financial results improved from -€16.6 to -€ 6.5 million

- Financial costs in 2016 were negatively impacted by € 6 million due to the premium paid for the high yield call

- Interest paid were down € 4.2 million YoY

- FX effects resulting from hedging operations improved € 3.2 million

- Group contracted plain vanilla derivatives in a total amount of USD 350 million to cover 100% of net budget exposure estimated for 2017

Page 14: The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentationen.thenavigatorcompany.com/var/ezdemo_site/storage/original/... · Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 ... (eucalyptus or

• € 21 million for pulp, paper and others; includes recurrent capex of € 6.8 million

• € 34 million for Figueira da Foz pulp capacity project

• € 17 million for Cacia tissue mill

• € 2 million in new converting lines at V.V. Rodão

• € 2 million for others, including Mozambique and Pellets

Capex of € 76 million (vs.€ 101 million)

13

Page 15: The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentationen.thenavigatorcompany.com/var/ezdemo_site/storage/original/... · Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 ... (eucalyptus or

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1 11 21 31 41 51 9 19 29 39 49 7 17 27 37 47 4 14 24 34 44 2 12 22 32 42 52

Eur

/ To

n

US

D /

Ton

Week

BHKP (USD/Ton) BHKP (Eur/Ton)

14

Pulp prices have jumped since the beginning of 2017

YTD BHKP in USD: +35% and BHKP in Euros: + 22%

YoY average BHKP in Euros and USD for 9M2017: +11%

BHKP USD

BHKP EUR

PIX Europe

Prices: Week 1/ Week 39

+138 EUR/t(+22%)

+245 USD/t(+35%)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Page 16: The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentationen.thenavigatorcompany.com/var/ezdemo_site/storage/original/... · Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 ... (eucalyptus or

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

1 11 21 31 41 51 9 19 29 39 49 6 16 26 36 46 4 14 24 34 44

European Market Price Evolution

Source: FOEX

And although Navigator has led 4 prices increases, paper prices haven´t fully recovered

829 €/ton810 €/tonAv. YTw39

Av. YTw 39

2014 20162015 2017

Week

Paper Benchmark has been gradually improving but the average pricefor the paper benchmark is still down 2.3% YoY

Last PixWeek 39: 827 €/ton

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Page 17: The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentationen.thenavigatorcompany.com/var/ezdemo_site/storage/original/... · Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 ... (eucalyptus or

Source:; PPPC; The Navigator Company –

Global UWF Demand increased 0.9% YoY

16

Among graphic papers, only UWF registered an increase in demand of 0.9% YoY

-1.9%

0.9%

-1.0%

-3.4%

UncoatedMechanical

UncoatedWoodfree

Coated Woodfree CoatedMechanical

World Printing &Writing Demand Growth by Grade

(8 months 2017 vs. 2016)

Page 18: The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentationen.thenavigatorcompany.com/var/ezdemo_site/storage/original/... · Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 ... (eucalyptus or

17

Paper Market in Europe and US

Sales to other markets include Africa, Latin America, Middle East, Turkey, Asia, mainly in USD

• UWF consumption registered a slight decrease of 0.3% YoY, with cut sizeand folio performing better than reels

• Although imports decreased 3.4% YoY, producers from Canada and Russiahave been increasing their presence in Europe since the beginning of theyear, mainly driven by price improvement, scarcity of paper and USDdevaluation

Europe

• UWF consumption decreased 6.2% YoY, with imports decreasing around12% YoY; conversely, exports from the US expanded 9% YoY, mainly toAfrica, Middle East and Asia

• Global increase in UWF price announced in the USA effective October

• Capacity closures announced for Q4 2017 and 2018 (~-424 Ktons)

US

Page 19: The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentationen.thenavigatorcompany.com/var/ezdemo_site/storage/original/... · Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 ... (eucalyptus or

EUR/t Price Evolution in Europe

Source FOEX

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016YTD 2017*

BHKP EUR 538 484 447 419 471 509 514 534 403 641 579 586 596 561 707 627 703

Copy B EUR 1002 978 910 824 786 802 840 851 803 816 870 863 846 827 822 824 810Gap 465 493 463 405 314 292 326 317 399 175 291 276 250 266 115 197 107

+107€/ton

And the price gap between paper and pulp is at a minimum level

18

+399 €/ton

+465€/ton

Page 20: The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentationen.thenavigatorcompany.com/var/ezdemo_site/storage/original/... · Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 ... (eucalyptus or

Outlook for 2016 

Pulp: strong performance continues, with significant reduction in marketpulp due to maintenance/ strategic stoppages; however:

+ Current pace of demand growth difficult to sustain

+ Spread between short and long fibre at all-time lows

Tissue: high competition and pressure on margins due to rise in pulpprice and NVG announced price increase in tissue starting October

Paper: gradual improvement in paper conditions and current comfortable

order book: Navigator has just announced another increase in

UWF price for January 2018

Positive market outlook

19

− The Group has decided to adapt the production of one of its paper machines in Setubal, to include the production of some heavyweight paper (>120 gr); this will have a positive impact on margins and will reinforce the supply to its clients, through higher quality standards and optimized commercial and logistics conditions

Page 21: The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentationen.thenavigatorcompany.com/var/ezdemo_site/storage/original/... · Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 ... (eucalyptus or

Increase efficiency and cost reduction iniciatives

Operations improve at Colombo Energy

20

• During Q3 Group successfully solvedproduction problems and operatingstability was achieved ;

• Ebitda for pellets still negative butwith an improvement trend

• Current quality of pellets produced isvery good

Page 22: The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentationen.thenavigatorcompany.com/var/ezdemo_site/storage/original/... · Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 ... (eucalyptus or

Increase efficiency and cost reduction iniciatives Mozambique project - Reminder

• Scale down rhythm of investment andoperations

• Company remains engaged and isnegotiating necessary conditions toproceed with the project

• Plans to build the Moatize-Macuserailway line and the port of Macuse,due for completion in 2021-22increase attractiveness of the project

21

Page 23: The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentationen.thenavigatorcompany.com/var/ezdemo_site/storage/original/... · Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 ... (eucalyptus or

Increase efficiency and cost reduction iniciatives Update on New Projects - Cacia Tissue

• Integrated tissue mill with capacity to produce 70 thousand tons ofreels and converting products with estimated capex of 120 million(78% of project commissioned)

• Main equipment suppliers have been selected and site preparationwork occurring, with 160 workers currently involved

• 80% of capex already committed

• Project on time and on budget: paper machine to start up inQ3 2018

22

Page 24: The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentationen.thenavigatorcompany.com/var/ezdemo_site/storage/original/... · Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 ... (eucalyptus or

Increase efficiency and cost reduction iniciatives Update on New Projects – Pulp F.Foz

• Target to increase production efficiency and pulp capacity atFigueira da Foz, by 70 thousand tons

• Capex of €85 million includes important environmentalinvestments in reduction of odor, waste, air and liquidemissions and also investments in innovativemanufacturing processes, improving equipment efficiencyand product differentiation.

• Recent progress:

+ 83% of capex already commissioned

+ Civil construction started

+ Main equipment to be fitted in August /September

• Project on time and on budget: new capacity planned tocome online in March 2018.

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Page 25: The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentationen.thenavigatorcompany.com/var/ezdemo_site/storage/original/... · Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 ... (eucalyptus or

Outlook for 2016 

• October fires:

• Total area burned in Portugal increased to 520thousand hectares

• Approximately 6100 hectares related to theGroup

• Financial impact is still being assessed

• Difficult to estimate the consequences of thesefires for wood supplies in future years, but atthis time no risks are anticipated to the supplyof wood to the Group's industrial units.

Subsequent Events

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Page 26: The Navigator Company 9M 2017 Results Presentationen.thenavigatorcompany.com/var/ezdemo_site/storage/original/... · Pulp and Paper: different price behaviour A4 ... (eucalyptus or

Fire impact by species

In Portugal,

the burnt areas evolution by occupation was as follows:

0102030405060708090

100

2000-2015 2016 2017

23,2%

48,9%

15,4%

18,6%

49,0%

8,6%

19,2%

40,5%

22,6%

12,5%23,8% 17,7%

Other Bush Pine Eucalyptus

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Disclaimer

This presentation does not constitute or form part of and should not be construed as any offer or invitation to sell or issue, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for, any

securities in any jurisdiction nor shall it or any part of it nor the fact of its distribution form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract commitment or investment decision in

relation thereto nor does it constitute a recommendation regarding the securities analysed herein. No action has been made that would permit a public offering of any securities

mentioned in this presentation in any jurisdiction. No offers, sales, re-sales or delivery of any securities mentioned I this presentation or distribution of any offering material relating to any

such securities may be made in or from any jurisdiction.

Any decision to subscribe for or purchase ordinary shares in any offering should be made solely on the basis of information contained in any offer document that may be published by the

relevant issuer in final form in relation to such offering and securities.

This presentation is intended to provide a general overview of Portucel, S.A. business and does not purport to deal with all aspects and details regarding Portucel. Accordingly, no

representation, undertaking or warranty, express or implied, is given by Portucel or any of its subsidiary undertakings, affiliates, directors, officers, employees or advisors or any other

person as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information or opinions contained in this presentation or of the views given or implied or any other material discussion in connection with this presentation. This presentation has been prepared by Portucel solely for information purposes. Portucel any of its affiliates, directors, officers, employees or advisers or any other person shall not have any liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any

loss, errors or omissions howsoever arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith.

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