the role of vegetation-climate interaction on africa under climate change - literature review...
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The role of vegetation-climate interaction on Africa under climate change- literature review seminar
Minchao WuSupervisor: Markku Rummukainen, Guy Schurgers
2015-01-15
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Main drivers of climate and climate change
Source. IPCC 2013
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The development of Earth System Models (ESMs)
Source. IPCC 2013
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Vegetation feedback on climate
A
Source. Bonan et al. 2008
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Challenge to quantify due to various sensitivity in different process
Adapted from Zhang et al. 2014
+
Positive or negative depends on process sensitivity (contribution)
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Effects of large-scale deforestation
Source. Bala et al. 2007
Borael : Deforst. Albedo (+) shortwave net rad. (-) temp. (-)
Tropics : Deforst. Albedo (+) shortwave net rad. (-) evap. (-) & sensible heat flux (-) temp. (+)
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Effects of vegetation carbon-cycle feedback
CO2 (+) Stomata cond. (-) Evap. (-)
Precp. (-)Veg. (-)
Temp. +
Source. Bett et al. 2004
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RCMs : essential for policymaking for regional climate change
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Coupled Regional climate model – dynamic global vegetation model(coupled RCM-DGVM)
Feedback Variables
Study region
Models(RCM/DGVM)
FindingPapers Comments/outlook
Vegetation structure
Central United States
RAMS/CENTURY(weekly)
Seasonal vegetation phenological variation strongly influences regional climate patterns through its control over land surface water and energy exchange.
(Lu et al., 2001) The inadequate and unrealistic description of vegetation evolution in its current land surface models is considered a major deficiency
Vegetation structure
West Africa
RegCM3/CLM-DGVM(asynchronously, yearly)
Precipitation increase by 23% over the Sahel in summer compared 5% decrease without vegetation feedback
(Alo and Wang, 2010), (Wang and Alo, 2012)
Should use synchronously (fully) coupling approach in future study; Land use should be consider; model consistency: soil moisture;
Vegetation structure, fraction
Europe RCA/LPJ-GUESS,(fully coupled, daily)
Feedback effects are rather modest: feedback contribute 0.2-1 degree C increase for southern Europe and 0.2-0.5 decrease for northern and central Europe.
(Smith et al., 2011, Wramneby et al., 2010)
Smaller than assumed, such as in other studies Betts et al., 2000, Bala et al., 2007; Land use should be consider; model consistency: such as land surface process, stomatal regulation and soil hydrology.
Land use Unite State
WRF3/CLM3.5 Strong soil moisture-precipitation feedback in Midwest irrigated area
(Lu and Kueppers, 2012)
Need to improve LAI simulation, and irrigation scheme.
Crop, Vegetation structure, vegetation fraction
East Asian monsoon area
RegCM3/CERES(fully coupled, daily, land-surface scheme derived from BATS)
Reduced RMSE of the simulated precipitation by 2.2–10.7% over north China
(Chen and Xie, 2012) Uncertainties in modeling how monsoon dynamics responds in RCMs. Uncertainties also lie in the lack of description of natural vegetation growth and develop and the simplification of cropping system over the region.
Vegetation structure
Europe REMO/iMOVE (vegetation part originates from JSBACH)
Dynamics of vegetation cover and density contribute to difference from REMO2009
(Wilhelm et al., 2013) Soil hydrological dynamics is not capture for some regions that influence vegetation growth, e.g. LAI Further development effort should put to multi-layer scheme
Uncertainties in vegetation dynamicsOr coupling approach
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RCA-GUESS application (Europe)
Nor
mal
ized
phen
olog
y in
dex
sum
mer
Te
mp.
sum
mer
La
tent
Hea
t flu
x
Change in future Feedback contribution
Wramneby et al., 2010
Northern & central E.: cooler & wetter
Southern E: warmer & drier
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RCA-GUESS application (Arctic)
Nor
mal
ized
phen
olog
y in
dex
Change in future Feedback contribution
Zhang et al., 2014
Spring: warmingSummer: cooling
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Reflection of previous RCA-GUESS studies
Europe - Small feedback effects: Climate is controlled by general circulation and
effects of the Atlantic sea. Feedback is merely locally significant?
Artic – More processes should be included? SST feedback, Permafrost C feedbacks, land use,
nutrient feedbacks
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Attractive research domain - Africa• Carbon stock: 20% of global (NPP)
• Landscape change: Deforestation: ca. 10% of the total forest area of Africa annually
(2000-2010)Greening: 10%-50% increase in NDVI in over Sahel.20% of global land use CO2 emission
• Wildfire: > 68% of the global wildfire,
40% fire emission
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Research Questions• General research question: What is the role of regional vegetation-climate feedback for African climate change studies?
Sub-research questions: Can vegetation-climate feedbacks help to better understand
regional climate and vegetation conditions for present-day Africa?
If vegetation feedback is still limited to local or regional effects, it remote effect is possible to identify?
If integrating more processes would help better under vegetation-climate feedback and if so if how to better constrain uncertainty?
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Papers plan
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Some results for the current project plan
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Thanks!