arne winguth university of wisconsin-madison, usa uwe mikolajewicz, matthias gröger, ernst...
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Arne Winguth
University of Wisconsin-Madison, USA
Uwe Mikolajewicz, Matthias Gröger, Ernst Maier-Reimer,
Guy Schurgers, Miren VizcaínoMax-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Germany
The work is supported by the EU, BMBF-DEKLIM, UW Gradschool,
NASA CARBON CYCLE SCIENCE
CO2 Uptake of the biosphere:
Feedbacks between the carbon cycle and climate using
a dynamic earth system model
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MOTIVATION
• How will polar fresh water input by integrated
changes in surface circulation, continental ice sheets, and enhanced precipitation affect the thermohaline circulation on decadal-to-centennial time scales?
• How may these changes in the ocean circulation affect carbon uptake in the ocean and on land?
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Control simulation CO2 concentration increased from preindustrial (280 ppm) to 2 x, 3 x, or 4
x pre-industrial concentration with an increase of 1% per year 3x and 4x CO2 simulation where atmospheric radiation is calculated with a
pCO2 of 280 ppm (NO_FEED)
Simulations where freshwater input from ice sheet is not considered (NOICE)
Publication: Winguth et al., GRL, accepted.
Future Climate Change Simulations
Control2 x CO2
3 x CO2
4 x CO2
time (yr)
pC
O2(
pp
m)
ice sheet feedback
Noice sheet feedback
precipitation
ice sheets
pCO2 OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE DIFFERENCE 3 x CO2 - CONTROL
Mean900-1000
CUMULATIVE CO2 UPTAKE (kg C/m2)
Export Production mol C m-2 yr-1
PO4 anomaly mmol m-3
Central Pacific
3 x CO2-CONTROL
Vertical Velocity [10-6 m s-1]
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pH VALUE ANOMALY (3 x CO2- CTRL)
W. Atlantic
Riebesell Riebesell et al. et al. Nature (2001);Nature (2001);Engel et al.Engel et al.Limnol. Oceanogr. Limnol. Oceanogr. (2005)(2005)
Scanning electron micrographsunder conditions of 300 (top) and 780 - 850 ppm (bottom) pCO2 showing malformed coccospheres at the higher CO2 levels.
CO2 EMISSION SCENARIOS
1750-2000: fossil fuel emissions and land use data from CDIAC2000-2100: IPCC RES scenarios2100-3000: C2100 EXP(-1*(t-2100))
ANOMALY OF AIR SURFACE TEMPERATURE [K]
A1B B1
A2
Mean 2800-3000
ANOMALY OF AIR SURFACE TEMPERATURE [K]
MERIDIONAL OVERTURNING CIRCULATION [Sv]
precipitation
ice sheets
ANOMALY Of NET FRESHWATER INPUT [Sv]
NorthAtlantic
Change in Sealevel Equivalent [m]
Change in Sealevel Equivalent [m]
GREENLAND ANTARCTICA
Export Production Pg C yr-1
Change in carbon uptake
Conclusions In 1000-year future climate simulations
changes of freshwater input by ice sheets are significantly smaller than changes by precipitation.
Overall, consideration of both marine and terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks with climate significantly affects the CO2 radiative forcing due to a total decrease in the carbon uptake by ~24-28%.
Climate-Carbon Cycle Feedbacks
OXYGEN (3 x CO2) [mol/L]mean 900-1000 Central Pacific