the state of things perception and reputation ben page ... · 7 base: 1,257 british adults 18+,...

1

[email protected]

The state of things – perception and reputation

Ben Page, Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI

2

PREDICTION IS HARD

2

3

So where

are we?

4Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public

DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE

OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month

Marmite shock – confidence drops 28 pts in a month

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

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40

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-29


NOW THAT BRITAIN HAS VOTED TO LEAVE THE EU, TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU THINK IT WILL BE BETTER OR WORSE FOR

YOUR OWN STANDARD OF LIVING, OR WILL IT MAKE NO DIFFERENCE?

ASKED IN MAY AS:

IF BRITAIN VOTES TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION, TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU THINK IT WOULD BE BETTER OR WORSE FOR

EACH OF THE FOLLOWING, OR WOULD IT MAKE NO DIFFERENCE?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Brexit and standard of living challenge….

1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016

7

9

13

11

12

11

46

39

24

19

24

24

10

12

25

7

4

4

May-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

A lot better A little better Make no difference A little worse A lot wose Don't know


18

47

30

514

55

26

5

QA: RECENTLY THE VALUE OF THE BRITISH POUND HAS DECREASED COMPARED WITH OTHER CURRENCIES. (QB INCLUDES:

THIS IS LIKELY TO MEAN IMPORTS TO BRITAIN FROM OTHER COUNTRIES WILL BECOME MORE EXPENSIVE, WHILE BRITISH

EXPORTS TO OTHER COUNTRIES WILL BE MORE COMPETITIVE). ON BALANCE, DO YOU THINK THE FALL IN THE POUND IS A

GOOD THING OR A BAD THING FOR BRITAIN, OR DOES IT MAKE NO DIFFERENCE?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,000 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th September 2016

The depreciation of the Pound

QA QB

GOOD THING BAD THING MAKES NO DIFFERENCE DON’T KNOW

7

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,257 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th June 2016

Immigration trumped

the economy before

And which of these issues, if any,

that you mentioned is the most

important to you in helping you

decide which way to vote?

23 June…..

11

7

5

6

7

8

11

12

28

33

Don’t know

Nothing/none

The ability to travel in the

European Union

Britain’s ability to trade with

countries in the European …

The cost of EU immigration on

Britain’s welfare system

The impact on British jobs

Impact on public

services/housing

Britain’s ability to make

its own laws

The impact on Britain’s

economy

The number of immigrants

coming into Britain

Jun-16

Unprompted

8

45% single market

vs 39% stop immigration


0

10

20

30

40

50

60A

pr

03

Oct

03

Ap

r 04

Oct

04

Ap

r 05

Oct

05

Ap

r 06

Oct

06

Ap

r 07

Oct

07

Ap

r 08

Oct

08

Ap

r 09

Oct

09

Ap

r 10

Oct

10

Ap

r 11

Oct

11

Ap

r 12

Oct

12

Ap

r 13

Oct

13

Ap

r 14

Oct

14

Ap

r 15

Oct

15

Ap

r 16

Oct

16

2015 General Election

Miliband

elected

(Sept 10)

Corbyn

elected

(Sept 15)

May

as PM

(July 16)

HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Base: c. 700 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote

in General Elections

Conservatives spring to 18 point lead over Labour

2005 General Election 2010 General Election

Cameron

elected

(Dec 05)

Brown

as PM

(June 07)

CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM

Public services briefing – STRICTLY CONFIDENITAL NOT FOR CIRCULATION 10

Fundamentals haven’t changed - we are living in much more uncertain world

Public services briefing – STRICTLY CONFIDENITAL NOT FOR CIRCULATION 11

Life is more comfortable compared to the 1970s – but we still suffer from change anxiety

1975 2015

96%96%

71%

43%

Washingmachine

ownership

Central heating 77%

agree “the world is

changing too fast”

12

Patriotic nostalgia

everywhere

To what extent do you agree or

disagree…?

I would like … to be the way it used to

be

69%

62%

60%

57%

56%

56%

54%

53%

51%

50%

50%

46%

45%

45%

42%

41%

41%

35%

28%

28%

22%

21%

27%

34%

34%

36%

29%

34%

33%

44%

33%

43%

44%

38%

47%

46%

46%

45%

52%

67%

63%

73%

US

Argentina

India

Italy

France

Australia

Belgium

GB

Turkey

Canada

S Africa

Total

Russia

Brazil

Spain

Japan

Poland

Germany

S Korea

Sweden

China

Base: 16,039 adults across 20 countries (1,000 GB),

online,

The Global Trends Survey

Agree Disagree

US

13

Reasons to worry

15

Nativism seems the key driving force for Trump…..

Nativism/

16

Over here….

17Deloitte – Customer service expectations | August 2016 | FINAL |

Survey on behalf of Deloitte LLP for The State of the State 2016-17

57%33%

30%24%

22%20%

18%11%10%

7%6%6%6%5%5%4%

2%2%1%

The NHS and healthcare

Dealing with the UK leaving the EU

Education and schools

The economy and jobs

Immigration

Poverty, inequality and low pay

Housing

Social security, benefits and pensions

Defence, security and terrorism

Environment and climate change

Public transport

Local authority services

Police and preisons

Reducing the deficit

Universities and higher education

Infrastructure

Devolution withint he UK

Other

None of these

Which two or three,

if any, of the

following policy

areas do you think

should be the

priority for the UK

government over

the next 12

months?

Dealing with Brexit is a high priority for the public over the next 12 months, but the

NHS is clearly top of the list ….

Base: 1099 GB adults 15+

Q



20%

17%

14%

12%

8%

7%

7%

6%

5%

4%

Better public transport

Better health services / hospitals

More money / investment

Better road maintenace / traffic flow / management

Better street cleaning/ rubbish collection / recycling facilities

Better / more education / schools

Better / more police / policing

Nothing / none / no change good as they are

Better / improved services for the young / children

Better / improved housing / homes / more affordable rents

What things would

you say would most

improve public

services in your

local area? (Top ten

mentions)

Spontaneous requests for more of the following locally…..


Q



6%

8%

8%

21%

15%

25%

47%

39%

49%

25%

37%

10%

1%

2%

8%

A great deal A fair amount Not very much Not at all Don't know

November 2012

July 2016

As you may know, the

government has

announced a number

of spending cuts to

help reduce the

national deficit. To

what extent, if at all,

have you and your

family been affected

by the cuts so far?

Most still not noticing austerity


Q

August 2015



60%

46%

56%61%

76%

26%

33%

23%20%

14%11%

18%15%

12%7%

3%2%6%7%

3%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Government services should be extended, even if

it means some increases to taxes

Things should be left as they are

Taxes should be cut, even if it means some

reduction in government services

November 2000 April 2005 July 2016

People have different

views about whether

its is more important

to reduce taxes or

keep up government

spending. How about

you? Which of these

statements comes

closest to your own

view?

Starting to see shift in tax v spend priorities


Q

April 1997 June 2009



In the recent referendum Britain

voted to leave the European Union.

To what extent do you think this

will be better or worse for Britain’s

public services than if we had

voted to remain or will it make no

difference?

Overall, public expect Brexit to be worse for public services


9%

18%

26%20%

20%

5%

A lot better A little better Make no difference

A little worse A lot worse Don't knowQ

22

How are you doing?



Thinking about the

following list of

public services,

overall, how satisfied

or dissatisfied, if at

all, are you with the

quality of each?

Satisfaction with many key public services among users has held up or even improved.

Base: users of each service

*Small base size, indicative only

Q

1998 2000 2002 2016

Local sports or

leisure centres77% 76% 76% 86%

Parks and open

spaces79% 81% 81% 86%

Libraries 87% 88% 85% 85%

Recycling facilities 78% 80% 76% 82%

Universities and

higher education82% 78%

Schools 78%

NHS hospitals 80% 82% 76% 77%

GP surgeries 72%

Police 68%

Local bus services 62% 64% 66% 67%

Social services for

adults/older people60%

Social services for

children/families*59%



Thinking about public sector

organisations like local councils,

schools and hospitals, and private

sector companies like shops and banks.

Which do you think is better at

providing services – public sector

organisations or private sector

companies – or do you think there is no

difference?

Q

Public sector is improving…

Base: July 2016 - 1099 GB adults 15+ - May 2004 1502 GB adults 16+ by telephone. Trends indicative only

30%

20%

42%

38%

25%

36%

2%

10%

Public sector better No difference

July 2016

May 2004



4%14%

5%

51%

51%

21%

30%

7%

10%

4%

2%

2%

Greatly exceed expectations

Slighly exceed expectations

About what you expect

Fall slightly short of expectations

Thinking generally about what you

expect of public services like local

councils, schools or hospitals / private

sector companies like shops or banks,

would you say they…

Q

The public sector has got better at exceeding customer expectations

Base: 1099 GB adults 15+, September 1998: 5,064 GB adults

July 2016

September

1998

26Veracity Index 2015 Generational Analysis | January 2016 | Version 1 | PUBLIC

Who do they trust?

89%

86%

80%

79%

69%

68%

68%

67%

65%

59%

53%

51%

49%

47%

46%

43%

42%

37%

37%

35%

25%

25%

22%

21%

Doctors

Teachers

Judges

Scientists

Hairdressers

The Police

Ordinary Man/Woman in the street

Clergy/Priests

TV news readers

Civil Servants

Pollsters

Lawyers

Managers in the NHS

Charity Chief Executives

Trade Union Officials

Local Councillors

Builders

Bankers

Managers in Local Government

Business Leaders

Journalists

Estate Agents

Government Ministers

Politicians generally

“Now I will read you a list of different types of people. For each would you tell me if you generally trust them to tell the truth, or not?”

% trust to tell the truth

Base: 990 British adults aged 15+, fieldwork 5th December 2015 – 4th January 2016



How often, if at all, do you

think organisations that

deliver public services /

private sector

organisations…

Q

When asked about specific aspects of services, the public sector is behind the private

sector on offering a personalised service and listening to preferences…

Source: HMRC and OBR 2015Base: 1099 GB adults 15+,

23%

19%

17%

16%

25%

28%

27%

16%

Public sector

organisations

Private sector

companies

… understand

your needs

… listen to your

preferences

… offer you a

personalised

service

… involve you in

decisions about

how you use the

service

% Always /often

28

Building things….



Fieldwork dates: 18° Sept to 29° Sept 2015

Most support local decision-making for issues like housing ..

17%

25%

35%

36%

44%

56%

64%

65%

57%

47%

47%

38%

26%

18%

New housing developments

Transport, such as…

Schools and further…

Crime and policing services

Health and social care…

New infrastructure…

Welfare benefit payments,…

Nationally Locally

Q. For each of the following services, do you think decisions should be taken nationally for England as a whole or

locally by local bodies such as councils or other local service providers?

Base: All adults aged 16-75 in England (3831)

4

33

32

21

74

% Very satsified % Fairly satisfied

% Neither/nor % Fairly dissatisfied

% Very dissatisfied % Don't know

Base: 1,001 GB adults 16-65 (online), 26 Aug-9 Sept

I now want you to think

about Britain’s

infrastructure.

By infrastructure I

mean things we rely on

like road, rail and air

networks, utilities such

as energy and water,

and broadband and

other communications.

Overall, how satisfied

or dissatisfied are you

with Britain’s national

infrastructure?

Q

Public lukewarm on Britain’s infrastructure

Satisfied Dissatisfied

36% 29%

23

44

19

51

8

% Strongly agree % Tend to sagree % Neither/nor

% Tend to disagree % Strongly disagree % Don't know

To what extent do you

agree or disagree…?

Local

communities’

views on plans for

infrastructure

should be heard

properly, even if it

means delays

Q

But they want to be consulted even if slows development

Agree Disagree

67% 6%Base: 1,001 GB adults 16-65 (online), 26 Aug-9 Sept

4

23

31

27

14

% Very good % Fairly good % Fairly poor

% Very poor % Don't know

These next questions

are about different

types of

infrastructure in GB.

Please indicate how

good or poor you

rate the current

quality of each

one in GB…

New housing

supply

Q

Housing supply – 6 in 10 are negative

Good Poor

27% 59%Base: 1,001 GB adults 16-65 (online), 26 Aug-9 Sept

33

British confidence

still high

34

Base: 1,052 British Citizens aged 16-75 in GB. Interviews were

conducted online, from 26th-29th July 2016

What is best

From this list, please tell me

which two or three, if any of

these do you think are the best

characteristics of British people

as a whole?

6%

7%

13%

19%

24%

25%

26%

27%

40%

47%

Don't know

None

Keep to themselves

Law abiding

Hardworking

Friendly

Patriotism

Tolerant

Polite/Good Manners

Good sense of humour

about us?

35

????

Base: 1,052 British Citizens aged 16-75 in GB.

Interviews were conducted online, from 26th-29th July

2016

And what’s worst?

From this list, please tell me

which two or three, if any of

these do you think are the worst

characteristics of British people

as a whole?

5%

7%

7%

14%

14%

14%

17%

18%

19%

22%

27%

37%

42%

Don't know

None

Unfriendly

Rude

Too nationalistic

Bad teeth

Too pessimistic

Bad eating habits

Lazy

Intolerant to other…

Complain too much

Ignorant of other cultures

Drink too much

36

????

Base: 1,052 British Citizens aged 16-75 in GB.

Interviews were conducted online, from 26th-29th July

2016

Still proud to be British

rather than

Do you agree or disagree with

the statement, “I would rather

be a citizen of Britain than of any

country on earth?”

anything else!

31%

29%

23%

8%

5% 4%

Strongly agree

Tend to agree

Neither agree nor

disagree

Tend to agree

Strongly disagree

I am not British

Don’t know

38

[email protected]

Thank you

the state of things perception and reputation ben page ... · 7 base: 1,257 british adults 18+,...

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