ipsos mori uk_highlights_april_2016_final
TRANSCRIPT
IPSOS MORI
HIGHLIGHTS April 2016
© Ipsos MORI
The EU referendum continues to fascinate
Westminster and worry business.
Both our polling (where Remain is at 50% and Leave
at 44%) and the betting markets continue to point to
Britain voting to remain in the EU – but it will be a
nerve-wracking time for the FTSE100 and David
Cameron until that is confirmed on June 23.
The government’s popularity has fallen after the
budget and a u-turn on disability cuts – George
Osborne’s ratings now match his lowest ever scores,
and despite Jeremy Corbyn’s relatively poor scores
as a potential prime minister, the Conservative lead
over Labour slips back. However at this point in the
last parliament, the Conservatives were 12 points
behind Labour, so plenty can change in the future.
The Queen remains as popular as ever on her 90th
birthday, and 75% say the monarchy is important to
the future of the UK – up from only 66% in 1998.
Meanwhile doctors are revolting with their first all out
strike in 70 years, and 57% of the public say they
support them, with most (54%) blaming the
government.
Elsewhere we look at a possible President Trump in
the USA (unlikely to happen), the UK housing market
(40% of the young think they will never be able to
afford a home, despite house prices cooling), the rise
of the small screen (smartphone usage hit 70%, but
tablets flat-line), online banking, and the arrival of
luxury Apps.
All this and reports from our teams in India, Pakistan,
and Latin America and much more.
Tell us what you think!
All the best
Ben Page
Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI
WELCOME TO IPSOS MORI’S APRIL HIGHLIGHTS
© Ipsos MORI
OUT
IPSOS MORI OPINION
IPSOS MORI APRIL HIGHLIGHTS
MEDIA, BRANDS &
COMMUNICATIONS
• Future of TV
• Latest Technology Trends
• British public wants to hear from business on Brexit – but
may not trust what they have to say
• Economy and immigration key issues in the EU referendum
• George Osborne’s satisfaction ratings equal his worst ever
following budget
• Half think David Cameron should resign as PM if Britain
votes to leave the EU
• SNP set to win election while Conservatives and Greens
make progress
POLITICS
SOCIETY
• Concern about the EU rises to the highest recorded level
this century
• US Millennials most likely to identify as “working class”
• Tracking public views on science and biomedical
research
• The Monarchy are as popular as ever
• Leadership Connections 2016
• Ipsos Views: Big Data: A Guided Tour
• Ipsos Loyalty: Are Your Customers Working Too Hard
• Unlocking value with data science
INTERNATIONAL
HOUSING
• People underestimate past house price rises
• Halifax survey finds dip in house price sentiment
ECONOMY & FINANCE
• US Elections: The Inside Track
• Country Briefing: Consumers Book of Pakistan
• World Luxury Tracking 2016
• Latin America: The Economic Situation
• Understanding India’s affluentials • Majority support junior doctors ahead of first full walkout
HEALTH
POLITICS
© Ipsos MORI © Ipsos MORI
However, levels of trust in business on issues related to
the referendum are much lower, particularly for big
business.
• 75% of the public say that small and medium-size
British businesses should participate in the debate –
more than say the same for other groups such as
academics (68%), think tanks (54%) and
newspapers (52%).
• 57%) say that they trust small business owners on
issues relating to the referendum, leaders of large
businesses fare worse, being trusted on the issues
by just three in ten (29%).
BRITISH PUBLIC WANTS TO HEAR FROM BUSINESS ON
BREXIT – BUT MAY NOT TRUST WHAT THEY HAVE TO SAY
British public wants to hear from businesses, especially SMEs, in the EU referendum more than charities, think tanks or newspapers, new Ipsos MORI poll finds.
© Ipsos MORI © Ipsos MORI
• Two in three (32%) say the impact on the economy
will be very important in helping them decide how to
vote, just ahead of immigration which was mentioned
by 27%.
• When looking further into these figures there is a
clear difference on what issues are most important
between those that want to remain in the EU and
those who want to leave.
• Two in five (40%) of those who will vote to remain
say the economy is very important to them while
14% say immigration. This compares to one in five
(21%) of those voting to leave mentioning the
economy and almost half (47%) saying immigration.
ECONOMY AND IMMIGRATION KEY ISSUES FOR
BRITONS IN THE EU REFERENDUM
With just two months to go until Britain decides whether it will remain a member of the EU or leave, the latest Political Monitor reveals the economy and immigration to be the most important issues for the public when deciding how to vote.
© Ipsos MORI © Ipsos MORI
Key findings include:
• Three in five (60%) say they are dissatisfied with the
performance of Mr Osborne (up 14 points from
February) compared to one in four (27%) who say
they are satisfied (down 13 points)
• This equals his worst performance in March 2013.
Mr Osborne still has the backing of most of his party
with three in five (58%) Conservative supporters
saying they are satisfied with the Chancellor
(although 31% are dissatisfied)
• When asked about the budget proposals specifically
the poll finds that one in three (35%) believe they are
a good thing for them personally while two in five
(40%) think they are a bad thing
GEORGE OSBORNE’S SATISFACTION RATINGS EQUAL
HIS WORST EVER FOLLOWING BUDGET
One week following George Osborne’s budget announcement, Ipsos MORI’s new Political Monitor shows the Chancellor's satisfaction ratings have fallen compared to last month.
© Ipsos MORI © Ipsos MORI
Key findings include:
• Just under half (48%) think he should resign in that
scenario while 44% think he should continue as PM
• This sentiment is split along party lines with one in
three (34%) Conservatives saying he should resign
(63% think he should continue) as do 38% of Liberal
Democrats (54% think he should continue)
• This compares to 56% of Labour supporters (38%
think he should continue), and seven in ten (70%)
UKIP supporters (22% think he should continue)
• The survey also reveals that “remain” maintains a
lead over Brexit by 8 points
HALF THINK DAVID CAMERON SHOULD RESIGN AS
PRIME MINISTER IF BRITAIN VOTES TO LEAVE THE EU
As David Cameron continues to campaign for Britain to stay in the EU, the Political Monitor finds that almost half of the public believes he should step down from being Prime Minister if the British people choose Brexit on 23 June.
© Ipsos MORI © Ipsos MORI
• Among those likely to vote on May 5th, 51% would cast their
constituency vote for the SNP (down two points from
February), while 19% would vote for Scottish Labour (down
one point).
• The Scottish Conservatives are just one behind Labour at
18% (up two points) while support for the Scottish Liberal
Democrats remains unchanged at 6%.
• Voting intention on the regional element of the election,
crucial to the eventual distribution of seats between parties,
suggests more changes.
• The SNP is still significantly ahead at 45% (down four points
from February, while the Conservatives are in second place
at 19% (up four points) and Labour is down two points at
17%.
• Meanwhile support for the Scottish Greens has increased to
10% (up four points) while the Scottish Liberal Democrats are
at 7% (down one point).
SNP SET TO WIN ELECTION WHILE CONSERVATIVES AND
GREENS MAKE PROGRESS
As we enter the final week of campaigning ahead of the fifth Holyrood parliament elections, the new poll for STV News continues to highlight the dominance of the SNP
SOCIETY
© Ipsos MORI © Ipsos MORI
• Three in ten (30%) of the public now mention it as
one of the most important issues facing Britain, the
highest recorded level since December 1999.
• Conservative voters (43%), those living in the south
east of England (37%) and those aged 55 and over
(43%) are particularly likely to feel this is a big issue.
• The European Union is now the third-most
mentioned issue facing Britain, behind immigration
(41%) and the NHS (39%).
• Conservative and Labour voters disagree this month
on what is the most important issue facing Britain.
For Conservatives it is immigration (57% selected
this answer), whilst Labour supporters are more
likely to say that the NHS is the biggest issue (42%,
compared to 34% for immigration).
CONCERN ABOUT THE EU RISES TO THE HIGHEST
RECORDED LEVEL THIS CENTURY
The April 2016 Issues Index charts the continued rise in concern about the European union (EU) as an issue facing Britain.
© Ipsos MORI © Ipsos MORI
• The figures for other generations are lower – in the
same year 50% of Generation X members (those
born 1966-1979) and 44% of Baby Boomers (those
born 1945-1965) said they felt that they belonged to
the working class
• This finding is mirrored in the proportions who
consider themselves to be “middle class” –
Millennials are the least likely to identify with this
category, with 35% saying they belong to the middle
class, compared with 40% of Generation X and 44%
of Baby Boomers who say the same thing
• Since around 2000, there has been a trend of
decreasing identification with the middle class
amongst all generations bar the oldest (those born
before 1945).
US MILLENNIALS ARE MOST LIKELY TO IDENTIFY AS
“WORKING CLASS”
New analysis of the General Social Survey has found that a majority of Millennials (those adults born since 1980 – known as “Generation Y” in the UK) identify as working class.
© Ipsos MORI © Ipsos MORI
• The public express high levels of interest in medical
research. Around 75% of the public say they are
interested in medical research, which is a high level
of interest, consistent with previous waves
• Women, older adults, those with higher educational
qualifications, and those who know more about
science are more likely to be interested
• The public are particularly interested in the
development of new drugs, vaccines and
treatments, as well as mental health
• The proportion expressing interest in mental health
has increased from 48% in 2012 to 55% in 2015
• Around two in five of the public say they have
actively tried to find our information about medical
research in the past year.
TRACKING PUBLIC VIEWS ON SCIENCE AND
BIOMEDICAL RESEARCH
The Wellcome Trust Monitor research is designed to measure the public’s awareness, interests, knowledge and attitudes in relation to science and biomedical research.
© Ipsos MORI © Ipsos MORI
• The survey finds support for keeping the Monarchy
remains at the same high level as in the past (76%
favour Britain remaining a Monarchy compared to
17% preferring a republic).
• Three-quarters of the public (75%) say they think the
Monarchy has an important role to play in the future
of Britain, a slight increase since polls conducted at
the end of the 20th century, when the figure was
between 67% and 70%.
• Most of the public do not think the Queen should
retire, even though she turns 90 this year, only one
in five (21%) thought she should ever give up the
throne, while more than two-thirds (70%) thought
she should remain Queen.
MONARCHY POPULAR AS EVER AS THE COUNTRY
CELEBRATES THE QUEEN’S 90TH BIRTHDAY
As the country celebrates the Queen's 90th birthday, the Monarchy remains as popular as ever, and opposition to the Queen retiring has risen substantially since the turn of the century.
HEALTH
© Ipsos MORI © Ipsos MORI
• Support for this new round of action is slightly
lower than for previous strikes when emergency
care was not affected
• The findings also indicate that public support for
the all-out strike, where no emergency care is
provided, is higher than was suggested when the
same question was asked in January.
• Some 57% support the current walkout, but when
asked in January whether they would still support
the strikes if emergency care was not provided
just 44% said they would.
• Nearly one in five (18%) strongly oppose the full
walkout.
MAJORITY SUPPORT JUNIOR DOCTORS AHEAD OF
FIRST FULL WALKOUT
The poll for BBC News finds 57% support the doctors’ cause and a quarter oppose. Majority still think the government is most at fault for the ongoing dispute – but a rising number think government and doctors both to blame equally.
HOUSING
© Ipsos MORI © Ipsos MORI
• This compares to only 44% of people born in the Baby
Boomer or Pre-War years
• All generations expect the housing situation to get worse
for future ones, but Generation Y are especially worried
about their own prospects; 40% agree that ‘I worry I may
never be able to secure a suitable long-term home’
• A large majority of people who don’t currently live in a
long-term home (one suitable for the long-term i.e. 10
years or more) would like to, either now or in future, with
most saying the key reason is to give them stability or to
put down roots.
GEN Y THINK IT IS HARDER FOR THEM TO SETTLE DOWN
IN A HOME THAN IT HAS BEEN FOR OTHERS
New research for Shelter finds 74% of people in younger Generations X and Y of the view that it is harder for them to get a home to settle down in than it was for their parents’ generation.
© Ipsos MORI © Ipsos MORI
• This continues a trend of modest decline following a
high point in May 2015
• Still, 65% expect the average UK house price to rise in
the next 12 months (down 2 points since December
2015) with 9% anticipating a fall (up 3 points)
• At the same time, there has been a rise in the proportion
saying they ‘don’t know’; now at 13%, the highest since
March 2012
• Buying sentiment has also declined slightly with half
(50%) saying the next 12 months will be a good time to
buy a property, the lowest since September 2014 (when
it was at 49%)
• Meanwhile, 59% think the next 12 months will be a good
time to sell, little changed from December 2015.
ON ITS FIFTH ANNIVERSARY, HALIFAX SURVEY FINDS DIP
IN HOUSE PRICE SENTIMENT
Expectations of future house prices have fallen over the past quarter and are down to their lowest point since January 2015, according to the latest quarterly Halifax Market Confidence Tracker.
ECONOMY AND
BUSINESS
© Ipsos MORI © Ipsos MORI
This research explores the C-suite leaders’ agenda
for 2016 and the role of HR in helping to achieve
their key priorities.
Our joint report offers a unique cross-analysis of
opinions from C-suite leaders (as part of our
Captains of Industry survey), from HR professionals,
managers, as well as employees (as part of our RED
programme).
How can HR professionals be recognised as true
transformation agents by Board members?
PUBLICATIONS
RESEARCH ARCHIVE
PUBLICATIONS
TRENDS AND FUTURES
POLITICAL & SOCIAL TRENDS
LEADERSHIP CONNECTIONS 2016, HR AND THE C-SUITE
DRIVING INNOVATION
How can HR help the C-suite drive innovation? Download new research from Ipsos MORI and Cirrus examining the HR contribution to the C-suite agenda.
© Ipsos MORI © Ipsos MORI
For the research industry, the paper provides some
clear guidelines to follow to make sense of the
subject matter.
The tour includes:
• A definition of Big Data
• The characteristics and types of Big Data
• The risks of Big Data
• How Big Data should (and should not) be used
• Why Big Data needs big theory
PUBLICATIONS
RESEARCH ARCHIVE
PUBLICATIONS
TRENDS AND FUTURES
POLITICAL & SOCIAL TRENDS
IPSOS VIEWS: BIG DATA: A GUIDED TOUR
Big Data can be hard to pin down – a little mysterious, even. In this Ipsos Views white paper, Rich Timpone, Senior Vice President at the Ipsos Science Centre, gives us a guided tour of Big Data.
© Ipsos MORI © Ipsos MORI
This new white paper follows an Ipsos study that
found that over half of customers believe they are
working harder than companies to fix problems
following a negative complaint or incident. It outlines
what companies need to do to optimise the
Customer:Company Effort Ratio to maximise Loyalty.
The Customer:Company Effort Ratio, which takes
both perceived customer and company effort into
account, is three times more predictive of a
customer’s propensity to use the company again
following a negative experience than the customer
effort score alone.
PUBLICATIONS
RESEARCH ARCHIVE
PUBLICATIONS
TRENDS AND FUTURES
POLITICAL & SOCIAL TRENDS
IPSOS LOYALTY: ARE YOUR CUSTOMERS WORKING
TOO HARD
Jean-Francois Damais shows that measuring customer effort in isolation is not enough. While it does link to customer outcomes, it is the Customer:Company Effort Ratio that really matters.
© Ipsos MORI © Ipsos MORI
The Ipsos MORI Data Science team increasingly use
Bayesian techniques to help our clients make the
most of their data.
This approach is particularly useful for:
• making more accurate predictions
• improving the veracity of complex models
• compensating where data is sparse
PUBLICATIONS
RESEARCH ARCHIVE
PUBLICATIONS
TRENDS AND FUTURES
POLITICAL & SOCIAL TRENDS
UNLOCKING VALUE WITH DATA SCIENCE
How can the side project of a mid-18th century Presbyterian minister in Tunbridge Wells help you make more accurate predictions, improve the veracity of complex models and compensate where data is sparse? Clive Frostick introduces Bayesian Theory and its applications in modern research.
MEDIA, BRANDS
AND
COMMUNICATIONS
© Ipsos MORI © Ipsos MORI
With these developments come a number of new
opportunities and challenges for both content providers and
advertisers. In order to make the most of the rising
opportunities it becomes more important than ever to have an
in-depth understanding of your audiences’ needs within
different contexts, and whether you are actually meeting them.
Top three trends in TV:
• Content that follows you
• Content that increasingly aligns with context
• More immersive experiences across devices
Top three challenges for content providers and advertisers:
• Understanding need states across different platforms at
specific times
• Reaching the right audience
• Optimising content throughout live campaigns.
FUTURE OF TV
With content that follows you, more seamless interplay between screens, personalisation and deeper levels of immersion, the future of television looks more exciting than ever.
© Ipsos MORI © Ipsos MORI
Key findings include:
• A quarter of the GB population now own an
Internet TV, the same amount that currently owns
an iPad.
• Tablet ownership is flat at just under 50%, with an
equal split of iPad and non-iPad ownership in GB
households.
• Facebook dominates social media and nearly half
of all Facebook users are under 35
• Android has closed the gap on iPhone
• Online banking becoming increasingly popular
LATEST TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
Ipsos Connect's Tech Tracker is a quarterly, GB nationally representative research survey which measures the emerging trends and developments in technology.
INTERNATIONAL
© Ipsos MORI © Ipsos MORI
• From now until the election in November, this webinar
series is providing a thought-provoking examination of the
key election dynamics and players, and includes
predictions and analysis from our team of political experts
• Previous webinar recordings are available to view now, or
you can register to watch future ones live
• In addition to The Inside Track webinar series, the Ipsos
Ideas Spotlight blog and Ipsos NA website also have
regular articles about the election
• This includes analysis of Donald Trump’s climb in delegate
numbers following Super Tuesday and, more recently, the
decline in his favourability scores
US ELECTIONS: THE INSIDE TRACK
With the US presidential election taking place later this year, the Ipsos political polling team are hosting a monthly complimentary webinar series timed with key events in the electoral cycle and offering analysis on the main issues as they emerge.
© Ipsos MORI © Ipsos MORI
Based on in-depth research across urban and rural
Pakistan, the book enables global businesses to gain
a wider understanding of Pakistan’s consumer
market.
The data and analysis presented here provides
businesses with the opportunity to see beyond the
‘smoke screen’ and learn new things about the
country’s highly fragmented society, in order to make
bolder marketing decisions.
The topics covered are targeted particularly at global
investors and brand owners: they include media
consumption, shopping patterns, psychographic
orientation and more. The book also presents a
snapshot of the evolving multimedia landscape in
Pakistan.
COUNTRY BRIEFING: CONSUMERS’ BOOK OF PAKISTAN
Pakistan is one of the least documented economies in the world, but with a population of 180 million across 500 cities and 45,000 villages. The Consumers’ Book of Pakistan realises the need for authentic data for such a big and diverse market.
© Ipsos MORI © Ipsos MORI
The 2016 report delivers data on key topics,
including travel, shopping and social media, as well
as exploring sociological changes and looking at how
the growing “millennials’ culture” is influencing luxury
strategies and communications.
Highlights include:
• By 2026, the main luxury consumer will be a
millennial (as opposed to a Baby Boomer).
• Positivity is on the up – 15% believe they will
indulge themselves by spending more in 2016
(slightly higher than the 12% recorded in 2013).
• In 2015, just 15% of luxury consumers say they
downloaded a luxury brand app – a reminder to
businesses that success in mobile commerce will
require a multi-faceted approach.
WORLD LUXURY TRACKING 2016
World Luxury Tracking was launched in 2007 by the International Luxury Business Association and Ipsos to offer a unique analysis of the expectations, attitudes and behaviours of the luxury market.
© Ipsos MORI © Ipsos MORI
Results from the study (carried out in an online
survey of journalists between November 2015-
January 2016) include:
• Chile and Uruguay came out on top for the best
current economic situation, while Argentina and
Cuba lead the perceptions of countries with the
best 12 month outlook
• In general, the present and future of the Pacific
Alliance countries’ economies - Chile, Colombia,
Peru and Mexico - received a more favourable
assessment than Atlantic states
• Venezuela’s economy is viewed with the greatest
concern and received the most negative outlook,
but there are also fears about Brazil, Central
America and the Caribbean
LATIN AMERICA: THE ECONOMIC SITUATION
A study of journalists and opinion leaders in 16 Latin American countries paints a very mixed picture of economic prospects in the region.
© Ipsos MORI © Ipsos MORI
India’s affluent audience – highly sought-after by brands – has
proved challenging for marketers to reach and engage
through traditional channels.
This Ipsos/Twitter study explores the world of the mass
affluent to help marketers gain a better understanding of their
personal values, attitudes, digital and social media habits, and
how they spend their money.
Highlights include:
• 74% are looking for environmentally friendly products.
• 46% engage with brands for latest news about
products and services.
• 75% say that affluence brings with it a "greater
responsibility“.
Download the report for more perspectives, including from
"affluentials" in Indonesia, Saudi Arabia and Singapore.
UNDERSTANDING INDIA’S AFFLUENTIALS
New research shows that 87% of the mass affluent in India are on Twitter and use it on a regular basis.
IPSOS MORI
OPINION
© Ipsos MORI
Finding the hidden purse
strings
Lucy Neiland from the
Ethnography Centre of
Excellence highlights the
importance of building better
relationships to retain customer
loyalty
6 mega trends in TV Oscar Wilde and media
buying
From real-time optimisation, to
storylines that progress across
different screens, Ipsos
Connect's Beckie Goodfield in
Mediatel examines the game-
changing developments for TV
and its advertising.
Andrew Green, global head of
audience measurement for
Ipsos Connect, echoes Oscar
Wilde in his latest blog on The
Picture of What You Should
Pay.
IPSOS MORI OPINION
© Ipsos MORI
Devolution: Hearts and
Minds
Ben Page writes in the
Municipal Journal that local
government faces a significant
challenge in raising public
interest in devolution.
Economy Matters: The
View From Here
What does the GP Patient
Survey tell us about
people with long term
mental health conditions?
Simon Atkinson, Ipsos' Chief
Knowledge Officer, blogs in the
Huffington Post on what the
latest Global @dvisor economic
data tells us about the state of
the global economy.
Rachel Burkitt looks at what the
GP Patient Survey (GPPS) data
reveals about patients reporting
a long-term mental health
condition.
IPSOS MORI OPINION
© Ipsos MORI
COP21: Putting the climate
agreement into action: do
the public support it?
Alexandra Palmqvist Aslaksen
and Darren Fleetwood look at
how salient an issue climate
change is for the public and
consider whether the UK
government has a public
mandate for taking forward the
Paris climate agreement.
Pity the Millennials : The
young aren’t revolting any
more
What does the GP Patient
Survey tell us about
people with long term
mental health conditions?
Ben Page, writing in The
Pavlovic Today, looks at
generational differences to find
out that the young aren’t
revolting any more.
Rachel Burkitt looks at what the
GP Patient Survey (GPPS) data
reveals about patients reporting
a long-term mental health
condition.
IPSOS MORI OPINION
For more details on any of the studies featured
here, please contact your usual account
representative or alternatively get in touch with:
James Randall Managing Director, Key Clients
www.ipsos-mori.com
All methodological details are available via the
website links
CONTACT