ipsos mori political monitor: january 2013

POLITICAL MONITOR January 2013

Contacts:

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Voting Intentions

3 Voting Intention: all giving an opinion vs. those “certain to vote”

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Conservative lead = -14

All giving a voting intention: 82%

How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

31%

45%

9%

7% 8%

Base: 1,015 British adults 18+, 12th -14th January 2013, all certain to vote = 628

All certain to vote: 58%

Conservative lead = -13

30%

43%

8%

9% 10%

Labour

Conservative

Lib Dem

UKIP

Other

4

0

10

20

30

40

50

Feb-03 A

pr-03 Jun-03 A

ug-03 O

ct-03 D

ec-03 Feb-04 A

pr-04 Jun-04 A

ug-04 O

ct-04 D

ec-04 Feb-05 A

pr-05 Jun-05 A

ug-05 O

ct-05 D

ec-05 Feb-06 A

pr-06 Jun-06 A

ug-06 O

ct-06 D

ec-06 Feb-07 A

pr-07 Jun-07 A

ug-07 O

ct-07 D

ec-07 Feb-08 A

pr-08 Jun-08 A

ug-08 O

ct-08 D

ec-08 Feb-09 A

pr-09 Jun-09 A

ug-09 O

ct-09 D

ec-09 Feb-10 A

pr-10 Jun-10 A

ug-10 O

ct-10 D

ec-10 Feb-11 A

pr-11 Jun-11 A

ug-11 O

ct-11 D

ec-11 Feb-12 A

pr-12 Jun-12 A

ug-12 O

ct-12 D

ec-12

43%

Howard elected (Nov 03)

2005 General Election

Cameron elected (Dec 05)

Brown as PM (Jun 07)

8%

30%

2010 General Election

Base: c. 1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Voting Intentions January ‘03 – January ‘13 (all certain to vote) How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

Satisfaction with the Coalition and Party Leaders

6

59

61

48

64

34

28

36

27

Net satisfaction

Net change from Dec’

2012

-25 -6

-33 n/c

-12 -9

-37 -4

Base: 1,015 British adults 18+, 12th - 14th January 2013

Satisfaction with leaders and the Government How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country /doing his job as Prime Minister /Deputy Prime Minister/Leader of the Labour Party?


David Cameron

The Government

Nick Clegg

Ed Miliband

% Satisfied

% Dissatisfied

7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Aug-07

Sep-07

Oct-07

Nov-07

Dec-07

Jan-08 Feb-08 M

ar-08 A

pr-08 M

ay-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 A

ug-08 S

ep-08 O

ct-08 N

ov-08 D

ec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 M

ar-09 A

pr-09 M


ug-09 S

ep-09 O

ct-09 N

ov-09 D


ar-10 A

pr-10 M


ug-10 S

ep-10 O

ct-10 N

ov-10 D


ar-11 A

pr-11 M


ug-11 S

ep-11 O

ct-11 N

ov-11 D


ar-12 A

pr-12 M


ug-12 S

ep-12 O

ct-12 N

ov-12 D

ec-12 Jan-13

28%

% s

atis

fied

Cameron

Clegg

Campbell

Clegg elected (Jan 08)

General Election

34% Miliband

36%

Brown

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country / doing his job as … ?

Satisfaction with Party leaders August ‘07 – January ‘13

8

Net

sat

isfa

ctio

n

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister?

Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers

THATCHER

BLAIR MAJOR BROWN

CAMERON


Number of months from becoming Prime Minister

Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone

9


David Cameron (satisfaction) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party/ as Prime Minister?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


Satisfied

Dissatisfied

January 2006 – January 2013 January 2013

Satisfied Don’t know

Dissatisfied

34%

59%

6%

Net = -25


10

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

100

Base: 265 Conservative supporters 18+, 12th - 14th January 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

David Cameron (satisfaction among Tory supporters) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party/ as Prime Minister?

75%

20%

5% Satisfied

Don’t know

Dissatisfied

Net = +55 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone


11


Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader

HAGUE (1997-2001) DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003)

Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2013) How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?

CAMERON (2005-2010)

BLAIR (1994-1997)

MILIBAND (2010-2012)

HOWARD (2003-2005)


Net

sat

isfa

ctio

n

12 Ed Miliband (satisfaction)

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?



10

20

30

40

50

60 Dissatisfied

Satisfied

October 2010 – January 2013 January 2013


Dissatisfied

36%

48%

16%

Net = -12

13

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Base: 368 Labour supporters 18+, 12th-14th January 2013

Ed Miliband (satisfaction among Labour supporters) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?

January 2013

Net = +18


Dissatisfied


Dissatisfied

Satisfied

October 2010 – January 2013

53% 35%

11%

14 Nick Clegg (satisfaction) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/ as Deputy Prime Minister?



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


Dissatisfied

Satisfied


28%

61%

11%


Dissatisfied Net = -33

15

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

100

*Please note the small base size

Base: 82 Liberal Democrat supporters 18+, 12th -14th January 2013

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

January 2013

42%

49%

9% Satisfied Don’t know

Dissatisfied

Net = -7

Nick Clegg (satisfaction among Lib Dem supporters*) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/ as Deputy Prime Minister?

January 2008 – January 2013



Economic Optimism

17 Economic Optimism Index Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?



Improve

Stay the same Get worse 21%

33%

43%

3% Improve

Don’t know

Get worse Stay the same

January 2013

EOI = -22

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Jan-

04

Aug

-04

Mar

-05

Oct

-05

May

-06

Dec

-06

Jul-0

7

Feb-

08

Sep

-08

Apr

-09

Nov

-09

Jun-

10

Jan-

11

Aug

-11

Mar

-12

Oct

-12

18

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Feb-

97

May

-97

Aug

-97

Nov

-97

Feb-

98

May

-98

Aug

-98

Nov

-98

Feb-

99

May

-99

Aug

-99

Nov

-99

Feb-

00

May

-00

Aug

-00

Nov

-00

Feb-

01

May

-01

Aug

-01

Nov

-01

Feb-

02

May

-02

Aug

-02

Nov

-02

Feb-

03

May

-03

Aug

-03

Nov

-03

Feb-

04

May

-04

Aug

-04

Nov

-04

Feb-

05

May

-05

Aug

-05

Nov

-05

Feb-

06

May

-06

Aug

-06

Nov

-06

Feb-

07

May

-07

Aug

-07

Nov

-07

Feb-

08

May

-08

Aug

-08

Nov

-08

Feb-

09

May

-09

Aug

-09

Nov

-09

Feb-

10

May

-10

Aug

-10

Nov

-10

Feb-

11

May

-11

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Feb-

12

May

-12

Aug

-12

Nov

-12

Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month

+28

-46 -56 -48

+23

The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index In

dex

(get

bet

ter m

inus

get

wor

se)

-64


-6

-22

ipsos mori political monitor: january 2013

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