ipsos mori political monitor: march 2014

POLITICAL MONITOR

March 2014

Contacts:

[email protected]

[email protected]

020 7347 3000

Voting Intentions

3 Voting Intention: all giving an opinion vs. those

“certain to vote”

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Conservative lead = -8

All giving a voting intention: 79%

How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

29%

37%

12%

11%

11%

Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 8th -12th March 2014, all certain to vote = 582

Labour

Conservative

Lib Dem

UKIP

Other

All certain to vote: 53%

Conservative lead = -3

32%

35%

13%

11%

9%

4

0

10

20

30

40

50

Sep

-03

Dec-0

3

Ma

r-04

Ju

n-0

4

Sep

-04

Dec-0

4

Ma

r-05

Ju

n-0

5

Sep

-05

Dec-0

5

Ma

r-06

Ju

n-0

6

Sep

-06

Dec-0

6

Ma

r-07

Ju

n-0

7

Sep

-07

Dec-0

7

Ma

r-08

Ju

n-0

8

Sep

-08

Dec-0

8

Ma

r-09

Ju

n-0

9

Sep

-09

Dec-0

9

Ma

r-10

Ju

n-1

0

Sep

-10

Dec-1

0

Ma

r-11

Ju

n-1

1

Sep

-11

Dec-1

1

Ma

r-12

Ju

n-1

2

Sep

-12

Dec-1

2

Ma

r-13

Ju

n-1

3

Sep

-13

Dec-1

3

Ma

r-14

35%

Howard elected (Nov 03)

2005 General Election

Cameron elected (Dec 05)

Brown as PM (Jun 07)

13%

32%


Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Voting Intentions September ‘03 – March ‘14

(all certain to vote)

How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

11%

Satisfaction with the Coalition

and Party Leaders

6

56

60

53

41

59

37

29

32

31

33

Net satisfaction

Swing from February

2014

-19 -0.5

-31 +4

-21 n/c

-10 n/c

-26 +0.5

Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 8th – 12th March 2014. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and %

“dissatisfied”

Satisfaction with leaders and the Government

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country /doing his job as Prime Minister

/Deputy Prime Minister/Leader of the Labour Party/UKIP?

David Cameron

The Government

Nick Clegg

Ed Miliband

% Satisfied

% Dissatisfied

Nigel Farage


7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Se

p-0

7O

ct-0

7N

ov-0

7D

ec-0

7Ja

n-0

8F

eb

-08

Ma

r-08

Ap

r-08

Ma

y-0

8Ju

n-0

8Ju

l-08

Au

g-0

8S

ep-0

8O

ct-0

8N

ov-0

8D

ec-0

8Ja

n-0

9F

eb-0

9M

ar-0

9A

pr-0

9M

ay-0

9Ju

n-0

9Ju

l-09

Au

g-0

9S

ep

-09

Oct-0

9N

ov-0

9D

ec-0

9Ja

n-1

0F

eb

-10

Ma

r-10

Ap

r-10

Ma

y-1

0Ju

n-1

0Ju

l-10

Au

g-1

0S

ep

-10

Oct-1

0N

ov-1

0D

ec-1

0Ja

n-1

1F

eb

-11

Ma

r-11

Ap

r-11

May-1

1Ju

n-1

1Ju

l-11

Au

g-1

1S

ep

-11

Oct-1

1N

ov-1

1D

ec-1

1Ja

n-1

2F

eb

-12

Mar-1

2A

pr-1

2M

ay-1

2Ju

n-1

2Ju

l-12

Au

g-1

2S

ep

-12

Oct-1

2N

ov-1

2D

ec-1

2Jan-1

3F

eb

-13

Ma

r-13

Ap

r-13

Ma

y-1

3Ju

n-1

3Ju

l-13

Au

g-1

3S

ep

-13

Oct-1

3N

ov-1

3D

ec-1

3Ja

n-1

4F

eb

-14

Ma

r-14

29%

% s

ati

sfi

ed

Cameron

Clegg

Campbell

Clegg elected (Jan 08)

General Election

37%

Miliband

32%

Brown

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country / doing his job as … ?

Satisfaction with Party leaders September ‘07 – March ‘14

Farage

31%

8

Net

sati

sfa

cti

on

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister?

Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers

THATCHER

BLAIR MAJOR

BROWN

CAMERON


Number of months from becoming Prime Minister

Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone

9


David Cameron (satisfaction)

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative

Party/ as Prime Minister?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


Satisfied

Dissatisfied

March 2006 – March 2014 March 2014

Satisfied Don’t know

Dissatisfied

Net = -19

37%

56%

8%

Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 8th – 12th March 2014

10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Base: 238 Conservative supporters 18+, 8th -12th March 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

David Cameron

(satisfaction among Tory supporters)

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative

Party/ as Prime Minister?

81%

18%

2% Satisfied

Don’t know

Dissatisfied

Net = +63 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone


11


Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader

HAGUE (1997-2001) DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003)

Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders

(1994 – 2014)

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?

CAMERON (2005-2010)

BLAIR (1994-1997)

MILIBAND (2010-2014)

HOWARD

(2003-2005)


Net

sati

sfa

cti

on

12

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Ed Miliband (satisfaction)

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?


Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 8th -12th March 2014

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

October 2010 – March 2014 March 2014


Dissatisfied

32%

53%

15%

Net = -21

13

51%

37%

12%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Base: 285 Labour supporters 18+, 8th – 12th March 2014

Ed Miliband

(satisfaction among Labour supporters)

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?

March 2014

Net = +14


Dissatisfied


Dissatisfied

Satisfied

October 2010 – March 2014

14 Nick Clegg (satisfaction)

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/

as Deputy Prime Minister?


Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 8th -12th March 2014

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


Dissatisfied

Satisfied


29%

60%

12%


Dissatisfied

Net = -31

15

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Base: 97 Liberal Democrat supporters 18+, 8th -12th March 2014. N.B. small base size indicative only

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

March 2014

62%

30%

8% Satisfied

Don’t know

Dissatisfied

Net = +32

Nick Clegg

(satisfaction among Lib Dem supporters)

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/

as Deputy Prime Minister?

March 2008 – March 2014



16

31%

41%

28%

Nigel Farage (satisfaction)

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nigel Farage is doing his job as leader of UKIP, the UK

Independence Party?


Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 95 UKIP supporters, 8th -12th March 2014. N.B. small base size indicative only

All


Dissatisfied

82%

11%

7%

UKIP supporters


Dissatisfied

Net = -10 Net = +71

The economy

18

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Sep

-04

De

c-0

4M

ar-

05

Ju

n-0

5S

ep

-05

Dec-0

5M

ar-

06

Ju

n-0

6S

ep

-06

Dec-0

6M

ar-

07

Ju

n-0

7S

ep

-07

Dec-0

7M

ar-

08

Ju

n-0

8S

ep

-08

Dec-0

8M

ar-

09

Ju

n-0

9S

ep

-09

Dec-0

9M

ar-

10

Ju

n-1

0S

ep

-10

De

c-1

0M

ar-

11

Ju

n-1

1S

ep

-11

Dec-1

1M

ar-

12

Ju

n-1

2S

ep

-12

Dec-1

2M

ar-

13

Ju

n-1

3S

ep

-13

Dec-1

3M

ar-

14

Economic Optimism Index

Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse

over the next 12 months?



Improve

Stay the same Get worse Improve

Don’t know

Get worse

Stay the same

March 2014

EOI = +23

48%

24%

25%

3%

19

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Ju

n-9

7S

ep

-97

De

c-9

7M

ar-

98

Ju

n-9

8S

ep

-98

De

c-9

8M

ar-

99

Ju

n-9

9S

ep

-99

De

c-9

9M

ar-

00

Ju

n-0

0S

ep

-00

De

c-0

0M

ar-

01

Ju

n-0

1S

ep

-01

De

c-0

1M

ar-

02

Ju

n-0

2S

ep

-02

De

c-0

2M

ar-

03

Ju

n-0

3S

ep

-03

De

c-0

3M

ar-

04

Ju

n-0

4S

ep

-04

De

c-0

4M

ar-

05

Ju

n-0

5S

ep

-05

De

c-0

5M

ar-

06

Ju

n-0

6S

ep

-06

De

c-0

6M

ar-

07

Ju

n-0

7S

ep-0

7D

ec-0

7M

ar-

08

Ju

n-0

8S

ep-0

8D

ec-0

8M

ar-

09

Ju

n-0

9S

ep-0

9D

ec-0

9M

ar-

10

Ju

n-1

0S

ep-1

0D

ec-1

0M

ar-

11

Ju

n-1

1S

ep

-11

De

c-1

1M

ar-

12

Ju

n-1

2S

ep

-12

De

c-1

2M

ar-

13

Ju

n-1

3S

ep

-13

De

c-1

3M

ar-

14

Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse

over the next 12 months?

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

+28

-46

-56 -48

+23

The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index

Ind

ex

(g

et

be

tte

r m

inu

s g

et

wo

rse)

-64


+23

Parties’ policies on the economy

21

1%

2%

2%

12%

5%

6%

27%

32%

22%

25%

27%

35%

Taxation

Unemployment

Managing the economy

Conservative party Labour party Liberal Democrat party UKIP

Which party has the best policies on … ?

+13

-5

-2

Conservative lead

over Labour

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 8th – 12th March 2014

22 Which party has the best policies on managing

the economy? Trend

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c.1,000 British adults each time

Labour Conservative Lib Dem UKIP

2 2 0

10

20

30

40

50

Ju

n-9

9S

ep

-99

Dec-9

9M

ar-0

0Ju

n-0

0S

ep

-00

Dec-0

0M

ar-0

1Ju

n-0

1S

ep

-01

Dec-0

1M

ar-0

2Ju

n-0

2S

ep

-02

Dec-0

2M

ar-0

3Ju

n-0

3S

ep

-03

Dec-0

3M

ar-0

4Ju

n-0

4S

ep

-04

Dec-0

4M

ar-0

5Ju

n-0

5S

ep

-05

Dec-0

5M

ar-0

6Ju

n-0

6S

ep

-06

Dec-0

6M

ar-0

7Ju

n-0

7S

ep

-07

Dec-0

7M

ar-0

8Ju

n-0

8S

ep

-08

Dec-0

8M

ar-0

9Ju

n-0

9S

ep

-09

Dec-0

9M

ar-1

0Ju

n-1

0S

ep

-10

Dec-1

0M

ar-1

1Ju

n-1

1S

ep

-11

Dec-1

1M

ar-1

2Ju

n-1

2S

ep

-12

Dec-1

2M

ar-1

3Ju

n-1

3S

ep

-13

Dec-1

3M

ar-1

4




22%

6%

35%

2%

23 Which party has the best policies on

unemployment? Trend



2 0

10

20

30

40

50

Ju

n-9

9S

ep

-99

Dec-9

9M

ar-0

0Ju

n-0

0S

ep

-00

Dec-0

0M

ar-0

1Ju

n-0

1S

ep

-01

Dec-0

1M

ar-0

2Ju

n-0

2S

ep

-02

Dec-0

2M

ar-0

3Ju

n-0

3S

ep

-03

Dec-0

3M

ar-0

4Ju

n-0

4S

ep

-04

Dec-0

4M

ar-0

5Ju

n-0

5S

ep

-05

Dec-0

5M

ar-0

6Ju

n-0

6S

ep

-06

Dec-0

6M

ar-0

7Ju

n-0

7S

ep

-07

Dec-0

7M

ar-0

8Ju

n-0

8S

ep

-08

Dec-0

8M

ar-0

9Ju

n-0

9S

ep

-09

Dec-0

9M

ar-1

0Ju

n-1

0S

ep

-10

Dec-1

0M

ar-1

1Ju

n-1

1S

ep

-11

Dec-1

1M

ar-1

2Ju

n-1

2S

ep

-12

Dec-1

2M

ar-1

3Ju

n-1

3S

ep

-13

Dec-1

3M

ar-1

4




32%

5%

27%

2%

24 Which party has the best policies on taxation?

Trend



1 0

10

20

30

40

50

Ju

n-9

9S

ep

-99

Dec-9

9M

ar-0

0Ju

n-0

0S

ep

-00

Dec-0

0M

ar-0

1Ju

n-0

1S

ep

-01

Dec-0

1M

ar-0

2Ju

n-0

2S

ep

-02

Dec-0

2M

ar-0

3Ju

n-0

3S

ep

-03

Dec-0

3M

ar-0

4Ju

n-0

4S

ep

-04

Dec-0

4M

ar-0

5Ju

n-0

5S

ep

-05

Dec-0

5M

ar-0

6Ju

n-0

6S

ep

-06

Dec-0

6M

ar-0

7Ju

n-0

7S

ep

-07

Dec-0

7M

ar-0

8Ju

n-0

8S

ep

-08

Dec-0

8M

ar-0

9Ju

n-0

9S

ep

-09

Dec-0

9M

ar-1

0Ju

n-1

0S

ep

-10

Dec-1

0M

ar-1

1Ju

n-1

1S

ep

-11

Dec-1

1M

ar-1

2Ju

n-1

2S

ep

-12

Dec-1

2M

ar-1

3Ju

n-1

3S

ep

-13

Dec-1

3M

ar-1

4




27%

12%

25%

1%

Balls vs Osborne

Competence of the government

26 Osborne vs. Balls - trend

35

36

29

34 35

36

40 38

36

35

37 34

38

35

29

33

0

10

20

30

40

50

Ma

r-11

Apr-

11

Ma

y-1

1

Ju

n-1

1

Ju

l-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct-

11

Nov-1

1

Dec-1

1

Ja

n-1

2

Feb-1

2

Ma

r-12

Apr-

12

Ma

y-1

2

Ju

n-1

2

Ju

l-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct-

12

Nov-1

2

Dec-1

2

Ja

n-1

3

Feb-1

3

Ma

r-13

Apr-

13

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

n-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Aug

-13

Sep

-13

Oct-

13

Nov-1

3

Dec-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Feb-1

4

Ma

r-14

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each time Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Who do you think would make the most capable Chancellor, the Conservatives’ George Osborne or Labour’s Ed Balls?

Ed Balls

George Osborne

27 Is the government doing a good job?

Since it was elected in May 2010, do you think that the government has done a good job or a bad job at…?

44

15

35

32

47

36

48

77

56

60

46

55

% Good job %Bad job

Keeping

unemployment down

Managing the

economy

Handling taxation and

public expenditure

March

2014

October

2011

March

2014

October

2011

March

2014

October

2011

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 8th – 12th March 2014

28 Is the government doing a good job at raising

living standards?

Since it was elected in May 2010, do you think that the government has done a good job or a bad job at…?

30

19

73

59

73

12

% Good job %Bad job

Improving your

standard of living

Improving the standard

of living for poor people


Improving the standard

of living for rich people


29 Who deserves the credit for a growing economy?

As you may know, according to official statistics the UK economy grew by 1.8% in 2013. Which one or two of

the following do you think deserve most credit for the growth in the UK economy?


4%

7%

7%

15%

20%

25%

37%

The Liberal Democrats

The previous Labour government

The European Union

The Conservatives

The Coalition Government overall

The Bank of England

The state of the global economy


30 Who deserves the credit for raising the income

tax threshold?

As you may know, the amount people earn before they pay income tax has risen from £6,475 in 2010 to £10,000 from this April.

Who, if anyone, do you think deserves most credit for this policy, the Conservatives or Liberal Democrats?


33%

45%

Conservatives

Liberal Democrats


ipsos mori political monitor: march 2014

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