ipsos mori political monitor - october 2016

Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)

© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information

and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

1

Ipsos MORIOctober 2016 POLITICAL MONITOR

3Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public

47%

29%

6%

4%

7%7%

HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Base: 1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016 ; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends

vote in General Elections = 749. Headline voting intention is based on a method that would have given most accurate results in the 2015

GE.

Voting Intention

45%

32%

7%

4%7%

5%

ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTIONHEADLINE VOTING INTENTION

CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +13

CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +18

CONSERVATIVE

LABOUR

UKIP

GREEN

LIB DEM

OTHER


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Ap

r 03

Oct

03

Ap

r 04

Oct

04

Ap

r 05

Oct

05

Ap

r 06

Oct

06

Ap

r 07

Oct

07

Ap

r 08

Oct

08

Ap

r 09

Oct

09

Ap

r 10

Oct

10

Ap

r 11

Oct

11

Ap

r 12

Oct

12

Ap

r 13

Oct

13

Ap

r 14

Oct

14

Ap

r 15

Oct

15

Ap

r 16

Oct

16

2015 General Election

Miliband

elected

(Sept 10)

Corbyn

elected

(Sept 15)

May

as PM

(July 16)

HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?


Base: c. 700 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote

and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections

Headline voting intention: April ‘03 – Oct ‘16

2005 General Election 2010 General Election

Cameron

elected

(Dec 05)

Brown

as PM

(June 07)

CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM


SATISFACTION WITH THE

GOVERNMENT AND

PARTY LEADERS


22%

34%

44%

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/HER JOB

AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS ?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016 . Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied

Satisfaction with leaders and the Government

37%

53%

9%

-5.5%swing from September

2016

+3.5%swing from September

2016

-0.5%swing from September2016

- 1.5%swing from September

2016

+16 Net -24 Net -12 Net -16 Net

SATISFIED 48% SATISFIED 31% SATISFIED 22% SATISFIED 37%

DISSATISFIED 32% DISSATISFIED 55% DISSATISFIED 34% 3DISSATISFIED 53%

48%

32%

19%31%

55%

15%

Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn Tim Farron The Government


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS … ?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month

Satisfaction with Party leaders Sept 2015 – October’16

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Jan

16

Feb

16

Mar

16

Ap

r 16

May 1

6

Ju

n 1

6

Ju

l 16

Au

g 1

6

Sep

16

Oct

16

MAY CORBYN FARRON

48%

31%

22%


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME

MINISTER?


Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers

MAY CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER

Net

sati

sfact

ion

NUMBER OF MONTHS FROM BECOMING PRIME MINISTER

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

May


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE …

PARTY?


Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2016)

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader

Net

sati

sfact

ion

HOWARD BLAIR (94-97) DUNCAN SMITH (01-03) MILIBAND (10-15) CAMERON (05-10) HAGUE (97-01) CORBYN (15-present)


ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME

MINISTER?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016

Theresa May (satisfaction)

48%

32%

19%

October 2016 September 2016

SATISFIED 48%

DISSATISFIED 32%

DON’T KNOW 19%

Net = +16

54%

27%

19%

SATISFIED 54%

DISSATISFIED 27%

DON’T KNOW 19%

Net = +27


ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME

MINISTER?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 376 Conservative supporters 18+ 14th – 17th October 2016 and 345 Conservative supporters 18+ 10th – 14th September

Theresa May (satisfaction amongst Conservative supporters

80%

8%

12%

October 2016 September 2016

SATISFIED 80%

DISSATISFIED 8%

DON’T KNOW 12%

Net = +72

81%

8%

11%

SATISFIED 81%

DISSATISFIED 6%

DON’T KNOW 11%

Net = +75


31%

55%

15%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

rl-1

6

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

SATISFIED 31%

DISSATISFIED 55%

DON’T KNOW 15%

Net = -24

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF

THE LABOUR PARTY?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016

Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)

October 2016 September 2015 – October 2016

Satisfied

Dissatisfied


54%32%

14%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

rl-1

6

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

SATISFIED 54%

DISSATISFIED 32%

DON’T KNOW 14%

Net = +22

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF

THE LABOUR PARTY?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 274 Labour supporters 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016

Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction amongst Labour supporters)


Satisfied

Dissatisfied


22%

34%

44%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

rl-1

6

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

SATISFIED 22%

DISSATISFIED 34%

DON’T KNOW 44%

Net = -12

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE

LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?


Tim Farron (satisfaction)


Satisfied

Dissatisfied


ECONOMIC

OPTIMISM


24%

17%53%

5%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Sep

-04

Mar-

05

Sep

-05

Ap

r-06

No

v-0

6

Jul-

07

Feb

-08

Au

g-0

8

Feb

-09

Au

g-0

9

Feb

-10

Sep

-10

Mar-

11

Sep

-11

Mar-

12

Sep

-12

Mar-

13

Sep

-13

Mar-

14

Sep

-14

Mar-

15

Oct

-15

Ap

rl-1

6

Oct

-16

IMPROVE 24%

STAY THE SAME 17%

GET WORSE 53%

DON’T KNOW 5%

EOI = -29

DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE

SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?


Economic Optimism Index

October 2016


DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE

SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?


The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Feb

1997

Jun

1997

Oct

1997

Feb

1998

Jun

1998

Oct

1998

Feb

1999

Jun

1999

Oct

1999

Feb

2000

Jun

2000

Oct

2000

Feb

2001

Jun

2001

Oct

2001

Feb

2002

Jun

2002

Oct

2002

Feb

2003

Jun

2003

Oct

2003

Feb

2004

Jun

2004

Oct

2004

Feb

2005

Jun

2005

Oct

2005

Feb

2006

Jun

2006

Oct

2006

Feb

2007

Jun

2007

Oct

2007

Feb

2008

Jun

2008

Oct

2008

Feb

2009

Jun

2009

Oct

2009

Feb

2010

Jun

2010

Oct

2010

Feb

2011

Jun

2011

Oct

2011

Feb

2012

Jun

2012

Oct

2012

Feb

2013

Jun

2013

Oct

2013

Feb

2014

Jun

2014

Oct

2014

Feb

2015

Jun

2015

Oct

2015

Feb

2016

Jun

2016

Oct

2016

-29


Impact of Brexit


NOW THAT BRITAIN HAS VOTED TO LEAVE THE EU, TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU THINK IT WILL BE

BETTER OR WORSE FOR YOUR OWN STANDARD OF LIVING, OR WILL IT MAKE NO DIFFERENCE?

ASKED IN MAY AS:

IF BRITAIN VOTES TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION, TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU THINK IT WOULD

BE BETTER OR WORSE FOR EACH OF THE FOLLOWING, OR WOULD IT MAKE NO DIFFERENCE?


Brexit and standard of living

1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016

7

9

13

11

12

11

46

39

24

19

24

24

10

12

25

7

4

4

May-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

A lot better A little better Make no difference

A little worse A lot worse Don't know


18

47

30

514

55

26

5

QA: RECENTLY THE VALUE OF THE BRITISH POUND HAS DECREASED COMPARED WITH OTHER

CURRENCIES. (QB INCLUDES: THIS IS LIKELY TO MEAN IMPORTS TO BRITAIN FROM OTHER

COUNTRIES WILL BECOME MORE EXPENSIVE, WHILE BRITISH EXPORTS TO OTHER COUNTRIES WILL

BE MORE COMPETITIVE). ON BALANCE, DO YOU THINK THE FALL IN THE POUND IS A GOOD THING

OR A BAD THING FOR BRITAIN, OR DOES IT MAKE NO DIFFERENCE?


The depreciation of the Pound (Split samples)

QA QB

GOOD THING BAD THING MAKES NO DIFFERENCE DON’T KNOW


45%

39%

4%

7%5%

AND AS YOU MAY KNOW THERE HAS BEEN MUCH DISCUSSION ON WHAT BRITAIN’S RELATIONSHIP WITH THE

EUROPEAN UNION SHOULD BE AFTER IT LEAVES. SOME SAY BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING ACCESS TO

THE EUROPEAN SINGLE MARKET WHILE OTHERS THINK BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING CONTROL OVER

IMMIGRATION. WHAT DO YOU THINK BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE?


Should Britain prioritise single market access or control of

immigration in its future relationship with the EU?

BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE

HAVING ACCESS TO THE

EUROPEAN SINGLE MARKET

BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE

HAVING CONTROL OVER

IMMIGRATION NEITHER PRIORITISE HAVING BOTH DON’T KNOW







BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING ACCESS TO THE


BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING CONTROL OVER

IMMIGRATION

18-34

35-54

55+

Male

Female

ABC1

C2DE

1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016 *all subgroups have minimum base size of 100

24%

54%

34%

38%

50%

35%

43%

29%

51%

57%

50%

32%

50%

39%









BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING ACCESS TO THE


BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING CONTROL OVER

IMMIGRATION

Scotland

England

North England

Midlands & Wales

London

Rest of South

Degree or higher

Other qualifications

No qualifications

Conservative

Labour

1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016 *all subgroups have minimum base size of 100

61%

42%

42%

42%

55%

39%

67%

40%

26%

38%

58%

22%

41%

38%

46%

31%

41%

18%

45%

53%

28%

45%




Party Image


18%

34%

15%

29%

18%

42%

45%

25%

30%

11%

18%

11%

29%

69%

23%

41%

21%

33%

26%

56%

59%

26%

48%

47%

38%

53%

37%

53%

Keeps its promises

Understands the problems facing Britain

Has a good team of leaders

Looks after the interests of people like me

Fit to govern

Concerned about people in real need

Different to the other parties

I AM GOING TO READ OUT SOME THINGS BOTH FAVOURABLE AND UNFAVOURABLE THAT HAVE BEEN SAID

ABOUT VARIOUS POLITICAL PARTIES. WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO…


CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP LIBERAL DEMOCRATS


Positive attributes of party image


55%

35%

9%

46%

61%

64%

57%

55%

57%

82%

38%

61%

65%

52%

27%

45%

Will promise anything to win votes

Divided

Extreme

Out of date




CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP LIBERAL DEMOCRATS


Negative attributes of party image


30%

48%

49%

68%

38%

29%

37%

56%

32%

48%

62%

26%

48%

47%

65%

52%

27%

38%

53%

37%

45%

53%

Keeps its promises




Divided

Extreme


Fit to govern


Out of date





OCTOBER 2016 SEPTEMBER 2015


Conservative party image


26%

51%

27%

60%

75%

36%

43%

35%

61%

55%

62%

23%

41%

21%

57%

82%

38%

33%

26%

56%

61%

59%

Keeps its promises




Divided

Extreme


Fit to govern


Out of date





Labour party image



21%

43%

18%

60%

52%

69%

27%

16%

39%

48%

76%

25%

30%

11%

61%

64%

57%

18%

11%

29%

55%

69%

Keeps its promises




Divided

Extreme


Fit to govern


Out of date




Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor483 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016

UKIP party image



19%

46%

16%

59%

50%

12%

33%

17%

55%

53%

55%

18%

34%

15%

55%

35%

9%

29%

18%

42%

46%

45%

Keeps its promises




Divided

Extreme


Fit to govern


Out of date




Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor533 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016

Liberal Democrats party image


Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)

© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information

and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

31

October 2016POLITICAL MONITOR

ipsos mori political monitor - october 2016

News & Politics