ipsos mori political monitor - august 2014
DESCRIPTION
The Ipsos MORI Political Monitor for August shows that support for the Conservatives and Labour is tied at 33% if there were a General Election tomorrow, the first time since October 2013. All the parties’ vote shares have changed little from last month, with the Liberal Democrats down one point to 7% and UKIP up one to 13%.TRANSCRIPT
Voting Intentions
3 Voting Intention: all giving an opinion vs. those
“certain to vote”
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Conservative lead = -2
All giving a voting intention: 83%
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
33%
35%
8%
11%
13%
Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 9th -11th August 2014, all certain to vote = 589
Labour
Conservative
Lib Dem
UKIP
Other
All certain to vote: 55%
Conservative lead = 0
33%
33%
7%
13%
14%
4
33%
7%
33%
13%
0
10
20
30
40
50
Nov-0
3
Feb-0
4
Ma
y-0
4
Aug
-04
Nov-0
4
Feb-0
5
Ma
y-0
5
Aug
-05
Nov-0
5
Feb-0
6
Ma
y-0
6
Aug
-06
Nov-0
6
Feb-0
7
Ma
y-0
7
Aug
-07
Nov-0
7
Feb-0
8
Ma
y-0
8
Aug
-08
Nov-0
8
Fe
b-0
9
Ma
y-0
9
Aug
-09
No
v-0
9
Feb-1
0
Ma
y-1
0
Aug
-10
Nov-1
0
Feb-1
1
Ma
y-1
1
Aug
-11
Nov-1
1
Feb-1
2
Ma
y-1
2
Aug
-12
Nov-1
2
Feb-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Aug
-13
Nov-1
3
Feb-1
4
Ma
y-1
4
Aug
-14
Howard elected (Nov
03)
2005 General Election
Cameron elected
(Dec 05)
Brown as PM (Jun 07)
2010 General Election
Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through August 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Voting Intentions November ‘03 – August ‘14
(all certain to vote)
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
Satisfaction with the Coalition
and Party Leaders
6
54
64
58
43
55
38
26
29
39
37
Net Satisfaction
Swing from July 2014
-16 +1.5
-38 +2
-29 +2
-4 +1.5
-18 +4
Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 9th – 11th August 2014. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and %
“dissatisfied”
Satisfaction with leaders and the Government
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country /doing his job as Prime Minister
/Deputy Prime Minister/Leader of the Labour Party/UKIP?
David Cameron
The Government
Nick Clegg
Ed Miliband
% Satisfied
% Dissatisfied
Nigel Farage
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan-0
8F
eb-0
8M
ar-0
8A
pr-0
8M
ay-0
8Ju
n-0
8Ju
l-08
Au
g-0
8S
ep
-08
Oct-0
8N
ov-0
8D
ec-0
8Ja
n-0
9F
eb
-09
Ma
r-09
Ap
r-09
Ma
y-0
9Ju
n-0
9Ju
l-09
Au
g-0
9S
ep
-09
Oct-0
9N
ov-0
9D
ec-0
9Ja
n-1
0F
eb
-10
Mar-1
0A
pr-1
0M
ay-1
0Jun-1
0Ju
l-10
Au
g-1
0S
ep
-10
Oct-1
0N
ov-1
0D
ec-1
0Ja
n-1
1F
eb
-11
Ma
r-11
Ap
r-11
Ma
y-1
1Ju
n-1
1Ju
l-11
Au
g-1
1S
ep
-11
Oct-1
1N
ov-1
1D
ec-1
1Ja
n-1
2F
eb
-12
Ma
r-12
Ap
r-12
Ma
y-1
2Ju
n-1
2Jul-1
2A
ug-1
2S
ep-1
2O
ct-1
2N
ov-1
2D
ec-1
2Ja
n-1
3F
eb
-13
Ma
r-13
Ap
r-13
Ma
y-1
3Ju
n-1
3Ju
l-13
Au
g-1
3S
ep
-13
Oct-1
3N
ov-1
3D
ec-1
3Ja
n-1
4F
eb
-14
Ma
r-14
Ap
r-14
Ma
y-1
4Ju
n-1
4Ju
l-14
Au
g-1
4
26%
% s
ati
sfi
ed
Cameron
Clegg
Clegg elected (Jan 08)
General Election
38%
Miliband 29%
Brown
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country / doing his job as … ?
Satisfaction with Party leaders January ‘08 – August ‘14
Farage 39%
8
Net
sati
sfa
cti
on
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister?
Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers
THATCHER
BLAIR MAJOR
BROWN
CAMERON
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from becoming Prime Minister
Note: Data collected prior to August 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from August 2008 was via telephone
9
38%
54%
8%
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
David Cameron (satisfaction)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative
Party/ as Prime Minister?
Note: Data collected prior to August 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from August 2008 was via telephone
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
August 2014
Satisfied Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = -16
Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 9th – 11th August 2014
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
August 2006 – August 2014
10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Base: 258 Conservative supporters 18+, 9th -11th August 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
David Cameron
(satisfaction among Tory supporters)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative
Party/ as Prime Minister?
74%
20%
5% Satisfied
Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = +54 Note: Data collected prior to August 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from August 2008 was via telephone
August 2006 – August 2014 August 2014
11
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader
HAGUE (1997-2001) DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003)
Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders
(1994 – 2014)
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?
CAMERON (2005-2010)
BLAIR (1994-1997)
MILIBAND (2010-2014)
HOWARD
(2003-2005)
Note: Data collected prior to August 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from August 2008 was via telephone
Net
sati
sfa
cti
on
12
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Ed Miliband (satisfaction)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 9th -11th August 2014
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
October 2010 – August 2014 August 2014
Satisfied Don’t know
Dissatisfied
29%
58%
13%
Net = -29
13
50%
41%
9%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Base: 296 Labour supporters 18+, 9th – 11th August 2014
Ed Miliband
(satisfaction among Labour supporters)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?
August 2014
Net = +9
Satisfied Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
November 2010 – August 2014
14 Nick Clegg (satisfaction)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/
as Deputy Prime Minister?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 9th -11th August 2014
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Note: Data collected prior to August 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from August 2008 was via telephone
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
August 2008 – August 2014 August 2014
26%
64%
11%
Satisfied Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = -38
15
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Base: 64 Liberal Democrat supporters 18+, 9th -11th August 2014. N.B. small base size indicative only
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
August 2014
44%
45%
11% Satisfied
Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = -1
Nick Clegg
(satisfaction among Lib Dem supporters)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/
as Deputy Prime Minister?
August 2008 – August 2014
Note: Data collected prior to August 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from August 2008 was via telephone
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
16
39%
43%
18%
Nigel Farage (satisfaction)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nigel Farage is doing his job as leader of UKIP, the UK
Independence Party?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 9th -11th August 2014
All
Satisfied Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = -4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
March 2013 – August 2014
17
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nigel Farage is doing his job as leader of UKIP, the UK
Independence Party?
Nigel Farage
(satisfaction among UKIP supporters)
Base: 99 UKIP supporters, 9th -11th August 2014. N.B. small base size indicative only
92%
7% 1%
UKIP supporters
Satisfied
Don’t know Dissatisfied
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
March 2013 – August 2014
Net = +85
Alternative Conservative
leaders?
19
29%
38%
10%
12%
11%
Hypothetical voting intention with different
Conservative Leaders
If Boris Johnson/Theresa May/ George Osborne…were leader of the Conservative Party, Ed Miliband leader of the Labour Party and Nick
Clegg leader of the Liberal Democrat Party, how would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? Would you vote for...
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 9th – 11th August 2014. Figures are based on all voters and exclude those who are undecided,
would not vote or refused.
Boris Johnson
Theresa May
George Osborne
Conservative Lib Dem UKIP Other Labour
Conservative lead = +5
Conservative lead = -4
Conservative lead = -9
39%
34%
8%
9%
10%
32%
36%
10%
12%
10%
20 Potential Conservative vote share under different
leaders- all voters
If Boris Johnson/Theresa May/ George Osborne…were leader of the Conservative Party, Ed Miliband leader of the Labour Party and Nick
Clegg leader of the Liberal Democrat Party, how would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? Would you vote for...
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 9th – 11th August 2014
Current
Situation
Boris
Johnson
Theresa
May
George
Osborne 29%
32%
39%
33%