ipsos mori political monitor: june 2016 - voting intention

Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)

© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information

and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

1

Ipsos MORIJune 2016 POLITICAL MONITOR

3Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public

19%

32%

49%38%

44%

17%

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOB

AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS / LEADER OF

UKIP?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Base: 1,257 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th June 2016 When asked about Nigel Farage and Tim Farron the sample was split sampled with 634 and 623

British adults 18+ asked about each respectively. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied

Satisfaction with leaders and the Government

32%

59%

9%

+3.5%swing from May 2016

-3%swing from May 2016

-0.5%swing from May 2016

-1%swing from May 2016

+2.5%swing from May 2016

-23 Net -25 Net -6 Net -13 Net -27 Net

SATISFIED 35% SATISFIED 27% SATISFIED 38% SATISFIED 19% SATISFIED 32%

DISSATISFIED 58% DISSATISFIED 52% DISSATISFIED 44% DISSATISFIED 32% DISSATISFIED 59%

35%

58%

7%

27%

52%

21%

David Cameron Jeremy Corbyn Nigel Farage Tim Farron The Government


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS

JOB AS … ?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month

Satisfaction with Party leaders May 2010 – June’16

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2010

2010

2010

2010

2011

2011

2011

2011

2011

2011

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2013

2013

2013

2013

2013

2013

2014

2014

2014

2014

2014

2014

2015

2015

2015

2015

2015

2015

2016

2016

2016

CAMERON FARAGE CORBYN FARRON

35%

38%

27%

19%


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?


Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers

CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER

Net

sati

sfact

ion

NUMBER OF MONTHS FROM BECOMING PRIME MINISTER

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE …

PARTY?


Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2016)


Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader

Net

sati

sfact

ion

HOWARD BLAIR (94-97) DUNCAN SMITH (01-03) MILIBAND (10-15) CAMERON (05-10) HAGUE (97-01) CORBYN (15-present)


ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF

THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY / AS PRIME MINISTER?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,257 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th June 2016

David Cameron (satisfaction)

35%

58%

7%

June 2016 May 2006 –June 2016

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

May-0

6

Oct

-06

Jun

-07

Dec-

07

May-0

8

Oct

-08

Mar-

09

Au

g-0

9

Jan

-10

Jun

-10

Dec-

10

May-1

1

Oct

-11

Mar-

12

Au

g-1

2

Jan

-13

Jun

-13

No

v-1

3

Ap

r-14

Sep

-14

Feb

-15

Jul-

15

Jan

-16

Jun

-16


SATISFIED 35%

DISSATISFIED 58%

DON’T KNOW 7%

Net = -23

Dissatisfied

Satisfied


69%

27%

5%

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF

THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/AS PRIME MINISTER?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 354 Conservative supporters 18+, 11th – 14th June 2016

David Cameron (satisfaction among Tory supporters)

June 2016 May 2006 –June 2016


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

May 0

6Ju

l 06

Oct

06

Jan

07

May 0

7Ju

l 07

Sep

07

Dec

07

Feb

08

Ap

r 08

Jun

08

Au

g 0

8O

ct-0

8D

ec-

08

Feb

-09

Ap

r-09

Jun

-09

Au

g-0

9O

ct-0

9D

ec-

09

Feb

-10

Ap

r-10

Jun

-10

Sep

-10

Jan

-11

Mar-

11

May-1

1Ju

l-11

Sep

-11

No

v-1

1Ja

n-1

2M

ar-

12

May-1

2Ju

l-12

Sep

-12

No

v-1

2Ja

n-1

3M

ar-

13

May-1

3Ju

l-13

Sep

-13

No

v-1

3Ja

n-1

4M

ar-

14

May-1

4Ju

l-14

Sep

-14

No

v-1

4Ja

n-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-15

Jul-

15

Oct

-15

Dec-

15

Feb

-16

Ap

r-16

Jun

-16

SATISFIED 69%

DISSATISFIED 27%

DON’T KNOW 5%

Net = +42

Satisfied

Dissatisfied


27%

52%

21%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

rl-1

6

May-1

6

Jun

-16

SATISFIED 27%

DISSATISFIED 52%

DON’T KNOW 21%

Net = -25

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF

THE LABOUR PARTY?


Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)

June 2016 September 2015 – June 2016


Satisfied

Dissatisfied


50%

35%

15%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

rl-1

6

May-1

6

Jun

-16

SATISFIED 50%

DISSATISFIED 35%

DON’T KNOW 15%

Net = +15

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF

THE LABOUR PARTY?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 378 Labour supporters 18+, 11th – 14th June 2016

Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction amongst Labour supporters)


Satisfied

Dissatisfied


19%

32%

49%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

rl-1

6

May-1

6

Jun

-16

SATISFIED 19%

DISSATISFIED 32%

DON’T KNOW 49%

Net = -13

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE

LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 623 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th June 2016

Tim Farron (satisfaction)


Satisfied

Dissatisfied


38%

44%

17%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Mar-

13

Ap

r-13

May-1

3Ju

n-1

3Ju

l-13

Au

g-1

3Sep

-13

Oct

-13

No

v-1

3D

ec-

13

Jan

-14

Feb

-14

Mar-

14

Ap

r-14

May-1

4Ju

n-1

4Ju

l-14

Au

g-1

4Sep

-14

Oct

-14

No

v-1

4D

ec-

14

Jan

-15

Feb

-15

Mar-

15

Ap

r-152

Ap

r-15

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5D

ec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

rl-1

6M

ay-1

6Ju

n-1

6

SATISFIED 38%

DISSATISFIED 44%

DON’T KNOW 17%

Net = -6

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NIGEL FARAGE IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE

UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 634 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th June 2016

Nigel Farage (satisfaction)

May 2016 March 2013 – May 2016

Satisfied

Dissatisfied


ECONOMIC

OPTIMISM


19%

31%29%

21%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

May-0

4

No

v-0

4

May-0

5

No

v-0

5

Jun

-06

Jan

-07

Sep

-07

Ap

r-08

Oct

-08

Ap

r-09

Oct

-09

Ap

r-10

No

v-1

0

May-1

1

No

v-1

1

May-1

2

No

v-1

2

May-1

3

No

v-1

3

May-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ap

r-15

Dec-

15

Jun

-16

IMPROVE 19%

STAY THE SAME 31%

GET WORSE 29%

DON’T KNOW 21%

EOI = -10

DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE

SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?


Economic Optimism Index

June 2016


DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE

SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?


The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Jun

1998

Oct

1998

Feb

1999

Jun

1999

Oct

1999

Feb

2000

Jun

2000

Oct

2000

Feb

2001

Jun

2001

Oct

2001

Feb

2002

Jun

2002

Oct

2002

Feb

2003

Jun

2003

Oct

2003

Feb

2004

Jun

2004

Oct

2004

Feb

2005

Jun

2005

Oct

2005

Feb

2006

Jun

2006

Oct

2006

Feb

2007

Jun

2007

Oct

2007

Feb

2008

Jun

2008

Oct

2008

Feb

2009

Jun

2009

Oct

2009

Feb

2010

Jun

2010

Oct

2010

Feb

2011

Jun

2011

Oct

2011

Feb

2012

Jun

2012

Oct

2012

Feb

2013

Jun

2013

Oct

2013

Feb

2014

Jun

2014

Oct

2014

Feb

2015

Jun

2015

Oct

2015

Feb

2016

Jun

2016

-10


Party image


WHICH POLITICAL PARTY DO YOU THINK HAS THE BEST TEAM OF LEADERS TO DEAL WITH THE

COUNTRY’S PROBLEMS?


Which party has the best team of leaders?

43%

16%

4%2%

3%

16%

16%

January 2016 June 2016

CONSERVATIVE

LABOUR

UKIP

LIB DEM

OTHER

NONE OF THESE

DON’T KNOW

36%

19%3%2%3%

19%

17%


WHICH POLITICAL PARTY DO YOU THINK IS MOST CLEAR AND UNITED ABOUT WHAT ITS POLICIES

SHOULD BE?


Which party is the most clear and united?

January 2016 June 2016

CONSERVATIVE

LABOUR

UKIP

GREEN

LIB DEM

OTHER

33%

13%11%

5%

8%

15%

15%24%

13%

11%5%7%

24%

17%

Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)

© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information

and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

19

June 2016POLITICAL MONITOR

ipsos mori political monitor: june 2016 - voting intention

News & Politics