Understanding the polls: Ipsos MORI’s electionBPC ENQUIRY 19 JUNE

Before we start1. LOSE BATHWATER, KEEP BABY2. FOCUS ON WHAT HAPPENED IN OUR

POLLS 3. STILL AT DIAGNOSIS STAGE – MORE TO

LEARN FROM OUR/BPC REVIEW

Reminder of our approach

• Telephone RDD (c 80% landline, 20% mobile), GB adults 18+

• Quotas on age, gender, region, work status, social grade

• Weights on age x gender, work status x gender, region, ethnicity, tenure, car in h/hold, public/private sector, social grade

• Two-part voting intention: “How would you vote in a General Election tomorrow”, and “Which party are you most inclined to support” to undecided/refuseds

• Publish two voting intention figures: headline based on all absolutely certain to vote (10/10 on a ten-point scale) and all voters

• Further additions to final poll: small number of recalls, exclude non-registered, include postal voters, re-allocate refusals according to newspaper readership

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Our final poll – all parties less than 2% points away from actual – except Labour, overestimated

Base: 862 British adults who are registered and certain to vote 5 th -6th May 2015

HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor/Ipsos MORI calculations from BBC reports

36%

35%

11%

5%8%5%

Ipsos MORI final poll GB final result

Conservative lead = +1 Conservative lead = +6.5

CONSERVATIVE

LABOUR

UKIP

GREEN

LIB DEM

OTHER

37.7%

31.2%

12.9%

3.8%8.1%

6.4%

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‘Shy Tories’ not our problem – instead over-claim among LabourHOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?

Base: 1,186 British adults 18+, 5th – 6th May 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor/Ipsos MORI calculations from BBC reports

Cons

Lab

11.3

9.3

12.5

12.2

Implied from final poll ActualVotes

(millions)

Turnout lower than we predicted. Normally c10 percentage points lower than claimed, but 16 percentage points in 2015

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-60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 050

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

2015

2010

2005

Days before election

% certain to vote

-9ppt

-11ppt

-16ppt

Difference between actual turnout and certainty to vote

2005

2010

30%

33%

39%

32%

Q. Which party do you think has the best policies on managing the economy: the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats or some other party?

Not a new issue of course – and in previous elections certainty of voting filter was successfulIPSOS MORI FINAL POLLS – RAW (WEIGHTED) AND FINAL PREDICTIONS

All with voting intention Final projection% certain to vote

2005

2010

33%

36%

38%

29%

7682

7485

The increase in claimed turnout came mainly from Labour supporters – question worked in 2010, but less successful in differentiating in 2015?

Actual Turnout

Certain to vote - Labour

Certain to vote - Conservative

Certain to vote

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

65.3

74

85

76

66.4

86

84

82

20152010

Bas: All registered adults 18+ (1,096) 5-6 May 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI/House of Commons

HOW LIKELY WILL YOU BE TO VOTE IN AN IMMEDIATE GENERAL ELECTION, ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 10? 8HOW LIKELY WOULD YOU BE TO VOTE ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 10?

IF HAD THE SAME DIFFERENTIAL IN 2015 AS IN 2010, WOULD HAVE HAD CONSERVATIVE 38% LABOUR 32%

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The gap between Labour and Conservative supporters’ certainty to vote closed just after the 2010 election% OF SUPPORTERS “ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN TO VOTE”

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

CONSERVATIVE LABOUR

Jan

08

May

08

Sep

08

Jan

09

May

09

Sep

09

Jan

10

May

10

Sep

10

Jan

11

May

11

Sep

11

Jan

12

May

12

Sep

12

Jan

13

May

13

Sep

13

Jan

14

May

14

Sep

14

Jan

15

May

150%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0.840.86

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

2010 General Election

Predicting voter turnout one of the key issues facing pollsters worldwide….

10

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If we had taken more account of past voting behaviour (using experimental questions from Ipsos’ international experience)?

Base: 862 British adults who are registered and certain to vote 5 th -6th May 2015809 British adults who are registered, always/usually/depends vote in GEs and 9/10 certain to vote

HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

36%

35%

11%

5%8%5%

Final poll – all ‘absolutely certain to vote’ Based on those who always/usually depends vote in general elections and 9/10 certain to vote

Average error = 1.7 Average error = 0.8

CONSERVATIVE

LABOUR

UKIP

GREEN

LIB DEM

OTHER

37%

32%

11%

5%9%

6%

Although will continue to explore other angles – and look forward to hearing findings from this enquiry!

• Further refinements on turnout

• Late swing

• Question order/wording

• Sampling/weighting improvements

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Thanks for listening