POLITICAL MONITOR November 2014

Contacts: Bobby.Duffy@ipsos.com

Gideon.Skinner@ipsos.com

Harry.Carr@ipsos.com

020 7347 3000

Voting Intentions

3Voting Intention: all giving an opinion vs. those “certain to vote”

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Conservative lead = 0

All giving a voting intention: 81%

How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

30%

30%

10%

14%

16%

Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 8th -10th November 2014, all certain to vote = 642

Labour

Conservative

Lib Dem

UKIP

Other

All certain to vote: 60%

Conservative lead = +3

32%

29%

9%

14%

16%

4

Fe

b-0

4M

ay-0

4A

ug

-04

No

v-04

Fe

b-0

5M

ay-0

5A

ug

-05

No

v-05

Fe

b-0

6M

ay-0

6A

ug

-06

No

v-06

Fe

b-0

7M

ay-0

7A

ug

-07

No

v-07

Fe

b-0

8M

ay-0

8A

ug

-08

No

v-08

Fe

b-0

9M

ay-0

9A

ug

-09

No

v-09

Fe

b-1

0M

ay-1

0A

ug

-10

No

v-10

Fe

b-1

1M

ay-1

1A

ug

-11

No

v-11

Fe

b-1

2M

ay-1

2A

ug

-12

No

v-12

Fe

b-1

3M

ay-1

3A

ug

-13

No

v-13

Fe

b-1

4M

ay-1

4A

ug

-14

No

v-14

0

10

20

30

40

50

29%

9%

32%

14%

2005 General Election

Cameron elected

(Dec 05)

Brown as PM (Jun 07)

2010 General Election

Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through November 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Voting Intentions February ‘04 – November ‘14(all certain to vote)

How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

5

Feb-08

May-

08

Aug-08

Nov-08

Feb-09

May-

09

Aug-09

Nov-09

Feb-10

May-

10

Aug-10

Nov-10

Feb-11

May-

11

Aug-11

Nov-11

Feb-12

May-

12

Aug-12

Nov-12

Feb-13

May-

13

Aug-13

Nov-13

Feb-14

May-

14

Aug-14

Nov-14

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

How certain are Labour and Conservative supporters in their intention to vote? February ‘08 to November ‘14

% of supporters “Absolutely certain to vote”

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

2010 General Election

Labour Conservative

72%66%

Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through November 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter

Satisfaction with the Coalition and Party Leaders

7

53

62

65

44

60

38

26

21

38

33

Net Satisfaction

Swing from October

2014

-15 +1

-36 +0.5

-44 -5

-6 -1

-27 +1

Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 8th – 10th November 2014. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied”

Satisfaction with leaders and the Government

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country /doing his job as Prime Minister /Deputy Prime Minister/Leader of the Labour Party/UKIP?

David Cameron

The Government

Nick Clegg

Ed Miliband

% Satisfied% Dissatisfied

Nigel Farage

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

8

Fe

b-0

8

Ma

y-08

Au

g-0

8

No

v-08

Fe

b-0

9

Ma

y-09

Au

g-0

9

No

v-09

Fe

b-1

0

Ma

y-10

Au

g-1

0

No

v-10

Fe

b-1

1

Ma

y-11

Au

g-1

1

No

v-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-12

Au

g-1

2

No

v-12

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-13

Au

g-1

3

No

v-13

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-14

Au

g-1

4

No

v-14

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

26%

% s

atis

fied

Cameron

Clegg

General Election

38%

Miliband

21%Brown

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country / doing his job as … ?

Satisfaction with Party leaders February ‘08 – November ‘14

Farage38%

9

Series1

Net

sat

isfa

ctio

n

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister?

Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers

THATCHER

BLAIRMAJOR

BROWN

CAMERON

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Number of months from becoming Prime Minister

Note: Data collected prior to November 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from November 2008 was via telephone

10

38%

53%

9%

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

David Cameron (satisfaction)

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party/ as Prime Minister?

Note: Data collected prior to November 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from November 2008 was via telephone

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

November 2014

SatisfiedDon’t know

Dissatisfied

Net = -15

Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 8th – 10th November 2014

Nov

-06

May

-07

Nov

-07

May

-08

Nov

-08

May

-09

Nov

-09

May

-10

Nov

-10

May

-11

Nov

-11

May

-12

Nov

-12

May

-13

Nov

-13

May

-14

Nov

-14

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

November 2006 – November 2014

11

Nov

-06

May

-07

Nov

-07

May

-08

Nov

-08

May

-09

Nov

-09

May

-10

Nov

-10

May

-11

Nov

-11

May

-12

Nov

-12

May

-13

Nov

-13

May

-14

Nov

-14

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Base: 265 Conservative supporters 18+, 8th -10th November 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

David Cameron (satisfaction among Tory supporters)Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party/ as Prime Minister?

80%

14%

6%Satisfied

Don’t know

Dissatisfied

Net = +66 Note: Data collected prior to November 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from November 2008 was via telephone

November 2006 – November 2014November 2014

12

Series1

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader

HAGUE (1997-2001)DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003)

Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2014) How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?

CAMERON (2005-2010)

BLAIR (1994-1997)

MILIBAND (2010-2014)

HOWARD (2003-2005)

Note: Data collected prior to November 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from November 2008 was via telephone

Net

sat

isfa

ctio

n

13

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Number of months from becoming Opposition

Leader

Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (Labour) How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?

BLAIR (1994-1997)

MILIBAND (2010-2014)

Note: Data collected prior to September 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from September 2008 was via telephone

Net

sat

isfa

ctio

n CALLAGHAN (1979-1980)

SMITH (1992-1994)

FOOT (1980-1983)

KINNOCK (1983-1992)

14

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month*Thatcher data starts in March 1977 (i.e. 25 months after becoming Conservative leader)

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader

HAGUE (1997-2001)DUNCAN

SMITH (2001-2003)

Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (Conservatives) How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?

CAMERON (2005-2010)

HOWARD (2003-2005)

Note: Data collected prior to September 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from September 2008 was via telephone

Net

sat

isfa

ctio

n

THATCHER* (1975-1979)

15

No

v-1

0Ja

n-1

1M

ar-

11

Ma

y-1

1Ju

l-1

1S

ep

-11

No

v-1

1Ja

n-1

2M

ar-

12

Ma

y-1

2Ju

l-1

2S

ep

-12

No

v-1

2Ja

n-1

3M

ar-

13

Ma

y-1

3Ju

l-1

3S

ep

-13

No

v-1

3Ja

n-1

4M

ar-

14

Ma

y-1

4Ju

l-1

4S

ep

-14

No

v-1

4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Ed Miliband (satisfaction)

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

November 2010 – November 2014November 2014

SatisfiedDon’t know

Dissatisfied

21%

65%

14%

Net = -44

Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 8th – 10th November 2014

16

35%

58%

7%

No

v-1

0Ja

n-1

1M

ar-

11

Ma

y-1

1Ju

l-1

1S

ep

-11

No

v-1

1Ja

n-1

2M

ar-

12

Ma

y-1

2Ju

l-1

2S

ep

-12

No

v-1

2Ja

n-1

3M

ar-

13

Ma

y-1

3Ju

l-1

3S

ep

-13

No

v-1

3Ja

n-1

4M

ar-

14

Ma

y-1

4Ju

l-1

4S

ep

-14

No

v-1

4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Base: 234 Labour supporters 18+, 8th – 10th November 2014

Ed Miliband (satisfaction among Labour supporters)Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?

November 2014

Net = -23

SatisfiedDon’t know

Dissatisfied

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

November 2010 – November 2014

17Nick Clegg (satisfaction)

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/ as Deputy Prime Minister?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

No

v-0

8

Ma

y-0

9

No

v-0

9

Ma

y-1

0

No

v-1

0

Ma

y-1

1

No

v-1

1

Ma

y-1

2

No

v-1

2

Ma

y-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ma

y-1

4

No

v-1

4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Note: Data collected prior to November 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from November 2008 was via telephone

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

November 2008 – November 2014November 2014

26%

62%

12%

SatisfiedDon’t know

Dissatisfied

Net = -36

Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 8th – 10th November 2014

18

No

v-0

8F

eb

-09

Ma

y-0

9A

ug

-09

No

v-0

9F

eb

-10

Ma

y-1

0A

ug

-10

No

v-1

0F

eb

-11

Ma

y-1

1A

ug

-11

No

v-1

1F

eb

-12

Ma

y-1

2A

ug

-12

No

v-1

2F

eb

-13

Ma

y-1

3A

ug

-13

No

v-1

3F

eb

-14

Ma

y-1

4A

ug

-14

No

v-1

4

0

102030

405060

708090

100

Base: 83 Liberal Democrat supporters 18+, 8th – 10th November 2014. N.B. small base size indicative only

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

November 2014

49%45%

6%Satisfied

Don’t know

Dissatisfied

Net = +4

Nick Clegg (satisfaction among Lib Dem supporters)Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/ as Deputy Prime Minister?

November 2008 – November 2014

Note: Data collected prior to November 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from November 2008 was via telephone

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

19

38%

44%

18%

Nigel Farage (satisfaction)

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nigel Farage is doing his job as leader of UKIP, the UK Independence Party?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

All

SatisfiedDon’t know

Dissatisfied

Net = -6M

ar-

13

Ap

r-1

3M

ay-

13

Jun

-13

Jul-

13

Au

g-1

3S

ep

-13

Oct

-13

No

v-1

3D

ec-

13

Jan

-14

Fe

b-1

4M

ar-

14

Ap

r-1

4M

ay-

14

Jun

-14

Jul-

14

Au

g-1

4S

ep

-14

Oct

-14

No

v-1

4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

March 2013 – November 2014

Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 8th – 10th November 2014

20

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nigel Farage is doing his job as leader of UKIP, the UK Independence Party?

Nigel Farage (satisfaction among UKIP supporters)

Base: 124 UKIP supporters, 8th -10th November 2014.

89%

6%6%

UKIP supporters

Satisfied

Don’t knowDissatisfied

Ma

r-1

3A

pr-

13

Ma

y-1

3Ju

n-1

3Ju

l-1

3A

ug

-13

Se

p-1

3O

ct-1

3N

ov-

13

De

c-1

3Ja

n-1

4F

eb

-14

Ma

r-1

4A

pr-

14

Ma

y-1

4Ju

n-1

4Ju

l-1

4A

ug

-14

Se

p-1

4O

ct-1

4N

ov-

14

0

102030

405060

708090

100

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

March 2013 – November 2014

Net = +83

The economy

22

No

v-0

4

Ma

y-0

5

No

v-0

5

Ma

y-0

6

No

v-0

6

Ma

y-0

7

No

v-0

7

Ma

y-0

8

No

v-0

8

Ma

y-0

9

No

v-0

9

Ma

y-1

0

No

v-1

0

Ma

y-1

1

No

v-1

1

Ma

y-1

2

No

v-1

2

Ma

y-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ma

y-1

4

No

v-1

4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Economic Optimism Index

Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Improve

Stay the sameGet worse Improve

Don’t know

Get worse

Stay the same

November 2014

EOI = +19

42%

30%

23%

5%

Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 8th -10th November 2014

23

Feb

-97

Aug

-97

Feb

-98

Aug

-98

Feb

-99

Aug

-99

Feb

-00

Aug

-00

Feb

-01

Aug

-01

Feb

-02

Aug

-02

Feb

-03

Aug

-03

Feb

-04

Aug

-04

Feb

-05

Aug

-05

Feb

-06

Aug

-06

Feb

-07

Aug

-07

Feb

-08

Aug

-08

Feb

-09

Aug

-09

Feb

-10

Aug

-10

Feb

-11

Aug

-11

Feb

-12

Aug

-12

Feb

-13

Aug

-13

Feb

-14

Aug

-14

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

+28

-46

-56-48

+23

The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism IndexIn

dex

(g

et b

ette

r m

inu

s g

et w

ors

e)

-64

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

+19

+34

Impact of the recovery

25Personal financial circumstances- trend

Do you think that your personal financial circumstances will improve, get worse or stay the same over the next 12 months?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

November 2008

April 2009

March 2011

November 2013

November 2014

14%

17%

14%

23%

25%

45%

51%

37%

42%

52%

39%

30%

48%

33%

22%

2%

2%

3%

3%

2%

Improve Stay the same Get worse Don't know

Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 8th – 10th November 2014

Personal EOI

+3

-10

-34

-13

-25

26Perceived impact of the recovery

As you may know, according to official statistics the UK economy has grown by about 1.5%/3% compared to the same time last year. What impact, if any, do you feel this growth in the economy has had on you and your family’s standard of living so far?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Don’t know

3%

11%

36%

48%

1%

A fair amount

Not very much

A great deal

None at all

14%

84%

November 2013

Don’t know

3%

14%

31%49%

2%

A fair amount

Not very much

A great deal

None at all

80%

November 2014

17%

Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 8th -10th November 2014

27Perceived future impact of the recovery

And what impact, if any, do you think the growth in the economy will have on you and your family’s standard of living over the next 12 months?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Don’t know

4%

15%

44%

33%

3%A fair amount

Not very much

A great deal

None at all

19%

77%

November 2013 November 2014

Don’t know

4%

18%

42%

33%

4%A fair amount

Not very much

A great deal

None at all

22%

75%

Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 8th -10th November 2014

Confidence in leaders and parties

29Readiness of Labour and Ed Miliband for government

On balance, do you agree or disagree with the following statements:

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,011 British adults 18+, 8-11 November 2014

7%

4%

12%

7%

15%

9%

23%

16%

9%

9%

9%

12%

22%

26%

21%

26%

43%

47%

31%

35%

4%

5%

4%

4%

Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither/nor Tend to disagreeStrongly disagree Don't know

Labour is ready to form the next government

Nov ‘14

Labour is ready to form the next government

June ‘14

Ed Miliband is ready to be Prime Minister

Nov ‘14

Ed Miliband is ready to

be Prime Minister

June ‘14

23%

35%

13%

22%

61%

52%

73%

65%

30Other parties’ readiness for coalition government

On balance, do you agree or disagree with the following statements:

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,011 British adults 18+, 8-11 November 2014

UKIP is ready to form part of a UK coalition

government

Nigel Farage is ready to be a government minister

The Green Party is ready to form part of a UK coalition government

The SNP is ready to form part of a UK coalition

government8%

8%

11%

9%

21%

19%

19%

21%

13%

10%

7%

5%

19%

20%

13%

17%

27%

34%

41%

41%

12%

9%

9%

6%

Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither/nor Tend to disagreeStrongly disagree Don't know

30%

30%

27%

29%

58%

54%

54%

46%