ipsos mori political monitor: september 2016

Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)

© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information

and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

1

Ipsos MORISeptember 2016 POLITICAL MONITOR

3Political Monitor | September 2016 | Final | Public

40%

34%

9%

5%

6%6%

HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th September 2016 ; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it

depends vote in General Elections = 758. Headline voting intention is based on a method that would have given most accurate results in the

2015 GE.

Voting Intention

38%

35%

10%

4%7%

6%

ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTIONHEADLINE VOTING INTENTION

CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +3

CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +6

CONSERVATIVE

LABOUR

UKIP

GREEN

LIB DEM

OTHER


SATISFACTION WITH THE

GOVERNMENT AND

PARTY LEADERS


22%

33%

45%

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/HER JOB

AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS ?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,000 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th September 2016 . Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied

Satisfaction with leaders and the Government

39%

52%

9%

-4%swing from August 2016

+1%swing from August 2016

-1.5%swing from August 2016

- 4.5%swing from August 2016

+27 Net -31 Net -11 Net -13 Net

SATISFIED 54% SATISFIED 27% SATISFIED 22% SATISFIED 39%

DISSATISFIED 27% DISSATISFIED 58% DISSATISFIED 33% 3DISSATISFIED 52%

54%27%

19%27%

58%

15%

Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn Tim Farron The Government


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS … ?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month

Satisfaction with Party leaders Sept 2015 – August’16

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Jan

16

Feb

16

Mar

16

Ap

r 16

May 1

6

Ju

n 1

6

Ju

l 16

Au

g 1

6

Sep

16

MAY CORBYN FARRON

54%

27%

22%


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME

MINISTER?


Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers

MAY CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER

Net

sati

sfact

ion

NUMBER OF MONTHS FROM BECOMING PRIME MINISTER

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

May


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE …

PARTY?


Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2016)

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader

Net

sati

sfact

ion

HOWARD BLAIR (94-97) DUNCAN SMITH (01-03) MILIBAND (10-15) CAMERON (05-10) HAGUE (97-01) CORBYN (15-present)


ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME

MINISTER?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,000 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th September 2016

Theresa May (satisfaction)

54%

27%

19%

September 2016 August 2016

SATISFIED 54%

DISSATISFIED 27%

DON’T KNOW 19%

Net = +27

54%

19%

27%SATISFIED 54%

DISSATISFIED 19%

DON’T KNOW 27%

Net = +35


ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME

MINISTER?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 345 Conservative supporters 18+ 10th – 14th September and 368 Conservative supporters 18+, 13th – 15th August 2016

Theresa May (satisfaction amongst Conservative supporters

81%

6%

13%

September 2016 August 2016

SATISFIED 81%

DISSATISFIED 6%

DON’T KNOW 13%

Net = +75

76%

4%

20%

SATISFIED 76%

DISSATISFIED 4%

DON’T KNOW 20%

Net = +72


27%

58%

15%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

rl-1

6

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

SATISFIED 27%

DISSATISFIED 58%

DON’T KNOW 15%

Net = -31

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF

THE LABOUR PARTY?


Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)

September 2016 September 2015 – September 2016

Satisfied

Dissatisfied


47%

46%

8%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

rl-1

6

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

SATISFIED 47%

DISSATISFIED 46%

DON’T KNOW 8%

Net = +1

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF

THE LABOUR PARTY?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 298 Labour supporters 18+, 10th – 14th September 2016

Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction amongst Labour supporters)


SatisfiedDissatisfied


22%

33%

45%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

rl-1

6

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

SATISFIED 22%

DISSATISFIED 33%

DON’T KNOW 45%

Net = -11

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE

LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?


Tim Farron (satisfaction)


Satisfied

Dissatisfied


ECONOMIC

OPTIMISM


36%

24%

37%

3%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Au

g-0

4

Feb

-05

Au

g-0

5

Mar-

06

Oct

-06

Jun

-07

Jan

-08

Jul-

08

Jan

-09

Jul-

09

Jan

-10

Jul-

10

Feb

-11

Au

g-1

1

Feb

-12

Au

g-1

2

Feb

-13

Au

g-1

3

Feb

-14

Au

g-1

4

Feb

-15

Sep

-15

Mar-

16

Sep

-16

IMPROVE 36%

STAY THE SAME 24%

GET WORSE 37%

DON’T KNOW 3%

EOI = -1

DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE

SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?


Economic Optimism Index

September 2016


DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE

SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?


The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Feb

1997

Jul 1997

Dec

1997

May 1

998

Oct

1998

Mar

1999

Au

g 1

999

Jan

2000

Jun

2000

No

v 2

000

Ap

r 2001

Sep

2001

Feb

2002

Jul 2002

Dec

2002

May 2

003

Oct

2003

Mar

2004

Au

g 2

004

Jan

2005

Jun

2005

No

v 2

005

Ap

r 2006

Sep

2006

Feb

2007

Jul 2007

Dec

2007

May 2

008

Oct

2008

Mar

2009

Au

g 2

009

Jan

2010

Jun

2010

No

v 2

010

Ap

r 2011

Sep

2011

Feb

2012

Jul 2012

Dec

2012

May 2

013

Oct

2013

Mar

2014

Au

g 2

014

Jan

2015

Jun

2015

No

v 2

015

Ap

r 2016

Sep

2016

-1


Leader image


I AM GOING TO READ OUT SOME THINGS BOTH FAVOURABLE AND UNFAVOURABLE THAT HAVE BEEN

SAID ABOUT VARIOUS POLITICIANS. WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO ……?


Leader Image – Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May

Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th September 2016

68%

52%

56%

61%

43%

25%

37%

55%

75%

44%

24%

18%

30%

44%

44%

24%

32%

38%

49%

52%

Capable leader

Good in a crisis

Has sound judgement

Understands the problems facing Britain

Out of touch with ordinary people

More style than substance

Has got a lot of personality

Has a clear vision for Britain

Patriotic

More honest than most politicians

MAY CORBYN



SAID ABOUT VARIOUS POLITICIANS. WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO THERESA MAY?


Leader Image – Theresa May


62%

51%

46%

51%

64%

45%

41%

56%

76%

30%

68%

52%

56%

61%

43%

25%

37%

55%

75%

44%

Capable leader

Good in a crisis

Has sound judgement






Patriotic


SEPTEMBER 2016 SEPTEMBER 2015 (DAVID CAMERON)



SAID ABOUT VARIOUS POLITICIANS. WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO JEREMY

CORBYN?


Leader Image – Jeremy Corbyn


32%

23%

32%

49%

39%

25%

41%

47%

37%

54%

24%

18%

30%

44%

44%

24%

32%

38%

49%

52%

Capable leader

Good in a crisis

Has sound judgement






Patriotic


SEPTEMBER 2015 SEPTEMBER 2016


HOW MUCH, IF AT ALL, DO YOU TRUST ………. TO MAKE THE RIGHT DECISIONS FOR BRITAIN ON

IMMIGRATION?


Immigration and Brexit

Theresa May

8

23

26

38

4

Jeremy Corbyn

A GREAT DEAL A FAIR AMOUNT NOT VERY MUCH NOT AT ALL DON’T KNOW

10

4721

17

6


WHICH OF THESE STATEMENTS COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR VIEWS OF… THERESA MAY AND THE

CONSERVATIVE PARTY?


Leaders and their parties – Theresa May

32%

28%

6%

27%

7%

May & the Conservative

Party

%

September

2016

Change

since

September

2015 (David

Cameron)

Total like her 60 +16

Total do not like her 33 -19

Total like the party 38 -3

Total do not like the party 55 0

I LIKE HER AND I

LIKE THE PARTY

I LIKE HER BUT I DO

NOT LIKE THE

PARTY

I DO NOT LIKE HER

BUT I LIKE THE

PARTY

I DO NOT LIKE HER

AND I DO NOT LIKE

THE PARTY

DON’T KNOW


WHICH OF THESE STATEMENTS COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR VIEWS OF… JEREMY CORBYN AND THE

LABOUR PARTY?


Leaders and their parties – Jeremy Corbyn

Corbyn & the Labour

Party

%

September

2016

Change

since

September

2015

Total like him 37 0

Total do not like him 54 -1

Total like the party 46 +6

Total do not like the party 45 -7

23%

14%

23%

31%

8%

I LIKE HIM AND I

LIKE THE PARTY

I LIKE HIM BUT I DO

NOT LIKE THE

PARTY

I DO NOT LIKE HIM

BUT I LIKE THE

PARTY

I DO NOT LIKE HIM

AND I DO NOT LIKE

THE PARTY

DON’T KNOW


WHICH OF THESE STATEMENTS COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR VIEWS OF… TIM FARRON AND THE LIBERAL

DEMOCRAT PARTY?


Leaders and their parties – Tim Farron

Farron & the Liberal

Democrat Party

%

September

2016

Change

since

September

2015

Total like him 23 -1

Total do not like him 46 +2

Total like the party 28 0

Total do not like the party 41 +1

15%

8%

13%

33%

31%

I LIKE HIM AND I

LIKE THE PARTY

I LIKE HIM BUT I DO

NOT LIKE THE

PARTY

I DO NOT LIKE HIM

BUT I LIKE THE

PARTY

I DO NOT LIKE HIM

AND I DO NOT LIKE

THE PARTY

DON’T KNOW

Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)

© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information

and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

25

September 2016POLITICAL MONITOR

ipsos mori political monitor: september 2016

News & Politics