ipsos mori: scottish public opinion monitor: december 2013

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Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential © Ipsos MORI

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Scottish Public Opinion Monitor December 2013

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Independence referendum

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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?

Referendum voting intention

Base: All = 1,006; all certain to vote = 803. Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 29th November – 5th December 2013

31%

55%

14%

All voters

‘Yes’

Change

since

34%

57%

10%

Certain to vote

‘Yes’ Change

since

September

+3

Yes

No

Undecided

Yes

No

Undecided

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Referendum voting intention – recent trend

Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Ja

n-1

2

Feb-1

2

Ma

r-12

Apr-

12

Ma

y-1

2

Ju

n-1

2

Ju

l-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct-

12

Nov-1

2

Dec-1

2

Ja

n-1

3

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

r-13

Apr-

13

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

n-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Aug

-13

Sep

-13

Oct-

13

Nov-1

3

Dec-1

3

Yes No Undecided

57%

34%

10%

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Voting intention excluding ‘don’t knows’

Base: All = 864; all certain to vote = 727. Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 29th November – 5th December 2013

36%

64%

All voters

37%

63%

Certain to vote

Yes

No

Yes

No

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Voting intention amongst those certain to vote and

definitely decided how they will vote

Base: All certain to vote and definitely decided (580). Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults

37%

63%

All definitely decided and certain to vote

Yes

No

Yes Change

since

September

+4

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Feb-13 May-13 Sep-13 Dec-13

Yes No

63%

37%

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Floating voters

Base: All giving a voting intention but may change their mind (203); all undecided (138). Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 29th

November – 5th December 2013

37%

63%

All giving a voting intention but may change their mind

27%

34%

38%

All undecided – inclined to vote

Yes

No

Yes

No

Undecided

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here Support for independence – long-term trend

Data taken from MORI and Ipsos MORI polling (1999-07 data taken from Scottish Social Attitudes Survey)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

197

8

197

9

198

0

198

1

198

2

198

3

198

4

198

5

198

6

198

7

198

8

198

9

199

0

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

Su

pp

ort

fo

r in

de

pe

nd

ence

(%

)

Introduction of the poll tax

in Scotland Devolution referendum

Scottish Parliament opens

Devolution referendum

SNP form minority

government

SNP form majority

government

Edinburgh

Agreement

signed

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here Voting intention by gender

Base: All certain to vote = 803. Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 29th November – 5th December 2013

41%

52%

27%

61%

40%

Yes

No

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Men Women

% voting Yes

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here Voting intention by age group


Yes

No

34%

56%

30%

59% 11%

40%

50%

10%

29%

62% 9%

16-24 25-34

35-54 55+ 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

16-24* 25-34 35-54 55+

*Jan 2012 – May 2013 this was 18-24 year olds

% voting Yes

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here Voting intention by levels of deprivation


45%

47%

26%

68%

Most deprived areas Least deprived areas

Yes

No

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Most deprived areas Least deprived areas

% voting Yes

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96% 3% 91% 6%

Voting intention by party support


Yes

No

74%

15%

18%

73% 9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

SNP Lab Con Lib Dem

% voting Yes

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Impact of the ‘White Paper’

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As you may know the Scottish Govt recently published its White Paper, ‘Scotland’s Future’, which outlines their plans for an independent

Scotland. Based on what you may have read, seen or heard, what impact, if any, will this have on how you plan to vote in the referendum?

Impact of the white paper

Base: All. Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 29th November – 5th December 2013

18%

20%

51%

9%

More likely to voteYes

More likely to voteNo

Make no difference

Haven't read, seenor heard anythingabout it

Don't know

14%

12%

45%

19%

9%

All

Undecided

voters

22%

13%

43%

17%

5%

May

change

mind

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here Technical details

• This presents the topline results from Scotland

• Results are based on a survey of 1,006 respondents

(adults aged 16+) conducted by telephone

• Fieldwork dates: 29th November – 5th December 2013

• Data are weighted by: age, sex and working status using

census data; tenure using SHS data; and public-private

sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly

Public Sector Employment series data

• Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to

computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of

“don’t know” categories

• Results are based on all respondents (1,006) unless

otherwise stated

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Thank you [email protected] | 0131 240 3269

[email protected] | 0131 240 3264 @IpsosMORIScot

ipsos mori: scottish public opinion monitor: december 2013

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