ipsos mori stv news scottish public opinion …...data collected among 1,002 scottish adults 16+,...

August 2015 SCOTTISH PUBLIC OPINION MONITOR

VOTING INTENTIONS

3

Scottish Parliament Voting Intention

(Constituency)

Base: All giving a voting intention = 924; all 9-10/10 CTV plus always/usually/depends vote in Holyrood election = 741.

*except 16-22 y.o.s based on 10/10 CTV . Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 16+, 24th - 30th August 2015

HOW WOULD YOU USE YOUR FIRST VOTE IF THERE WERE ELECTIONS TO THE SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT TOMORROW?

Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor

55%

21%

12%

7% 3%

2%

All giving a voting intention 9-10/10 certain to vote and always/

usually/ depends at Holyrood elections*

SNP lead +34 SNP lead +35

SNP

LABOUR

CONSERVATIVE

LIB DEM

GREEN

OTHER

55%

20%

12%

7% 4%

2%

4

Scottish Parliament Voting Intention (Party List)

Base: All giving a voting intention = 932 all 9-10/10 CTV plus always/usually/depends vote in Holyrood election = 744,

*except 16-22 y.o.s based on 10/10 CTV . Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 16+, 24th - 30th August 2015

HOW WOULD YOU USE YOUR SECOND VOTE IF THERE WERE ELECTIONS TO THE SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT TOMORROW?


50%

21%

12%

7%

8% 3%

All giving a voting intention 9-10/10 certain to vote and always/

usually/ depends at Holyrood vote*

SNP lead +29 SNP lead +30

SNP

LABOUR

CONSERVATIVE

LIB DEM

GREEN

OTHER

50%

20%

12%

7%

8% 3%

5

Holyrood- Constituency vote trend IF THERE WERE ELECTIONS TO THE SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT TOMORROW, HOW WOULD YOU USE YOUR FIRST VOTE?

Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults. Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Labour SNP Conservative Liberal Democrats Other (including Greens)

POLICIES

7

Which party do you think has the best

policies for Scotland?

16%

23%

17%

15%

1%

2%

1%

1%

36%

2%

2%

3%

4%

4%

4%

4%

6%

15%

10%

9%

9%

14%

16%

18%

28%

40%

49%

48%

The environment

Crime and anti social behaviour

Education

Health and the NHS

SNP Scottish Labour Scottish

Conservatives Scottish Lib Dems

Base: All . Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 16+, 24th - 30th August 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor

Scottish Greens

Other Don’t know

SATISFACTION WITH PARTY LEADERS

9

DAVID CAMERON NICOLA STURGEON JOHN SWINNEY

-6% swing from April

+1% swing from April


-40 Net 48 Net 18% Net SATISFIED 28% SATISFIED 71% SATISFIED 51%

DISSATISFIED 68% DISSATISFIED 23% DISSATISFIED 33%

Satisfaction with Prime Minister, First Minister

and Deputy First Minister

Base: 1,002 Scottish adults 16+, 24th – 30th August 2015.

Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied”

HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOB

AS PRIME MINISTER /DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER/LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/UKIP?

0

-100

+100


10

KEZIA DUGDALE RUTH DAVIDSON WILLIE RENNIE PATRICK HARVIE




1% Net +9 Net -5 Net +31 Net SATISFIED 32% SATISFIED 43% SATISFIED 29% SATISFIED 47%

DISSATISFIED 31% DISSATISFIED 34% DISSATISFIED 34% DISSATISFIED 16%

Satisfaction with Scottish party leaders

Base: 1,002 Scottish adults 16+, 24th - 30th August 2015.

Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied”

HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS / DOING HER JOB

AS FIRST MINISTER /HIS JOB AS DEPUTY FIRST MINISTER/ HIS/HER JOB AS LEADER OF THE XXXX PARTY?

0

-100

+100


11

Net Satisfaction with party leaders trend ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS FIRST MINISTER//PRIME MINISTER/LEADER OF SCOTTISH LABOUR/THE SCOTTISH LIBERAL DEMOCRATS/THE SCOTTISH CONSERVATIVES?

Base: All . Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults.

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Aug-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 May-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Aug-15

Ruth Davidson Willie Rennie Patrick Harvie David Cameron

Nicola Sturgeon Kezia Dugdale John Swinney


THE LABOUR PARTY

13

A LOT MORE LIKELY 6%

A LITTLE MORE LIKELY

14%

MAKES NO DIFFERENCE 53%

A LITTLE LESS LIKELY 7%

A LOT LESS LIKELY 16%

DON’T KNOW 4%

Labour- Kezia Dugdale

Base: All . Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 16+, 24th - 30th August 2015

AS YOU MAY KNOW, KEZIA DUGDALE WAS ELECTED AS THE NEW LEADER OF THE SCOTTISH LABOUR

PARTY IN AUGUST 2015. DOES HER APPOINTMENT MAKE YOU MORE LIKELY OR LESS LIKELY TO VOTE FOR

THE SCOTTISH LABOUR PARTY AT THE SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS IN MAY 2016?

6%

14%

53%

7%

16%

4%


14

A LOT MORE LIKELY 10%

A LITTLE MORE LIKELY

13%

MAKES NO DIFFERENCE 38%

A LITTLE LESS LIKELY 11%

A LOT LESS LIKELY 23%

DON’T KNOW 5%

Labour- Jeremy Corbyn


AS YOU MAY KNOW, THE UK LABOUR PARTY IS CURRENTLY ELECTING A NEW LEADER. YOU MAY BE

AWARE THAT ONE OF THE CANDIDATES IN THAT ELECTION IS JEREMY CORBYN. IF JEREMY CORBYN WAS

ELECTED AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY WOULD YOU BE MORE OR LESS LIKELY TO VOTE LABOUR AT

THE SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS IN MAY 2016?

10%

13%

38%

11%

23%

5%


15

Labour appeal

Base: All Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 16+, 24th - 30th August 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor

16%

11%

9%

1%

1%

1%

2%

2%

4%

6%

7%

10%

29%

Don't know

Nothing they can do

Other

Learn lessons of the past

Select a new leader in Scotland

Support more devolution, beyond Smith powers

A stronger opposition

Be trusted to run the economy

Disband/ reform party

Support Scottish independence

Stand up for ordinary voters

More Scottish/diff. from UK party

Better policies

YOU SAID THAT YOU WOULD NOT VOTE FOR SCOTTISH LABOUR IF THERE WERE AN ELECTION TO THE

SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT TOMORROW. WHAT DO YOU THINK IS THE SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT THING THAT

SCOTTISH LABOUR COULD DO TO WIN YOUR SUPPORT?

INDEPENDENCE AND A FUTURE REFERENDUM

17

Support for a future referendum THINKING ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF HOLDING ANOTHER REFERENDUM ON SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE PLEASE TELL ME WHETHER YOU SUPPORT OR OPPOSE ANOTHER REFERENDUM BEING HELD IN THE EVENT OF EACH OF THE FOLLOWING CIRCUMSTANCES…

12%

9%

9%

4%

4%

47%

41%

39%

37%

46%

41%

50%

52%

58%

50%

The UK parliament voting of renewing theTrident nuclear deterrent

The UK voting in favour of "English votesfor English Laws"

The UK leaving the EU after a referendumwhen voters in Scotland voted to stay in the

EU

One being held in the 10 years

One being held in the next 5 years

Support Oppose Don’t know

Base: All . Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 16+, 24th - 30th August 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor

18

I WOULD VOTE YES 53%

I WOULD VOTE NO 44%

UNDECIDED /

DON’T KNOW 3%

Voting in a referendum


AND IF THERE WAS A REFERENDUM ON SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE HELD TOMORROW, HOW WOULD YOU

VOTE IN RESPONSE TO THE QUESTION “SHOULD SCOTLAND BE AN INDEPENDENT COUNTRY?”

3%

44% 53%


19

Technical details

This presents the topline results from Scotland.

Results are based on a survey of 1,002 respondents (adults aged 16+) conducted by telephone

Fieldwork dates: 24th - 30th August 2015.

Data are weighted by: age, sex and working status using census data; tenure using SHS data; and

public-private sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly Public Sector Employment

series data

Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to computer rounding, multiple responses, or the

exclusion of “don’t know” categories

Results are based on all respondents (1,002) unless otherwise stated.

Contact us: Mark Diffley: [email protected];

0131 220 5699

mailto:[email protected]

ipsos mori stv news scottish public opinion …...data collected among 1,002 scottish adults 16+,...

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