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What is Britain thinking and feeling?Gideon Skinner, Ipsos MORI Nov

ember 2012

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Q. Which, if any, do you think you are very interested in reading in the national daily newspapers?

We’re not always discussing the finer points of life…..

Base: 2,026 GB adults 15+, 19-22 January 1996 Source: MORI/City University

Men’s top five

Football

TV & radio listings

Sports results

Local & regional news

International/European news

Women’s top five

Medical & health news

Local & regional news

TV & radio listings

Education

Food & recipes


What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?

The economy has been top every single month since August 2008…..

Base: 967 British adults 18+, 8th – 12th August 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

43

38

33

29

16

15

14

14

13

12

Chart TitleTop mentions %

Economy

Race relations/Immigration

Inflation/Prices

NHS

Unemployment

Crime/Law and order

Pensions/benefits

Education/schools

Poverty/Inequality

Housing


19

26

23

20 2119

22 22

26

2931

34 35 34

38

58 5961

5452

55 55

52 52 52

49 49 50 51

43

Jun2012

Jul2012

Aug2012

Sep2012

Oct2012

Nov2012

Dec2012

Jan2013

Feb2013

Mar2013

Apr2013

May2013

Jun2013

Jul2013

Aug2013

39 33 38 34 31 36 33 30 26 23 18 15 15 17 5

Although in recent months its lead has narrowed…..

% concern about immigration

% concern about the economy

Gap between percentages:

Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index


Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month

Linked to a summer of rising economic optimism

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index =% improve minus % get worse


What do you think are the two most important issues facing your country/you are facing at the moment?

And do get a slightly different focus when ask about personal concerns….

Base: c. 1,300 Source: Standard Eurobarometer 79 , Spring 2013

0 10 20 30 400

10

20

30

40

50

Rising prices/inflation

Unemployment

ImmigrationEconomic situationCrime

Health and social securityPensions

Education systemTaxationHousing

Terrorism

Environment

Most important issue facing me personally

Most important issue facing country


-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

R² = 0.489858158846355

We are in a group of European countries feeling hardest hit by the last five years

Net disagree country will never be the same again

Net last five years good for country

Base: 17,678 online interviews with adults aged 16/18-64 in 23 countries, September 4-18 2012. Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor

Japan

Hungary

Turkey Russia

BelgiumSouth Africa

Argentina

Germany

USFrance

GB

Mexico Poland

Sweden

Spain

Italy

South Korea

IndonesiaAustralia

Saudi Arabia

CanadaIndia

Brazil

Net last five years bad for country

Net agree country will never be the same again


Thinking about the economic downturn, which of these statements comes closest to your view?

And we’re shaken about its effects

Base: 1,009 online British adults aged 16-75, 9-11 November 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI/RSA

31%

56%

13%


As you may know, the government has announced a number of spending cuts to help reduce the national debt. To what extent, if at all, have you and your family been affected by the cuts so far? And how concerned, if at all, are you about the effects of the cuts on you and your family in the next 12 months?

Tipping point? Much more worried about cuts to come than cuts so far

A great deal/Very concerned

A fair amount/ Fairly

concerned

Not very much/

concerned

Not at all

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

8

25

49

10

19

42

28

5

Concerned about effects in next 12 months Affected so far



What proportion of the government’s planned cuts to public spending do you think have been carried out so far?

Little awareness of full scale of cuts – though still think majority to come

100%

90-99%

80-89%

70-79%

60-69%

50-59%

40-49%

30-39%

20-29%

10-19%

1-9%

0%

Don't know

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

*

*

1

2

6

10

9

13

10

8

3

1

38

Mean: 40%



People have different ideas about the best way of dealing with Britain’s economic difficulties. Which of the following do you most agree with?

Despite all that we’re still a country divided over its deficit…..

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

52 6 41

Britain has a debt problem, built up over many years, and we have got to deal with it. If we don’t, interest rates will soar. That’s why tackling the deficit and keeping interest rates low should be

our top priority.

Without growth in our economy, we are not getting the deficit down and are borrowing more.

We need more government spending on investment to kick-start our economy and a temporary cut in taxes to support growth

37 10 53

George Osborne argues… Ed Balls argues…

Base: 1,009 British adults 18+, 9th – 11th March 2013


But do we actually know what we think?The perils of perception


3

82

78

Debt means

As you may know there is currently a lot of discussion about our national “debt” and “deficit”. Can you tell me what these words mean when talking about government finances?

Especially when considering complex issues like debt vs deficit...

Base: 1,034 British adults aged 16-75 Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013

82

47

8

Deficit meansThe difference between what government spends and the income it receives each year

The total amount of money that the government owes


Which is a tricky one after all...


And can you tell me whether the following statement is true or false?

...but public also not so clear when “use it in a sentence”...


28

52

20

TRUEFALSEDon't know

Those who got definitions right

no more likely to get this right

“The national debt will always go down if the deficit is decreasing”


Basic understanding of numbers is key to statistical literacy – and it is mixed…


What is 50 expressed as a percentage of 200?

Most get very simple questions correct...


10%

25%

50%

75%

Other

Don't know

92

3

1

1

3


What is the average of the following three numbers – 5, 10 and 15?

...and slightly trickier...


5

10

12

15

Other

Don't know

16

70

1

5

3

5


If you spin a coin twice what is the probability of getting two heads?

...but real difficulties with probabilities...


15%

25%

40%

50%

75%

Other

Don't know

1

26

2

58

1

2

10

Strong relationship with education (A-level+), but also big differences by age, younger groups more likely to get right...


There are also known biases in how we consider statistics…


What do you think the chance or probability is of the following being injured or killed in a road accident this year (whether as a road user or a pedestrian)?

A personal optimism bias...

Base: c. 500 British adults aged 16-75 Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013

About 1 in 2

About 1 in 5

About 1 in 10

About 1 in 20

About 1 in 50

About 1 in 100

About 1 in 1000

About 1 in 10,000

Don't know

2

3

8

6

7

7

20

24

23

1

2

1

2

3

5

19

40

27

You Someone in Great Britain

Mean probability:

Someone = 4.1%

You = 1.6%

Actual probability = c1.2%?


Imagine you have a life-threatening illness and your doctor has told you that you need an operation to treat it. How likely, if at all, are you to have this operation if your doctor tells you that...

...but focus on negative information

Base: c. 500 British adults aged 16-75 Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013

Very likely

Quite likely

Not very likely

Not at all likely

Don't know

56

33

3

1

7

39

38

6

2

16

10% of people who have the operation die within 5 years of the operation90% of people who have the operation are alive for at least 5 years following the operation


But does it matter? Do people consider evidence – or think their leaders do?


Politicians will take decisions partly based on what they think is right, and partly on evidence of what works. Do you think they base their decisions more on what they think is right than on evidence, more on evidence than on what they think is right, or do you think they consider them both in equal measure?

Principle-based policy-making...


52

13

16

18More on what they think is right than on evidence

More on evidence than what they think is right

On evidence and what they think is right about the same amount

Don't know


People have different attitudes towards statistics. Which of the following do you agree with most?

...but mirrors people’s own use of evidence


46

9

18

26

Statistics are more important than my own experiences or those of my family and friends in helping me keep track of how the government is doing

My own experiences or those of my family and friends are more important than statistics in helping me keep track of how the government is doing

Both equally

Neither/Don’t know


More broadly, understanding numbers is undervalued?


Which of the following things would you feel most embarrassed about admitting to friends and family?

We’re not embarrassed about lack of understanding of numbers...

Base: 516 British adults aged 16-75, interviews conducted online 9 th-15th April 2013 Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013

I'm not very good with numbers

I'm not very good at reading and writing

Neither

Don't know

6

15

75

5


Thinking about your child/if you had a child, which of the following would make you most proud?

...and there’s little pride in doing it well

Base: 516 British adults aged 16-75, interviews conducted online 9 th-15th April 2013 Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013

If they were very good with numbers

If they were very good at reading and writing

Neither

Don't know

13

55

16

15


Which can mean that public’s views on policy issues are based on shaky ground….


In your opinion, is the number of people coming to live in the UK from other countries too high, too low or about right?

Lot of concern about immigration....

Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013

76

14

2 8

Too high

About right

Too low

Don't know

Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75

Legitimate concerns, driven by number of factors...


...but there is also huge over-estimation of scale

Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75, *British Social Attitudes Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013 ; *Detailed country of birth and nationality analysis from the 2011 Census of England and Wales, (May 2013) ONS. **Immigration Statistics, January to March 2013, (May 2013) Home Office.

What percentage of the United Kingdom

population do you think are immigrants to

this country (i.e. not born in the UK)?

Median unprompted

Actual

26

13


0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 400

10

20

30

40

We’re not alone in this...

Source: Sides, J. and Citrin, J. (2007) How large the huddled masses? The causes and consequences of Public misperceptions about immigrant populations. Paper presented at 2007 Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Sciences

Association, Chicago, IL.

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 400

10

20

30

40

Actual percentage foreign-born

Estimated percentage foreign-born

Lux

SwitzUS

UKPort

Italy

Den

Ger

France


According to the last Census in 2011, the percentage of the UK population that was born in another country is actually 13%. Why do you think the percentage is much higher?

Why do people believe it is higher?

Base: 376 British adults aged 16-75 (all who thought the percentage of immigrants in the UK was 26% or higher) Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013

56

46

36

34

23

19

16

10

1

1

3

People come into the country illegally so aren’t counted

I still think the proportion is much higher than 13%

What I see in my local area

What I see when I visit other towns/cities

I was just guessing

Information seen on TV

Information seen in newspapers

The experiences of friends and family

I misunderstood the question

Other

Don’t know


Which two or three, if any, of the following areas do you think the UK Government spends the most money on?

We’re also very wrong on government spending...


45

38

30

29

26

24

16

14

4

11

Interest payments on the national debt

Health

Working age benefits

Defence

Overseas aid

State pensions

Education and schools

Policing and criminal justice

Transport

Don’t know

Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013; Government spending by department, 2011-12: get the data, (December 2012) Guardian; Medium-term forecast for all DWP benefits, (April 2013) DWP.


38

30

24

16

45

29

4

26

14

11

£52bn

£107bn

Which two or three, if any, of the following areas do you think the UK Government spends the most money on?

...easier to see when re-order by actual spend...


Actual

£48bn

£82bn

£37bn

£8bn

£74bn

£6bn

£12bn

Interest payments on the national debt

Health

Working age benefits

Defence

Overseas aid

State pensions

Education and schools

Policing and criminal justice

Transport

Don’t knowSource: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013; Government spending by department, 2011-12: get the data, (December 2012) Guardian;

Medium-term forecast for all DWP benefits, (April 2013) DWP.


Out of every £100 spent from the welfare budget, can you tell me how much of that is claimed fraudulently (i.e. people who dishonestly claim more benefits than they are entitled to)?

Biggest misperception on benefit fraud...


Mean estimate £20

Actual 70p

Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013; National Statistics fraud and error in the benefit system: preliminary 2012/13 estimates (Great Britain) first release, (June2013) DWP.


When you were answering the last question, which of the following activities, if any, were you thinking of as fraud?

Although may be measuring different things?


79

75

67

55

46

42

34

32

9

People providing false information to claim more benefits than they are entitled to

People faking disabilities or illness

Not reporting changes in circumstances e.g. a partner moving in

Working cash-in-hand

People on unemployment benefit not trying to find work

People from abroad/immigrants claiming benefits

People claiming benefits who haven’t paid any taxes/national insurance

People having more children so that they are entitled to more benefits

Don’t know

} 45%


So are we all out of a job?


If you do want to predict the future…..

Sweet FA Prediction Model ©

• The election result is decided by the colour of the home strip of the holders of the FA Cup at the time of the election• Red and yellow = Labour• Blue and white = Conservative



Correct?

1950 Lab Wolves Yellow (Old Gold) √

1951 Con Newcastle Black & White √

1955 Con Newcastle Black & White √

1959 Con Forest Red X

1964 Lab West Ham Red (claret) √

1966 Lab Liverpool Red √

1970 Con Chelsea Blue √

F’ 74 Hung Sunderland Red & White √

O’ 74 Lab Liverpool Red √


Correct?

1979 Con Ipswich Blue √

1983 Con Man Utd Red X

1987 Con Coventry Sky blue √

1992 Con Spurs White √

1997 Lab Man Utd Red √

2001 Lab Liverpool Red √

2005 Lab Man Utd Red √

2010 Con Man Utd Red X


Brighton missed

penalty in dying

seconds of first final


Thanks for [email protected]

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