scotland's key challenges - ipsos mori scotland

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1

SCOTLAND’S

KEY CHALLENGESMark Diffley, Director

2

Poverty

Economy

Health

Housing Education

Environment

Crime & Justice

Politics

KEY CHALLENGES

Immigration/

refugee crisis

3

36%

34%

32%

28%

20%

19%

16%

12%

12%

12%

NHS/Hospitals/Healthcare

Immigration/immigrants

Economy

Poverty/Inequality

Unemployment

Defence/foreign affairs/terrorism

Education/Schools

Low pay/fair wages

Ageing society/Social care

Devolution/Scottish Parliament

ISSUES FACING SCOTLAND

SOURCE: IPSOS MORI ISSUES INDEX (2015); BASE: 1,256

4

ECONOMY

5

52%

HOW ARE YOU AND YOUR HOUSEHOLD

MANAGING FINANCIALLY THESE DAYS?

44%1999 2014

Quite well / very well

SOURCE: IPSOS MORI SCOTTISH HOUSEHOLD SURVEY (1999, 2014)

6

35%

38%

24%

2%

Stay the same

FINANCIAL SITUATION

OF HOUSEHOLDS

IN NEXT 10 YEARS

SOURCE: IPSOS MORI SCOTTISH PUBLIC OPINION MONITOR (2015); BASE: 1,000

ImproveGet worse

Don’t know

7

SOURCE: IPSOS MORI POLITICAL MONITOR; BASE: C1,000 EACH MONTH

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Jan

1997

Jun

1997

No

v 1

997

Ap

r 1998

Sep

1998

Feb

1999

Jul 1999

Dec

1999

May 2

000

Oct

2000

Mar

2001

Au

g 2

001

Jan

2002

Jun

2002

No

v 2

002

Ap

r 2003

Sep

2003

Feb

2004

Jul 2004

Dec

2004

May 2

005

Oct

2005

Mar

2006

Au

g 2

006

Jan

2007

Jun

2007

No

v 2

007

Ap

r 2008

Sep

2008

Feb

2009

Jul 2009

Dec

2009

May 2

010

Oct

2010

Mar

2011

Au

g 2

011

Jan

2012

Jun

2012

No

v 2

012

Ap

r 2013

Sep

2013

Feb

2014

Jul 2014

Dec

2014

May 2

015

Oct

2015

Mar

2016

Au

g 2

016

NO COLLAPSE IN UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE POST BREXIT

8

BUT MORE CONCERN IN SCOTLAND

21%

23%52%

5%

Positive

Negative

Don’t know

Make no

difference


9

POVERTY &

INEQUALITY

10

800,000

POVERTY DOWN?

1,000,0001995 2015

Approximate number of individuals living in households with

below 60% of median income

SOURCE: OFFICE FOR NATIONAL STATISTICS (2015)

11

BIGGEST CONCERNS FOR THOSE STRUGGLING

SOURCE: IPSOS MORI GLASGOW HOUSEHOLD SURVEY (2014)

BASE: ALL WHO WERE FINDING IT DIFFICULT TO MANAGE ON THEIR INCOME (68)

63%

46%

39%

35%

22%

13%

10%

Cost of gas and electricity

Food cost

Cost of Council Tax

Rent cost

Petrol

Reduction in working hours

Threat of redundancy

12

Use prepayment meters for

gas and electricity

Use pay as you go mobile phones

Use highinterest credit

providers

EVIDENCE OF A POVERTY PREMIUM

Low income households more likely than average to…

SOURCE: IPSOS MORI IMPACT OF THE POVERTY PREMIUM IN SCOTLAND (2016)

Not switch their energy

supplier

13

SOURCE: IPSOS MORI IMPACT OF THE POVERTY PREMIUM IN SCOTLAND (2016)

BASE: ALL WHO HAD TO CUT BACK BECAUSE OF THE COST OF BILLS OR REPAYMENTS (78))

14

PERSISTENT IN-WORK POVERTY

2013 /

2014

47% 50%

1998 /

1999

SOURCE: OFFICE FOR NATIONAL STATISTICS (2015)

15

MANAGING FINANCIALLY

SOURCE: IPSOS MORI GLASGOW HOUSEHOLD SURVEY (2014)

BASE: ALL WORKING RESPONDENTS (478)

56%

40%

24%

36%

48%

43%

7%

12%

33%

Paid more than the Living Wage

Paid about the same as the Living Wage

Paid less than the Living Wage

Living comfortably Coping Finding it difficult

16

THE EXPERIENCE OF IN-WORK POVERTY

Trading off

expenses - e.g.

‘eating vs

heating’

Anxiety

depression and

relationship

problems

Combined cost

of housing,

food and fuel

unaffordable

Stuck in poor,

quality, low

paid work

SOURCE: IPSOS MORI ‘HARD WORK, HARD TIMES: IN WORK POVERTY IN GLASGOW’ (2014)

Lack of

financial

resilience and

debt

Reliant on

benefits to get

by

17

PERCEIVED CAUSES OF POVERTY

13%

35%

23%

21%

8%

19%

21%

40%

% Glasgow % Britain

Unfairness in our

society

Laziness or lack of

will power

Being unlucky

An inevitable part of

modern life

SOURCE: IPSOS MORI GLASGOW HOUSEHOLD SURVEY (2013) AND BRITISH SOCIAL ATTITUDES SURVEY (2013)

18

Extend Living Wage coverage in sectors where wages are lowest

Ensure people are progressively better off in work

Increased provision of affordable childcare

TACKLING POVERTY

Pressure energy suppliers to reduce payment premiums

Raise awareness of benefit entitlements and financial support services

19

HOUSING

20

AVERAGE HOUSE PRICE IN SCOTLAND

1995

£ 164,326

2016

SOURCE: REGISTERS OF SCOTLAND (2016)

21

ASPIRATIONS ARE NOT BEING MET

49%

59%

95%

46%

37%

4%

Agree Disagree

Getting on the property ladder is one of the

most important ways of getting on in life

Everyone should have a right to be able to live in a

decent quality home whether or not they own it

These days it is unrealistic to think you can be

on the property ladder by the age of 35


22

‘GENERATIONAL GULF‘ MEANS IT MAY GET WORSE

69%

90%

“It is harder for me to buy or rent a

home than it was for my parents’”

“It will be harder for children today to

buy or rent a home than it was for me”


23

COST, SIZE AND CONDITION ALL CONCERNS

Too

small

Owner occupied

Private rented

Social rented

9%

21%

19%

Too

expensive

8%

28%

20%

Poor

condition

4%

16%

14%


24

HEALTH

25

HEALTHCARE IS OUR TOP ISSUE

36%

34%

32%

28%

20%

19%

16%

12%

12%

12%



Economy

Poverty/Inequality

Unemployment


Education/Schools

Low pay/fair wages




26

WE ARE LIVING LONGER

1995 2015

Women

Men 72

78

77

81

SOURCE: NATIONAL RECORDS OF SCOTLAND (2015)

27

MOST OF USE THINK WE ARE IN GOOD HEALTH

2% 5% 7% 11%18%13%

15%17%

22%

25%

84% 80% 76%68%

57%

5th (Least deprived) 4th 3rd 2nd 1st (Most deprived)

Bad Health Fair Health Good Health

SOURCE: SCOTTISH HEALTH SURVEY (2014)

28

SOURCE: IPSOS MORI SALSUS (2013)

28%29%

27% 25%

31%

39%

22%24%

2006 2008 2010 2013

13 year old girls 13 year olds boys 15 year olds girls 15 year old boys

BUT MENTAL HEALTH A GROWING ISSUE

29

EDUCATION

30

ATTAINMENT GAP

Numeracy Reading

Least deprived 52%

25%

96%

68%Most deprived

SOURCE: SCOTTISH GOVERNMENT SCOTTISH SURVEY OF LITERACY AND NUMERACY (2015)

31

ASPIRATIONS GAP IN EDUCATION

30%

64%

43%

69%

16%

57%

23%

59%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

SIMD1 SIMD5 SIMD1 SIMD5

2008/9 2013/14

% of S4 pupils expecting to go to university % of school leavers going to university

SOURCE: IPSOS MORI SALSUS (2008/9) AND (2013/4)

32

ENVIRONMENT

33

MOST HOUSEHOLDS RECYCLE

Paper Card Plastic Metal Glass

83% 81% 80% 77% 75%

SOURCE: IPSOS MORI SCOTTISH HOUSEHOLD SURVEY (2014); BASE: 3,530

34

BUT OTHER BEHAVIOURS LESS COMMON

SOURCE: IPSOS MORI GLASGOW HOUSEHOLD SURVEY (2016); BASE: 1,023

73%

Recycle

41%

Walk, cycle or use

public transport

instead of drive

34%

Buy local produce

35

VIEWS ON CLIMATE CHANGE SOMEWHAT MIXED

SOURCE: IPSOS MORI SCOTTISH HOUSEHOLD SURVEY (2014); BASE: 9,800

45%

26%

8%

11%6%

An immediate and

urgent problem

More of a problem for

the future

Not really a

problem

I’m still not convinced it is

happening

Don’t know

36

BARRIERS TO CHANGING BEHAVIOUR

You don’t think

about [environmental

issues] unless they

affect you.”

People are more

concerned about

finances and the

economy…trying to

keep a roof over their

heads, keep a job.”

Before, things that

you would buy would

be organically farmed.

now that's less of a

concern. The concern is

paying for it.”

SOURCE: IPSOS MORI ‘THE KEY ISSUES FOR SCOTLAND’S ENVIRONMENT’ (2013)

Not an immediate

problem

Financial security

takes priority Too expensive

37

EXPECTATIONS OF GOVERNMENT

Lead by example

Encourage and

enable behaviour

change

Take tougher

stance with businesses

SOURCE: IPSOS MORI ‘THE KEY ISSUES FOR SCOTLAND’S ENVIRONMENT’ (2013)

38

CRIME AND JUSTICE

39

CRIME NOT A TOP ISSUE

36%

34%

32%

28%

20%

19%

16%

12%

12%

12%



Economy

Poverty/Inequality

Unemployment


Education/Schools

Low pay/fair wages




40

RECORDED

SOURCE: SCOTTISH GOVERNMENT (2014)

CRIME VS

SURVEY DATA

41

RISE OF CYBERCRIME

SOURCE: SCOTTISH PUBLIC OPINION MONITOR (2015); BASE: ALL INTERNET USERS (888)

29%

Directed to fake

websites asking

for personal

details

22%

Virus or other

computer

infection

11%

Exposed to

illegal/

upsetting

images

9%

Unauthorised

access to/use of

personal data

42

HATE CRIME AND HARASSMENT

SOURCE: SCOTTISH CRIME AND JUSTICE SURVEY (2014/15); IPSOS MORI GLASGOW HOUSEHOLD SURVEY (2015)

10%

15%

15%

26%

19%

22%

33%

3%

7%

10%

10%

14%

21%

34%

Sexual orientation

Religion

Disability

Sectarianism

Age

Gender

Ethnic origin

Scotland (2014/15) Glasgow (2015)

BASE: ALL THOSE WHO HAD BEEN INSULTED, PESTERED OR INTIMIDATED ON THE

GROUNDS OF A PROTECTED CHARACTERISTIC (136 SCOTLAND, 124 GLASGOW)

9%

12%

Scotland

GlasgowBASE: 5,750 SCOTLAND; 1,021 GLASGOW

43

POLITICAL

ATTITUDES

44

THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER REFERENDUM ON

SOURCE: SCOTTISH PUBLIC OPINION MONITOR (2016); BASE: 1,000

SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE IN THE NEXT 2 YEARS

28%

13%5%9%

45%

Strongly

agree

Tend

to agree

Strongly

disagree

Neither/

don’t know

Tend to

disagree

Sept 2016

35%

13%8%9%

36%

Strongly

agree

Tend

to agree

Strongly

disagree

Tend to

disagree

June 2016

Neither/

don’t know

45

SHOULD SCOTLAND BE AN INDEPENDENT COUNTRY?

SOURCE: SCOTTISH PUBLIC OPINION MONITOR (2016)

48%52% YesNo

BASE: ALL GIVING VOTING INTENTION AND CERTAIN TO VOTE (831))

46

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

19

78

19

79

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

Su

pp

ort

fo

r in

dep

en

den

ce (

%)

Introduction of

the poll tax in

Scotland

Devolution

referendum

Scottish

Parliament opens

Devolution

referendum

SNP form

minority

government

SNP form majority

government

Edinburgh

Agreement

signed

Independence

Referendum

SNP minority government

with Conservative opposition

EU Referendum

SUPPORT FOR INDEPENDENCE – LONG-TERM TREND

SOURCE: IPSOS MORI POLLING; 1999-07 DATA TAKEN FROM SCOTTISH SOCIAL ATTITUDES SURVEY

47

BREXIT

48

DID BREXIT CHANGE YOUR MIND ON INDEPENDENCE?

SOURCE: SCOTTISH PUBLIC OPINION MONITOR (2016); BASE: 1,000

15%

79%

6%Yes

No

Don’t know

49

BREXIT: UK WIDE 9 IN 10 WOULD VOTE THE SAME WAY

SOURCE: IPSOS MORI POLL (2016); BASE: 1,077

92%

4%3%

Vote the

same way

Change

my vote

Don’t know

50

SCOTS DON’T IDENTIFY WITH THE EU

• People in mainland Europe seen

as more European than Scots

• EU ‘remote’, with no clear,

obvious impact on people’s day

to day lives

• The UK lacks influence within

Europe

• Limited knowledge about the

EU, what it does, how it

operates, its institutions and key

figures

• Little understanding of what UK

membership entails and what

the UK gets in return for its

investment

• Almost no one can name their

MEP

We have no strong

European identity

We have little

knowledge about the EU

We had huge influence

in the beginning…our

influence is dripping

away, and that's all I

see in the future…until

we're one of the

smaller voices in

Europe.“

“All our European

members of

parliament… are

politically aligned

against each other

and frankly, I don't

know what they are

or who they are.”

SOURCE: IPSOS MORI EU REFERENDUM FOCUS GROUPS (2016)

51

IMMIGRATION

AND THE

REFUGEE

CRISIS

52

RESPONSE TO REFUGEE CRISIS

36%

38%

60%

9%

8%

11%

51%

51%

26%

3%

2%

3%

The EU has respondend well

The UK has responded well

Scotland has responded well

Agree Neither Disagreee Don’t know


53

SOURCE: IPSOS GLOBAL ADVISOR AND SCOTTISH PUBLIC OPINION MONITOR (2016)

23

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

43

44

57

France

Turkey

Belgium

Sweden

Italy

Poland

Germany

Great Britain

Spain

Hungary

Scotland

% “agree”“I’M CONFIDENT THAT

MOST REFUGEES WHO

COME TO THE UK WILL

SUCCESSFULLY INTEGRATE

INTO THEIR NEW SOCIETY”

54


24

27

31

38

40

44

44

45

48

55

64

Spain

Scotland

Great Britain

Belgium

Poland

Sweden

Germany

France

Italy

Hungary

Turkey

% “agree”“WE MUST CLOSE OUR

BORDERS TO REFUGEES

ENTIRELY - WE CAN’T

ACCEPT ANY AT

THIS TIME”

55


30

32

47

51

52

54

55

61

61

62

62

Spain

Sweden

Scotland

Great Britain

Germany

France

Belgium

Turkey

Italy

Poland

Hungary

% “agree”“MOST FOREIGNERS WHO

WANT TO GET TO MY

COUNTRY AS A REFUGEE

REALLY AREN’T REFUGEES.

THEY JUST WANT TO

COME HERE FOR

ECONOMIC REASONS,

OR TO TAKE ADVANTAGE

OF OUR WELFARE

SERVICES”

56


16

53

57

58

63

63

67

70

71

72

83

Spain

Belgium

Sweden

Scotland

Poland

Great Britain

France

Italy

Germany

Hungary

Turkey

% “agree”“THERE ARE TERRORISTS

PRETENDING TO BE

REFUGEES WHO WILL

ENTER MY COUNTRY

TO CAUSE VIOLENCE

AND DESTRUCTION”

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