ipsos mori: political monitor september 2012

POLITICAL MONITOR September 2012

Contacts:

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Voting Intentions

3 Voting Intention: all giving an opinion vs. those “certain to vote”

Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 15th – 17th September 2012, all certain to vote = 567 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Conservative lead = -10

All giving a voting intention: 81%

Labour

Conservative

Lib Dem

Other

How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?”

32%

42%

12%

14%

All certain to vote: 55%

Conservative lead = -11

30%

41%

13%

16%

4

0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan-03 M

ar-03 M

ay-03 Jul-03 S

ep-03 N

ov-03 Jan-04 M

ar-04 M

ay-04 Jul-04 S

ep-04 N

ov-04 Jan-05 M

ar-05 M

ay-05 Jul-05 S

ep-05 N

ov-05 Jan-06 M

ar-06 M

ay-06 Jul-06 S

ep-06 N

ov-06 Jan-07 M

ar-07 M

ay-07 Jul-07 S

ep-07 N

ov-07 Jan-08 M

ar-08 M

ay-08 Jul-08 S

ep-08 N

ov-08 Jan-09 M

ar-09 M

ay-09 Jul-09 S

ep-09 N

ov-09 Jan-10 M

ar-10 M

ay-10 Jul-10 S

ep-10 N

ov-10 Jan-11 M

ar-11 M

ay-11 Jul-11 S

ep-11 N

ov-11 Jan-12 M

ar-12 M

ay-12 Jul-12 S

ep-12

41%

Howard elected (Nov 03)

2005 General Election

Cameron elected (Dec 05)

Brown as PM (Jun 07)

13%

30%

2010 General Election

Base: c. 1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Voting Intentions January ‘03 – September ‘12 (all certain to vote) How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

Satisfaction with the Coalition and Party Leaders

6

58

66

47

64

34

23

38

28

Net satisfaction

Net change from August

2012

-24 -8

-43 -16

-9 -7

-36 -8

Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 15th – 17th September 2012

Satisfaction with leaders and the Government How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country /doing his job as Prime Minister /Deputy Prime Minister/Leader of the Labour Party?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

David Cameron

The Government

Nick Clegg

Ed Miliband

% Satisfied

% Dissatisfied

7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Jul-07

Sep-07

Nov-07

Jan-08

Mar-08

May-08

Jul-08

Sep-08

Nov-08

Jan-09

Mar-09

May-09

Jul-09

Sep-09

Nov-09

Jan-10

Mar-10

May-10

Jul-10

Sep-10

Nov-10

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-11

Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-12

Sep-12

23%

% s

atis

fied

Cameron

Clegg

Campbell

Clegg elected (Jan 08)

General Election

34% Miliband

38%

Brown

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country / doing his job as … ?

Satisfaction with Party leaders August ‘07 – September ‘12

8

Net

sat

isfa

ctio

n

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister?

Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers

THATCHER

BLAIR MAJOR BROWN

CAMERON


Number of months from becoming Prime Minister

Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone

9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60



Satisfied

Dissatisfied

David Cameron (satisfaction) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party/ as Prime Minister?

January 2006 – September 2012 September 2012

Satisfied Don’t know

Dissatisfied

34%

58%

7%

Net = -24


10

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

100

Base: 254 Conservative supporters 18+, 15th – 17th September 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

David Cameron (satisfaction among Tory supporters) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party/ as Prime Minister?

69%

27%

4% Satisfied

Don’t know

Dissatisfied

September 2012

Net = +42

January 2006 – September 2012


11


Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader

HAGUE (1997-2001) DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003)

Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2012) How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?

CAMERON (2005-2010)

BLAIR (1994-1997)

MILIBAND (2010-2012)

HOWARD (2003-2005)


Net

sat

isfa

ctio

n

12

10

20

30

40

50

60 Dissatisfied

Satisfied

Ed Miliband (satisfaction)

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?


October 2010 – September 2012 September 2012


Dissatisfied

38%

47%

14%

Net = -9


13

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Base: 342 Labour supporters 18+, 15th - 17th September 2012

Ed Miliband (satisfaction among Labour supporters) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?

September 2012

Net = +21


Dissatisfied


Dissatisfied

Satisfied

October 2010 – September 2012

55% 34%

11%

14

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


Dissatisfied

Satisfied

Nick Clegg (satisfaction) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/ as Deputy Prime Minister?

Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 15th – 17th September 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

January 2008 – September 2012 September 2012

23%

66%

11%


Dissatisfied Net = -43

15

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

100

Base: 100 Liberal Democrat supporters 18+, 15th – 17th September 2012

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

September 2012

43%

51%

6% Satisfied Don’t know

Dissatisfied

Net = -8

Nick Clegg (satisfaction among Lib Dem supporters) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/ as Deputy Prime Minister?

January 2008 – September 2012



Economic Optimism

17 Economic Optimism Index Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?

Improve

Stay the same Get worse


26%

36%

35%

3% Improve Don’t know

Get worse Stay the same

September 2012

EOI = -9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Jan-

04

May

-04

Sep

-04

Jan-

05

May

-05

Sep

-05

Jan-

06

May

-06

Sep

-06

Jan-

07

May

-07

Sep

-07

Jan-

08

May

-08

Sep

-08

Jan-

09

May

-09

Sep

-09

Jan-

10

May

-10

Sep

-10

Jan-

11

May

-11

Sep

-11

Jan-

12

May

-12

Sep

-12


18

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Jan-

97

May

-97

Sep

-97

Jan-

98

May

-98

Sep

-98

Jan-

99

May

-99

Sep

-99

Jan-

00

May

-00

Sep

-00

Jan-

01

May

-01

Sep

-01

Jan-

02

May

-02

Sep

-02

Jan-

03

May

-03

Sep

-03

Jan-

04

May

-04

Sep

-04

Jan-

05

May

-05

Sep

-05

Jan-

06

May

-06

Sep

-06

Jan-

07

May

-07

Sep

-07

Jan-

08

May

-08

Sep

-08

Jan-

09

May

-09

Sep

-09

Jan-

10

May

-10

Sep

-10

Jan-

11

May

-11

Sep

-11

Jan-

12

May

-12

Sep

-12

Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month

+28

-46 -56 -48

+23

The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index In

dex

(get

bet

ter m

inus

get

wor

se)

-64


-9

Leader image

20

59%57%

54%

54%

46%

38%

37%

35%

34%

34%

31%

26%

15%

17%

18%

22%26%

29%

35%

30%

16%

21%

37%36%

Cameron Eloquent

Is a good person

Prime Ministerial

Likeable

Understands people like me

Tough enough for the job of PM

Represents Britain

Leader image

In your opinion, which party leader, David Cameron or Ed Miliband, is stronger on each of the following?


Smart enough for the job of PM

Has the right values

Will protect British jobs

A man of faith

Would be fun to meet in person

Miliband


ipsos mori: political monitor september 2012

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