ipsos mori political monitor - november 2016

Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)

© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information

and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

1

Ipsos MORINovember 2016 POLITICAL MONITOR

3Political Monitor | November 2016 | Final | Public

42%

33%

7%

3%

10%5%

HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Base: 1,013 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th November 2016 ; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it

depends vote in General Elections = 772. Headline voting intention is based on a method that would have given most accurate results in the

2015 GE.

Voting Intention

41%

33%

8%

3%

10%5%

ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTIONHEADLINE VOTING INTENTION

CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +8

CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +9

CONSERVATIVE

LABOUR

UKIP

GREEN

LIB DEM

OTHER


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

May 0

3

No

v 0

3

May 0

4

No

v 0

4

May 0

5

No

v 0

5

May 0

6

No

v 0

6

May 0

7

No

v 0

7

May 0

8

No

v 0

8

May 0

9

No

v 0

9

May 1

0

No

v 1

0

May 1

1

No

v 1

1

May 1

2

No

v 1

2

May 1

3

No

v 1

3

May 1

4

No

v 1

4

May 1

5

No

v 1

5

May 1

6

No

v 1

6

2015 General Election

Miliband

elected

(Sept 10)

Corbyn

elected

(Sept 15)

May

as PM

(July 16)

HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?


Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote

and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections

Headline voting intention: April ‘03 – Oct ‘16

2005 General Election 2010 General Election

Cameron

elected

(Dec 05)

Brown

as PM

(June 07)

CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM


SATISFACTION WITH THE

GOVERNMENT AND

PARTY LEADERS


Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn Tim Farron The Government

23%

36%

41%

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/HER JOB

AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS ?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: : 1,013 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th November 2016 . Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied

Satisfaction with leaders and the Government

43%

47%

10%

+4%swing from October 2016

-2.5%swing from October 2016

-0.5%swing from October 2016

+6%swing from October 2016

+24 Net -29 Net -13 Net -4 Net

SATISFIED 54% SATISFIED 28% SATISFIED 23% SATISFIED 43%

DISSATISFIED 30% DISSATISFIED 57% DISSATISFIED 36% DISSATISFIED 47%

54%30%

16%28%

57%

14%


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS … ?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month

Satisfaction with Party leaders Sept 2015 – November’16

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Jan

16

Feb

16

Mar

16

Ap

r 16

May 1

6

Ju

n 1

6

Ju

l 16

Au

g 1

6

Sep

16

Oct

16

No

v 1

6

MAY CORBYN FARRON

54%

28%

23%


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME

MINISTER?


Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers

MAY CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER

Net

sati

sfact

ion

NUMBER OF MONTHS FROM BECOMING PRIME MINISTER

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

May


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE …

PARTY?


Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2016)


Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader

Net

sati

sfact

ion

HOWARD BLAIR (94-97) DUNCAN SMITH (01-03) MILIBAND (10-15) CAMERON (05-10) HAGUE (97-01) CORBYN (15-present)


ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME

MINISTER?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: : 1,013 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th November 2016

Theresa May (satisfaction)

54%

30%

16%

November 2016 August 2016 - November 2016

SATISFIED 54%

DISSATISFIED 30%

DON’T KNOW 16%

Net = +24

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dissatisfied

Satisfied


ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME

MINISTER?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 361 Conservative supporters 18+ 11th – 14th November 2016

Theresa May (satisfaction amongst Conservative supporters

87%

4%9%

November 2016

SATISFIED 87%

DISSATISFIED 4%

DON’T KNOW 9%

Net = +83

August 2016 - November 2016

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dissatisfied

Satisfied


28%

57%

14%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

rl-1

6

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

SATISFIED 28%

DISSATISFIED 57%

DON’T KNOW 14%

Net = -29

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF

THE LABOUR PARTY?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,013 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th November 2016

Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)

November 2016 September 2015 – November 2016

Satisfied

Dissatisfied


47%

41%

12%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

rl-1

6

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

SATISFIED 47%

DISSATISFIED 41%

DON’T KNOW 12%

Net = +6

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF

THE LABOUR PARTY?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 286 Labour supporters 18+, 11th – 14th November 2016

Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction amongst Labour supporters)


Satisfied

Dissatisfied


23%

36%

41%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

rl-1

6

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

SATISFIED 23%

DISSATISFIED 36%

DON’T KNOW 41%

Net = -13

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE

LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?


Tim Farron (satisfaction)


Satisfied

Dissatisfied


ECONOMIC

OPTIMISM


26%

23%

47%

5%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Oct

-04

Ap

r-05

Oct

-05

May-0

6

Dec-

06

Au

g-0

7

Mar-

08

Sep

-08

Mar-

09

Sep

-09

Mar-

10

Oct

-10

Ap

r-11

Oct

-11

Ap

r-12

Oct

-12

Ap

r-13

Oct

-13

Ap

r-14

Oct

-14

Ap

r-152

No

v-1

5

May-1

6

No

v-1

6

IMPROVE 26%

STAY THE SAME 23%

GET WORSE 47%

DON’T KNOW 5%

EOI = -21

DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE

SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: 1,013 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th November 2016

Economic Optimism Index

November 2016


DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE

SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?


The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Mar

1997

Jul 1997

No

v 1

997

Mar

1998

Jul 1998

No

v 1

998

Mar

1999

Jul 1999

No

v 1

999

Mar

2000

Jul 2000

No

v 2

000

Mar

2001

Jul 2001

No

v 2

001

Mar

2002

Jul 2002

No

v 2

002

Mar

2003

Jul 2003

No

v 2

003

Mar

2004

Jul 2004

No

v 2

004

Mar

2005

Jul 2005

No

v 2

005

Mar

2006

Jul 2006

No

v 2

006

Mar

2007

Jul 2007

No

v 2

007

Mar

2008

Jul 2008

No

v 2

008

Mar

2009

Jul 2009

No

v 2

009

Mar

2010

Jul 2010

No

v 2

010

Mar

2011

Jul 2011

No

v 2

011

Mar

2012

Jul 2012

No

v 2

012

Mar

2013

Jul 2013

No

v 2

013

Mar

2014

Jul 2014

No

v 2

014

Mar

2015

Jul 2015

No

v 2

015

Mar

2016

Jul 2016

No

v 2

016

-21


Autumn Statement


39%

28%

34%

CAN YOU TELL ME WHETHER YOU ARE SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY PHILLIP HAMMOND IS

DOING HIS JOB AS CHANCELLOR OF THE EXCHEQUER?


Phillip Hammond (satisfaction)

SATISFIED 39%

DISSATISFIED 28%

DON’T KNOW 34%

Net = +9


66%

44%

67%

52%

45% 45%

34%

39%

44%42%

37%39%

36%37%

18%

31%

17%

24%

28%

38%

34%

52%

44%

56%

45%

42%

48%

52%

34%

41%

55%57%

48%46%

49%47%

42%

32%

28%

36%

40%

36%38%

28%27%

47%

43%44%

35%

40%

27%

39%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Ma

r-76

Ma

r-77

Ap

r-7

8

Jul-

80

Ma

r-82

Jun

-83

Ma

r-85

Ma

r-86

Ma

r-87

Ma

r-88

Ma

r-89

Ma

r-90

Ma

r-91

Ma

r-92

Ma

r-93

De

c-9

3

De

c-9

4

No

v-9

5

De

c-9

5

No

v-9

6

De

c-9

6

Jul-

97

Fe

b-9

8

Ma

r-98

Ma

r-99

Fe

b-0

0

Ma

r-00

Jul-

00

Se

p-0

0

No

v-0

0

Ma

r-01

Ap

r-0

2

Ap

r-0

3

Ma

r-04

No

v-0

5

Fe

b-0

6

De

c-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ma

r-08

Ma

r-10

Jun

-10

Mar-

11

De

c-1

1

Apr-

12

Ma

r-13

Apr-

14

Ma

r-15

Jul-15

No

v-1

5

Feb-1

6

Ma

r-16

Nov-1

6

CAN YOU TELL ME WHETHER YOU ARE SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY PHILLIP HAMMOND IS

DOING HIS JOB AS CHANCELLOR OF THE EXCHEQUER?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,023 British adults 18+, 19th – 22nd March 2016

Phillip Hammond (satisfaction)


% saying ‘satisfied’Healey MajorHowe Lawson Lamont Clarke Brown Darling Osborne Hammond


CAN YOU TELL ME WHETHER YOU ARE SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY ……. IS DOING HIS JOB AS CHANCELLOR

OF THE EXCHEQUER?


SATISFIED DISSATISFIED

39

40

28

52

31

37

39%

28

23

44

20

49

40

37%

Phillip Hammond (Nov' 16)

George Osborne (Jun' 10)

Alistair Darling (Mar' 08)

Gordon Brown (Jul' 97)

Ken Clarke (Dec' 93)

Norman Lamont (Mar' 91)

John Major (Mar' 90)

Base: 1,013 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th November 2016

Chancellor’s first satisfaction ratings

-21%

Economic Optimism

Index that month

-5%

-47%

+10%

-6%

-1%

-43%


41%

30%

18%

10%

46%

28%

8%

18%

WHO DO YOU THINK WOULD MAKE THE MOST CAPABLE CHANCELLOR, THE CONSERVATIVE’S

PHILLIP HAMMOND, OR LABOUR’S JOHN MCDONNELL?


Most capable Chancellor

46%

29%

10%

15%

Osborne vs Ed Balls

March 2015

Osborne vs John McDonnell

February 2016

Hammond vs McDonnell

November 2016

CONSERVATIVE LABOUR NEITHER DON’T KNOW


SINCE THE GOVERNMENT UNDER THERESA MAY WAS FORMED IN JULY, DO YOU THINK THE

GOVERNMENT HAS DONE A GOOD JOB OR A BAD JOB AT MANAGING THE ECONOMY?


Managing the economy - short term trends

Base: 1,013 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th November 2016 Previously asked as ‘Since it was elected last year, do you think the government

has done a good job or a bad job at managing the economy?’

GOOD JOB BAD JOB DON’T KNOW

56%

42%

51%

37%

47%

30%

7%

11%

20%

March 2015 May 2016 November 2016



GOVERNMENT HAS DONE A GOOD JOB OR A BAD JOB AT MANAGING THE ECONOMY?


Managing the economy- long tem trends

Base: 1,013 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th November 2016 Previously asked as ‘Since it was elected…., do you think the government has done

a good job or a bad job at managing the economy?’

GOOD JOB BAD JOB

51

42

56

47

36

37

59

62

71

52

60

50

60

30

47

37

46

55

59

32

28

16

32

24

29

24

November 2016

May 2016

March 2015

March 2014

October 2011

April 2010

May 2007

April 2005

May 2001

November 2000

November 1999

November 1998

April 1998


WHICH ONE OF THESE, IF ANY, COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR OPINION ON CUTTING PUBLIC

SPENDING TO REDUCE THE DEFICIT?


The deficit

NOVEMBER 2016 NOVEMBER 2015

33

31

27

2

1

6

34

32

27

1

1

6

It is still necessary to reduce the deficit by cutting public

spending

It was necessary in the last parliament to reduce the deficit by

cutting public spending, but it is not necessary any more

It was never necessary to reduce the deficit by cutting public

spending

Other

None of these

Don’t know

Political Monitor | November 2016 | FINAL | Public | 26

As you may know, there is a

benefit cap that applies to people

aged 16-64, who are not working

or who work less than 16 hours a

week. It applies to benefits such as

child tax credit, housing benefit,

jobseeker's allowance and income

support, but excludes others such

as disability living allowance.

Earlier this month the maximum

amount a household could receive

was reduced from £26,000 per

year to £20,000 outside London

(and £23,000 inside London). To

what extent, if at all, do you

support or oppose reducing the

maximum amount of benefits a

household can receive from

£26,000 per year to £20,000?

The benefit cap

STRONGLY SUPPORT TEND TO SUPPORT

NEITHER SUPPORT

NOR OPPOSE

TEND TO

OPPOSE

STRONGLY

OPPOSE DON’T KNOW


27%

24%12%

12%

22%

3%


AND ON BALANCE, DO YOU THINK THAT GEORGE OSBORNE’S ECONOMIC POLICIES WHEN HE WAS

CHANCELLOR BETWEEN 2010 AND 2016 WERE GOOD OR BAD FOR THE COUNTRY?


George Osborne’s legacy

Base : 1,013 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th November 2016

40

49

11

GOOD BAD DON’T KNOW


Brexit

Political Monitor | November 2016 | FINAL | Public | 29

As you may know, formal

negotiations over Britain’s exit

from the European Union cannot

begin until Britain gives official

notice that it intends to leave,

under Article 50 of the treaty.

Recently, the High Court has said

that the government may not

trigger Article 50 without a vote

in favour from parliament. Some

MPs and peers also want the vote

to be about the terms of Britain’s

future relationship with the EU,

while others think the

Government should be left to

negotiate the terms as it sees best.

If there is a vote in parliament,

which of the following options is

closest to your view:

Brexit and Parliament

PARLIAMENT SHOULD JUST VOTE

ON WHETHER TO TRIGGER

ARTICLE 50, WHILE LETTING THE

GOVERNMENT NEGOTIATE THE

TERMS OF BRITAIN’S FUTURE

RELATIONSHIP WITH THE EU

PARLIAMENT SHOULD ALSO

TELL THE GOVERNMENT WHAT

TERMS OF BRITAIN’S FUTURE

RELATIONSHIP WITH THE EU

TO NEGOTIATE

THERE SHOULD BE NO

VOTE IN PARLIAMENT AT

ALL (UNPROMPTED) DON’T KNOW


44

37

12

6


AS YOU MAY KNOW, FORMAL NEGOTIATIONS OVER BRITAIN’S EXIT FROM THE EUROPEAN UNION CANNOT BEGIN UNTIL BRITAIN GIVES OFFICIAL

NOTICE THAT IT INTENDS TO LEAVE, UNDER ARTICLE 50 OF THE TREATY. RECENTLY, THE HIGH COURT HAS SAID THAT THE GOVERNMENT MAY NOT

TRIGGER ARTICLE 50 WITHOUT A VOTE IN FAVOUR FROM PARLIAMENT. SOME MPS AND PEERS ALSO WANT THE VOTE TO BE ABOUT THE TERMS OF

BRITAIN’S FUTURE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE EU, WHILE OTHERS THINK THE GOVERNMENT SHOULD BE LEFT TO NEGOTIATE THE TERMS AS IT SEES

BEST. IF THERE IS A VOTE IN PARLIAMENT, WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING OPTIONS IS CLOSEST TO YOUR VIEW?


PARLIAMENT SHOULD JUST VOTE ON WHETHER TO TRIGGER

ARTICLE 50, WHILE LETTING THE GOVERNMENT NEGOTIATE THE

TERMS OF BRITAIN’S FUTURE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE EU

PARLIAMENT SHOULD ALSO TELL THE GOVERNMENT WHAT

TERMS OF BRITAIN’S FUTURE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE EU TO

NEGOTIATE

32%

46%

52%

61%

27%

36%

51%

53%

36%

25%

18%

60%

51%

22%

18-34

35-54

55+

Conservative

Labour

Graduate

No quals


Attitudes to Parliament’s vote on Brexit



GOVERNMENT HAS DONE A GOOD JOB OR A BAD JOB AT HANDLING BRITAIN’S EXIT FROM THE

EUROPEAN UNION


Handling Brexit


37

48

15

GOOD JOB BAD JOB DON’T KNOW


SINCE THE GOVERNMENT UNDER THERESA MAY WAS FORMED IN JULY, DO YOU THINK THE GOVERNMENT HAS

DONE A GOOD JOB OR A BAD JOB AT HANDLING BRITAIN’S EXIT FROM THE EUROPEAN UNION?


GOOD JOB BAD JOB

37%

33%

33%

44%

53%

24%

29%

41%

48%

60%

48%

39%

27%

65%

59%

41%

All

18-34

35-54

55+

Conservative

Labour

Graduate

No quals


How well is the Government handling Brexit?

Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)

© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information

and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

33

November 2016POLITICAL MONITOR

ipsos mori political monitor - november 2016

News & Politics