ipsos mori political monitor: april 2016

Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)

© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information

and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

1

Ipsos MORI APRIL 2016 POLITICAL MONITOR

3 Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public

HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Base: 1,026 British adults 18+, 16th – 18th April 2016; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote

in General Elections = 781. Headline voting intention is based on a method that would have given most accurate results in the 2015 GE; this

is an interim measure whilst our internal review is carried out.

Voting Intention

38%

37%

9%

4%

6% 6%

ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTION HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION

CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +1 CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +3

CONSERVATIVE

LABOUR

UKIP

GREEN

LIB DEM

OTHER

38%

35%

11%

3% 6%

7%


SATISFACTION WITH THE

GOVERNMENT AND

PARTY LEADERS


21%

29%

50%

32%

38%

29%

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOB

AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS / LEADER OF

UKIP?


Base: 1,026 British adults 18+, 16th – 18th April 2016 When asked about Nigel Farage and Tim Farron the sample was split sampled with 509 and 517

British adults 18+ asked about each respectively. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied

Satisfaction with leaders and the Government

33%

59%

8%

+3% swing from March 2016


-2% swing from March 2016


+1.5% swing from February 2016

-19 Net -5 Net -6 Net -8 Net -26 Net

SATISFIED 37% SATISFIED 38% SATISFIED 32% SATISFIED 21% SATISFIED 33%

DISSATISFIED 56% DISSATISFIED 43% DISSATISFIED 38% DISSATISFIED 29% DISSATISFIED 59%

37%

56%

8%

38%

43%

19%

David Cameron Jeremy Corbyn Nigel Farage Tim Farron The Government


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS

JOB AS … ?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

Satisfaction with Party leaders Feb’09 – Apr’16

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Feb

-09

Ap

r-09

Jun

-09

Au

g-0

9

Oct

-09

Dec-

09

Feb

-10

Ap

r-10

Jun

-10

Au

g-1

0

Oct

-10

Dec-

10

Feb

-11

Ap

r-11

Jun

-11

Au

g-1

1

Oct

-11

Dec-

11

Feb

-12

Ap

r-12

Jun

-12

Au

g-1

2

Oct

-12

Dec-

12

Feb

-13

Ap

r-13

Jun

-13

Au

g-1

3

Oct

-13

Dec-

13

Feb

-14

Ap

r-14

Jun

-14

Au

g-1

4

Oct

-14

Dec-

14

Feb

-15

Ap

r-15

Jun

-15

Au

g-1

5

Oct

-15

Dec-

15

Feb

-16

Ap

r-16

CAMERON FARAGE CORBYN FARRON

37%

32%

38%

21%


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers

CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER

Net

sati

sfact

ion

NUMBER OF MONTHS FROM BECOMING PRIME MINISTER

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone


ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF

THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY / AS PRIME MINISTER?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,026 British adults 18+, 16th – 18th April 2016

David Cameron (satisfaction)

37%

56%

8%

April 2016 May 2006 –April 2016

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

May-0

6Ju

l-06

Sep

-06

No

v-0

6A

pr-

07

Jun

-07

Au

g-0

7O

ct-0

7Ja

n-0

8M

ar-

08

May-0

8Ju

l-08

Sep

-08

No

v-0

8Ja

n-0

9M

ar-

09

May-0

9Ju

l-09

Sep

-09

No

v-0

9Ja

n-1

0M

ar-

10

May-1

0Ju

l-10

Oct

-10

Dec-

10

Feb

-11

Ap

r-11

Jun

-11

Au

g-1

1O

ct-1

1D

ec-

11

Feb

-12

Ap

r-12

Jun

-12

Au

g-1

2O

ct-1

2D

ec-

12

Feb

-13

Ap

r-13

Jun

-13

Au

g-1

3O

ct-1

3D

ec-

13

Feb

-14

Ap

r-14

Jun

-14

Au

g-1

4O

ct-1

4D

ec-

14

Feb

-15

Ap

r-15

Jun

-15

Sep

-15

No

v-1

5Ja

n-1

6M

ar-

16


SATISFIED 37%

DISSATISFIED 56%

DON’T KNOW 8%

Net = -19

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

Ap

rl-1

6


71%

24%

5%

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF

THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/AS PRIME MINISTER?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 317 Conservative supporters 18+, 16th – 18th April 2016

David Cameron (satisfaction among Tory supporters)

April 2016 May 2006 –April 2016


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

May 0

6Ju

l 06

Oct

06

Jan

07

May 0

7Ju

l 07

Sep

07

Dec

07

Feb

08

Ap

r 08

Jun

08

Au

g 0

8O

ct-0

8D

ec-

08

Feb

-09

Ap

r-09

Jun

-09

Au

g-0

9O

ct-0

9D

ec-

09

Feb

-10

Ap

r-10

Jun

-10

Sep

-10

Jan

-11

Mar-

11

May-1

1Ju

l-11

Sep

-11

No

v-1

1Ja

n-1

2M

ar-

12

May-1

2Ju

l-12

Sep

-12

No

v-1

2Ja

n-1

3M

ar-

13

May-1

3Ju

l-13

Sep

-13

No

v-1

3Ja

n-1

4M

ar-

14

May-1

4Ju

l-14

Sep

-14

No

v-1

4Ja

n-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-15

Jul-

15

Oct

-15

Dec-

15

Feb

-16

Ap

r-16

SATISFIED 71%

DISSATISFIED 24%

DON’T KNOW 5%

Net = +47

Satisfied

Dissatisfied


38%

43%

19%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

rl-1

6

SATISFIED 38%

DISSATISFIED 43%

DON’T KNOW 19%

Net = -5

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF

THE LABOUR PARTY?


Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)

April 2016 September 2015 – April 2016


Satisfied

Dissatisfied


66%

24%

10%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

rl-1

6

SATISFIED 66%

DISSATISFIED 24%

DON’T KNOW 10%

Net = +42

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF

THE LABOUR PARTY?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 336 Labour supporters 18+, 16th – 18th April 2016

Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction amongst Labour supporters)


Satisfied

Dissatisfied


21%

29%

50%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

rl-1

6

SATISFIED 21%

DISSATISFIED 29%

DON’T KNOW 50%

Net = -8

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE

LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 517 British adults 18+, 16th – 18th April 2016

Tim Farron (satisfaction)


Satisfied

Dissatisfied


32%

38%

29%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Mar-

13

Ap

r-13

May-1

3Ju

n-1

3Ju

l-13

Au

g-1

3Sep

-13

Oct

-13

No

v-1

3D

ec-

13

Jan

-14

Feb

-14

Mar-

14

Ap

r-14

May-1

4Ju

n-1

4Ju

l-14

Au

g-1

4Sep

-14

Oct

-14

No

v-1

4D

ec-

14

Jan

-15

Feb

-15

Mar-

15

Ap

r-152

Ap

r-15

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5D

ec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

rl-1

6

SATISFIED 32%

DISSATISFIED 38%

DON’T KNOW 29%

Net = -6

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NIGEL FARAGE IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE

UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY?


Nigel Farage (satisfaction)

April 2016 March 2013 – April 2016

Satisfied

Dissatisfied


ECONOMIC

OPTIMISM


25%

31%

33%

10%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Jan

-04

May-0

4Sep

-04

Jan

-05

May-0

5Sep

-05

Feb

-06

Jun

-06

No

v-0

6M

ay-0

7Sep

-07

Feb

-08

Jun

-08

Oct

-08

Feb

-09

Jun

-09

Oct

-09

Feb

-10

Jun

-10

No

v-1

0M

ar-

11

Jul-

117

No

v-1

1M

ar-

12

Jul-

12

No

v-1

2M

ar-

13

Jul-

13

No

v-1

3M

ar-

14

Jul-

14

No

v-1

4M

ar-

15

Jul-

15

Dec-

15

Ap

rl-1

6

IMPROVE 25%

STAY THE SAME 31%

GET WORSE 33%

DON’T KNOW 10%

EOI = -8

DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE

SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?


Economic Optimism Index

April 2016


DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE

SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?


The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Ap

r 1998

Au

g 1

998

Dec

1998

Ap

r 1999

Au

g 1

999

Dec

1999

Ap

r 2000

Au

g 2

000

Dec

2000

Ap

r 2001

Au

g 2

001

Dec

2001

Ap

r 2002

Au

g 2

002

Dec

2002

Ap

r 2003

Au

g 2

003

Dec

2003

Ap

r 2004

Au

g 2

004

Dec

2004

Ap

r 2005

Au

g 2

005

Dec

2005

Ap

r 2006

Au

g 2

006

Dec

2006

Ap

r 2007

Au

g 2

007

Dec

2007

Ap

r 2008

Au

g 2

008

Dec

2008

Ap

r 2009

Au

g 2

009

Dec

2009

Ap

r 2010

Au

g 2

010

Dec

2010

Ap

r 2011

Au

g 2

011

Dec

2011

Ap

r 2012

Au

g 2

012

Dec

2012

Ap

r 2013

Au

g 2

013

Dec

2013

Ap

r 2014

Au

g 2

014

Dec

2014

Ap

r 2015

Au

g 2

015

Dec

2015

Ap

r 2016

-8


EUROPE


49%

39%

8% 3%

*%

43%

35%

19%

3% *%

QA) ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTION QA/B COMBINED) ALL GIVING A VOTING

INTENTION

QA) AS YOU MAY KNOW THE UNITED KINGDOM WILL HAVE A REFERENDUM ON ITS MEMBERSHIP OF

THE EUROPEAN UNION ON THE 23RD OF JUNE THIS YEAR. HOW WILL YOU VOTE ON THE QUESTION –

SHOULD THE UNITED KINGDOM REMAIN A MEMBER OF THE EUROPEAN UNION OR LEAVE THE

EUROPEAN UNION?


European Referendum voting intention

REMAIN

LEAVE

UNDECIDED

WOULD NOT VOTE

REFUSED

QB) TO ALL UNDECIDED/REFUSED) WHICH WAY WOULD YOU BE MOST INCLINED TO VOTE?


HAVE YOU DEFINITELY DECIDED TO VOTE FOR BRITAIN TO REMAIN / LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION OR IS

THERE A CHANCE YOU MAY CHANGE YOUR MIND BEFORE YOU VOTE?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: All expressing an opinion on how they will vote 927 British adults 18+, 16th – 18th April 2016

Have the EU referendum voters decided yet?

57% 58% 63% 64%

69%

40% 39% 35% 33%

28%

3% 3% 2% 3% 3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Oct

2015

No

v

2015

Dec

2015

Jan

2016

Feb

2016

Mar

2016

Ap

r

2016

DEFINITELY DECIDED MAY CHANGE MIND DON’T KNOW


49%

46%

5%

AS YOU MAY KNOW, THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES, BARACK OBAMA, WILL BE VISITING BRITAIN IN THE

COMING DAYS. HE IS EXPECTED TO SAY IN REGARDS TO THE REFERENDUM ON BRITISH MEMBERSHIP OF THE EU THAT

IT IS A MATTER FOR THE BRITISH PEOPLE TO DECIDE, BUT THAT THE UNITED STATES SUPPORTS A STRONG UK IN THE

EUROPEAN UNION.

DO YOU THINK HE SHOULD OR SHOULD NOT EXPRESS A VIEW ON WHETHER THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD STAY IN

THE EU?


Image: Pete Souza, Obama-Biden Transition Project (2008) Base: 1,026 British adults 18+, 16th – 18th April 2016

Britons’ views on President Obama’s intervention

SHOULD SHOULD NOT DON’T KNOW

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c6/Official_portrait_of_Barack_Obama-2.jpg


AND HOW IMPORTANT, IF AT ALL, WILL PRESIDENT OBAMA’S VIEW BE ON HOW YOU DECIDE TO VOTE

ON THE REFERENDUM ON BRITAIN’S MEMBERSHIP OF THE EU?


Importance of Obama’s statement

4% 11%

21%

62%

2%

VERY IMPORTANT FAIRLY IMPORTANT

NOT VERY

IMPORTANT

NOT AT ALL

IMPORTANT DON’T KNOW


LOOKING AHEAD TO THE REFERENDUM ON BRITAIN’S MEMBERSHIP OF THE EUROPEAN UNION ON JUNE 23RD, WHICH,

IF ANY, ISSUES DO YOU THINK WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT TO YOU IN HELPING YOU DECIDE WHICH WAY TO VOTE?

AND WHICH OF THESE ISSUES, IF ANY, THAT YOU MENTIONED IS THE MOST IMPORTANT TO YOU IN HELPING YOU

DECIDE WHICH WAY TO VOTE?


Issues important to EU voting

12

10

1

1

0

1

1

1

1

2

1

2

2

4

3

4

7

14

18

8

10 5

5

5

6

6

7

7

8

8

8

9

11

11

12 14

27 32

Don’t know

Nothing/none

Impact on public services/housing

Britain’s status in the world

Ability of British citizens to live/work in other EU countries

Ability to travel in the EU

Impact on me personally

Britain’s relationship with other countries

Number of refugees coming to Britain to claim asylum

Impact on the rights of British workers

Regulations by EU on British businesses

Impact on British national security

Cost of EU membership fees

Britain’s ability to trade with countries in EU

Impact on British jobs

Cost of EU immigration on Britain’s welfare system

Britain’s ability to make its own laws

Number of immigrants coming into Britain

Impact on Britain’s economy

All issues

Most important issue

Unprompted – top responses only


YOU SAID THAT YOU WOULD VOTE FOR THE UK TO REMAIN IN/LEAVE THE EU. NOW THINKING ABOUT

THE ISSUE YOU SAID WAS MOST IMPORTANT TO YOU, IF YOU WERE PERSUADED THAT ON THAT ISSUE IT

WOULD BE BEST FOR BRITAIN TO LEAVE/STAY IN THE EU, HOW LIKELY, IF AT ALL, WOULD YOU BE TO

CHANGE YOUR MIND AND VOTE TO LEAVE/REMAIN IN THE EU?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: British adults 18+ expressing an EU voting intention and an important reason (457 remain supporters, 327 leave), 16th – 18th April 2016

Could people be persuaded to change their vote?

7%

27%

25%

36%

4%

WOULD DEFINITELY

CHANGE MY VOTE

WOULD PROBABLY

CHANGE MY VOTE

WOULD PROBABLY NOT

CHANGE MY VOTE

WOULD DEFINITELY NOT

CHANGE MY VOTE DON’T KNOW

5%

21%

20%

50%

4%

Remain voters Leave voters


LEADER IMAGE


I AM GOING TO READ OUT SOME THINGS BOTH FAVOURABLE AND UNFAVOURABLE THAT HAVE BEEN

SAID ABOUT VARIOUS POLITICIANS. WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO DAVID

CAMERON?


Leader image – David Cameron

23%

37%

41%

44%

46%

48%

52%

53%

65%

70%

74%

More honest than most politicians

Has sound judgement

Has got a lot of personality

More style than substance

Understands the problems facing Britain

Good in a crisis

Has a clear vision for Britain

Capable leader

Patriotic

Out of touch with ordinary people

Looks after some sections of society more than others



SAID ABOUT VARIOUS POLITICIANS. WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO JEREMY

CORBYN?


Leader image – Jeremy Corbyn

17%

19%

27%

28%

31%

33%

39%

42%

47%

48%

55%


Good in a crisis

Capable leader


Has sound judgement



Patriotic






SAID ABOUT VARIOUS POLITICIANS. WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO NIGEL FARAGE?


Leader image – Nigel Farage

15%

21%

24%

36%

36%

41%

44%

45%

54%

57%

61%

Good in a crisis

Has sound judgement

Capable leader








Patriotic



SAID ABOUT VARIOUS POLITICIANS. WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO TIM FARRON?


Leader image – Tim Farron

9%

13%

14%

16%

17%

19%

19%

20%

22%

25%

26%

Good in a crisis



Capable leader

Has sound judgement






Patriotic




CAMERON / JEREMY CORBYN / NIGEL FARAGE / TIM FARRON?


Base: 1,026 British adults 18+, 16th – 18th April 2016 for Cameron and Corbyn; 509 British adults 18+ for Farage; 517 British adults 18+ for

Farron

Leader image – positive traits

16%

9%

17%

22%

13%

26%

19%

19%

24%

15%

21%

36%

57%

61%

36%

45%

27%

19%

31%

48%

28%

42%

47%

39%

53%

48%

37%

46%

41%

65%

23%

52%

Capable leader

Good in a crisis

Has sound judgement



Patriotic



CAMERON

CORBYN

FARAGE

FARRON




CAMERON / JEREMY CORBYN / NIGEL FARAGE / TIM FARRON?


Base: 1,026 British adults 18+, 16th – 18th April 2016 for Cameron and Corbyn; 509 British adults 18+ for Farage; 517 British adults 18+ for

Farron

Leader image – negative traits

25%

20%

14%

54%

41%

44%

55%

33%

17%

74%

70%

44%




CAMERON

CORBYN

FARAGE

FARRON

Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)

© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information

and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

31

April 2016 POLITICAL MONITOR

ipsos mori political monitor: april 2016

News & Politics