ipsos mori political monitor february 2017

Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)

© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information

and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

1

Ipsos MORIFebruary 2017 POLITICAL MONITOR

3Political Monitor | February 2017 | Final | Public

40%

29%

9%

4%

13%

5%

HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Base: 1,044 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th February 2017 ; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends

vote in General Elections = 748. Headline voting intention is based on a method that would have given most accurate results in the 2015

GE.

Voting Intention

37%

31%

8%

4%

13%

7%

ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTIONHEADLINE VOTING INTENTION

CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +6

CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +11

CONSERVATIVE

LABOUR

UKIP

GREEN

LIB DEM

OTHER


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Au

g 0

3

Feb

04

Au

g 0

4

Feb

05

Au

g 0

5

Feb

06

Au

g 0

6

Feb

07

Au

g 0

7

Feb

08

Au

g 0

8

Feb

09

Au

g 0

9

Feb

10

Au

g 1

0

Feb

11

Au

g 1

1

Feb

12

Au

g 1

2

Feb

13

Au

g 1

3

Feb

14

Au

g 1

4

Feb

15

Au

g 1

5

Feb

16

Au

g 1

6

Feb

17

2015 General Election

Miliband

elected

(Sept 10)

Corbyn

elected

(Sept 15)

May

as PM

(July 16)

HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote

and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections

Headline voting intention: August ‘03 – February ‘17

2005 General Election 2010 General Election

Cameron

elected

(Dec 05)

Brown

as PM

(June 07)

CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM


SATISFACTION WITH THE

GOVERNMENT AND

PARTY LEADERS


Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn The Government

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/HER JOB

AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF UKIP /LEADER OF THE LIBERAL

DEMOCRATS ?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,044 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th February 2017. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied

Satisfaction with leaders and the Government

36%

54%

11%

53%36%

10%

24%

62%

15%

+5.5%swing from January

2017

-1.5%swing from January

2017

+1%swing from January

2017

+17 Net -38 Net -18 NetSATISFIED 53% SATISFIED 24% SATISFIED 36%

DISSATISFIED 36% DISSATISFIED 62% DISSATISFIED 54%


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS … ?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month

Satisfaction with Party leaders Sept 2015 – Feb 2017

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Jan

16

Feb

16

Mar

16

Ap

r 16

May 1

6

Ju

n 1

6

Ju

l 16

Au

g 1

6

Sep

16

Oct

16

No

v 1

6

Dec

16

Jan

17

Feb

17

MAY CORBYN

53%

24%


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME

MINISTER?


Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers

MAY CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER

Net

sati

sfact

ion

NUMBER OF MONTHS FROM BECOMING PRIME MINISTER

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

May


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE …

PARTY?


Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2017)

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader

Net

sati

sfact

ion

HOWARD BLAIR (94-97) DUNCAN SMITH (01-03) MILIBAND (10-15) CAMERON (05-10) HAGUE (97-01) CORBYN (15-present)

Corbyn


ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME

MINISTER?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,044 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th February 2017

Theresa May (satisfaction)

53%36%

10%

February 2017 August 2016 – February 2017

SATISFIED 53%

DISSATISFIED 36%

DON’T KNOW 10%

Net = +17

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec-

16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Dissatisfied

Satisfied


ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME

MINISTER?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 343 Conservative supporters 18+ , 10th – 14th February 2017

Theresa May (satisfaction amongst Conservative supporters

89%

8%4%

February 2017

SATISFIED 89%

DISSATISFIED 8%

DON’T KNOW 4%

Net = +81

August 2016 – February 2017

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec-

16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Dissatisfied

Satisfied


24%

62%

15%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

rl-1

6

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec-

16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

SATISFIED 24%

DISSATISFIED 62%

DON’T KNOW 15%

Net = -38

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF

THE LABOUR PARTY?


Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)

February 2017 September 2015 – February 2017

Satisfied

Dissatisfied


41%

50%

9%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

rl-1

6

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec-

16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

SATISFIED 41%

DISSATISFIED 50%

DON’T KNOW 9%

Net = -9

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF

THE LABOUR PARTY?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 264 Labour supporters 18+, 10th – 14th February 2017

Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction amongst Labour supporters)

February 2017 September 2015 – February 2017

Satisfied

Dissatisfied


ECONOMIC

OPTIMISM


28%

24%

44%

4%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Jul-

04

Jan

-05

Jul-

05

Feb

-06

Sep

-06

May-0

7

Dec-

07

Jun

-08

Dec-

08

Jun

-09

Dec-

09

Jun

-10

Jan

-11

Jul-

117

Jan

-12

Jul-

12

Jan

-13

Jul-

13

Jan

-14

Jul-

14

Jan

-15

Jul-

15

Feb

-16

Au

g-1

6

Feb

-17

IMPROVE 28%

STAY THE SAME 24%

GET WORSE 44%

DON’T KNOW 4%

EOI = -16

DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE

SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?


Economic Optimism Index

February 2017


DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE

SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?


The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Jun

1997

Oct

1997

Feb

1998

Jun

1998

Oct

1998

Feb

1999

Jun

1999

Oct

1999

Feb

2000

Jun

2000

Oct

2000

Feb

2001

Jun

2001

Oct

2001

Feb

2002

Jun

2002

Oct

2002

Feb

2003

Jun

2003

Oct

2003

Feb

2004

Jun

2004

Oct

2004

Feb

2005

Jun

2005

Oct

2005

Feb

2006

Jun

2006

Oct

2006

Feb

2007

Jun

2007

Oct

2007

Feb

2008

Jun

2008

Oct

2008

Feb

2009

Jun

2009

Oct

2009

Feb

2010

Jun

2010

Oct

2010

Feb

2011

Jun

2011

Oct

2011

Feb

2012

Jun

2012

Oct

2012

Feb

2013

Jun

2013

Oct

2013

Feb

2014

Jun

2014

Oct

2014

Feb

2015

Jun

2015

Oct

2015

Feb

2016

Jun

2016

Oct

2016

Feb

2017

-16


Foreign Relations


47%

29%

19%

5%

EUROPE 47%

AMERICA 29%

COMMONWEALTH 19%

DON’T KNOW 5%

WHICH OF THESE - EUROPE, THE COMMONWEALTH OR AMERICA - IS THE MOST IMPORTANT TO

BRITAIN?


Britain’s foreign relations

February 2017

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

19691984

19861989

19911993

19962002

20032014

2017


OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS, WITH WHICH OF THESE FOREIGN LEADERS, IF ANY, DO YOU

THINK THERESA MAY SHOULD TRY TO BUILD THE STRONGEST RELATIONSHIP?


Theresa May’s relations with other leaders

26

24

17

12

5

3

3

1

4

6

Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor

Donald Trump, the US President

Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the European

Commission

Xi Jinping, the Chinese President

Vladimir Putin, the Russian President

Francois Hollande, the French President

None of them

Other

All of them

Don’t know


AS YOU MAY KNOW, DONALD TRUMP IS EXPECTED TO VISIT BRITAIN LATER THIS YEAR IN AN OFFICIAL

STATE VISIT HOSTED BY THE QUEEN. DO YOU THINK HE SHOULD OR SHOULD NOT HAVE BEEN INVITED

TO A STATE VISIT TO BRITAIN THIS YEAR?


President Trump’s state visit

53 42

SHOULD SHOULD NOT


AND IF DONALD TRUMP DOES VISIT BRITAIN LATER THIS YEAR, DO YOU THINK HE SHOULD OR SHOULD

NOT….?


President Trump’s state visit

44

43

45

47

52

43

SHOULD SHOULD NOT

Visit a London

mosque or Muslim community group

Be invited to give a

speech to peers and

MPs in the Houses of Parliament

Be invited to play a

round of golf on

the Queen’s golfcourse at Balmoral

Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)

© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information

and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

22

February 2017POLITICAL MONITOR

ipsos mori political monitor february 2017

News & Politics