ipsos mori political monitor - july 2015

2015 JULY POLITICAL MONITOR 24 JULY 2015

VOTING INTENTIONS

Voting Intention

HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

36%

33%

8%

8%

9% 6%

All giving a voting intention Headline voting intention

Conservative lead = +3 Conservative lead = +6

CONSERVATIVE

LABOUR

UKIP

GREEN

LIB DEM

OTHER

37%

31%

9%

8%

10% 5%

Base Base: 1,026 British adults 18+, 18th –20th July 2015, all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 748 Headline voting intention is based on a method that would have given most accurate results in the 2015 GE; this is an interim measure whilst our internal review is carried out.

3

FUTURE LEADERS?

Future Prime Ministers? – Labour contenders

5

6%

3%

5%

7%

11%

13%

17%

20%

19%

23%

19%

20%

15%

14%

17%

14%

21%

16%

17%

13%

28%

30%

24%

26%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Jeremy Corbyn

Liz Kendall

Yvette Cooper

Andy Burnham

Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither/ nor

Tend to dis-agree Strongly disagree Don’t know

27% 27%

22%

16%

17%

34%

30%

36%

Base: 1,026 British adults 18+, 18th –20th July 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT… HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A GOOD PRIME MINISTER

Future Prime Ministers? (among Labour Supporters)

6

10%

6%

11%

14%

16%

16%

26%

29%

19%

22%

21%

21%

19%

15%

13%

11%

15%

19%

12%

8%

22%

22%

17%

17%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Jeremy Corbyn

Liz Kendall

Yvette Cooper

Andy Burnham



43% 19%

37%

22%

26%

25%

34%

34%

Base: 299 Labour supporters 18+, 18th –20th July 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor


SATISFACTION WITH THE GOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS

DAVID CAMERON HARRIET HARMAN NIGEL FARAGE GOVERNMENT

-7.0% swing from June

+2.5% swing from June

-4.5% swing from June

-7 Net -1 Net -13 Net -12 Net SATISFIED 42% SATISFIED 33% SATISFIED 31% SATISFIED 39%

DISSATISFIED 49% DISSATISFIED 34% DISSATISFIED 44% DISSATISFIED 51%

Satisfaction with leaders and the Government

Base: 1,026 British adults 18+, 18th –20th July 2015. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied”

8 HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOB

AS PRIME MINISTER /ACTING LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF UKIP?


0

-100

+100

Satisfaction with Party leaders Feb ‘08 – July ‘15

Base: c.1,026 British adults each month

9 HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS

RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOB AS … ?


42%

31%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Ma

r 0

8

Jul 08

Nov 0

8

Ma

r 0

9

Jul 09

Nov 0

9

Ma

r 1

0

Jul 10

Nov 1

0

Ma

r 1

1

Jul 11

Nov 1

1

Ma

r 1

2

Jul 12

Nov 1

2

Ma

r 1

3

Jul 13

Nov 1

3

Ma

r 1

4

Jul 14

Nov 1

4

Ma

r 1

5

Jul 15

CAMERON FARAGE

Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers


10 HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY… IS DOING HIS / HER JOB

AS PRIME MINISTER?


CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER

Ne

t sa

tisfa

ctio

n

Number of months from becoming Prime Minister

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

David Cameron (satisfaction)

Base: 1,026 British adults 18+, 18th –20th July 2015

11 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOB

AS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/ AS PRIME MINISTER?


42%

49%

8%

July 2015 May 2006 – July 2015

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Ma

y-0

6

Oct-

06

Jun

-07

Dec-0

7

Ma

y-0

8

Oct-

08

Ma

r-0

9

Au

g-0

9

Jan

-10

Jun

-10

Dec-1

0

Ma

y-1

1

Oct-

11

Ma

r-1

2

Au

g-1

2

Jan

-13

Jun

-13

Nov-1

3

Ap

r-14

Se

p-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Jul-

15


SATISFIED 42%

DISSATISFIED 49%

DON’T KNOW 8%

Net = -7

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

David Cameron (satisfaction among Tory supporters)

Base: 312 Conservative supporters 18+, 18th -20th July 2015

12 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOB

AS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/ AS PRIME MINISTER?


83%

12%

5%

July 2015 May 2006 – July 2015

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Ma

y 0

6

Jan

07

Se

p 0

7

Ap

r 08

Oct-

08

Ap

r-09

Oct-

09

Ap

r-10

Jan

-11

Jul-

11

Jan

-12

Jul-

12

Jan

-13

Jul-

13

Jan

-14

Jul-

14

Jan

-15

Jul-

15


SATISFIED 83%

DISSATISFIED 12%

DON’T KNOW 5%

Net = +71

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

Harriet Harman (satisfaction)

13 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY HARRIET HARMAN IS DOING HER JOB

AS ACTING LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?


33%

34%

34%

July 2015

SATISFIED 33%

DISSATISFIED 34%

DON’T KNOW 34%

Net = -1

Base: 1,026 British adults; 299 Labour supporters 18+, 18th –20th July 2015

43%

30%

27%

SATISFIED 43%

DISSATISFIED 30%

DON’T KNOW 27%

Net = +13

Labour supporters only

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Ma

r-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3

Nov-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Jul-

14

Se

p-1

4

Nov-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-1

5

Ap

r-15

Jul-

15

Nigel Farage (satisfaction)


14 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NIGEL FARAGE IS DOING HIS JOB

AS LEADER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY?


31%

44%

25%

July 2015 March 2013 – July 2015

SATISFIED 31%

DISSATISFIED 44%

DON’T KNOW 25%

Net = -13

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Ma

r-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3

Nov-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Jul-

14

Se

p-1

4

Nov-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-1

5

Ap

r-15

Jul-

15

Nigel Farage (satisfaction)

Base: 67 UKIP supporters 18+, 18th–20th July 2015

15 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NIGEL FARAGE IS DOING HIS JOB

AS LEADER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY?


83%

13% 3%

July 2015 March 2013 – July 2015

SATISFIED 83%

DISSATISFIED 13%

DON’T KNOW 3%

Net = +70

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

ECONOMIC OPTIMISM

Economic Optimism Index


17 DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL

IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?


July 2015

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Jan

-04

Ma

y-0

4S

ep-0

4Jan

-05

Ma

y-0

5S

ep-0

5F

eb-0

6Jun

-06

Nov-0

6M

ay-0

7S

ep-0

7F

eb-0

8Jun

-08

Oct-

08

Fe

b-0

9Jun

-09

Oct-

09

Fe

b-1

0Jun

-10

Nov-1

0M

ar-

11

Jul-

117

Nov-1

1M

ar-

12

Jul-

12

Nov-1

2M

ar-

13

Jul-

13

Nov-1

3M

ar-

14

Jul-

14

Nov-1

4M

ar-

15

Jul-

15

IMPROVE 42%

STAY THE SAME 26%

GET WORSE 28%

DON’T KNOW 4%

EOI = +14

The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index


18 DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL

IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?


-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Jun

19

97

Jan

19

98

Au

g 1

998

Ma

r 1

99

9

Oct

19

99

Ma

y 2

00

0

De

c 2

000

Jul 20

01

Fe

b 2

002

Se

p 2

002

Ap

r 20

03

No

v 2

003

Jun

20

04

Jan

20

05

Au

g 2

005

Ma

r 2

00

6

Oct

20

06

Ma

y 2

00

7

De

c 2

007

Jul 20

08

Fe

b 2

009

Se

p 2

009

Ap

r 20

10

No

v 2

010

Jun

20

11

Jan

20

12

Au

g 2

012

Ma

r 2

01

3

Oct

20

13

Ma

y 2

01

4

De

c 2

014

Jul 20

15

+14

FUTURE LEADERS?

Future Prime Ministers? – Conservative contenders

20

3%

7%

7%

13%

10%

21%

16%

19%

18%

18%

15%

11%

18%

17%

20%

21%

35%

25%

33%

31%

16%

11%

8%

6%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Michael Gove

Theresa May

George Osborne

Boris Johnson



23% 53%

32%

28%

13%

52%

42%

53%



Future Prime Ministers? (among Conservative

supporters)

21

4%

14%

17%

20%

12%

31%

28%

27%

18%

16%

15%

8%

26%

17%

23%

26%

22%

13%

11%

16%

16%

8%

7%

3%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Michael Gove

Theresa May

George Osborne

Boris Johnson



45% 34%

47%

45%

16%

42%

30%

48%



Base: 312 Conservative supporters 18+, 18th -20th July 2015

SUMMER BUDGET

44%

44%

12%

Satisfaction with George Osborne

23 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY GEORGE OSBORNE IS DOING HIS JOB

AS CHANCELLOR OF THE EXCHEQUER?


July2015 June 2010 – July 2015

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Jun

-10

Ma

r-1

1

Dec-1

1

Ap

r-12

Ma

r-1

3

Ap

r-14

Ma

r-1

5

Jul-

15

BB = Before Budget

AB = After Budget

AAS = After Autumn Statement

BB

BB

BB

BB

BB

BB

AAS

AAS

AB

AB BB

BB AB

AB SATISFIED 44%

DISSATISFIED 44%

DON’T KNOW 12%

Net = 0

Dissatisfied

Satisfied


Satisfaction with chancellors – long term trend

Base: c1,000 British adults aged 18+

24 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY XXX IS DOING HIS JOB AS CHANCELLOR OF THE EXCHEQUER?


% saying ‘satisfied’

66%

44%

67%

52%

45% 45%

34%

39%

44% 42%

37% 39%

36% 37%

18%

31%

17%

24%

28%

38%

34%

52%

44%

56%

45% 42%

48%

52%

34%

41%

55% 57%

48% 46%

49% 47%

42%

32%

28%

36%

40%

36% 38%

28% 27%

47%

43% 44%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Ma

r-…

Ma

r-…

Ap

r-7

8

Jul-

80

Ma

r-…

Jun

-83

Ma

r-…

Ma

r-…

Ma

r-…

Mar-

…

Ma

r-…

Ma

r-…

Mar-

…

Ma

r-…

Ma

r-…

De

c…

De

c…

No

v…

De

c…

No

v…

De

c…

Jul-

97

Fe

b-…

Ma

r-…

Ma

r-…

Fe

b-…

Ma

r-…

Jul-

00

Se

p…

No

v…

Ma

r-…

Ap

r-0

2

Apr-

03

Ma

r-…

No

v…

Fe

b-…

De

c…

Ap

r-0

7

Ma

r-…

Ma

r-…

Jun

-10

Ma

r-…

De

c…

Ap

r-1

2

Ma

r-…

Ap

r-1

4

Ma

r-…

Jul-

15

Healey Major Howe Lawson Lamont Clarke Brown Darling Osborne

45%

38%

17%

Summer Budget

25 AS YOU MAY KNOW, THE GOVERNMENT RECENTLY ANNOUNCED ITS SUMMER 2015 BUDGET LAST WEEK. FROM WHAT YOU KNOW OR HAVE HEARD, DO YOU THINK THE BUDGET PROPOSALS ARE A GOOD THING OR A BAD THING….?


Good thing

Bad thing

46%

44%

10%

Don’t know

...for the country

Good thing

Bad thing

...for you personally

Is the 2015 budget seen as good for the country as

previous ones?

26


AS YOU MAY KNOW, THE GOVERNMENT RECENTLY ANNOUNCED ITS SUMMER 2015 BUDGET LAST WEEK. FROM WHAT YOU KNOW OR HAVE HEARD, DO YOU THINK THE BUDGET PROPOSALS ARE A GOOD THING OR A BAD THING FOR THE COUNTRY?


47%

69%

39%

47% 48% 46%

35% 37%

45%

40% 42%

28%

32% 34%

23%

29%

20% 23%

27%

56% 57%

46% 48%

52%

65%

37%

45%

25%

54%

33%

48% 46%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80Healey Major Howe Lawson Lamont Clarke Brown Osborne

% Saying Good

27


34%

68%

26%

41%

36%

42%

32%

42%

49%

40% 36%

27%

36% 35%

11%

16% 15%

25%

20%

29% 33%

36%

26%

42% 45%

24%

34%

21%

26% 25%

43% 45%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80 Healey Major Howe Lawson Lamont Clarke Brown Osborne

AS YOU MAY KNOW, THE GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCED ITS SUMMER 2015 BUDGET LAST WEEK. FROM WHAT YOU KNOW OR HAVE HEARD, DO YOU THINK THE BUDGET PROPOSALS ARE A GOOD THING OR A BAD THING FOR YOU PERSONALLY?


% Saying Good

Is the 2015 budget seen as good for people personally

as previous ones?

AIRPORTS

Support for increasing airport capacity

29 A) SOME PEOPLE THINK THAT SCOTTISH MPS SHOULD NOT BE ALLOWED TO VOTE IN THE HOUSE OF COMMONS ON ISSUES THAT HAVE NO DIRECT IMPACT ON PEOPLE IN SCOTLAND

Source: Ipsos MORI

July 2015


SOME PEOPLE SAY THAT BRITAIN’S AIRPORT CAPACITY SHOULD BE INCREASED IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS BY EITHER BUILDING A NEW AIRPORT OR EXPANDING EXISTING AIRPORTS. OTHER PEOPLE THINK IT SHOULD NOT BE INCREASED IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS. DO YOU THINK BRITAIN’S AIRPORT CAPACITY SHOULD OR SHOULD NOT BE INCREASED?

60%

33%

7% Britain's airportcapacity shouldbe increased

Britain's airportcapacity shouldnot be increased

Don’t know

Airport expansion debate


Source: Ipsos MORI

July 2015

AND WHICH ONE OF THE FOLLOWING DO YOU THINK IS THE BEST WAY OF INCREASING BRITAIN’S AIRPORT CAPACITY?

7%

1%

3%

14%

22%

24%

30%

Don’t know

None of these options

Other

Another airport should be expanded

Heathrow should be expanded by building a3rd runway

Gatwick should be expanded by building a2nd runway

A new airport should be built

Base: 635 saying airport capacity should be increased 18+, 18th –20th July 2015

Considerations for new runway


Source: Ipsos MORI

July 2015

WHEN DECIDING WHERE A NEW RUNWAY SHOULD BE BUILT, WHAT, IF ANY, ARE THE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES THE GOVERNMENT SHOULD CONSIDER? WHAT ELSE?

11%

5%

5%

5%

7%

7%

8%

8%

9%

11%

12%

12%

15%

15%

30%

39%

Don’t know

I don’t think a new runway should be built

Accessibility

Meeting the needs of businesses

Transport infrastructure

Being close to a big city

Avoiding built up areas

Local residents/ community/local area

Disruption while it is being built

Impact on traffic congestion

How much pollution it causes

Costs of construction

Support from local residents

Generating jobs and growth in the economy

How much noise created for local residents

Impact on the natural environment


CONSTITUTIONAL ISSUES

33%

33%

26%

19%

11%

16%

11%

13%

14%

17%

Strongly support Tend to support Neither support not oppose Tend to oppose Strongly oppose Don’t know

a) Some people think that Scottish

MPs should not be allowed to vote

in the House of Commons on

issues that have no direct impact

on people in Scotland

b) The Government has proposed

that English MPs should be allowed

a veto in the House of Commons on

issues that only have an impact on

people in England.

English votes For English laws

33 AS YOU MAY KNOW, SCOTLAND HAS ITS OWN PARLIAMENT WHICH MAKES DECISIONS ABOUT ISSUES SUCH AS HEALTH AND EDUCATION.

THIS IS NOT THE CASE IN ENGLAND WHERE ALL ISSUES ARE DECIDED BY MPS FROM ACROSS THE UK IN THE HOUSE OF COMMONS.

Source: Ipsos MORI Base: A and B asked of half the sample. 513 British adults 18+, 18th –20th July 2015

SPLIT SAMPLE BETWEEN STATEMENTS A AND B

TO WHAT EXTENT WOULD YOU SUPPORT OR OPPOSE SUCH A CHANGE? WOULD YOU…..

2015 POLITICAL MONITOR

ipsos mori political monitor - july 2015

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