ipsos mori political monitor: november 2015

2015 POLITICAL MONITOR 20.11.2015

VOTING INTENTIONS

Voting Intention

HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

37%

35%

8%

5%

8% 6%

All giving a voting intention Headline voting intention

Conservative lead = +2 Conservative lead = +7

CONSERVATIVE

LABOUR

UKIP

GREEN

LIB DEM

OTHER

41%

34%

7%

4%

7% 7%

Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th November all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 760. Headline voting intention is based on a method that would have given most accurate results in the 2015 GE; this is an interim measure whilst our internal review is carried out.

3

SATISFACTION WITH THE GOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS

CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP LIB DEM GOVERNMENT

-3% swing from October

-1.5% swing from October

-10% swing from October



-15 Net -3 Net -12 Net -14 Net -22 Net SATISFIED 40% SATISFIED 37% SATISFIED 33% SATISFIED 18% SATISFIED 36%

DISSATISFIED 55% DISSATISFIED 40% DISSATISFIED 45% DISSATISFIED 32% DISSATISFIED 58%

Satisfaction with leaders and the Government

Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th November 2015. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied”

5


0

-50

+50

HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOB

AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS / LEADER OF UKIP?

Satisfaction with Party leaders Nov‘8 – Nov‘15

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

6 HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS

RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOB AS … ?


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

40%

33%

CAMERON CORBYN FARRON FARAGE

37%

18%

Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

7 HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY… IS DOING HIS / HER JOB

AS PRIME MINISTER?


CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER

Ne

t sa

tisfa

ctio

n

Number of months from becoming Prime Minister

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

David Cameron (satisfaction)

Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th November

8 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOB

AS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/ AS PRIME MINISTER?


40%

55%

5%

November 2015 August 2006 –November 2015

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Au

g-0

6N

ov-0

6M

ay-0

7A

ug-0

7D

ec-0

7M

ar-

08

Jun

-08

Se

p-0

8D

ec-0

8M

ar-

09

Jun

-09

Se

p-0

9D

ec-0

9M

ar-

10

Jun

-10

Oct-

10

Jan

-11

Ap

r-11

Jul-

11

Oct-

11

Jan

-12

Ap

r-12

Jul-

12

Oct-

12

Jan

-13

Ap

r-13

Jul-

13

Oct-

13

Jan

-14

Ap

r-14

Jul-

14

Oct-

14

Jan

-15

Ap

r-15

Jul-

15

Nov-1

5


SATISFIED 40%

DISSATISFIED 55%

DON’T KNOW 5%

Net = -15

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

David Cameron (satisfaction among Tory supporters)

Base: 307 Conservative supporters 18+, 14th – 17th November

9 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOB

AS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/ AS PRIME MINISTER?


80%

18%

3%

October 2015 July 2006 – November 2015

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Au

g 0

6Jan

07

Jun

07

Se

p 0

7Jan

08

Ap

r 08

Jul 08

Oct-

08

Jan

-09

Ap

r-09

Jul-

09

Oct-

09

Jan

-10

Ap

r-10

Jul-

10

Jan

-11

Ap

r-11

Jul-

11

Oct-

11

Jan

-12

Ap

r-12

Jul-

12

Oct-

12

Jan

-13

Ap

r-13

Jul-

13

Oct-

13

Jan

-14

Ap

r-14

Jul-

14

Oct-

14

Jan

-15

Ap

r 15

Jul-

15

Nov-1

5


SATISFIED 80%

DISSATISFIED 18%

DON’T KNOW 3%

Net = +62

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

37%

40%

23%

37%

39%

25%

Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)

10 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMEY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB

AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?


October 2015

SATISFIED 37%

DISSATISFIED 39%

DON’T KNOW 25%

Net = -2

Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th November and 1,021 British adults18+, 17th –19th October 2015

SATISFIED 37%

DISSATISFIED 40%

DON’T KNOW 23%

Net = -3

November 2015

65%

18%

18%

64% 16%

25%

Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)

11 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMEY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB

AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?


October 2015

SATISFIED 64%

DISSATISFIED 16%

DON’T KNOW 21%

Net = +48

Base: 310 Labour supporters 14th – 17th November and 311 Labour supporters17th –19th October 2015

SATISFIED 65%

DISSATISFIED 18%

DON’T KNOW 18%

Net = +47

November 2015

22%

27%

51%

18%

32%

50%

Tim Farron (satisfaction)

Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th November and 1,021 British adults18+, 17th –19th October 2015

12 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOB

AS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?


October 2015 November 2015

SATISFIED 22%

DISSATISFIED 27%

DON’T KNOW 51%

Net = -5

SATISFIED 18%

DISSATISFIED 32%

DON’T KNOW 50%

Net = -14

61% 14%

25%

57% 30%

13%

Tim Farron (satisfaction)

Base:80 Lib Dem supporters 18+ 14th – 17th November and 80 Lib Dem supporters 18+, 17th – 19th October 2015

N.B. small base size, indicative only.

13 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOB

AS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?


October 2015 (Lib Dem supporters only) November 2015 (Lib Dem supporters only)

SATISFIED 61%

DISSATISFIED 14%

DON’T KNOW 25%

Net = +47

SATISFIED 57%

DISSATISFIED 30%

DON’T KNOW 13%

Net = +27

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Ma

r-1

3A

pr-

13

Ma

y-1

3Jun

-13

Jul-

13

Au

g-1

3S

ep-1

3O

ct-

13

Nov-1

3D

ec-1

3Jan

-14

Fe

b-1

4M

ar-

14

Ap

r-14

Ma

y-1

4Jun

-14

Jul-

14

Au

g-1

4S

ep-1

4O

ct-

14

Nov-1

4D

ec-1

4Jan

-15

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-15

2A

pr-

15

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

Se

p-1

5O

ct-

15

Nov-1

5

Nigel Farage (satisfaction)


14 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NIGEL FARAGE IS DOING HIS JOB

AS LEADER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY?


33%

45%

21%

November 2015 March 2013 – November 2015

SATISFIED 33%

DISSATISFIED 45%

DON’T KNOW 21%

Net = -12

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Ma

r-1

3A

pr-

13

Ma

y-1

3Jun

-13

Jul-

13

Au

g-1

3S

ep-1

3O

ct-

13

Nov-1

3D

ec-1

3Jan

-14

Fe

b-1

4M

ar-

14

Ap

r-14

Ma

y-1

4Jun

-14

Jul-

14

Au

g-1

4S

ep-1

4O

ct-

14

Nov-1

4D

ec-1

4Jan

-15

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-15

2A

pr-

15

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

Se

p-1

5O

ct-

15

Nov-1

5

Nigel Farage (satisfaction)

Base: 71 UKIP supporters 18+, 14th – 17th November

N.B. small base size, indicative only.

15 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NIGEL FARAGE IS DOING HIS JOB

AS LEADER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY?


91%

9% 1%

November 2015 March 2013 – November 2015

SATISFIED 91%

DISSATISFIED 9%

DON’T KNOW 1%

Net = +82 Dissatisfied

Satisfied

ECONOMIC OPTIMISM

Economic Optimism Index


17 DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL

IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?


November 2015

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Fe

b-0

4

Se

p-0

4

Ap

r-05

No

v-0

5

Jul-

06

Ma

y-0

7

Jan

-08

Au

g-0

8

Ma

r-0

9

Oct-

09

Ma

y-1

0

Jan

-11

Au

g-1

1

Ma

r-1

2

Oct-

12

Ma

y-1

3

De

c-1

3

Jul-

14

Fe

b-1

5

Oct-

15

IMPROVE 31%

STAY THE SAME 25%

GET WORSE 40%

DON’T KNOW 4%

EOI = -9

The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index


18 DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL

IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?


-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Oct

19

97

Ma

y 1

99

8

De

c 1

998

Jul 19

99

Fe

b 2

000

Se

p 2

000

Ap

r 20

01

No

v 2

001

Jun

20

02

Jan

20

03

Au

g 2

003

Ma

r 2

00

4

Oct

20

04

Ma

y 2

00

5

De

c 2

005

Jul 20

06

Fe

b 2

007

Se

p 2

007

Ap

r 20

08

No

v 2

008

Jun

20

09

Jan

20

10

Au

g 2

010

Ma

r 2

01

1

Oct

20

11

Ma

y 2

01

2

De

c 2

012

Jul 20

13

Fe

b 2

014

Se

p 2

014

Ap

r 20

15

No

v 2

015

-9

THE ECONOMY AND THE CHANCELLOR

Will the government’s policies improve the economy?


20 ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS?


March 2012 March 2015

47% 46%

6%

47% 48%

5%

AGREE DISAGREE DON’T KNOW

IN THE LONG TERM, THIS GOVERNMENT’S POLICIES WILL IMPROVE THE STATE OF BRITAIN'S ECONOMY

39%

53%

7%

November 2015

35%

52%

13%

Satisfaction with George Osborne

21 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY GEORGE OSBORNE IS DOING HIS JOB

AS CHANCELLOR OF THE EXCHEQUER?


November 2015 June 2010 – November 2015

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Jun

-10

Ma

r-1

1

Dec-1

1

Ap

r-12

Ma

r-1

3

Ap

r-14

Ma

r-1

5

Jul-

15

Nov-1

5

BB = Before Budget

AB = After Budget

AAS = After Autumn Statement

BAS = Before Autumn Statement

BB

BB

BB

BB

BB

BB

AAS

AAS

BAS

AB BB

BB BAS

AB AB

AB SATISFIED 35%

DISSATISFIED 52%

DON’T KNOW 13%

Net =-17

Dissatisfied

Satisfied


0%

26%

19%

22%

0%

31%

37%

41%

0%

38%

38%

28%

0%

5%

6%

9%

Would Labour do a better job on the economy? AND DO YOU THINK THAT A LABOUR GOVERNMENT WITH JEREMY CORBYN AS PRIME MINISTER AND JOHN MCDONNELL AS

CHANCELLOR OF THE EXCHEQUER WOULD DO A BETTER OR WORSE JOB, OR ABOUT THE SAME, THAN THE PRESENT

GOVERNMENT HAS DONE AT MANAGING THE ECONOMY?


22


March 2013- Ed

Miliband and Ed Balls

March 2015- Ed

Miliband and Ed Balls

November 2015-

Jeremy Corbyn and

John McDonnell

BETTER JOB WORSE JOB ABOUT THE SAME DON’T KNOW

Which is the party of working people? WHICH POLITICAL PARTY, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK WOULD BE THE BEST AT LOOKING AFTER THE INTERESTS OF WORKING PEOPLE?


November 2015

CONSERVATIVE

LABOUR

UKIP

LIB DEM

OTHER

NONE

DON’T KNOW


23

25%

41%

5%

6%

5%

6%

12%

THE DEFICIT AND PUBLIC SPENDING

Will the government’s policies improve public

services?


25 ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS?


October 2013 March 2015

59%

35%

6%

56%

37%

6%

AGREE DISAGREE DON’T KNOW

IN THE LONG TERM, THIS GOVERNMENT’S POLICIES WILL IMPROVE BRITAIN’S PUBLIC SERVICES

August 2015

33%

60%

7%

67%

27%

5%

November 2015

Own view of spending cuts

26 WHICH ONE OF THESE, IF ANY, COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR OPINION ON CUTTING PUBLIC SPENDING TO REDUCE THE DEFICIT?

6%

1%

1%

27%

32%

34%

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th November

It is still necessary to reduce the deficit by

cutting public spending

It was necessary in the last parliament to

reduce the deficit by cutting public

spending, but it is not necessary any more

It was never necessary to reduce the deficit by cutting public spending

Other

Don't know

None of these

Different party supporters’ attitudes to cuts

15

34

51

21

47

28

39

36

16

9

24

63

It was never necessary to reduce thedeficit by cutting public spending

It was necessary in the last parliament toreduce the deficit by cutting public

spending, but it is not necessary any more

It is still necessary to reduce the deficit bycutting public spending

Con Lab LibDem UKIP%

27 WHICH ONE OF THESE, IF ANY, COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR OPINION ON CUTTING PUBLIC SPENDING TO REDUCE THE DEFICIT?

Source: Ipsos MORI Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th November

Getting the balance right WHICH PARTY, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK HAS THE BEST BALANCE BETWEEN CUTTING SPENDING TO REDUCE THE DEFICIT AND NOT DAMAGING PUBLIC SERVICES – THE CONSERVATIVES, LABOUR, LIBERAL DEMOCRATS, UKIP OR SOME OTHER PARTY?


24%

25%

7% 8%

8%

11%

17%

December 2014 November 2015

CONSERVATIVE

LABOUR

UKIP

LIB DEM

OTHER

NONE

DON’T KNOW


28

26%

27% 6%

12%

7%

8%

15%

Spending cuts


29 FROM WHAT YOU KNOW, DO YOU THINK THE GOVERNMENT HAS ON THE WHOLE MADE THE RIGHT DECISIONS OR THE WRONG DECISIONS ABOUT WHERE SPENDING CUTS SHOULD BE MADE?


March 2010 October 2010

55%

35%

10%

59%

33%

8%

38% 41%

21%

November 2015

RIGHT DECISIONS WRONG DECISIONS DON’T KNOW

59

36

19

15

8

5

3

3

4

1

1

3

5

9

55

44

28

10

8

5

4

3

2

1

9

7

Overseas aid

Benefit payments

Defence and armed forces

Transport

Local authority services

Social services

The NHS/Healthcare

Police

State pensions

Schools

Care for the elderly

Other

Don’t know

NoneNA

Areas where spending cuts should come from

30 IF THE GOVERNMENT WERE TO MAKE FURTHER CUTS IN SPENDING WHICH TWO OR THREE, IF ANY, OF THE FOLLOWING AREAS DO YOU THINK THE UK GOVERNMENT SHOULD CUT THE MOST MONEY FROM?


MARCH 2013 NOVEMBER 2015

NA

Different party supporters’ priorities for cuts

4

4

49

93

20

31

32

40

19

30

15

43

13

8

59

71

Transport


Benefit payments

Overseas aid


31 IF THE GOVERNMENT WERE TO MAKE FURTHER CUTS IN SPENDING WHICH TWO OR THREE, IF ANY, OF THE FOLLOWING AREAS DO YOU THINK THE UK GOVERNMENT SHOULD CUT THE MOST MONEY FROM?


73

39

28

27

23

14

13

8

5

4

2

1

3

1

The NHS/Healthcare

Schools



Police

State pensions

Social services

Benefit payments

Local authority services

Transport

Overseas aid

Other

Don’t know

None

Areas which should be protected from spending cuts

32 AND WHICH TWO OR THREE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK SHOULD BE MOST PROTECTED FROM CUTS?


Different party supporters’ priorities to protect from cuts

55

22

26

63

14

23

54

78

16

31

40

80

40

26

33

67



Schools

NHS/healthcare


33 AND WHICH TWO OR THREE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK SHOULD BE MOST PROTECTED FROM CUTS?


NEXT CONSERVATIVE LEADER

Next Conservative leader

35 AS YOU MAY KNOW, DAVID CAMERON HAS SAID THAT HE WILL STEP DOWN AS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY BEFORE THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION IN 2020. WHICH ONE OF THE FOLLOWING POLITICIANS I AM GOING TO READ OUT, IF ANY, WOULD MAKE YOU MOST LIKELY TO VOTE FOR THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY IF THEY WERE LEADER


8%

25%

4%

15%

17%

27%

9%

29%

3%

4%

11%

19%

25%

Don't know

None of these

Michael Gove

Sajid Javid

George Osborne

Theresa May

Boris Johnson

SEPTEMBER 2015 NOVEMBER 2015

Next Conservative leader amongst Conservative

supporters

36 AS YOU MAY KNOW, DAVID CAMERON HAS SAID THAT HE WILL STEP DOWN AS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY BEFORE THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION IN 2020. WHICH ONE OF THE FOLLOWING POLITICIANS I AM GOING TO READ OUT, IF ANY, WOULD MAKE YOU MOST LIKELY TO VOTE FOR THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY IF THEY WERE LEADER

Source: Ipsos MORI Base: 307 Conservative supporters 18+, 14th – 17th November

5%

7%

3%

32%

18%

29%

8%

6%

2%

3%

23%

26%

32%

Don't know

None of these

Michael Gove

Sajid Javid

George Osborne

Theresa May

Boris Johnson

SEPTEMBER 2015 NOVEMBER 2015

2015 POLITICAL MONITOR

ipsos mori political monitor: november 2015

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