ipsos mori political monitor september 2017

Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)

© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information

and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

1

Ipsos MORIPOLITICALMONITORSeptember

2017

3Political Monitor | July 2017| Final | Public

HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Base: 1,023 British adults 18+, 15th– 18th September 2017 ; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it

depends vote in General Elections = 810. Margin of error is displayed at +/- 4%

Voting Intention

ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTIONHEADLINE VOTING INTENTION

CONSERVATIVE LEAD = -5

CONSERVATIVE LEAD = -4

40%

44%

9%

2%

1%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

CONSERVATIVE

LABOUR

LIB DEM

UKIP

GREEN

39%

44%

8%

2%

3%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

CONSERVATIVE

LABOUR

LIB DEM

UKIP

GREEN


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

May 1

5

Jun

15

Jul 15

Au

g 1

5

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Jan

16

Feb

16

Mar

16

Ap

r 16

May 1

6

Jun

16

Jul 16

Au

g 1

6

Sep

16

Oct

16

No

v 1

6

Dec

16

Jan

17

Feb

17

Mar

17

Ap

r 17

May 1

7

Jun

17

Jul 17

Au

g 1

7

Sep

17

Corbyn

elected

(Sept 15)

May

as PM

(July 16)



Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote

and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections

Headline voting intention: Since 2015 General Election

2015 General Election

CONSERVATIVE LABOUR


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jan

04

Jul 04

Jan

05

Jul 05

Jan

06

Jul 06

Jan

07

Jul 07

Jan

08

Jul 08

Jan

09

Jul 09

Jan

10

Jul 10

Jan

11

Jul 11

Jan

12

Jul 12

Jan

13

Jul 13

Jan

14

Jul 14

Jan

15

Jul 15

Jan

16

Jul 16

Jan

17

Jul 17


Miliband

elected

(Sept 10)

Corbyn

elected

(Sept 15)

May

as PM

(July 16)



Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote

and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections

Headline voting intention: January ‘04 – September ‘17

2005 General Election 2010 General Election

Cameron

elected

(Dec 05)

Brown

as PM

(June 07)

CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM


SATISFACTION WITH THE

GOVERNMENT AND

PARTY LEADERS


ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/HER JOB

AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?

Theresa May

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,023 British adults 18+, 15th – 18th September 2017. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied

Satisfaction with leaders and the Government

30%

60%

9%

37%

54%

10%

43%

46%

10%

Jeremy Corbyn The Government

+4%swing from July 2017

-1%swing from July 2017

+3%swing from July 2017

-17 Net -3 Net -1 Net -30 Net

SATISFIED 37% SATISFIED 43% SATISFIED 30% SATISFIED 30%

DISSATISFIED 54% DISSATISFIED 46% DISSATISFIED 31% DISSATISFIED 60%

30%

31%

39%

Vince Cable


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER

/LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month.

Satisfaction with Party leaders Sept 2015 – Sept 2017

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Jan

16

Feb

16

Mar

16

Ap

r 16

May 1

6

Ju

n 1

6

Ju

l 16

Au

g 1

6

Sep

16

Oct

16

No

v 1

6

Dec

16

Jan

17

Feb

17

Mar

17

Ap

r 17

May 1

7

Ju

n 1

7

Ju

l 17

Au

g 1

7

Sep

17

MAY CORBYN CABLE

37%

43%

30%.


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME

MINISTER?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month

Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers

MAY CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER

Net

sati

sfact

ion

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

May

Number of months after becoming Prime Minister


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE …

PARTY?


Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1980 – 2017)

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

Hague (97-01) Duncan Smith (01-03) Howard (03-05) Cameron (05-10)

Blair (94-97) Miliband (10-15) Corbyn (15-present) Kinnock (83-92)

Foot (80-83) Smith (92-94)

Number of months after becoming Opposition Leader

Net

sati

sfact

ion

Corbyn


ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME

MINISTER?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,023 British adults 18+, 15th – 18th September 2017

Theresa May (satisfaction)

37%

54%

10%

September 2017 August 2016 – September 2017

SATISFIED 37%

DISSATISFIED 54%

DON’T KNOW 10%

Net = -17

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec-

16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar-

17

Ap

r-17

May-1

7

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Sep

-17

Dissatisfied

Satisfied


ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME

MINISTER?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 372 Conservative supporters 18+ , 15th – 18th September 2017

Theresa May (satisfaction amongst Conservative supporters)

70%

24%

5%

September 2017

SATISFIED 70%

DISSATISFIED 24%

DON’T KNOW 5%

Net = +46

August 2016 – September 2017

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec-

16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar-

17

Ap

r-17

May-1

7

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Sep

-17

Dissatisfied

Satisfied


43%

46%

10%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

rl-1

6

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec-

16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar-

17

Ap

r-17

May-1

7

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Sep

-17

SATISFIED 43%

DISSATISFIED 46%

DON’T KNOW 10%

Net = -3

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF

THE LABOUR PARTY?


Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)

September 2017 September 2015 – September 2017

Satisfied

Dissatisfied


73%

19%

8%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

rl-1

6

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec-

16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar-

17

Ap

r-17

May-1

7

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Sep

-17

SATISFIED 73%

DISSATISFIED 19%

DON’T KNOW 8%

Net = +54

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF

THE LABOUR PARTY?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 362 Labour supporters 18+, 15th – 18th September 2017

Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction amongst Labour supporters)

September 2017 September 2015 – September 2017

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

15Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public

30%

31%

39%SATISFIED 30%

DISSATISFIED 31%

DON’T KNOW 39%

Net = -1

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY VINCE CABLE IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE

LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?


Vince Cable (satisfaction)

September 2017

Base: 1,023 British adults 18+, 15th – 18th September 2017


ECONOMIC

OPTIMISM


21%

23%52%

4%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Jan

-07

Sep

-07

Ap

r-08

Oct

-08

Ap

r-09

Oct

-09

Ap

r-10

No

v-1

0

May-1

1

No

v-1

1

May-1

2

No

v-1

2

May-1

3

No

v-1

3

May-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ap

r-15

Dec-

15

Jun

-16

Dec-

16

Jul-

17

IMPROVE 21%

STAY THE SAME 23%

GET WORSE 52%

DON’T KNOW 4%

EOI = -31

DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE

SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?


Economic Optimism Index

September 2017





Economic Optimism has been on downward trend since

2014

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

No

v 1

997

Mar

1998

Jul 1998

No

v 1

998

Mar

1999

Jul 1999

No

v 1

999

Mar

2000

Jul 2000

No

v 2

000

Mar

2001

Jul 2001

No

v 2

001

Mar

2002

Jul 2002

No

v 2

002

Mar

2003

Jul 2003

No

v 2

003

Mar

2004

Jul 2004

No

v 2

004

Mar

2005

Jul 2005

No

v 2

005

Mar

2006

Jul 2006

No

v 2

006

Mar

2007

Jul 2007

No

v 2

007

Mar

2008

Jul 2008

No

v 2

008

Mar

2009

Jul 2009

No

v 2

009

Mar

2010

Jul 2010

No

v 2

010

Mar

2011

Jul 2011

No

v 2

011

Mar

2012

Jul 2012

No

v 2

012

Mar

2013

Jul 2013

No

v 2

013

Mar

2014

Jul 2014

No

v 2

014

Mar

2015

Jul 2015

No

v 2

015

Mar

2016

Jul 2016

No

v 2

016

Mar

2017

Jul 2017

-31



11%

17%

27%

21%

21%

18%

27%

17%

27%

17%

17%

15%

27%

27

23

29

36

14

21

29

31

29

27

24

27

26

62%

60%

44%

43%

65%

61%

44%

52%

44%

56%

59%

58%

47%

Scotland

Greater London

South (exc London)

Midlands

North (exc Scotland)

Renter

Owner

Mortgage

55+

35-54

18-34

Female

Male

Improve Get worse



Men, homeowners, over 55’s and Midlands/South are

less pessimistic



Age gap in economic optimism since EU

referendum continues

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Base: c. 1,000 British adults 18+ per month

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Jan

16

Feb

16

Mar

16

Ap

r 16

May 1

6

Jun

16

Jul 16

Au

g 1

6

Sep

16

Oct

16

No

v 1

6

Dec

16

Jan

17

Feb

17

Mar

17

Ap

r 17

May 1

7

Jun

17

Jul 17

Au

g 1

7

Sep

17

18-34 35-54 55+

Eco

no

mic

Op

tim

ism

In

dex

(Net

“im

pro

ve”)

-39-41

EU referendum

-18


Party Leaders


I AM GOING TO READ OUT SOME THINGS BOTH FAVOURABLE AND UNFAVOURABLE THAT HAVE BEEN

SAID ABOUT VARIOUS POLITICIANS. WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO ……?


Corbyn leads on honesty, personality, and less out of touch,

but May still ahead on capability and good in a crisis


36%

40%

66%

45%

36%

72%

21%

45%

49%

36%

28%

30%

32%

38%

40%

46%

47%

47%

52%

55%

More style than substance

Good in a crisis

Out of touch with ordinary people

Capable leader

Has sound judgement

Patriotic

Has got a lot of personality

Has a clear vision for Britain

Understands the problems facing Britain

More honest than most politicians

Corbyn May

23Political Monitor | September 2016 | Final | Public


SAID ABOUT VARIOUS POLITICIANS. WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO THERESA MAY?


May’s image ratings have worsened since last September

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month

62%

51%

46%

51%

64%

45%

41%

56%

76%

30%

68%

52%

56%

61%

43%

25%

37%

55%

75%

44%

45%

40%

36%

49%

66%

36%

21%

45%

72%

36%

Capable leader

Good in a crisis

Has sound judgement






Patriotic


Sep-17 Sep-16 Sep-15 (David Cameron)

24Political Monitor | September 2016 | Final | Public


SAID ABOUT VARIOUS POLITICIANS. WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO JEREMY

CORBYN?


Corbyn’s image ratings have improved since last September

32%

23%

32%

49%

39%

25%

41%

47%

37%

54%

24%

18%

30%

44%

44%

24%

32%

38%

49%

52%

38%

30%

40%

52%

32%

28%

47%

47%

46%

55%

Capable leader

Good in a crisis

Has sound judgement






Patriotic


Sep-17 Sep-16 Sep-15



WHICH OF THESE STATEMENTS COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR VIEWS OF… THERESA MAY AND THE

CONSERVATIVE PARTY?


May’s likeability ratings have fallen since Sept 2016

25%

13%

13%

43%

5%

May & the

Conservative Party

%

Sept

2017

Change

since Sept

2016

Total like her 38 -22

Total do not

like her 56 +23

Total like the

party 38 0

Total do not

like the

party 56 +1

I LIKE HER AND I

LIKE THE PARTY

I LIKE HER BUT I DO

NOT LIKE THE

PARTY

I DO NOT LIKE HER

BUT I LIKE THE

PARTY

I DO NOT LIKE HER

AND I DO NOT LIKE

THE PARTY

DON’T KNOW


WHICH OF THESE STATEMENTS COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR VIEWS OF… JEREMY CORBYN AND THE

LABOUR PARTY?


Corbyn and Labour party are more liked than a year ago

Corbyn & the Labour

Party

%

Sept

2017

Change

since Sept

2016

Total like him 46 +9

Total do not like

him 48 -6

Total like the party 54 +8

Total do not like

the party 40 -5

33%

13%21%

27%

5%

I LIKE HIM AND I

LIKE THE PARTY

I LIKE HIM BUT I DO

NOT LIKE THE

PARTY

I DO NOT LIKE HIM

BUT I LIKE THE

PARTY

I DO NOT LIKE HIM

AND I DO NOT LIKE

THE PARTY

DON’T KNOW



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Like Conservative leader Like Labour leader Like Conservative party Like Labour party

Likeability of leaders and their parties: 2007 - 2017

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each monthSource: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

WHICH OF THESE STATEMENTS COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR VIEWS OF… JEREMY CORBYN/THERESA MAY

AND THE LABOUR PARTY/THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY?


Brown

as PM

(June 07)


Corbyn

elected

(Sept 15)

May

as PM

(July 16)

Miliband

elected

(Sept 10)

28Political Monitor | July 2016 | Final | Public

PLEASE TELL ME TO WHAT EXTENT, IF AT ALL, YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING

STATEMENT:

THE XX PARTY SHOULD CHANGE ITS LEADER BEFORE THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION IN 2020


Just over four in ten think both parties should change

leader before the next election

29

31

16

12

16

12

17

20

21

23

2

2

Conservative

Labour

STRONGLY AGREE TEND TO AGREE

NEITHER AGREE

NOR DISAGREE TEND TO DISAGREE STRONGLY DISAGREE DON’T KNOW




STATEMENT:

THE LABOUR PARTY SHOULD CHANGE ITS LEADER BEFORE THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION IN 2020


Fewer want Labour to change its leader than in July ‘16

27

30

50

31

22

12

16

12

16

21

6

12

16

12

10

20

14

19

15

23

4

6

3

2

June 2014

October 2015

July 2016

September 2017


NEITHER AGREE





STATEMENT:

THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY SHOULD CHANGE ITS LEADER BEFORE THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION IN 2020


Similar number want the Conservatives to change their

leader compared to October 2015

14

30

29

13

12

16

21

21

16

21

12

17

26

19

21

4

6

2

June 2014

October 2015

September 2017


NEITHER AGREE



Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)

© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information

and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

31

Ipsos MORISeptember 2017 POLITICAL MONITOR

ipsos mori political monitor september 2017

News & Politics